Merry Christmas - 2022 Slam Predictions

[jimlosaltos]

Thought you might get a kick out of this tweet. https://twitter.com/RFInvests/status...023136770?s=20

Just the messenger here!

here's a combo.

With an Australian Border Patrol like this no Novaxx Djokcovic is going to sneak by !

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[arturohernandez]

One theory gaining some currency is that Tiley was essentially sneaking players in under the radar. Five other players got similar exemptions because of infection.

BUT then Djokovic went public and blew their cover. Uproar was such that the Victoria govt back off and the PM wasn't going to let his govt take the fall.

So his ego got him in trouble. Had he just stayed quiet, no one might have noticed.

The rules seem to apply until they don't. I am fine with all the top ten players not going. Look what happened at the US Open with the women.

If they are in the top 10, then deny all the visas.

Then we will have a great tournament!

[johnyandell]

Speaking personally I am glad they sent him. home. Well apparently not sent home yet...soon I hope--and anyone else with similar circumstances...

[stroke]

It appears some unvaccinated players were allowed in.

[jimlosaltos]

It appears some unvaccinated players were allowed in.

Yup, at least that is the current online rumor. That theory has it that Tilley tried to sneak 6 players in, but Novak blew their cover by going public with the exemption.

[jimlosaltos]

Just FYI -- Per local TV in AU, Djokovic's lawyers had their first hearing in his appeal of Novak's deportation.
Judge held the case over to Monday, and was dismissive of Tennis Australia's request to "expedite" the trial. Judge: "The tail does not wag the dog."
Local TV:

https://twitter.com/7NewsMelbourne/status/1478995583264178178

I believe the main draw is to be held Monday the 10th.

Judge also admonished Novak's lawyers for not providing documentation to support his case, which they are to provide soon.

No one has confirmed, to my knowledge, that he was granted permission to play at the event despite not being vaccinated because of a prior infection within the last six months, but that is booming the accepted theory, apparently. Some 3-5 other players are rumored to have been admitted to the country and event with similar excuses. Whether the excuse itself is at question, or proof of his excuse is unclear to me.

Novak continues to be confined in a hotel for would be entrants to Australia that are turned back.
His lawyer is apparently some big name that gets $35,000 a day.

So, as the "Happy Slam" progresses, Novak is still not deported and could conceivably emerge from detention as the top seed. Or not.

I haven't seen the oddsmakers book on that event yet <g>.

[arturohernandez]

Just FYI -- Per local TV in AU, Djokovic's lawyers had their first hearing in his appeal of Novak's deportation.
Judge held the case over to Monday, and was dismissive of Tennis Australia's request to "expedite" the trial. Judge: "The tail does not wag the dog."
Local TV:

https://twitter.com/7NewsMelbourne/status/1478995583264178178

I believe the main draw is to be held Monday the 10th.

Judge also admonished Novak's lawyers for not providing documentation to support his case, which they are to provide soon.

No one has confirmed, to my knowledge, that he was granted permission to play at the event despite not being vaccinated because of a prior infection within the last six months, but that is booming the accepted theory, apparently. Some 3-5 other players are rumored to have been admitted to the country and event with similar excuses. Whether the excuse itself is at question, or proof of his excuse is unclear to me.

Novak continues to be confined in a hotel for would be entrants to Australia that are turned back.
His lawyer is apparently some big name that gets $35,000 a day.

So, as the "Happy Slam" progresses, Novak is still not deported and could conceivably emerge from detention as the top seed. Or not.

I haven't seen the oddsmakers book on that event yet <g>.

This is becoming a real circus, isn't i?. My guess is that he will be sent home. Australians are pretty strict with immigration in general and with COVID it is probably more so.

Now he wants to wait in a house that he rented. Mama and Papa Djokovic are calling it political and cruel. A slap against Serbia.

This is very bad PR.

It is also a sign that Djokovic's star may be fading just a bit. The odds of Djokovic staying are 0.

My son likes to paraphrase the senior Roy in Succession as something like the law is people and people can be manipulated. If the judge says, yes, all of Australia will be up in arms. All for a tennis player who tried to skirt the rules. The people have spoken and the law is on their side. No way that he wins.

I would bet $100 that Djokovic will be deported. And I am not a betting man.

