What Happens to Djokovic Going Forward?

[jimlosaltos]

The visibility Djokovic's effort to circumvent Australian border laws has generated -- coupled with the higher contagious levels of omicron -- may make it harder for him to play tournaments.

At this moment, WImbledon is the only major Djokovic will be allowed to play in. Granted, this is all fluid and so much can change as we've all seen in this too long pandemic.

This morning, the French Sports Ministry announced that there will be "no exemptions" to a rule that all people who enter public spaces must be vaccinated. This comes after a frustrated French President Macron announced he wanted to put anti-vaxxers 'emmerde', which is vulgarity roughly like put them in deep doodo.

Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/sp...ry-2022-01-17/

L'Equipe: https://www.lequipe.fr/Tennis/Actual...france/1311145

The best overview I've found is this from the BBC: Novak Djokovic: What next for 20-time Grand Slam champion after Australia row?

UPDATE: Jan 17 afternoon. Add Spain. "Everyone must comply with the laws of Spain, even an elite athlete."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ys-2022-01-17/

In the US, all international travelers must be fully vaccinated to enter. That rule was overlooked for athletes at the first-post-pandemic US Open in 2020 as long as they quarantined (I believe, from memory). But 1) We know as Benoit Paire put it "There was no bubble", and 2) That was the Trump administration.

While national laws get the most attention, most global sporting events are "filtered" at two levels. The nation sets border policy, but the states and/or counties set policies for attending large events. This will create uncertainty for Djokovic (among others) who won't want to go through his Aussie debacle over and over again.

Consider BNP Paribas aka Indian Wells. Its policy in October was that absolutely everyone at the event had to be vaccinated -- ticket takers, food servers, janitors, umpires -- except the players, who went by ATP "rules". How will the county govt of Riverside, where IW is held, feel about creating a special exemption that only applies to a couple of tennis players this time around? I have no idea. But all one needs is a solitary local politician to raise a stink and it could become a regional hot potato issue.

Then repeat this for NYC. Remember we had some players able to play after testing positive during the event, some not, because they were in different counties while at the US Open.

Djokovic has another problem that falls under the cliche': "With friends like these who needs enemies."

Because of the tactics his tony Australian law firm followed, he had his visa revoked twice. That means he is automatically banned for 3 years.

To play there again, Djokovic will likely have to appeal to the same immigration minister (barring election change) and the same department he battled in court.

Meanwhile, his cohort is attacking the department he needs to persuade. The Serbian PM called them barbaric, drawing the ire of the sitting Aussie PM. Novak's family said he "was tortured" which also drew the ire of the Australian government. Djokovic's father even called on the Queen of England to intervene and fire the Aussie Prime Minister. I guess he googled how the Commonwealth is structured. One imagines 95 yo Queen Elizabeth grabbing her corgis and dorgi, flying to Australia and taking away the PM's royal seal, or some such.

Hardly a way to win friends and influence people.

May cooler minds prevail.

Stay tuned.

[arturohernandez]

I remember the 1990's when I turned on the US Open quarterfinals and I saw Lendl and Becker. In just a few years, it seemed to me they had gone from playing finals to playing in the quarterfinals. About a decade later, Sampras soared to new heights and won the US Open at 32. Agassi managed to reach number one at 30. That seemed "old" to be be playing at such a high level.

The Big 3 seem to have defied Father Time. They are able to play well past the age that the two previous generations managed to reach finals and win them. For a while now, I have been wondering whether Nadal and Djokovic will start to drop.Actually, it is also true in other sports. I mean we have an over 40 quarterback who is still contending for Super Bowls. Poor Joe Namath.

Of course, we have always wondered why the next generation did not take over. Why did the Big 3 manage to dominate for so long? So far I have not run across a very good answer besides training and court speed changes.

I keep thinking that part of the answer is fear. You run across an opponent and they "know" that they will beat you and you "know" that you will lose to them. But then you stay with them one match and barely lose. Then you gain confidence and you win. It is what happened to Stan against Djokovic and to some extent to Federer against Nadal after his comeback. At some point, they knew they could stay with them.

The new generation is younger and just has to stay out there with the old guard. Playing five set matches is not something that the old guard wants to do. The young guard can recover faster. There is no science that will overcome the differences in recovery.

