Australian Open 2022

[jimlosaltos]

Oddsmakers have Tsitsipas as a solid favorite and Zverev as an overwhelming favorite. We will see. Fritz and Denis have a lot of game, but this is difference maker time for both.

Shapo did it! Awesome. I have NOT yet watched this, but looking forward to it.

Straight sets, Shapo won more points on first serve and hit twice as many winners, total points 104 - 88.

Dug around for this. Although Zverev hit more of what I'll call "hyper-velocity shots", including 130 mph off BOTH sides, Shapo had his share.

Forehand winner, flat at 129 mph !

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[arturohernandez]

Yes, El Shapo is a great shot-maker and really entertaining to watch. He has not made much headway in terms of results against the big 3 but the one win he does have against them was at least against Nadal - a tight three setter on a hard court.

Fingers crossed he might come up with the goods this time. The game needs shotmakers.

El Shapo is that the name of a new series on Tennis Chanel.

[arturohernandez]

Shapo did it! Awesome. I have NOT yet watched this, but looking forward to it.

Straight sets, Shapo won more points on first serve and hit twice as many winners, total points 104 - 88.

Dug around for this. Although Zverev hit more of what I'll call "hyper-velocity shots", including 130 mph off BOTH sides, Shapo had his share.

Forehand winner, flat at 129 mph !

filedata/fetch?id=96452&d=1642965175&type=thumb

The thing that Shapo has been missing, IMHO, is that he could not really play defense. He hadn't learned to just hang in there during tough stretches. The second round taught him to simply hang around and try and win when he did not have his best stuff.

Yesterday, he had a rough patch in the second set where it looked like he might run away with it but then fell off and lost four games in a row.

He just hung around and just showed Zverev he was not going anywhere. Zverev hits big but the commentators kept saying he needed more time and the court was playing fast.

El Shapo is a force to be reckoned with. He won points at the net off S&V. He consistently pestered Zverev's forehand. And his return has improved. He is really learning to just bunt the ball back deep with his backhand and even his forehand if he has to.

I don't see any other shotmakers that remind me of the 90's these days. I know you guys are high on Berretini but his backhand is just not good enough.

If Berretini had Zverev's backhand, or Zverev had Berretini's serve and forehand. I know wishful thinking.

But El Shapo has the serve, forehand and backhand. He just needs to mature and find the right balance of offense and defense. He reminds me of a left handed Sampras in his athleticism and aggression.

[stroke]

To me, Denis hits way bigger everything than Sampras, except serve. Denis does have a great serve with a very live arm, just not Sampras level. Beyond obvious, Sampras was a much much better volleyer.

This matchup vs Nadal very appealing. What a tell here.

[stotty]

I hope I am wrong but I just think Rafa will get too many balls back for El Shapo. Rafa is a tough guy to beat at this stage of the tournament and with 21 slams in his sights.

[arturohernandez]

To me, Denis hits way bigger everything than Sampras, except serve. Denis does have a great serve with a very live arm, just not Sampras level. Beyond obvious, Sampras was a much much better volleyer.

This matchup vs Nadal very appealing. What a tell here.

Pretty much no one is a better volleyer today than Sampras was. We may never see a better volleyer at least for a singles player ever again. Fed is very good but not like Sampras.

That being said, Shapo is improving his slice and volley a lot. He hit a couple of shoe top volleys that were incredible. I think playing doubles in the ATP cup helped.

Nadal Shapo will also be worth staying up for!

[arturohernandez]

I hope I am wrong but I just think Rafa will get too many balls back for El Shapo. Rafa is a tough guy to beat at this stage of the tournament and with 21 slams in his sights.

Then there is lefty against lefty. That is always a complicated matchup. Rafa has more practice having just played a lefty. Back to back lefty vs. lefty how often does that happen.

[stroke]

Pretty much no one is a better volleyer today than Sampras was. We may never see a better volleyer at least for a singles player ever again. Fed is very good but not like Sampras.

That being said, Shapo is improving his slice and volley a lot. He hit a couple of shoe top volleys that were incredible. I think playing doubles in the ATP cup helped.

Nadal Shapo will also be worth staying up for!

I think Stephanek was every bit as good, but no one else recently.

[jimlosaltos]

How about Rafter? Edberg? Fed? Nada?

[stroke]

Certainly Rafter and Edberg. And Pat Cash.

[stroke]

Fritz and Tsitsipas going to 5th set. Looks like a complete toss up. Huge match for both players here.

[stotty]

I think Stephanek was the last really good volleyer. I was at Wimbledon in 2014 when he lost to Novak in four tight sets. He served and volleyed much of the time and approached whenever he could.

I think Rafter, Henman, Edberg, McEnroe and Cash were all great volleyers...better than Sampras actually.

[stotty]

Well, Sinner has crept quietly through the draw as I thought he might. I think he has a decent chance against Tsitsipas. I make it an even contest.

I don't see much in the way of a Meddy v Rafa final but the next few days will tell.

[stroke]

Well, Sinner has crept quietly through the draw as I thought he might. I think he has a decent chance against Tsitsipas. I make it an even contest.

I don't see much in the way of a Meddy v Rafa final but the next few days will tell.

Oddsmakers have Sinner as favorite vs Tsitsipas with a 60% implied probability of winning.

[jimlosaltos]

Oddsmakers have Sinner as favorite vs Tsitsipas with a 60% implied probability of winning.

Really? I'm always surprised when someone that has never won is made a "favorite". I admit I haven't yet seen Sinner at the AO, but have watched him a fair amount. Great game.

Is he capable of winning, absolutely. Should he be favored?

Just realized that's pretty much what I said of Alcaraz vs Berrettini. " Does Alcaraz have a higher ceiling than Matteo? Absolutely. Does that make the younger player a "favorite"?

Recency bias" is a strong force