First Strike Tennis:
A Four Shot Battle

Craig O'Shannessy

In the last article, we looked at the number of hits that determine points and found that in pro tennis, despite a limited number of rallies that can last over 20 balls, most points are decided by 4 hits—or less. It's 60 % or higher.

What wins? First strike tennis. A serve, or a serve plus one shot. A return, or a return plus one shot.

If you are still struggling to get your mind around that, let's look at some specific pro matches with players including Stan Wawrinka, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokoivic and Bernard Tomic.

Let's see how success in points of 4 hits or less determined what happened to these players at the Australian Open in 2015.

4 Shot Battle

In Australia in 2015, Stan Wawrinka had a really nice run to the semi-finals. He won five matches before losing to Novak Djokovic. The table below outlines Stan's performance in those first 5 matches.

66% percent of his total points were 4 hits or less. So by far the largest majority of the points Stan played were first strike points.

Why did Stan get to the semis? Because in this key category that composes most of the points, he was +33. He won 33 more points than he lost in first strike tennis.

Note also that another 25 percent of the total points were 5 to 8 shots. And Stan did well there too at +17. That totals over 90% of all points—8 hits or less-again with the large majority 4 hits or less.

You may think Stan is always at the back hammering forehands and backhands into the middle of next week in long, grinding rallies. And he is – it just that this is only 9% of the time.

Novak Takes Over

And then Stan went five sets with Novak in the semis and lost– completely running out of gas mentally and emotionally in the 5th set. So where did Novak have the edge in this match?

Let's look at numbers from Stan's point of view. His first strike points went severely negative. In just this one match he was -13. In the longer 5-8 shot rallies where he had also had a big edge, he was negative again at -2.

The only place he stayed with Novak with in the rallies of 9 shots or more. Those points were dead even. So battling Novak to a standstill in the long rallies did him no good whatsoever.

Once again the first strike points determined the outcome. Novak simply beat Stan up in this key category.

What I am presenting here is a completely different way to evaluate winning and losing. Instead of blaming strokes, we are evaluating is the length of the rally and the direct, determinate effect it has on outcome. What I am asking you is to open your mind to a new way of evaluating a match.

And for Rafa?

Rafa made the quarter finals that same tournament in Australia in 2015, winning four matches. Here are the numbers he put up from the matches he won.

Rafa played by far away the majority of his points in First Strike mode. 65% of them. Notice this total First Strike point percentage was virtually identical to Stan. And like Stan's in his winning matches, Rafa was in positive 4 strike territory in the matches he won at +22.

And note this! Rafa actually played slightly fewer 5 to 8 shot points than Stan! 22% for Rafa versus 25% for Stan.

True Rafa was tremendously effective when points were in that range at +49 for four matches. But look at rallies of 9 shots or more.

Rafa is supposedly the king of extended rallies. But they comprised only 13% of his total points in the matches he won. And guess what? He lost more of them than he won.

So put another whenever Rafa played three points, two were first strike points, and one was longer. Again, 2 out 3 of Rafa's points went on for 4 hits—or less.

Berdych

But the good numbers didn't last for Rafa in the quarterfinals. Rafa ran into a buzzsaw. Tomas Berdych really gave it to him!

Where did Rafa really lose the match? Tomas beat Rafa down in First Strike tennis.

Rafa lost 23 more points than he won in First Strike points. And he was also negative in 5 to 8 shot rallies. And only broke even in the 9 shot or more rallies.

The conclusion? Dominating a big pool of points is where it's all at. All of the long rallies that Rafa wanted to play to find an advantage came down to zero. He won the same amount he lost.

Once again, the real battle ground was First Strike tennis. Our eyes may see the long rallies. But the math tells the truth.

One More: Bernard Tomic

And one more example. Bernard had a solid tournament, making the fourth round, before also losing to Tomas Berdych. Let's have a look at how Bernie went about his business in the three matches he won.

Tomic played 72% first strike points in the first three rounds. He was +47 in the 3 matches on the 0-4 shot points.

Compare that to his loss to Berdych in 3 straight sets. In only 3 sets he was -15 in First Strike points. Huge, huge difference and it definitely determined the outcome.

Starting to see a pattern?

Extended Rallies are not where you win or lose. Know the biggest pool of points by far is in the first 4 shots. That's where you will ultimately win or ultimately lose.

And, again, this is how you should train, by focusing on the first 4 shots. Serve and Serve plus 1. The Return and the Return +1 groundstroke. Ideally the +1 shot is hit aggressively from around the baseline.

You might say, OK I now believe that First Strike Tennis is key in the pro game. But could that possibly apply at other levels?

How about high school tennis for example? Stay tuned for an amazing story about one of the winningest high school programs in the country.