The question is whether the two Ev's will now know they can stay with the Big 2. Fed may come back for one more Wimbledon but I doubt he will be competing in multiple majors. Once, the rest of the field loses its fear, then Djokovic and Nadal will be moved into the quarterfinals, just like Lendl and Becker did a while back.

Cleary had this in the NYT today, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/16/s...lian-open.html

[stotty]

I am not sure how well Novak is advised but he is generally calm and cool under media provocation, unlike his father who shoots his mouth off and does his son no favours. The ban doesn't have to be three years if he gets vaccinated and doesn't slag off the Australian authorities in the meantime between now and next year. My guess is the authorities will consider it a win and let Novak in if he gets vaccinated and submits an entry to play in Oz next year.

His only option is to get vaccinated if he wants to play in the remaining slams this year. That said, he will probably be allowed to play SW19 without a vaccine.

Novak's playing with his legacy here. He's missed three slams in the last two years that he was slated to win; a cancelled Wimbledon, expulsion from a US Open, and now thrown out of Oz. At 34 he cannot afford any further screw ups.

I imagine the people around athletes like Novak are influential. This is why I wonder how well he is advised. Superstars need guidance or they can easily lose the plot and consider themselves god-like. We don't have an inside seat but those closest to him seem to be from his part of the world. Not sure that is a good thing. Goran is a nice man but certainly has a screw loose. Novak's father is also a nutter; not sure about the mother. I wonder if any of this has affected his moral compass.

[johnyandell]

I doubt Novak will ever get vaccinated.

[jimlosaltos]

I am not sure how well Novak is advised but he is generally calm and cool under media provocation, unlike his father who shoots his mouth off and does his son no favours. The ban doesn't have to be three years if he gets vaccinated and doesn't slag off the Australian authorities in the meantime between now and next year. My guess is the authorities will consider it a win and let Novak in if he gets vaccinated and submits an entry to play in Oz next year.

His only option is to get vaccinated if he wants to play in the remaining slams this year. That said, he will probably be allowed to play SW19 without a vaccine.

Novak's playing with his legacy here. He's missed three slams in the last two years that he was slated to win; a cancelled Wimbledon, expulsion from a US Open, and now thrown out of Oz. At 34 he cannot afford any further screw ups.

I imagine the people around athletes like Novak are influential. This is why I wonder how well he is advised. Superstars need guidance or they can easily lose the plot and consider themselves god-like. We don't have an inside seat but those closest to him seem to be from his part of the world. Not sure that is a good thing. Goran is a nice man but certainly has a screw loose. Novak's father is also a nutter; not sure about the mother. I wonder if any of this has affected his moral compass.

Very good point. Much as with Serena's outbursts on court, I blame Djokovic's enablers as much as him. When he returns to Serbia he will be treated as a hero, even as a demi-god. I understand that local media is largely (not entirely} controlled by the authoritarian government, so the story heard there is that the evil Western world is attacking Novak because he is a Serb.

As for his closer cohort,Mari?n Vajda played/ plays a huge role in Novak's success, but it's been documented how he reinforces Djokovic's lesser actions. As for serve-whisperer uber-coach Goran Ivanišević, photos of the team at the airport leaving for Dubai show Goran wearing his mask as a chin-strap. Small issue perhaps, but it shows just how completely tone deaf those around him are. Whole world watching, Novak's image taking a hit and .... team is wearing blinders.

I'm not a fan of Djokovic, the person, but it would be a shame if his career petered out in this fashion. Perhaps it's there and I simply don't see it, but how does he escape the carnival finger-box he's put himself in unless he compromises and gets vaccinated?

[arturohernandez]

Very good point. Much as with Serena's outbursts on court, I blame Djokovic's enablers as much as him. When he returns to Serbia he will be treated as a hero, even as a demi-god. I understand that local media is largely (not entirely} controlled by the authoritarian government, so the story heard there is that the evil Western world is attacking Novak because he is a Serb.

As for his closer cohort,Mari?n Vajda played/ plays a huge role in Novak's success, but it's been documented how he reinforces Djokovic's lesser actions. As for serve-whisperer uber-coach Goran Ivanišević, photos of the team at the airport leaving for Dubai show Goran wearing his mask as a chin-strap. Small issue perhaps, but it shows just how completely tone deaf those around him are. Whole world watching, Novak's image taking a hit and .... team is wearing blinders.

