ATP Paths to number One (& An American in Paris, er Italy)

[jimlosaltos]

Three men have a chance to end the year ranked number one in the world, depending on how matches go as the ATP Tour Finals moves from London to Turin, Italy with play starting Sunday, November 13th.
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A) Carlos Alcaraz, the current world number one, has withdrawn from the event with an abdominal injury. {This opened a slot for Taylor Fritz, so there will be an American man in the Tour Final for the first time since ... forever.). Carlos will hold onto his ranking if neither of the next two sequences of events happens.

B) Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has already won a Tour Final title, will need to go 5-0 to end the year as the world number one.

C) Rafael Nadal, can add another year-end number one if Rafa wins the title OR he finishes as runner-up with a 4-1 record AND Tsitsipas does not go 5-0, according to the ATP. I don't know how Tsitsipas can go 5-0 without winning, but it's not worth my cycles to decipher that for them <g>. For what it's worth, Rafa didn't look very engaged at last week's Paris event, wasn't sharp at the Laver Cup either, might not be fully healthy, and might be more interested spending the holidays with his wife and their new child than swinging his Babolat.

[stotty]

Three men have a chance to end the year ranked number one in the world, depending on how matches go as the ATP Tour Finals moves from London to Turin, Italy with play starting Sunday, November 13th.
.

A) Carlos Alcaraz, the current world number one, has withdrawn from the event with an abdominal injury. {This opened a slot for Taylor Fritz, so there will be an American man in the Tour Final for the first time since ... forever.). Carlos will hold onto his ranking if neither of the next two sequences of events happens.

B) Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has already won a Tour Final title, will need to go 5-0 to end the year as the world number one.

C) Rafael Nadal, can add another year-end number one if Rafa wins the title OR he finishes as runner-up with a 4-1 record AND Tsitsipas does not go 5-0, according to the ATP. I don't know how Tsitsipas can go 5-0 without winning, but it's not worth my cycles to decipher that for them <g>. For what it's worth, Rafa didn't look very engaged at last week's Paris event, wasn't sharp at the Laver Cup either, might not be fully healthy, and might be more interested spending the holidays with his wife and their new child than swinging his Babolat.

Interesting....

Rafa became disinterested in the final set against Tommy Paul. He nearly hatched out victory in that second set and worked all out to get it, but once he failed he seemed to resign himself to losing, which is extremely rare for him. I couldn't work out whether he felt his form just wasn't where it needed to be at that point or he had just gotten a little fed up with playing.

Be great if Carlos ends up the year number one. He deserves it.

[jimlosaltos]

Interesting....

Rafa became disinterested in the final set against Tommy Paul. He nearly hatched out victory in that second set and worked all out to get it, but once he failed he seemed to resign himself to losing, which is extremely rare for him. I couldn't work out whether he felt his form just wasn't where it needed to be at that point or he had just gotten a little fed up with playing.

Be great if Carlos ends up the year number one. He deserves it.

Yes, Carlos certainly seems the most deserving overall ...

As for Rafa vs Paul, I did NOT watch that one but a friend that did said he thought Rafa came up lame. Just sharing, I have no dog in this fight <g>.

{On second thought, I'd kind of like Tsitisipas to surprise. Fun to watch, offensive, works hard. And shucks it would just stir things up <g> }

[stotty]

One thing we have at the moment is two players with no fear and plenty of belief: Rune and Alcaraz. Not sure if Stephanos truly believed he was going to defeat Novak last week, but with Rune you got the feeling he felt he could. Alcaraz probably believes he can beat Novak too. The tide is likely about to turn. I'd give Novak another year or possibly 18 months and Rafa another 6 months, then it will be over.

What gives me belief that Rune and Alcaraz could be better than the rest of the field is that while they can be really offensive, and that's essential, they can also defend very well also. Ironically, what will be the separator between today's ultra aggressive players will be those amongst them who can defend the better than the rest.

[jimlosaltos]

One thing we have at the moment is two players with no fear and plenty of belief: Rune and Alcaraz. Not sure if Stephanos truly believed he was going to defeat Novak last week, but with Rune you got the feeling he felt he could. Alcaraz probably believes he can beat Novak too. The tide is likely about to turn. I'd give Novak another year or possibly 18 months and Rafa another 6 months, then it will be over.

What gives me belief that Rune and Alcaraz could be better than the rest of the field is that while they can be really offensive, and that's essential, they can also defend very well also. Ironically, what will be the separator between today's ultra aggressive players will be those amongst them who can defend the better than the rest.

Ah, the bravery of youth with nothing to lose and nowhere to go but up! <g>

Defend probably includes returning serve, but I'd add that as it's own category anyways.

Alcaraz is a tremendous returner. Stef's return of serve is (IMHO) by far his greatest liability.

Sinner is a great returner (I'd say that's how he beat Alcaraz and Wimbledon and then weeks later again).

Rune, I'm not sure about from an admittedly small sample. He left a lot of unreturned serves on the table despite beating Djokovic. And that wasn't on a fast court. Was good at being aggressive in his semi vs FAA, but not so much in the finals IMHO.

[stotty]

Ah, the bravery of youth with nothing to lose and nowhere to go but up! <g>

Defend probably includes returning serve, but I'd add that as it's own category anyways.

Alcaraz is a tremendous returner. Stef's return of serve is (IMHO) by far his greatest liability.

Sinner is a great returner (I'd say that's how he beat Alcaraz and Wimbledon and then weeks later again).

Rune, I'm not sure about from an admittedly small sample. He left a lot of unreturned serves on the table despite beating Djokovic. And that wasn't on a fast court. Was good at being aggressive in his semi vs FAA, but not so much in the finals IMHO.

I think the best barometer for Rune is his match with Novak. Novak is the gold standard after all and probably still the best player in the world in most people's eyes. Novak is a good placer when it comes to serving and Rune didn't have answers much of the time against Novak's first serve. Rune's return of serve is perhaps something to keep an eye on for its consistency and effectiveness.

The most notable thing about the match was the chances Novak had to shut the door on Rune and win the match. He didn't seize them and Rune lifted the trophy. It's usually the other way round.

[jimlosaltos]

The most notable thing about the match was the chances Novak had to shut the door on Rune and win the match. He didn't seize them and Rune lifted the trophy. It's usually the other way round.

Oh, absolutely ! Rune was clutch all week. We can debate tactics, examine technique, put a stopwatch on foot speed, but some players simply do extraordinary things on big points. Rune saved 3 MPs vs Stan, again vs Novak and saved 10 of 12 BPs in the final.

That's an "it factor".