Merry Christmas - 2022 Slam Predictions

[johnyandell]

Stotty,
These are best wishes to your child! Keep us posted...

[arturohernandez]

1) Monday. Indeed. As I understand it, Djokovic is the plaintiff and has the burden to prove Australian Border Force's ruling was not appropriate.

Did you know that hearing is actually going to be live streamed? Might get higher ratings than the AO matches <g>.

2) Does vax protect vs Omicron? You know, I really regret bringing covid into this discussion board. I enjoy tennis in good part as a way to get away from this stuff. Hope TPNers blame Novak and not me.

Vaccines often do not provide absolute protection, yet save lives & prevent illness -- flu vaccine, being an example. Yes, people that are fully vaccinated against Covid (whatever that means, 3 shots now, 4 shots by the fall?) can get Omicron. But that doesn't mean they aren't better protected than those that are unvaccinated. Again, people that are vaccinated a) Rarely get severely ill. Almost everyone that is hospitalized for covid in the US is unvaccinated. The main exceptions are those that are immunocompromised or past 60 yo. b) They are less contagious even when vaccinated. That's because they don't stay ill as long and have lower viral loads will ill. That means their vaccinations help protect everybody -- even if they get covid.

I'm vaccinated but getting more paranoid about getting ill traveling or in crowds. One person's view.

3) Herd immunity. I think the medical community has largely given up on ever achieving herd immunity to covid, now that omicron makes covid almost as contagious as the measels. We've never attained herd immunity to the flu, and it's looking unlikely we ever will for covid, barring a further mutation that is lucky.

I'd really like Novak to get deported just so we can go back to tennis here <g>.

~~~~~~~~~~

Update: I hereby declare this my last post about covid on TPN.

Gosh, I feel relieved.

I accept your declaration and second it!

I hereby declare that Scott Gotlieb was right when he said that Covid will burn through the population and this will all be over by January.

The irony is that he said this in November of 2020.

Well, I hereby declare that he was just a year late.

As for Djokovic. Well, my guess is that he has a very weak case. If it were strong, he would have been cleared by now. He is just stalling.

[jimlosaltos]

With Omicron, that finding is fast losing credibility over here. We are a heavily vaccinated country and Omicron has ripped through the population in a mere couple of weeks, passing from one vaccinated person to another like a dose of salts. There is no stopping it whatever you do, unless you take China's path. The US and Britain have chosen their path and it's fingers crossed from now on. We have gone passed the peak and probably heading for herd immunity at this point.

Assuming he knew the result of his PCR on the 16 December, then folk will not take that well. The Serbian population, like a lot of Balkan countries, seem to have a more lax attitude towards the vaccine. Many of the young simply don't want it.

I wonder what will happen on Monday. You would think it unlikely Novak will be allowed to play. I guess a lot will depend on the judge.

1) Monday. Indeed. As I understand it, Djokovic is the plaintiff and has the burden to prove Australian Border Force's ruling was not appropriate.

Did you know that hearing is actually going to be live streamed? Might get higher ratings than the AO matches <g>.

2) Does vax protect vs Omicron? You know, I really regret bringing covid into this discussion board. I enjoy tennis in good part as a way to get away from this stuff. Hope TPNers blame Novak and not me.

Vaccines often do not provide absolute protection, yet save lives & prevent illness -- flu vaccine, being an example. Yes, people that are fully vaccinated against Covid (whatever that means, 3 shots now, 4 shots by the fall?) can get Omicron. But that doesn't mean they aren't better protected than those that are unvaccinated. Again, people that are vaccinated a) Rarely get severely ill. Almost everyone that is hospitalized for covid in the US is unvaccinated. The main exceptions are those that are immunocompromised or past 60 yo. b) They are less contagious even when vaccinated. That's because they don't stay ill as long and have lower viral loads will ill. That means their vaccinations help protect everybody -- even if they get covid.

I'm vaccinated but getting more paranoid about getting ill traveling or in crowds. One person's view.

3) Herd immunity. I think the medical community has largely given up on ever achieving herd immunity to covid, now that omicron makes covid almost as contagious as the measels. We've never attained herd immunity to the flu, and it's looking unlikely we ever will for covid, barring a further mutation that is lucky.

I'd really like Novak to get deported just so we can go back to tennis here <g>.

