Isner Breaks Down The Turin Contenders

[jimlosaltos]

This isn't exactly a TPN-style technical analysis. On the other hand, when a server like Isner opines on other top players, it might be of interest.
ATP article: "Isner Breaks Down The Turin Contenders"

Excerpts:
* Alexander Zverev (688 aces, 77% first-service points won)

Isner says, "It's all a confidence thing. A lot of it is very, very mental. In my opinion he's got a very pure motion, but we have seen him double fault a lot in the past and he's taken a lot of heat for that. But right now, he doesn't seem to be doing that at all. I've played him where he's not thinking about his second serve at all. Of course, he's going after his first serve. When he's doing that he's one of the toughest players in the world.
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When "He's serving consistently at over 70 per cent first serve and if he does that, there's maybe one or two players that could possibly beat him - Djokovic, maybe Medvedev. When he's confident on his serve, everything else behind it is so solid. He's very tough. He showed that in Vienna."

* Stefanos Tsitsipas (475 aces, 76% first-service points won)

After suffering a leg injury in the latter part of the 2020 season, Tsitsipas refined his serve and has compiled 50+ match wins for the second time in three years.

“His serve's a little bit different. He's a guy that his toss gets behind him a little bit. I don't necessarily like that, but he's made it work because he serves incredibly well. I think his first-serve percentage has improved a lot this year.

* Matteo Berrettini (609 aces, 79% first-service points won)

Isner says, "He's a guy, of all the players who have qualified, where the first thing you talk about is his serve. Berrettini has an incredible first serve, one of the top five first serves in the game

He's got a live arm. I like his motion. Just one of those guys. The ball goes up and he just pops it. He's just got this super live arm that some people are blessed with. He's got the ability to hit a serve in the high 130s [mph]. It's a huge weapon."

* Andrey Rublev (489 aces, 76% first-service points won)

"He can hit his spots on his serves, but he's not going to serve 130mph. He might get it 125 [mph], but all he needs is to be on the offence just a little bit. He always seizes that opportunity to go on his front foot and go after the ball, [and] really go after his groundstrokes.

* Daniil Medvedev (599 aces, 78% first-service points won)

Isner: "He goes after a lot of big second serves, so he's got a lot of confidence with that shot. I think that's one thing we've seen him improve also over the last few years.”

* Novak Djokovic (2021 Infosys ATP Stats: 420 aces, 76% first-service points won)

“He's actually someone who's definitely improved his serve as his career has gone on,” says Isner. Hiring Goran Ivanisevic is a big part of that.

He has a lot more confidence to go for big second serves and he's winning a lot more free points on his serve.

#

[stotty]

Notable that all the players have a similar percentage of first-service points won, with faster serves offering a slightly higher percentage. It will be interesting to see how those stats stand up when the they all play each other in Turin. I imagine Berrettini's 79% might come down a bit.

[stroke]

Isner really seems to know his stuff ha.

[don_budge]

[jimlosaltos]

Notable that all the players have a similar percentage of first-service points won, with faster serves offering a slightly higher percentage. It will be interesting to see how those stats stand up when the they all play each other in Turin. I imagine Berrettini's 79% might come down a bit.

For Turin WTF specifically, we don't know how the surface will play, nor the balls (at least I don't). So, that will be a big variable. London O2 went from glacially slow (so slow Fed was scolding at the court) to pretty quick, near Shanghai levels. But this is a new venue.

Update: Nitto is using the Dunlop's from ATP Tour, so presumably thick felt like ala Penn Tours.

[jimlosaltos]

Isner really seems to know his stuff ha.

What's the basketball phrase?: "You can't coach height."

Interesting that Isner focuses so heavily on percent of first serves made. The stat guru that generated some of ATP stat graphics I've shared, VestigeDuJour, claims there is zero correlation with first serve percent in -- the correlation instead is with first serve points won. I assume that is within some reasonable range that doesn't include Sara Errani. {Don't ask: He plots Markov chains for a living <g> }

Another stat guy that is perhaps less equation oriented, Craig O'Shannessy of ATP and Braingame claims 60% first serves in is an ideal target.

I don't have a dog in this hunt, but find the different views of interest.

[stroke]

What's the basketball phrase?: "You can't coach height."

Interesting that Isner focuses so heavily on percent of first serves made. The stat guru that generated some of ATP stat graphics I've shared, VestigeDuJour, claims there is zero correlation with first serve percent in -- the correlation instead is with first serve points won. I assume that is within some reasonable range that doesn't include Sara Errani. {Don't ask: He plots Markov chains for a living <g> }

Another stat guy that is perhaps less equation oriented, Craig O'Shannessy of ATP and Braingame claims 60% first serves in is an ideal target.

I don't have a dog in this hunt, but find the different views of interest.

Me too

[glacierguy]

This isn't exactly a TPN-style technical analysis. On the other hand, when a server like Isner opines on other top players, it might be of interest.
ATP article: "[B]Isner Breaks Down The Turin Contenders"

* Andrey Rublev (489 aces, 76% first-service points won)

"He can hit his spots on his serves, but he's not going to serve 130mph. He might get it 125 [mph], but all he needs is to be on the offence just a little bit. He always seizes that opportunity to go on his front foot and go after the ball, [and] really go after his groundstrokes.

#

A remarkably accurate quote, given Rublev's destruction of Stephanopoulos Tsitsipas last night. First the serve - at one point in the first set he had averaged 125mph on 19 first serves in out of 20. Second, he ripped his forehand at every opportunity, often pinning Tsitsipas in his backhand corner until Rublev made a forehand inside out winner. It was a phenomenal performance.