Roland Garros Update

[jimlosaltos]

I tuned in briefly (it's a forgone conclusion so have little interest) and timed Rafa at 33 and 35 seconds between points when serving. I think the rule is 25 seconds. He is so darn good to start with what chance does Ruud have if the umpire gives Rafa all the recuperation time he needs after the longer rallies. I give up. This will never get sorted out.

Yup. It's unfair to allow one player to break the rules. That simple.

Rafa uses it to control the tempo, and put him in charge of the pace of the game. Shouldn't be allowed. Same with his stalling on service returns. The most blatant example I recall is Rafa literally "vetoing" an ace by Kyrgios in Acapulco, I believe it was. Rafa was ready, Nick served an outright ace, but Rafa raised his hand after Nick had already started his toss, so the chair called time after the ace was hit.

The tennis bureaucracy can fix that quite simply - put a "real" shot clock on the court, not make it subject for the chair. When the ball kids collect all the balls to the server's end, the clock starts -- and should give less than 25 sec, by the way. Every other sport can do that. In the NBA, it doesn't matter if you're LeBron James, you've got 5 seconds to inbounds the the ball and 24 sec to shoot. The refs don't give stars more time to shoot and the crowds would be irate if they did. The NFL doesn't let Tom Brady take a 1 minute in the huddle with the other team has to get a snap off in 35 seconds.

Tennis has a number of areas where it needs to "become a grown up sport"

[jimlosaltos]

Despite objecting to Rafa's stalling tactics, which I'd call poor sportsmanship, hats off to him. Great, great player. Great athlete. And seems like a good guy. Rafa was heartbroken for Zverev; it showed.

As for the final, Rafa was fortunate that Zverev was injured. At the rate their semi was going -- 3 hours and 11 minutes for less than 2 sets -- and with Zverev's tendency to play long five setters, that match could easily have gone past 6 hours.

Imagine what a 6 hour semi comprising long, grinding points would have done to Rafa's bad, already hurting, foot.

[jimlosaltos]

I pulled some velocity stats from the RG site for a handful of players.

You might find this of interest. Obviously, speed isn't everything because Rafa won and he doesn't have the top number in any category -- except 14 trophies.

I highlighted the highest speed in each column in Red, for both ATP and WTA. In "Average Forehand" Felix AA has the top at 77 mph average, but I also included the cluster at 76, to illustrate that clustering.

Note: These are mostly "Averages". While our human tendency is to say that 77 is better than 76, the variance from match to match for any given player at the same tournament can be 2-3 mph. Someone that plays at night, or against a slower or faster hitting opponent can see their numbers go up and down. Matches in early rounds were not recorded, and some matches were ignored because of the stadium they were in, presumably because of lack of Hawkeye. As for the few "Highs", their system only shows "Winners", so there is no point in trying to be definitive. A player's "Fastest" shot might not be a winner. So, I grabbed some that seemed representative. Unlike Roland Garro's stats last year, this year's set does NOT distinguish amongst groundstrokes. Last year, the system showed whether a shot was a forehand, backhand, volley etc. Now, it is just a "Winner". Presumably, a "Winner" that lands outside the service box is not a serve. I offer no guarantees Your mileage may vary.

Some things that pop out to me: Most everything is clustered, amongst this group, but Zverev's velocity stands out. as does Cilic's In fact, Cilic's backhand averaged faster than any player's forehand, except FAA's. On the WTA side, I did not realize Paula Badosa was among the biggest hitters. Also Chinese 19 year old, Qinwen Zheng stands out. I hadn't even heard of her.

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[stroke]

I would be very interested in Nadal's and Ruud's forehand average spin rates. Never saw any numbers the entire match. It certainly is clear to me no one bends/swerves the forehand like Nadal, but in the past, Ruud's forehand spin rates compare favorably to Nadal. I think the rpm spin rate is the the more telling forehand stat. They all hit plenty of mph's.

[arturohernandez]

Bob Lefsitz writes that music used to be about the artists. Now you don’t make it without using tik tok to advertise. Are we seeing the same thing? Everyone wants to be like Rafa. It will get you to the top. I spend the whole time watching someone play like Rafa wishing there were someone who dared to be different.

If Everyone goes corporate and attends the same academy, how can anyone be different?

can someone please open a s&v chip and charge academy?

then at least it would be interesting to watch tennis. Right now it feels like every young player is the same.

[stotty]

Great stats from Jim. The spin rates and shot velocity cannot really be interpreted from the TV. Everyone seems to be hitting a the same pace but in reality they aren't. Novak and Rafa don't hit nearly as hard as some.

I didn't watch the final other than tuning in for 10 minutes to watch Rafa stake an age to serve after some longer rallies. He was playing superbly well, though, and to make matters worse for Ruud, Rafa had luck rolling his way too in the 10 minutes I watched.

Sure, Rafa's forehand is great...the best ever. But for me the most significant part of Rafa's success is his left-handed serve to the ad court. It is extremely difficult to break his serve because he swings it wide really well, and winning the ad point to break his serve presents a mini mountain to climb in itself. I dread to think how many long, long service games Rafa has eventually won because of that wide serve, which is immediately backed up by his hoofing forehand. The combination of that serve and his forehand to the ad court has got him out of many a hole I can tell you.

[stroke]

Great stats from Jim. The spin rates and shot velocity cannot really be interpreted from the TV. Everyone seems to be hitting a the same pace but in reality they aren't. Novak and Rafa don't hit nearly as hard as some.