I'm not a fan of Djokovic, the person, but it would be a shame if his career petered out in this fashion. Perhaps it's there and I simply don't see it, but how does he escape the carnival finger-box he's put himself in unless he compromises and gets vaccinated?

Very interesting line that top athletes walk. They are catered to as special from a very young age. And yet, they have to learn to be humble in order to not stray too far.

It reminds of Johnny Mac in 1984. I thought he would never lose. A few years later, all majors were out of reach. Djokovic seems to be having a Johnny Mac moment here.

He didn't marry a childhood star and take an extended break voluntarily. The circumstances seem to have colluded against him. But the outcome might be the same. He may have no choice but to capitulate and get vaccinated. But, if he does, will he lose some of his sting? Will doubt creep in?

Talk about the big resignation. This might be the biggest of all.

[stotty]

Under the new Covid rules in France, Novak will be able to defend his French Open title. He gets an exemption because he tested positive in December. The exemption for testing positive lasts 6 months and the FO falls within that timeframe. So unless things change again, he gets to play.

[jimlosaltos]

Under the new Covid rules in France, Novak will be able to defend his French Open title. He gets an exemption because he tested positive in December. The exemption for testing positive lasts 6 months and the FO falls within that timeframe. So unless things change again, he gets to play.

Whoa ! That's new.

[jimlosaltos]

Under the new Covid rules in France, Novak will be able to defend his French Open title. He gets an exemption because he tested positive in December. The exemption for testing positive lasts 6 months and the FO falls within that timeframe. So unless things change again, he gets to play.

I'm checking on this. If you have a source I'd love to see it. From searching, I believe the original might be an Italian publication (can't find the link right now) which crude machine translation has it saying there is a letter to players saying it is "expected" that a French law will be passed "providing an exemption" that sounds virtually identical to the Australian law (absent the Australian government firmly saying "No" on using prior infections".

Update: Supposedly came from La Gazzetta

https://www.gazzetta.it/

[stotty]

I'm checking on this. If you have a source I'd love to see it. From searching, I believe the original might be an Italian publication (can't find the link right now) which crude machine translation has it saying there is a letter to players saying it is "expected" that a French law will be passed "providing an exemption" that sounds virtually identical to the Australian law (absent the Australian government firmly saying "No" on using prior infections".

Update: Supposedly came from La Gazzetta

https://www.gazzetta.it/

https://www.express.co.uk/sport/tennis/1554353/Novak-Djokovic-French-Open-Australian-Open-tennis-news

[jimlosaltos]

https://www.express.co.uk/sport/tenn...en-tennis-news

Yup. Thanks. The Express article quotes La Gazzetta, which says a new law took effect Monday that includes the prior-infection exemption.

UPDATE: Finally found a French source that supports what La Gazzetta reported, and its in English <g>.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20220124/vaccine-passes-for-tourists-in-france-your-questions-answered/

I had a health pass when I came to France in the summer, is the vaccine pass the same thing?

In effect, yes. The health pass required either proof of vaccination, proof of recent recovery from Covid or proof of a recent negative Covid test and most people used the TousAntiCovid app to show this (although you can also show paper certificates).

The vaccine pass doesn’t allow presentation of a negative test result, but in most other respects is the same, so if you have proof of full vaccination, nothing changes for you. Apart, that is, from boosters . . .

I’m not vaccinated but I have recently recovered from Covid, can I use the pass?

The vaccine pass requires one of three things; proof of full Covid vaccination, proof of recent recovery from Covid or proof of a medical exemption (more on that below).

However, the proof of recent recovery must be in an accepted format.

You can find full details on that here, but again it depends on where you tested positive for Covid. If it was in the EU, UK or Schengen zone then you should be able to upload your positive Covid test to the French app. The test must be more than 11 days old, but less than six months old in order to be valid.

If you tested positive outside the EU, you may have a problem. Some countries provide positive tests in a format recognised by France but others – including the USA – do not.

You can find full details of compatible codes HERE.