~~~~~~~~~~

Update: I hereby declare this my last post about covid on TPN.

Gosh, I feel relieved.

[stotty]

Good points BUT being vaccinated DOES protect the vaccinated and others -- even if it is not absolute protection.

With Omicron, that finding is fast losing credibility over here. We are a heavily vaccinated country and Omicron has ripped through the population in a mere couple of weeks, passing from one vaccinated person to another like a dose of salts. There is no stopping it whatever you do, unless you take China's path. The US and Britain have chosen their path and it's fingers crossed from now on. We have gone passed the peak and probably heading for herd immunity at this point.

Latest in Djokoviic Vs Australia.

Per Novak Djokovic's own lawyers, Novak was infected with Covid on December 16th, conveniently in the nick of time to apply for a visa on that grounds while not being contagious by the time he flew. Apparently, his defense is per filings today that the Australian govt's language is ambiguous.

BUT .... people then noted that Djokovic the next day, Dec 17th when he would have known he was contagious, was in public hugging children, shaking hands, speaking in close proximity to others in large public gatherings.

I can't read Serbian, but am told this is a Facebook page from Serbia with dozens of photos of Novak the day after testing positive, per his own lawyers.

Every day, a new twist ...

Assuming he knew the result of his PCR on the 16 December, then folk will not take that well. The Serbian population, like a lot of Balkan countries, seem to have a more lax attitude towards the vaccine. Many of the young simply don't want it.

I wonder what will happen on Monday. You would think it unlikely Novak will be allowed to play. I guess a lot will depend on the judge.

[jimlosaltos]

Latest in Djokoviic Vs Australia.

Per Novak Djokovic's own lawyers, Novak was tested positive for an infection with Covid on December 16th, conveniently in the nick of time to apply for a visa on that grounds while not being contagious by the time he flew. Apparently, his defense is per filings today that the Australian govt's language is ambiguous.

BUT .... people then noted that Djokovic the next day, Dec 17th when he would have known he was contagious, was in public hugging children, shaking hands, speaking in close proximity to others in large public gatherings.

I can't read Serbian, but am told this is a Facebook page from Serbia with dozens of photos of Novak the day after testing positive, per his own lawyers.

Every day, a new twist ...

filedata/fetch?id=96285&d=1641665148&type=thumb

[jimlosaltos]

I'm double vaccinated and recently had a booster. I certainly trust science above hocus pocus. But a lot of people don't want the vaccine. I read somewhere around 50 million Americans don't want to be vaccinated. Around 6 million Brits don't either. That is a lot of people. There is also evidence building that people don't want to be repeatedly vaccinated and already some are declining the booster. People don't want to keep putting stuff in their bodies without good reason.

It's time to be more democratic and inclusive about things. It's not as if the vaccinated aren't acquiring and spreading the virus because they are. My son is vaccinated and yet recently contracted Omicron, which he caught from one his vaccinated friends. All his close circle of vaccinated friends (some 12 of them) have passed it to each other. So there you are. Let's not fool ourselves the vaccinated are protecting others because they clearly aren't.

P.S. I am not a healthcare professional, and don't claim any expertise in the area. Simply sharing what I've read and seen.

Good points BUT being vaccinated DOES protect the vaccinated and others -- even if it is not absolute protection. If someone is vaccinated, they are 1) Far less likely to get infected in most incidents 2) If infected are generally less contagious because they carry a lower viral load 3) Contagious for a shorter period. Omicron alters this but not entirely. Also, in many regions in the US hospitals are being overrun with covid patients -- almost all are unvaccinated.