I didn't watch the final other than tuning in for 10 minutes to watch Rafa stake an age to serve after some longer rallies. He was playing superbly well, though, and to make matters worse for Ruud, Rafa had luck rolling his way too in the 10 minutes I watched.

Sure, Rafa's forehand is great...the best ever. But for me the most significant part of Rafa's success is his left-handed serve to the ad court. It is extremely difficult to break his serve because he swings it wide really well, and winning the ad point to break his serve presents a mini mountain to climb in itself. I dread to think how many long, long service games Rafa has eventually won because of that wide serve, which is immediately backed up by his hoofing forehand. The combination of that serve and his forehand to the ad court has got him out of many a hole I can tell you.

No doubt. I am not eager to bring up the GOAT discussion again, but at this point to me Fed, the easiest on the eye player ever, the guy most of us in our dreams would like to play like, is #3. Nadal, with his greatest achievement in all of sports(14 FO's)and 22 GS titles, and his astonishing Master 1000's results, is #1. Novak, with his 20 GS's, his even more impressive Master 1000's titles, and his weeks at #1, is #2. That leave Roger at #3,. Just my opinion.

It is something, as I thought when Fed beat Nadal in that incredible 2017 AO final, I thought Fed had put a fork in this discussion.

[stroke]

Stotty alluded to Nadals swerve serve to the ad court. No doubt, lefties have an advantage here as that is often on ad or break points on that side. I can think only one other player who gets the swerve/swing on his serve as Nadal, Giles Mueller. Giles serve was better, but he had nothing close to the Nadal forehand to finish the job.

[stotty]

I pulled some velocity stats from the RG site for a handful of players.

You might find this of interest. Obviously, speed isn't everything because Rafa won and he doesn't have the top number in any category -- except 14 trophies.

I highlighted the highest speed in each column in Red, for both ATP and WTA. In "Average Forehand" Felix AA has the top at 77 mph average, but I also included the cluster at 76, to illustrate that clustering.

Note: These are mostly "Averages". While our human tendency is to say that 77 is better than 76, the variance from match to match for any given player at the same tournament can be 2-3 mph. Someone that plays at night, or against a slower or faster hitting opponent can see their numbers go up and down. Matches in early rounds were not recorded, and some matches were ignored because of the stadium they were in, presumably because of lack of Hawkeye. As for the few "Highs", their system only shows "Winners", so there is no point in trying to be definitive. A player's "Fastest" shot might not be a winner. So, I grabbed some that seemed representative. Unlike Roland Garro's stats last year, this year's set does NOT distinguish amongst groundstrokes. Last year, the system showed whether a shot was a forehand, backhand, volley etc. Now, it is just a "Winner". Presumably, a "Winner" that lands outside the service box is not a serve. I offer no guarantees Your mileage may vary.

Some things that pop out to me: Most everything is clustered, amongst this group, but Zverev's velocity stands out. as does Cilic's In fact, Cilic's backhand averaged faster than any player's forehand, except FAA's. On the WTA side, I did not realize Paula Badosa was among the biggest hitters. Also Chinese 19 year old, Qinwen Zheng stands out. I hadn't even heard of her.

filedata/fetch?id=97594&d=1654451490&type=thumb

Interesting how slow Ruud's backhand is..and FAA's. Second serves seem to quite slow looking at the table and may back up Tim Henman's theory that second serves have gotten slower over the years and not quicker.

[jimlosaltos]

I would be very interested in Nadal's and Ruud's forehand average spin rates. Never saw any numbers the entire match. It certainly is clear to me no one bends/swerves the forehand like Nadal, but in the past, Ruud's forehand spin rates compare favorably to Nadal. I think the rpm spin rate is the the more telling forehand stat. They all hit plenty of mph's.

Thanks.

Never found averages on spin this year and aggregating those numbers for "winners" is extraordinaryily tedious. But back when I did that last year Ruud was higher than Rafa but with less velocity. That's what I found in InfoSys, I can't guarantee reliable projections from them.

[jimlosaltos]

Stotty alluded to Nadals swerve serve to the ad court. No doubt, lefties have an advantage here as that is often on ad or break points on that side. I can think only one other player who gets the swerve/swing on his serve as Nadal, Giles Mueller. Giles serve was better, but he had nothing close to the Nadal forehand to finish the job.

A rule change I'd like is that, on ad points, returner can pick the side. Would even out the unfair lefty advantage a bit. One can dream.

[jimlosaltos]

No doubt. I am not eager to bring up the GOAT discussion again, but at this point to me Fed, the easiest on the eye player ever, the guy most of us in our dreams would like to play like, is #3. Nadal, with his greatest achievement in all of sports(14 FO's)and 23 GS titles, and his astonishing Master 1000's results, is #1. Novak, with his 21 GS's, his even more impressive Master 1000's titles, and his weeks at #1, is #2. That leave Roger at #3,. Just my opinion.

It is something, as I thought when Fed beat Nadal in that incredible 2017 AO final, I thought Fed had put a fork in this discussion.

Dare I say you suffer from "recency bias". Sorry. I simply had to

[glacierguy]

George Best career trophies: 1 European Cup, 2 Division One Championships

[stroke]

Dare I say you suffer from "recency bias". Sorry. I simply had to

I certainly could, who knows

[stroke]

Odds for 2023 FO winner: Novak and Alcaraz at +162, Nadal is 3rd favorite at +250. I guess the oddsmakers think it would be difficult for someone to win 15 FO's.