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Here's an earlier article on "Tennis Majors" from the 19th:

https://www.tennismajors.com/roland-garros-news/atp-inform-players-about-travel-in-france-non-vaccinated-players-will-be-unable-to-compete-529790.html

" The ATP have told their members that as from next week, they will need to be vaccinated if they wish to compete in France... The ATP sent an email with the subject line ‘IMPORTANT: France Vaccination Requirements’ to inform members that they “have been informed by the French Tennis Federation that legislation will soon be passed by the French Government prohibiting non-vaccinated athletes from competing in any sporting event.”

More importantly, the message leaves no hope open to any player having antibodies because of a previous infection if they haven’t received at least one jab.

“It is currently uncertain whether players who have recently recovered from Covid-19 will be allowed to compete unless they have completed at least one dose of a two-dose vaccine,” they write in this email read by Tennis Majors. “Further clarification from the French Government is required.”

[stotty]

Interesting. I always thought this was all a bit fishy. The trouble these days is life is so incredibly forensic. Once they are on to you, there is no escape.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/59999541

[jimlosaltos]

Interesting. I always thought this was all a bit fishy. The trouble these days is life is so incredibly forensic. Once they are on to you, there is no escape.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/59999541

Yup. There were some doubts about the original Spiegel article in Germany using a forensic analysis firm's data, but the BBC lends more credibility and did real research. Serbian govt response was, in part, that the two PCR tests for Djokovic were done on different machines, so the numbers should not correlate.

So, BBC gathered data from numerous tests on many dates at different sites -- and showed every one correlates EXCEPT Djokovic's positive test -- which inexplicably is out of sequence. Here's their graphic of BBC study:

filedata/fetch?id=96529&d=1643396396&type=thumb

[stotty]

Yup. There were some doubts about the original Spiegel article in Germany using a forensic analysis firm's data, but the BBC lends more credibility and did real research. Serbian govt response was, in part, that the two PCR tests for Djokovic were done on different machines, so the numbers should not correlate.

So, BBC gathered data from numerous tests on many dates at different sites -- and showed every one correlates EXCEPT Djokovic's positive test -- which inexplicably is out of sequence. Here's their graphic of BBC study:

I have no problem with anti vaxxers. It's up to them. I see no reason to exclude them because they are far too great in number and have their reasons. So long as they move around in bubbles it's all okay with me. Me, I couldn't get vaccinated and boostered fast enough. I'll go with the science thanks.

I do have a problem with fraudulent PCR tests and faked results. That's just plain wrong. I just wonder if things will get probed further or whether the questions will go unanswered.

[jimlosaltos]

If you were hoping for clarity, my apologies. Good update from Chris Clarey at NYT.

Short version: As the law stands NOW Djokovic's covid-infection exemption would expire before Roland Garros, which is May-June.

Excerpt from NYT:

Chris Clarey summarizes the latest, with lots of variables, of how L'Affaire Djokovic could play out.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/31/s...smid=url-share

"For now, his chances of competing in Paris are unclear.

The French government is banning athletes, both French and foreign, from accessing sports venues or taking part in events if they do not have a vaccination pass. But unvaccinated individuals can still hold a valid pass if they have had a recent coronavirus infection.

For now, the exemption from vaccination is six months from the date of infection, but on Feb. 15, the grace period will be reduced to four months. That would mean Djokovic, who has presented evidence that he tested positive in Serbia on Dec. 16, would be eligible to compete in France until late April without being vaccinated. {My Note: Roland Garros is held May 16 to June 5)

But the French government could change the rules on vaccination passes if case numbers or hospitalizations drop by the spring. The outcome of the French presidential election in April could also affect health policy, and there is the possibility, however remote, that French Open organizers could negotiate an exemption or extension of the grace period for unvaccinated players, even though there are hardly an overwhelming number of unvaccinated tour-level players at this stage.


And: "Djokovic is entered and expected to play in the ATP tournament in Dubai that begins on Feb. 21. But if he remains unvaccinated, he would require an exemption to fly to the United States to compete in March in the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, Calif. and in the Miami Open. A prior coronavirus infection is not grounds for an exemption, but individuals with “documented medical contraindications” to receiving the vaccine can be granted one. It is unclear whether that provision could apply to Djokovic, who also holds a Serbian diplomatic passport, or if he is even interested in traveling to the U.S. in March.

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