Australian Open 2022

[jimlosaltos]

The FO will be interesting. We all know who's favourite. It looks like Novak might get a pass in as he's, supposedly, had Covid. Novak is the only threat to Nadal at the FO and must be miffed that Rafa has just won the tournament Novak has owned for 9 years, the AO. I wouldn't put it past Novak to win the FO this year. He will be highly motivated.

When they finally retire, I am going to really miss all this drama.

Ditto <g>

Apparently, the situation with traveling to France is more complex than prior articles let on. I posted that on the Djoko thread, but in brief the prior-infection exemption CHANGES to 4 months in Feb so it would presumably expire before Roland Garros.

Then again, there are elections in France with the populists doing well, etc. etc.

Stay tuned to the soap opera that is L'Affaire Djokoivc.

[arturohernandez]

All true. But if you only watched the first 3 sets instead of the last 2 you might have a different feeling about Meddy's ability to control play.

So close to winning in 3 sets, so painfully close. From breaking to 3-2 was it in the first set, Medvedev was ahead for over 3 1/2 hours. Only to lose.

Kudos to Rafa doing a near mirror image of Fed's 2017 Aussie vs Rafa. Both 35, both coming off leg surgery, both off the tour for 6 months. Both came from behind to win.

I rewatched the first three sets. Rafa almost won the second set. It was only the first set where Meddy really dominated. Otherwise, I felt that the match was very close. Nadal just kept hanging around. Meddy was just running everything down. Most of the time when he won points it was outright. So rewatching it, I had the sense that Meddy was running more.

It also feels like the ball was going faster at the beginning. Almost like it cooled down which helped Nadal who needs more time. I looked at the volley stats and they are almost identical. But, I did feel that Nadal was simply baiting Danil into to approaching the net. Then he would pass him in so many ways.

This match exposed two weaknesses that I am sure everyone will exploit. The virtual lack of a net game for Danil and the forehand. It is simply not a weapon and he rarely went down the line. Meanwhile, Nadal could hurt Danil from both corners with his forehan. He could hit it down the line, cross court, inside out or inside in. Meddy hit almost all his forehands cross court. And Nadal would just camp out there and hit slice or just defend. Once it came to Nadal's forehand he would defend until he got a chance to attack. Also, Meddy hits very flat which means more risk on his down the line backhand.

It comes down to percentages and Nadal had better percentages. Only Fed (with good knees) or Novak would have beaten him on this night. The last time they played we know that Fed had to hit big backhands to make any inroads. And of course Fed has a forehand that is as good Nadal's. Meddy was close but running everything down is not a winning strategy in the long run. My sense is that people will just try to keep him out there for 5 sets with the idea that he will tire out.

The FO should be very interesting.

[jimlosaltos]

I rewatched the first three sets. Rafa almost won the second set. It was only the first set where Meddy really dominated. Otherwise, I felt that the match was very close. Nadal just kept hanging around. Meddy was just running everything down. Most of the time when he won points it was outright. So rewatching it, I had the sense that Meddy was running more.

It also feels like the ball was going faster at the beginning. Almost like it cooled down which helped Nadal who needs more time. I looked at the volley stats and they are almost identical. But, I did feel that Nadal was simply baiting Danil into to approaching the net. Then he would pass him in so many ways.

This match exposed two weaknesses that I am sure everyone will exploit. The virtual lack of a net game for Danil and the forehand. It is simply not a weapon and he rarely went down the line. Meanwhile, Nadal could hurt Danil from both corners with his forehan. He could hit it down the line, cross court, inside out or inside in. Meddy hit almost all his forehands cross court. And Nadal would just camp out there and hit slice or just defend. Once it came to Nadal's forehand he would defend until he got a chance to attack. Also, Meddy hits very flat which means more risk on his down the line backhand.

It comes down to percentages and Nadal had better percentages. Only Fed (with good knees) or Novak would have beaten him on this night. The last time they played we know that Fed had to hit big backhands to make any inroads. And of course Fed has a forehand that is as good Nadal's. Meddy was close but running everything down is not a winning strategy in the long run. My sense is that people will just try to keep him out there for 5 sets with the idea that he will tire out.

The FO should be very interesting.

Good points. Normally, hot weather helps Rafa by accentuating the jump on his forehand, but at 6 ft 6 in that might bother Daniil less -- and yes slow down his hard, flat shots, as you note. But Meddy hit 76 winners and had 16 fewer unforced errors than Rafa. Doesn't sound like low percentage tennis.

Curious that when they met in the US Open final, Medy nearly turned their match around by coming to the net. This time, Rafa turned the match around by luring Medy into the net.

As for "exposed two weaknesses ... everyone will exploit". Not sure "everyone" can? Not sure many can, actually Have to return the 130 mph serve first, then have touch to hit loads of drop shots.

As for Roland Garros, sadly Daniil hates clay and it returns his emotion <g>.

More sadly, Thiem's rehab as going as bad as I had feared Delpo 2.0? Hope not. He should be winning Roland Garros by now.

[arturohernandez]

Good points. Normally, hot weather helps Rafa by accentuating the jump on his forehand, but at 6 ft 6 in that might bother Daniil less -- and yes slow down his hard, flat shots, as you note. But Meddy hit 76 winners and had 16 fewer unforced errors than Rafa. Doesn't sound like low percentage tennis.

Curious that when they met in the US Open final, Medy nearly turned their match around by coming to the net. This time, Rafa turned the match around by luring Medy into the net.

As for "exposed two weaknesses ... everyone will exploit". Not sure "everyone" can? Not sure many can, actually Have to return the 130 mph serve first, then have touch to hit loads of drop shots.

As for Roland Garros, sadly Daniil hates clay and it returns his emotion <g>.

More sadly, Thiem's rehab as going as bad as I had feared Delpo 2.0? Hope not. He should be winning Roland Garros by now.

I see that but I also get the sense that he had to run a lot to win those points. It wasn't like a Fed final where the points are short and he can win games in a minute. Meddy can hit the 130 mph serve but he had trouble doing it all the way to the end. I doubt he would be able to do it the way that Fed did in the 2009 Wimbledon final.

But I have to admit the stats are just an anomaly. I kept looking for a place where Nadal was better. The only thing is the second serve percentage of points won. Aside from that he was either even or below Meddy.

It really came down to one more break and the ability to play his best at the very end of the match. He won by the skin of his teeth. Razor thin. Whatever you want to call it.

Thiem's game is just so punishing. He appears to be back on the practice court. You never know...

[jimlosaltos]

Thiem's game is just so punishing. He appears to be back on the practice court. You never know...

Sadly, just pulled out, this with pain between knuckles

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220131-thiem-skips-cordoba-comeback-with-another-hand-injury

"In the last days I suffered a minor injury between my knuckles, a little strain of my ligaments.

"The positive thing the wrist is perfectly fine but I'm suffering pain in my hands and also lacking of practice. So I have to pull out, I'm very sad but I'm going to come back once I'm 100 percent fit."

[arturohernandez]

Sadly, just pulled out, this with pain between knuckles

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220131-thiem-skips-cordoba-comeback-with-another-hand-injury

"In the last days I suffered a minor injury between my knuckles, a little strain of my ligaments.

"The positive thing the wrist is perfectly fine but I'm suffering pain in my hands and also lacking of practice. So I have to pull out, I'm very sad but I'm going to come back once I'm 100 percent fit."

Not good. Sounds like too much wear and tear. The pain is just moving around from one place to another.