Momentum

Nick Wheatley

Here is a final important issue to understand as we close our series on Marginal Gains. Momentum. Understanding momentum can offer a final marginal gain that can be very beneficial to you at key moments in a match.

I sometimes hear players say that a slow start isn't the end of the world when they are playing best of 3 full sets, they've got plenty of time to work their way back. What they fail to understand is they have made their task doubly difficult. First, they have to get the score back level, and if they manage that, then they have to find a way to win.

The Myth

There is a myth about momentum. Many people believe that if a player is behind and then levels the score that player then becomes a strong favorite to push on for the win. This seems even more likely to when the player levels the score more easily.

However, there is often big danger lurking for the player that levels the score. We've all seen score lines like 6-4, 1-6, 7-5. If you win the second set easily and presumably have the momentum, what does that really mean in terms of outcome?

I personally collected data of Top 100 ATP players in 2018 and 2019, where an easy set is defined as a 6-0 or 6-1 or 6-2.

In 2018, when a player won the first set but then lost an easy second set they still won the match 50% of the time. In 2019, that figure was about the same 48%. So the momentum their opponents allegedly had from winning a relatively easy second set only translated into an overall win around half of the time.

It's important to note that these are high level professionals, skilled at dealing with the endless ups and downs in matches. But for lower levels, having momentum can actually be dangerous if not fully understood.

I strongly believe the player who initially has the lead should always still hold the upper hand once the scores are level. Let's examine why this could be the case.

Humans are naturally wired to obtain satisfaction from success. But the satisfaction gained from recovering to 5-5 in a set from 2-5 down, could easily lead to a little lull of intensity during the next game, as we congratulate ourselves on the comeback, and perhaps expect that pushing on to win the set is now a formality.

Meanwhile, think of the opponent who has lost the 5-2 lead. As long as he hasn't imploded mentally, he will be extra determined at the start of the next game to stop the slide.

At 5-5, you therefore have one player who is determined and focused, against one player who may just have relaxed a little. Often, such sets are then won 7-5 by the player who had the 5-2 lead.

Making a comeback requires a period of continuous mental and physical effort. You're fighting to win those 3 games in a row, and at 5-5, the exertion of making the comeback can often then lead to a little slump in intensity due to the relative safety of the 5-5 score line compared to the danger of being 2-5 down.

This kind of mini comeback happens all the time in tennis. It could be 3-0 and then 3-3. It could 40-0 to deuce, or even 30-0 to 30-30. It might be a 1 set lead being cancelled out at 1 set all, or a tie-breaker that has gone from 6-3 to 6-6.

For the player who has lost the lead, there is a huge opportunity at these moments. Their opponent is only human, and no matter their awareness of the situation, they will find it a little harder to keep their foot on the gas.

I always tell my players to gain confidence and reassurance from this knowledge, and not to panic when they have been pegged back in the score. If the player who has lost the lead, can stay focused and positive, and stick to their game plan, they can often quite easily regain the lead straight away, and this awareness is another marginal gain.

The danger for the player who has just clawed the scores back to level should now be apparent, and if that's the situation you find yourself in, you must try and suppress any feelings of satisfaction with the comeback, and be aware to the danger that now lurks is an opponent who is ready to regain their lead straight away.

For more on momentum I recommend Alistair Higham's amazing series of articles on Tennisplayer. (Click Here to see the first one.)

So that's it for my series! (Click Here to find a list of all the articles.) Good luck applying the concept of marginal gains to your tennis game, and it would be great to hear of any success stories that have come from it.