New ATP World Number One on Monday

[jimlosaltos]

With Djokovic losing to a qualifier today, Daniil Medvedev on Monday will become the first non-Big Four world number one since Andy Roddick in 2004.

In an odd synergy, Carlos Alcaraz will become the youngest player in the ATP top 20 since another Medvedev, Andrei Medvedev in 1993.

Thus ends for now Novak's record 361 weeks at number one, and current consecutive streak of 86 ( I believe), not with a bang but a whimper. Fed's 237 consecutive weeks remains nearly twice Novak's longest.

Very hard to guard the ranking race going forward. On one hand Meddy has so far done quite poorly on clay. On the other, we ( or I, at least) don't have a good idea which clay events Novak can enter. There are protests in Italy over Novak being reportedly granted an exemption to play Rome. The "Sunshine Double" of Indian Wells & Miami appears out, unless US travel restrictions change quite quickly.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/feb/17/novak-djokovic-italian-open-rome-unvaccinated-tennis

Monte Carlo should have to follow French rules. As we've said here several times, current rules would keep Novak out but there's time for that to change, and an election (Although Macron is favored to win re-election, and has already said he wants to "emmerder anti-vaxxers"

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[stroke]

I think maybe they should allow Novak to play, but only if he wears a mask.

[stotty]

Well done to Meddy. On the whole a well deserved achievement.

The Brits, as of yesterday, consigned Covid (Omnicron) to being nothing more than a cold. All restrictions are now dropped with no need to self-isolate even after a positive test. Basically, you can walk around with Covid and infect others as much as you like. Are we brave or simply stupid? Time will tell. But I am pretty sure all other countries will follow suit soon.

[jimlosaltos]

Well done to Meddy. On the whole a well deserved achievement.

The Brits, as of yesterday, consigned Covid (Omnicron) to being nothing more than a cold. All restrictions are now dropped with no need to self-isolate even after a positive test. Basically, you can walk around with Covid and infect others as much as you like. Are we brave or simply stupid? Time will tell. But I am pretty sure all other countries will follow suit soon.

Perhaps we are. Not clear how fast and likely to vary widely by state. Two weeks after BNP Indian Wells is held with a requirement that all maybe 450,000 attendees (tickets, I believe, not total people) are vaccinated, the Coachella music festival will be held in next door Indio. Roughly 250,000 will be there with ZERO requirements -- no vax, no mask, no distancing. Nada. What could possibly go wrong?

[jimlosaltos]

This site has an analysis of how Djokovic can quickly return to number one. But it is possible they'll seesaw through the summer unless Meddy puts on a good run in the Sunshine Double OR suddenly becomes more proficient on clay.

https://www.sportskeeda.com/tennis/news-how-novak-djokovic-can-reclaim-no-1-ranking-daniil-medvedev-march

"Djokovic could return to the World No. 1 spot as early as next month ... Djokovic will not drop any points in March, while Medvedev is slated to drop 250 points from his 2021 Open 13 Provence title win on 14 March. ( BUT ) ... As per ATP policy, rankings will not be updated in the middle of ATP 1000 events (India Wells ) { SO since Djokovic is not entered) ... a quarterfinal run will be enough for Medvedev to hold on to the No. 1 spot as it will give him 180 ranking points."

{Then comes Miami) "Daniil Medvedev has 90 points to defend in Miami as a result of reaching the quarterfinals in 2021. The Serb, meanwhile, is defending 45 points from his fourth-round result in 2019. Interestingly, both players lost to Roberto Bautista Agut in the respective editions."

[jimlosaltos]

I created a separate post on the potential affect of sanctions, including possibility Russian players could be banned.

So, that further complicates handicapping the ATP race for number one.

Please see that post with excerpts from The Telegraph's Briggs.