(I think we've done a far less effective job at getting everyone vaccinated than Britain has. Sorry. )

This varies widely by region. Here in NorCal/ Silicon Valley with 90%+ vaccination rate for those eligible hospitals are doing ok. SF General has only a couple of covid patients. In Detroit, NYC hospitals are inundated. Literally triaging emergency patients.

People that desperately need surgery are literally being turned away because there are not enough beds, nurses or operating rooms (many being diverted to ICU and/or respiratory care). We're also seeing a big surge in children that are too young to be vaccinated, or in an age group that is not widely vaccinated yet, getting ill enough to be admitted to hospitals for treatment. Still, less severe illness than most adults. Then there are the immunocompromised. Friend is going through chemotherapy for cancer. He sees the unvaccinated as literal threats to his life.
.

Update: This is from the wife of a prominent NFL athlete, Raheem Mostert. Raheem is injured but was on the sideline with a group that caught covid at an NFL Game. Their 3 year old had to be taken to the hospital in an ambulance: "If you think #COVID is a joke, this is our sweet G man in an ambulance today after I called 911 bcuz he was lethargic, skin was gray, lips were purple, and had a 103.5 temp"

So, it is a real public health issue.

Friend of mine is a CEO of a hospital chain. The strain he and all the staff are going through dealing with the surge in unvaccinated patients is extraordinary.

[stotty]

Yay! Some debate. Scott Gotlieb, former head of the FDA, called it about a year ago when he said the virus would eventually infect almost everyone since that is what viruses do. He also said that if it somehow mutated to skirt vaccination that it would be less deadly. So that is where we are.

The tricky part is to what extent the sheer numbers overwhelm the hospitals. Not that it is deadlier but just that there are so many people flooding the ICU and hospital at the same time.

I hope that it is on the lower side but I have heard from a colleague at a major university in the US that many of the students are emailing in one class are emailing the professor annoyed at being in the hospital. Again, hospital does not mean death but still not sure why so many are going to the hospital.

Meanwhile, all I hear about around me is about another infection. It is like a blaze, let's just hope that it is benign.

As for Novak, the Washington Post put out an editorial. They criticized him for his magical thinking. Apparently, he once thought that he could purify water with his thoughts. This seems a little far fetched.

But there is something to it. I mean how else could he pull out so many matches that were basically lost. On the court, he just imagines that things will work out. And they often do.

I'm double vaccinated and recently had a booster. I certainly trust science above hocus pocus. But a lot of people don't want the vaccine. I read somewhere around 50 million Americans don't want to be vaccinated. Around 6 million Brits don't either. That is a lot of people. There is also evidence building that people don't want to be repeatedly vaccinated and already some are declining the booster. People don't want to keep putting stuff in their bodies without good reason.

It's time to be more democratic and inclusive about things. It's not as if the vaccinated aren't acquiring and spreading the virus because they are. My son is vaccinated and yet recently contracted Omicron, which he caught from one his vaccinated friends. All his close circle of vaccinated friends (some 12 of them) have passed it to each other. So there you are. Let's not fool ourselves the vaccinated are protecting others because they clearly aren't.

[arturohernandez]

Fair point...and I'm not much for arguing. Your facts are doubtless better than mine. What I will say is the death rate over here thus far hasn't moved anywhere near as much as predicted. We are around the toll that we normally get with seasonal flu, which in a bad year will strike down 20,000.

It's still early days yet with Omicron but the thinking here is it's not going to kill too many despite mass infections. My son now has it and is isolating in the loft room of our home. So far, my wife and I have evaded it.

Interesting how this is unfolding with Novak. I bet Tiley wishes Novak had kept his big mouth shut and just quietly entered the country. If the facts are truly those you state from your sources, then you have to believe Novak and the five other players will be on a plane home soon...unless the big shot lawyer can come up with something to justify his salary.

Thanks for all your ferreting around and your fine posts. You are an amazing poster.

Yay! Some debate. Scott Gotlieb, former head of the FDA, called it about a year ago when he said the virus would eventually infect almost everyone since that is what viruses do. He also said that if it somehow mutated to skirt vaccination that it would be less deadly. So that is where we are.

