Miami Open, Master's 1000

[jimlosaltos]

Medvedev was playing with a hernia and has just taken 1-2 months off for surgery and rehab.

[stroke]

Medvedev was playing with a hernia and has just taken 1-2 months off for surgery and rehab.

He definitely looked way more tired than usual vs Hurkacz.

[jimlosaltos]

Well, the WTA Miami final started out well, then Naomi's serve went away, only made 5/15 firsts in second set.

Sigh. Well, at least women's tennis will not have a definitive number one starting Monday. And, since clay is Iga's best surface (so far) she might be able to build her lead over the clay-RG swing.

[jimlosaltos]

He definitely looked way more tired than usual vs Hurkacz.

It's likely that with a Hernia he couldn't keep up his training. Unfortunate, but doesn't sound career/ or year threatening.

And, if Medy has to take time off, clay court is the best time for him. Glass 1/4 full?

[stotty]

After a week away in Spain, I am catching up on a few matches I missed. Just watched Alcaraz v Kecmanovic. What a great match from both players. Alcaraz is stunningly quick and just the most captivating player right now. There is a buzz around him every time he steps on court. The FO is going to be one interesting tournament if Alcaraz can maintain this current form and Nadal and Novak step up as we expect them to.

[arturohernandez]

Medvedev was playing with a hernia and has just taken 1-2 months off for surgery and rehab.

Very sad for him. His height and style caught up with him.

[stroke]

Of all the 6'4 to 6'6" guys out there, only 2 stand out to me of playing a style that is even close to best suiting their physique, Hurkacz and Berenttini, who to me are 2 of the top 5 favorites for Wimbledon. The rest of them, Tsitsipas included, are trying to outwork players like Alcaraz and Ruud, who to me are both under 6 feet tall(slightly), very mobile, great endurance, great groundstrokes, who are definitely playing a game well suited to their physiques. Very interesting that these 2, Alcaraz and Ruud, that to me are at least the 3rd and 4th favorites at the FO, are playing in the final of a hard court Master's 1000.

[stroke]

Oddsmakers have Alcaraz as a strong favorite at an implied probability of 75% of winning the match. Hard to argue with that. Carlos appears to everything except maybe 1st serve slightly better than Ruud, even the forehand, which is saying something as Ruud has a top tier forehand. The biggest edge Carlos may have is his top tier drop shot.

[jimlosaltos]

Oddsmakers have Alcaraz as a strong favorite at an implied probability of 75% of winning the match. Hard to argue with that. Carlos appears to everything except maybe 1st serve slightly better than Ruud, even the forehand, which is saying something as Ruud has a top tier forehand. The biggest edge Carlos may have is his top tier drop shot.

Makes sense. They've met once, last year in Marbella, which Alcaraz won 6-4, 6-2 on clay and Miami plays more like clay than what I'd call a real hard court.

Perhaps interesting perspective from Ruud:

“He is, at his highest level, very, very good, but he also plays high risk, I think, so he goes for the shots quite often," Ruud said when asked about his opponent in Sunday's final. "Hopefully if I play him he will miss a couple of those.

[stroke]

Makes sense. They've met once, last year in Marbella, which Alcaraz won 6-4, 6-2 on clay and Miami plays more like clay than what I'd call a real hard court.

Perhaps interesting perspective from Ruud:

“He is, at his highest level, very, very good, but he also plays high risk, I think, so he goes for the shots quite often," Ruud said when asked about his opponent in Sunday's final. "Hopefully if I play him he will miss a couple of those.

Yes, I have heard about how slow the courts supposedly are but have not seen any quantitative numbers on it. At one time, those measurements were sometimes available. As you know, still a big difference from the European red clay ha.

[glacierguy]

Yes, I have heard about how slow the courts supposedly are but have not seen any quantitative numbers on it. At one time, those measurements were sometimes available. As you know, still a big difference from the European red clay ha.

Early on in his match against Sinner, Kyrgios was complaining about the court speed of Stadium vs Grandstand (where he had played his previous 3 matches) - as a result on Prime Video they brought up the court speeds which they said are measured every day. I can't remember which was which, but the two numbers were 33.4 & 33.5, which the commentators said meant slow/medium.

[stroke]

Casper up 4-2 1st set. Average forehand speed thus far was posted, Casper average forehand speed so far 91, Carlos at 77. RPM's sadly not supplied. I don't think I have ever seen a 91mph average. May have to rethink who has better forehand ha.

[stroke]

Notes from 1st set won by Alcaraz 7-5, with 11 fh winners vs 5 for Ruud. Carlos has a lethal Dominic Thiem type kick serve to the ad side. Carlos' top tier drop shot not as effective vs the non 6'4" to 6'6" Ruud.

[stroke]

Per Medvedev, Zverev, Tsitsipas, and Rublev, "Houston, we have a problem". Per Sinner, "probably ".

[stotty]

Makes sense. They've met once, last year in Marbella, which Alcaraz won 6-4, 6-2 on clay and Miami plays more like clay than what I'd call a real hard court.

Perhaps interesting perspective from Ruud:

“He is, at his highest level, very, very good, but he also plays high risk, I think, so he goes for the shots quite often," Ruud said when asked about his opponent in Sunday's final. "Hopefully if I play him he will miss a couple of those.

My take is the same as Ruud's. Arthur Ashe once coined the term 'percentage winners' for players like Alcaraz? So as long as you make enough winners I guess it's a good strategy...and exciting for the spectator. Interesting Rafa went for the ultra consistent strategy when he played Alcaraz. He figured Alcaraz would miss a few too many I guess.