[stotty]

A suspicion gaining traction is that Novak had Covid within the last six months, which exempts him. Another 5 players are suspected of creeping in under the same exemption.

When I tried to get to America last month, I had to get a PCR 1 day before the departing. The only caveats were medical exemptions or having proof of contracting Covid within the last 6 months. So it is standard practice and permissible in other countries to have had in the recent past Covid as a basis to enter.

The strength of feeling is incredibly high on the matter that I don't think folk can see straight. And the Australian government have started acting like a police state.

I never got to America because the pilot got Covid and my flight couldn't be rebooked...shame.

[stotty]

As far as I can see Novak is within the rules, rules set by the government. If Novak is to be slung out, then so must the other five who crept in on the same basis...if rumour is to believed.

America has the same rules for those entering the country ,by the way. No Covid pass needed if you can evidence you have had Covid in the last six months.

It's all a storm in a teacup when you consider Omicron is little more than a common cold, if the science is to be believed.

[stotty]

Beyond the Aussie Open it's going to be interesting to see how things play out with Novak. He is stubborn as a mule and comparable to Borg in that sense. Will he back down and get vaccinated when he sees his legacy going down the drain or will he finally relent and get vaccinated. All the slams are likely to want players vaccinated. Boris Johnson, and unusual card to say the least, might urge the UK to carry on as normal now Covid is likely to become a common cold. So SW19 might be Novak's only hope.

By the way, Borg would never have backed down...stubborn to a fault. Novak? Let's wait and see.

[jimlosaltos]

The Prime Minister's office has publicly stated that it notified Craig Tilley and Tennis Australia repeatedly that a prior Covid infection is NOT an exemption that is recognized for and justifies an exemption to enter Australia. The image below is purported to be of just one of the letters sent to Tiley and Tennis Australia. Their conditions are somewhere on this site:

https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/COV...9-vaccinations
https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/v...avellers#toc-4

The only medical exemptions I can find are allergic reactions and extreme conditions such as mental health problems. Australia recognizes far more vaccines for inbound flyers than are allowed for domestic use, most everything except Russia's Sputnik (with good reason). It would be a rare individual indeed that was allergic to every one of them.

But, it gets even more curious. My understanding is that the Australian visa process is automated. Travelers apply online, then Australian Border Patrol checks the substantiating documents on the inbound plane. They checked Novak's and found them inadequate.

Per a major Au paper, Novak's sole paperwork justifying his exemption is a letter from a Serbian doctor -- get ready for this -- on Tennis Australia letterhead.

There are reportedly 3-5 other players that were admitted under the same exemption BUT all of them had "substantial documentation", per AU media. I assume that could be records of medical tests, admissions, treatment. Other reports say that since those have been brought to the ABF's attention, they will review those players' visas and documentation as well.

I'm trying to imagine a situation in which a Serbian MD would write on Tennis Australia letterhead that does not look bad for Craig Tiley and TA. Perhaps my imagination is simply too limited.

This letter, if the real MP document, is dated Nov 29th, long before Djokovic departed Dubai to fly to Melbourne.

Now, not every media report on this subject has been accurate. Presumably, we'll find out when the hearing for Novak's appeal resumes on Monday, AU time. The judge had admonished Novak's lawyers for not providing him with documents to back their case on the first day.


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[jimlosaltos]

And here is the ATAGI list of vaxx exemptions cited in the PM/ Health ministry correspondence to Tilley of Tennis Australia.
Nowhere is "previous covid infection" to be found.

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[jimlosaltos]

As far as I can see Novak is within the rules, rules set by the government. If Novak is to be slung out, then so must the other five who crept in on the same basis...if rumour is to believed.

America has the same rules for those entering the country ,by the way. No Covid pass needed if you can evidence you have had Covid in the last six months.

It's all a storm in a teacup when you consider Omicron is little more than a common cold, if the science is to be believed.

Don't want to argue, and this is a big digression for a tennis site, but Omicron seems far more serious than a common cold -- A much lower percentage get hospitalized than with delta, but we're still talking 100,000s in the US, with some of those ending up in ICU, and some of those probably getting long haul covid, although that can't even be measured yet. The percent is lower, BUT the contagion level is perhaps as high as measles, so a whole lot of people still get seriously ill.

