Australian Open 2022

[stroke]

Certainly to me a prime Nadal would be my pick here, but at 35 years old, if he can beat Medvedev here, to me would be his most impressive win ever, and that is saying a lot.

Basically to me, if the 3 were 20 years old again, we would have another 15 years of the same ol.

[stotty]

Certainly to me a prime Nadal would be my pick here, but at 35 years old, if he can beat Medvedev here, to me would be his most impressive win ever, and that is saying a lot.

Basically to me, if the 3 were 20 years old again, we would have another 15 years of the same ol.

Rafa is playing well enough to cause problems in my view. I am just wondering how he will go about playing the match tactically. My only reason to doubt Rafa is, thus far, he has never found a way to beat Novak on a hard court...and Meddy is pretty much the same opponent on a hard court in many respects. When faced with backhands that good, a major part of Rafa's weaponry is taken away.

[jthb1021]

Rafa is playing well enough to cause problems in my view. I am just wondering how he will go about playing the match tactically. My only reason to doubt Rafa is, thus far, he has never found a way to beat Novak on a hard court...and Meddy is pretty much the same opponent on a hard court in many respects. When faced with backhands that good, a major part of Rafa's weaponry is taken away.

You're right! Pounding the backhand is the foundation of his game and Medvedev will be welcoming it! He can try to break down medvedevs forehand early like Novak did in the aussy final last year, but I don't think that'll work either. What Nadal has done more of and better is serve with a little more pop on the first and especially second serves...Daniil will not be bothered with that against this Nadal or 2009 Nadal on a hardcourt. This has potential to be like what Novak did to Nadal in the final of Australia a few years back. The game plan for Daniil is the same and he has the backhand to do it
Nadal did the same thing to Fed. Federer has and had the greatest slice backhand ever, but against Nadal he got punished for using it! He had to change the basic strategy and take backhands rising and down the line off of the heavy ball from Nadal in the big moments. Took him over a decade to make the adjustment and turn the tide. (blame the racquet all you want) When you have to risk more and play out of your usual patterns in the big moments to defeat someone who is playing their game, you are the underdog, simple as that.

[arturohernandez]

From the Roland Garros data I used for TPN's articles on speed & spin, Barty had a forehand with the highest spin on the WTA side at over 3,400 RPMs. From memory (too lazy to look it up) only other WTA players I recall at over 3,000 RPMs were Iga Swiatek, Paula Badosa, and Maria Sakari -- all younger players taught outside the U.S. Meanwhile, even young women from the US still have the linear swings and flat balls. Coco had some of the highest velocity but extremely flat.

That is one my criticisms of Gauff. Her forehand is great to create pace. Probably was a weapon in the juniors with slower ball speeds. Now that the speeds are higher it breaks down under pressure. They should take her to Rick Macci and completely revamp her forehand. Or maybe Carlos Rodriguez could do it like he did with Henin.

Barty does seem to have a mini reverse that she uses inside the court and on some balls to create even more topspin. Like a Fed/Rafa hybrid. Would be an interesting analysis on its own.

[arturohernandez]

Collins will be dealing with a ball that varies in pace and spin. She will not be able to just hit everything in rhythm. Imagine what will happen with that big old swing when Barty hits one of her slices down the line with side spin. She has to hit up and around the ball. If Collins starts slicing, it is game over.

Barty will just have to play her regular game. Collins will have to do something else. I just don't see who can beat Barty on a good day right now. It would have to be someone like Serena a few years ago. And even there, Barty's slice just throws everyone off. And her serve is pinpoint with plenty of kick to trouble the returner. Then you have a forehand with more topspin, an A level net game, a great overhead... She is like an old school player who can do it all.

I think I am going to borrow a line from a previous post. I predict "pain." Rocky 3 all over again here too.

Collins is going to feel like she is at the dentist getting her wisdom teeth pulled.