The tricky part is to what extent the sheer numbers overwhelm the hospitals. Not that it is deadlier but just that there are so many people flooding the ICU and hospital at the same time.

I hope that it is on the lower side but I have heard from a colleague at a major university in the US that many of the students are emailing in one class are emailing the professor annoyed at being in the hospital. Again, hospital does not mean death but still not sure why so many are going to the hospital.

Meanwhile, all I hear about around me is about another infection. It is like a blaze, let's just hope that it is benign.

As for Novak, the Washington Post put out an editorial. They criticized him for his magical thinking. Apparently, he once thought that he could purify water with his thoughts. This seems a little far fetched.

But there is something to it. I mean how else could he pull out so many matches that were basically lost. On the court, he just imagines that things will work out. And they often do.

[jimlosaltos]

Fair point...and I'm not much for arguing. Your facts are doubtless better than mine. What I will say is the death rate over here thus far hasn't moved anywhere near as much as predicted. We are around the toll that we normally get with seasonal flu, which in a bad year will strike down 20,000.

It's still early days yet with Omicron but the thinking here is it's not going to kill too many despite mass infections. My son now has it and is isolating in the loft room of our home. So far, my wife and I have evaded it.

Interesting how this is unfolding with Novak. I bet Tiley wishes Novak had kept his big mouth shut and just quietly entered the country. If the facts are truly those you state from your sources, then you have to believe Novak and the five other players will be on a plane home soon...unless the big shot lawyer can come up with something to justify his salary.

Thanks for all your ferreting around and your fine posts. You are an amazing poster.

Good luck to your son & family. Hope everyone is well soon.

Thanks for the kind words. This topic brought out the OCD in me. Every post or article brought up other questions because nothing added up at first.

Note on the rumored 3-5 other players. Looks now as if there were 2 others that got in on similar grounds, one a WTA doubles player already in matches, the other an official.

Both are supposedly already on their way home.

[stotty]

Don't want to argue, and this is a big digression for a tennis site, but Omicron seems far more serious than a common cold -- A much lower percentage get hospitalized than with delta, but we're still talking 100,000s in the US, with some of those ending up in ICU, and some of those probably getting long haul covid, although that can't even be measured yet. The percent is lower, BUT the contagion level is perhaps as high as measles, so a whole lot of people still get seriously ill.

CNBC: "In the two months through November, the data shows that individuals with omicron were 70% less likely to experience severe disease {another study 40% less, yet another 15-25% less) than earlier delta infections. However, among those hospitalized, the risk of severe disease didn’t differ from other variants."

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/23/omic...s-suggest.html

Fair point...and I'm not much for arguing. Your facts are doubtless better than mine. What I will say is the death rate over here thus far hasn't moved anywhere near as much as predicted. We are around the toll that we normally get with seasonal flu, which in a bad year will strike down 20,000.

It's still early days yet with Omicron but the thinking here is it's not going to kill too many despite mass infections. My son now has it and is isolating in the loft room of our home. So far, my wife and I have evaded it.

Interesting how this is unfolding with Novak. I bet Tiley wishes Novak had kept his big mouth shut and just quietly entered the country. If the facts are truly those you state from your sources, then you have to believe Novak and the five other players will be on a plane home soon...unless the big shot lawyer can come up with something to justify his salary.

Thanks for all your ferreting around and your fine posts. You are an amazing poster.

[jimlosaltos]

News broken by Australian Herald confirms much of my post. Here from NZ Herald

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/tennis-leaked-letter-exposes-tennis-australias-culpability-in-novak-djokovic-fiasco/IEAIORGUR7QGUF33LIQIEZED4E/

It increasingly looks as if Tennis Australia under Craig Tiley was deliberately ignoring Australia border regulations, and expecting to get away with it.

The one major rumor that has not yet been confirmed, regards Djokovic using a medical exemption letter purportedly from a Serbian MD but on Tennis Australia letterhead. That wreaks of false documentation.

