Australian Open 2022

[arturohernandez]

I think Stephanek was the last really good volleyer. I was at Wimbledon in 2014 when he lost to Novak in four tight sets. He served and volleyed much of the time and approached whenever he could.

I think Rafter, Henman, Edberg, McEnroe and Cash were all great volleyers...better than Sampras actually.

I had forgotten about Stepanek. It's interesting that players only use it as an off-tactic these days. It's like an alternative approach for those not at the top or to throw people off.

I still have my eye on Maxime Cressy. He is taking the top players to tiebreaks and winning sets off of them. Why more players don't use a different approach is still not clear to me.

https://youtu.be/uYNYYdDrXHg

Cressy is aiming for top 10 and he might get there. I think his game can still get better at the net. He doesn't really wrong foot people yet and his volley game will improve even more.

[arturohernandez]

Well, Sinner has crept quietly through the draw as I thought he might. I think he has a decent chance against Tsitsipas. I make it an even contest.

I don't see much in the way of a Meddy v Rafa final but the next few days will tell.

I agree. I don't think that Rafa can handle three more 5 set matches. It is a big ask for him right now. He might even get injured. When the chips are down I think he will opt to take the quarters or semis as a win and save himself for the clay season.

[arturohernandez]

Oddsmakers have Sinner as favorite vs Tsitsipas with a 60% implied probability of winning.

I like Sinner a lot. Tsitsipas is another player who is very good but something doesn't seem quite right. Of course, there is his serve but even the way he paces around seems to nervous to me. The best players learn to conserve energy. Sinner is smooth as silk and explosive. His upside is greater even if he does not win.

[arturohernandez]

FAA looks to be flying high these days. I mean he looks very smooth but I still feel like there is a weapon missing. Something that makes you say whoa. Can someone convince me he will be able to find a way to beat the top players?

What am I missing?

[stotty]

I agree. I don't think that Rafa can handle three more 5 set matches. It is a big ask for him right now. He might even get injured. When the chips are down I think he will opt to take the quarters or semis as a win and save himself for the clay season.

He won't. He is red hot second favourite to win this title.

[stotty]

Really? I'm always surprised when someone that has never won is made a "favorite". I admit I haven't yet seen Sinner at the AO, but have watched him a fair amount. Great game.

Is he capable of winning, absolutely. Should he be favored?

Just realized that's pretty much what I said of Alcaraz vs Berrettini. " Does Alcaraz have a higher ceiling than Matteo? Absolutely. Does that make the younger player a "favorite"?

Recency bias" is a strong force

I still think it's an even bet. Tsitsipas is the bigger name (despite the bookies predictions) and has achieved more thus far career-wise so that is a psychological barrier for any lesser player trying to beat a supposedly better player. But I like Sinner. He does what it says on his tin. He goes out and plays consistently well all the time and gets to the stages of tournament he should get to. This time he is ready to make the jump. Beating Tsitsipas is a big hurdle but doable.

[stroke]

Really? I'm always surprised when someone that has never won is made a "favorite". I admit I haven't yet seen Sinner at the AO, but have watched him a fair amount. Great game.

Is he capable of winning, absolutely. Should he be favored?

Just realized that's pretty much what I said of Alcaraz vs Berrettini. " Does Alcaraz have a higher ceiling than Matteo? Absolutely. Does that make the younger player a "favorite"?

Recency bias" is a strong force

That is what is interesting to me about betting odds. Sinner is definitely the favorite because that is the official betting line. I too was a little surprised he was as solid a favorite as he is, as Tsitsipas has a better resume, but that being said, as Auturo pointed out and I agree with, Sinner has a much smoother game. I like Sinner here.

[stotty]

Quarter Final Line Up

Monfils v Berrettini

Shapovalov v Nadal

Sinner v Tsitsipas

FAA v Medvedev

[arturohernandez]

He won't. He is red hot second favourite to win this title.

I guess people have been counting him out for years. I suppose I shouldn't do it now. But I have a funny feeling he will seem a lot cooler when he starts playing more highly seeded players.

Either way, not really missing Djokovic.

[arturohernandez]

Quarter Final Line Up

Monfils v Berrettini

Shapovalov v Nadal

Sinner v Tsitsipas

FAA v Medvedev

Berretini in 3. Shapo in 4. Sinner in 5 and Medvedev in 3.

Medvedev is like FAA kryptonite. Actually, everyone's krytopnite. Only player who could handle him now would be a VERY inform Rafa or Fed. You need serious offense to take down someone like Med. Actually, defense to offense and only Rafa or Fed could do it but that would be about 5 years ago.

Shapo and Nadal are playing in the heat. I take Shapo here. He loves fast surfaces and Nadal will look slow and tired against him. Sorry, I am older than both but age is a thing and we are about to see it.

Sinner is smooth. He is like a very fine Italian wine. Silky. Tsitsi is looking too mechanical these days to me. Might be why he ended up with elbow problems. And he will be gassed.

Berrettini is not a smooth Italian wine. More like a Lambrusco. But hey Lambrusco is good too even though it may not be very fine. It has some bubbles so you get a kick like his forehand and serve. He will take Monfils down who has done well to make it to the quarters.

[stroke]

Monfils and Berrettini in a 4th set in a toss up, Berrettini up 2 sets to one. Nadal gets past Denis in 5. I did not see the match, but it seems Denis was very unhappy with the enforcement, or lack of enforcement, with time violations regarding Nadal. He probably has a valid point. Hey Denis, Stroke here. You were not playing Novak. That was Rafa. Forgetaboutit on that beef.

[stotty]

Yes El Shapo was not happy with Rafa taking so much time between points...time to recover physically. The umpire failed repeatedly to come down on Rafa.

Neither Monfils nor Berrettini are a good matchup for Rafa. Monfils has lost umpteen times to Rafa, and Berrettini doesn't have the backhand to deal with Rafa's pummelling forehand. At least Berrettini could take the racket out of Rafa's hand if he served well enough and was cracking his forehand.

Monfils looks favourite heading into the 5th versus Berrettini.

[stotty]

A loose first game at the start of the fifth by Monfils has led to disaster. Now a double break down he needs to step on it considerably here. Berrettini just has to serve well and hold his nerve.

[stroke]

Yes it is hard to see Berrettini able to deal with the Rafa forehand to his backhand well enough to win 3 sets. Sinner appears to me have the best chance to beat Nadal.

[arturohernandez]

Monfils and Berrettini in a 4th set in a toss up, Berrettini up 2 sets to one. Nadal gets past Denis in 5. I did not see the match, but it seems Denis was very unhappy with the enforcement, or lack of enforcement, with time violations regarding Nadal. He probably has a valid point. Hey Denis, Stroke here. You were not playing Novak. That was Rafa. Forgetaboutit on that beef.

Shapo needs Delgado to get Murray's psychologist to help out. Murray hired Lendl's psychologist.

El Shapo is not quite ready yet. Nadal was on the ropes and Shapo let him off. I think he would have been better off keeping Nadal in long rallies. Rafa looked gassed. Had he stayed out there another hour it would have been over for Nadal. Fed is a sharp shooter but he learned to control his emotions. The yelling at the box thing is not a good look. He needs a psychologist ASAP. There has to be a way for him to focus his aggression and control his emotions. At some point, running too hot hurts you.

The good news for Shapo is he is learning to play defense. He is also improving his volley and slice. Maybe he will finally realize that he does not have to win every point immediately with a baseline winner.