[stotty]

You're right! Pounding the backhand is the foundation of his game and Medvedev will be welcoming it! He can try to break down medvedevs forehand early like Novak did in the aussy final last year, but I don't think that'll work either. What Nadal has done more of and better is serve with a little more pop on the first and especially second serves...Daniil will not be bothered with that against this Nadal or 2009 Nadal on a hardcourt. This has potential to be like what Novak did to Nadal in the final of Australia a few years back. The game plan for Daniil is the same and he has the backhand to do it
Nadal did the same thing to Fed. Federer has and had the greatest slice backhand ever, but against Nadal he got punished for using it! He had to change the basic strategy and take backhands rising and down the line off of the heavy ball from Nadal in the big moments. Took him over a decade to make the adjustment and turn the tide. (blame the racquet all you want) When you have to risk more and play out of your usual patterns in the big moments to defeat someone who is playing their game, you are the underdog, simple as that.

The interesting thing about this match up (and against Novak) is Rafa doesn't have the wide serve to the deuce court in the same way a righty does. So exploiting the Meddy forehand (or Novak's) is not so easy for Rafa. Novak can get to Meddy's forehand with tactical serving to the deuce court whereas Rafa doesn't have this option, not in quite the same way anyway. I think it's a significant factor.

[arturohernandez]

The interesting thing about this match up (and against Novak) is Rafa doesn't have the wide serve to the deuce court in the same way a righty does. So exploiting the Meddy forehand (or Novak's) is not so easy for Rafa. Novak can get to Meddy's forehand with tactical serving to the deuce court whereas Rafa doesn't have this option, not in quite the same way anyway. I think it's a significant factor.

I agree with you. I think that Rafa's A game does not match up with Medy's A game. This means Rafa will have to play his B game which means he has to play higher risk against a faster, taller, and younger opponent.

It will be interesting to see if Nadal can find a weakness we are not seeing. Maybe there is some combination that will get him the shot wide to his forehand. Maybe a short cross court slice to draw Medy into the court and then the run around forehand where he can choose either up the line or inside out. Only problem is that Medy can counter by hitting his forehand up the line to setup his own backhand.

Medy has 10 years of Rafa-Novak matches to watch. An advantage that Novak never had.

Will be an interesting chess match!

[jimlosaltos]

Collins will be dealing with a ball that varies in pace and spin. She will not be able to just hit everything in rhythm. Imagine what will happen with that big old swing when Barty hits one of her slices down the line with side spin. She has to hit up and around the ball. If Collins starts slicing, it is game over.

Barty will just have to play her regular game. Collins will have to do something else. I just don't see who can beat Barty on a good day right now. It would have to be someone like Serena a few years ago. And even there, Barty's slice just throws everyone off. And her serve is pinpoint with plenty of kick to trouble the returner. Then you have a forehand with more topspin, an A level net game, a great overhead... She is like an old school player who can do it all.

I think I am going to borrow a line from a previous post. I predict "pain." Rocky 3 all over again here too.

Collins is going to feel like she is at the dentist getting her wisdom teeth pulled.

Quite the change in the second set. Ended up Barty adjusted -- did she ever.

[stroke]

Medvedev appears to have put the fork in this thing, taking a 2 set to 0 lead over Nadal. The 2nd set went to a tiebreaker, and the cool customer Medvedev took it.

[stotty]

Just joined the match midway through the 4th set. Meddy is sitting too far behind the baseline in the rallies. He's in trouble if continues to do that. He'll lose.

[stroke]

2 sets all. Nadal in now the oddsmakers favorite, with an implied probability of 57% of winning.

[stotty]

Nadal looks the fitter of the two. Meddy needs to take a leaf out of Novak's book and hug the baseline. He's going to lose rally after rally if he doesn't.

[stotty]

Nadal looking remarkably calm and emotionless. I think he's hit Zen mode.

[stotty]

Meddy goes a break down. His serve was the only thing keeping him in this match.

[stotty]

Rafa now running on fumes but still calm. Meddy found his IQ at 2-3 and nearly broke back. Rafa with some excellent serving to the ad court gets himself out of trouble.