CNBC: "In the two months through November, the data shows that individuals with omicron were 70% less likely to experience severe disease {another study 40% less, yet another 15-25% less) than earlier delta infections. However, among those hospitalized, the risk of severe disease didn’t differ from other variants."

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/23/omicron-variant-has-lower-risk-of-hospitalization-studies-suggest.html

[jimlosaltos]

News broken by Australian Herald confirms much of my post. Here from NZ Herald

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/tennis-leaked-letter-exposes-tennis-australias-culpability-in-novak-djokovic-fiasco/IEAIORGUR7QGUF33LIQIEZED4E/

It increasingly looks as if Tennis Australia under Craig Tiley was deliberately ignoring Australia border regulations, and expecting to get away with it.

The one major rumor that has not yet been confirmed, regards Djokovic using a medical exemption letter purportedly from a Serbian MD but on Tennis Australia letterhead. That wreaks of false documentation.

Full Article fm NZ source since Au paper is paywalled
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


"A leaked document from Tennis Australia (TA) has reportedly shown that the organisation wrongly informed unvaccinated players they could enter the country for the Australian Open if they had caught Covid within the last six months.

The Herald Sun exclusively reported unvaccinated players were told in December they simply needed to prove they'd had the virus within the past six months in order to gain an exemption to enter the country and compete in the year's first grand slam.

That is despite the Federal Government informing Tennis Australia that prior infections were not covered in its guidelines for medical exemptions. Letters from Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt sent to TA in November prove the governing body was aware of this caveat before giving players what is believed to be incorrect advice the following month.

Novak Djokovic's team is believed to have applied for his visa relying on his recent Covid infection — but he had his visa cancelled because this was not a valid reason for a vaccination exemption.

On Friday night it emerged Czech doubles star Renata Voracova had also had her visa cancelled for the same reason as Djokovic and was being detained by Border Force officials at the Park Hotel in Carlton. {My note: She has since left the country voluntarily.}

That is despite the 38-year-old world No. 80 doubles player having already been allowed into the country and even playing an Australian Open warm-up event in Melbourne.

The Tennis Australia letter said players needed an overseas medical exemption certificate and a second exemption either signed off by an Australian medical practitioner or a panel of expert medical personnel.

"Recent PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (after 31 July 2021), where vaccination can be deferred until six months after the infection," it said. "If you fall into this category, please provide laboratory PCR result from the first positive test, antibody levels if available and evidence of any previous or subsequent vaccinations if relevant.

"The current ATAGI guidance for those who have had a recent Covid infection is to be vaccinated once you have recovered from the acute illness.

"It may also assist the independent panel if you can provide a letter from your doctor or public health authority as to why you have not received a full dose of an approved vaccination following Covid-19 infection."

#

[stotty]

Don't want to argue, and this is a big digression for a tennis site, but Omicron seems far more serious than a common cold -- A much lower percentage get hospitalized than with delta, but we're still talking 100,000s in the US, with some of those ending up in ICU, and some of those probably getting long haul covid, although that can't even be measured yet. The percent is lower, BUT the contagion level is perhaps as high as measles, so a whole lot of people still get seriously ill.

CNBC: "In the two months through November, the data shows that individuals with omicron were 70% less likely to experience severe disease {another study 40% less, yet another 15-25% less) than earlier delta infections. However, among those hospitalized, the risk of severe disease didn’t differ from other variants."

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/23/omic...s-suggest.html

Fair point...and I'm not much for arguing. Your facts are doubtless better than mine. What I will say is the death rate over here thus far hasn't moved anywhere near as much as predicted. We are around the toll that we normally get with seasonal flu, which in a bad year will strike down 20,000.

It's still early days yet with Omicron but the thinking here is it's not going to kill too many despite mass infections. My son now has it and is isolating in the loft room of our home. So far, my wife and I have evaded it.

Interesting how this is unfolding with Novak. I bet Tiley wishes Novak had kept his big mouth shut and just quietly entered the country. If the facts are truly those you state from your sources, then you have to believe Novak and the five other players will be on a plane home soon...unless the big shot lawyer can come up with something to justify his salary.

Thanks for all your ferreting around and your fine posts. You are an amazing poster.