Paris Masters Begins

[stroke]

Rune upped his numbers on 2nd set, more winners than Novak, equal on errors. 3rd set will determine.

[stotty]

Rune well on top now. Novak lapsed exactly as he did against Stef...a complete carbon copy. You get the impression Rune really believes he can does this.

[stroke]

Novak turns screws to break to go up 3-1 in 3rd after a "reckless" double fault to give Novak the game.

[stotty]

Well, rune breaks right back. Great game...entertaining. Rune looks favourite at this point. He's a very good defender by the way.

[stroke]

Novak just so tough. Looks like a guy that has won 38 Masters 1000's. Rune definitely giving up more court in a defensive position than I have seen him.

[stroke]

Rune earns it, the numbers show what it took to take down Novak.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/rzfhv7bBB27brDJ48

[stotty]

Great win for Rune. Great defensive skills coupled with great aggression. He has lovely feel on his backhand wing. He moves so well and has big match qualities. Novak needed to be braver in that final furlong. He was too conservative against a powerful player with belief.

Rune didn't seem as bad as the press he's been given.

Best thing about Rune is there are things he can improve on and he undoubtedly will.

[jimlosaltos]

Here are the top level stats. A bit like Djokovic's win yesterday where he won most every point category but barely eeked out a win vs Tsitispas.

Dare I say it, a bit late career Federer-like leaving all those break points on the table.

Let's see if I can resize this to fit the TPN forum limits ....

Djokovic 0-3 on saving break points while 2-12 converting them on Rune's serve.

On serve, Djoko was tops in everything except first serve points won. A stat guy says that has higher correlation with victory than in% or win%. One data point confirming that today.

filedata/fetch?id=99019&d=1667755067&type=thumb

[jimlosaltos]

Rune beat five (5) Top 10 players this week, has won 19 of his past 21 matches, and played in his fourth consecutive final.

That's the definition of a hot streak. All of a sudden, the 19 yo is number 10 in the world.

By his own admission, there was some good fortune involved. He could easily have lost in the first round where he had to save, I think it was, 3 MPs vs Stan. In the final, Rune was down love-40 in the first game of the second set, but came back, then saved 6 break points in the final game -- and 10 of 12 break points in the match. World number one, Carlos Alcaraz did not play well from the start, struggling with an abdominal injury that forced him to not only retire from the match but shut down for the season, withdrawing from the Turin World Tour finals.

But match after match, Rune won the big points, in particular today.

His Paris Open Run:

Opponent's Rank / match score to Rune

R8 Djokovic 3-6, 6-3, 7-5
R6 FAA 6-4, 6-2
R1 Alcaraz 6-3, 6-6 (RET)
R7 Rublev 6-4, 7-5
R11 Hurkacz 7-5, 6-1
R157 Wawrinka 4-6, 7-5, 7-6 (3)


~~~~~~~~


P.S. For your amusement when I typed the rank I used a # for number and the hashtags caused them to convert into this auto text <g>

Private Messages Djokovic 3-6, 6-3, 7-5
Special FAA 6-4, 6-2
Home Alcaraz 6-3, 6-6 (RET)
Visitor Messages Rublev 6-4, 7-5
#11 Hurkacz 7-5, 6-1
Extend the shot or just rotate your forearm Wawrinka 4-6, 7-5, 7-6 (3)

#

[stroke]

Great stuff Jim thanks. I would put Rune as my number 4 favorite right now at FO. Novak still favorite at AO and RG I am sure.

[stotty]

Great stats from Jim as always. But I am going to ignore them as the root cause of Novak's defeat.

Rune defended so well. I am not sure anyone thought he had that in him. Novak failed to use enough width most of the time and when he did Rune was sitting so deep he could track most of Novak's shots down...Rune blanketed the court. If in those spells Novak had used the drop shot, Rune would have been a sitting duck. That's unusual for Novak who most times overplays the drop shot. By set three Rune wasn't even bothering to cover it. Novak could have won that match but failed tactically in my view. It became a match of small margins where little things change the outcome.

[jimlosaltos]

Great stats from Jim as always. But I am going to ignore them as the root cause of Novak's defeat.

Rune defended so well. I am not sure anyone thought he had that in him. Novak failed to use enough width most of the time and when he did Rune was sitting so deep he could track most of Novak's shots down...Rune blanketed the court. If in those spells Novak had used the drop shot, Rune would have been a sitting duck. That's unusual for Novak who most times overplays the drop shot. By set three Rune wasn't even bothering to cover it. Novak could have won that match but failed tactically in my view. It became a match of small margins where little things change the outcome.

Very interesting (& damned by faint praise <g> ). I've only seen a handful of Rune's matches, but I was quite surprised by how far back he moved vs Novak after hugging or being inside the baseline in what I saw in all of his earlier wins.

Despite moving back, from stroke's Tennis TV stats, Rune hit 43 winners, which is 9 more than Djokovic, with the difference coming on the backhand wing where Rune was 17 to 6 (if I'm reading that right, a bit tough). So, still the aggressor event absent the assertive court position?

[jimlosaltos]

Here's a peculiarity. Djokovic won more total points, despite Rune winning more points from the baseline, and more points at the net, while Novak won a higher percentage of his service points. Again, I'll repeat vestige-du-jours' statistical analysis that total points won on serve has a higher correlation with winning a match than first serve percent in, or first serve points won %.

P.S. I was looking to clarify the backhand stats from stroke's post. There Rune had 11 more winners, and a positive +/- of 7 while Novak had only 6 winners and a negative +/- of -4 ! Beat Novak decisively on the backhand? Surely the end is nigh

filedata/fetch?id=99026&d=1667760354&type=thumb

[stotty]

So, still the aggressor event absent the assertive court position?

I am not faulting Rune, whose blend of attack and defence was superb. He got a little rash at times but otherwise it was a terrific display. It's just Novak missed a tactical trick as Rune started to opt to defend more and more deep as the third set wore on. The drop shot suddenly became key for Novak. I also thought Novak was conservative and a little tight. At his best he uses great width and moves the ball around beautifully. Today too much of his play was quite central under pressure. He had to use more width and bring the drop shot into play.

I felt Novak lost his nerve too, which often spells the beginning of the end.

Just my two cents. Others may well see it differently.

[jimlosaltos]

Just my two cents. Others may well see it differently.

Worth at least a Benjamin, or may be a Bitcoin <g>. Thanks for sharing.