Full Article fm NZ source since Au paper is paywalled
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


"A leaked document from Tennis Australia (TA) has reportedly shown that the organisation wrongly informed unvaccinated players they could enter the country for the Australian Open if they had caught Covid within the last six months.

The Herald Sun exclusively reported unvaccinated players were told in December they simply needed to prove they'd had the virus within the past six months in order to gain an exemption to enter the country and compete in the year's first grand slam.

That is despite the Federal Government informing Tennis Australia that prior infections were not covered in its guidelines for medical exemptions. Letters from Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt sent to TA in November prove the governing body was aware of this caveat before giving players what is believed to be incorrect advice the following month.

Novak Djokovic's team is believed to have applied for his visa relying on his recent Covid infection — but he had his visa cancelled because this was not a valid reason for a vaccination exemption.

On Friday night it emerged Czech doubles star Renata Voracova had also had her visa cancelled for the same reason as Djokovic and was being detained by Border Force officials at the Park Hotel in Carlton. {My note: She has since left the country voluntarily.}

That is despite the 38-year-old world No. 80 doubles player having already been allowed into the country and even playing an Australian Open warm-up event in Melbourne.

The Tennis Australia letter said players needed an overseas medical exemption certificate and a second exemption either signed off by an Australian medical practitioner or a panel of expert medical personnel.

"Recent PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (after 31 July 2021), where vaccination can be deferred until six months after the infection," it said. "If you fall into this category, please provide laboratory PCR result from the first positive test, antibody levels if available and evidence of any previous or subsequent vaccinations if relevant.

"The current ATAGI guidance for those who have had a recent Covid infection is to be vaccinated once you have recovered from the acute illness.

"It may also assist the independent panel if you can provide a letter from your doctor or public health authority as to why you have not received a full dose of an approved vaccination following Covid-19 infection."

#

[jimlosaltos]

As far as I can see Novak is within the rules, rules set by the government. If Novak is to be slung out, then so must the other five who crept in on the same basis...if rumour is to believed.

America has the same rules for those entering the country ,by the way. No Covid pass needed if you can evidence you have had Covid in the last six months.

It's all a storm in a teacup when you consider Omicron is little more than a common cold, if the science is to be believed.

Don't want to argue, and this is a big digression for a tennis site, but Omicron seems far more serious than a common cold -- A much lower percentage get hospitalized than with delta, but we're still talking 100,000s in the US, with some of those ending up in ICU, and some of those probably getting long haul covid, although that can't even be measured yet. The percent is lower, BUT the contagion level is perhaps as high as measles, so a whole lot of people still get seriously ill.

CNBC: "In the two months through November, the data shows that individuals with omicron were 70% less likely to experience severe disease {another study 40% less, yet another 15-25% less) than earlier delta infections. However, among those hospitalized, the risk of severe disease didn’t differ from other variants."

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/23/omicron-variant-has-lower-risk-of-hospitalization-studies-suggest.html

[jimlosaltos]

And here is the ATAGI list of vaxx exemptions cited in the PM/ Health ministry correspondence to Tilley of Tennis Australia.
Nowhere is "previous covid infection" to be found.

filedata/fetch?id=96272&d=1641582968&type=thumb

[jimlosaltos]

The Prime Minister's office has publicly stated that it notified Craig Tilley and Tennis Australia repeatedly that a prior Covid infection is NOT an exemption that is recognized for and justifies an exemption to enter Australia. The image below is purported to be of just one of the letters sent to Tiley and Tennis Australia. Their conditions are somewhere on this site:

https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/COV...9-vaccinations
https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/v...avellers#toc-4

The only medical exemptions I can find are allergic reactions and extreme conditions such as mental health problems. Australia recognizes far more vaccines for inbound flyers than are allowed for domestic use, most everything except Russia's Sputnik (with good reason). It would be a rare individual indeed that was allergic to every one of them.

But, it gets even more curious. My understanding is that the Australian visa process is automated. Travelers apply online, then Australian Border Patrol checks the substantiating documents on the inbound plane. They checked Novak's and found them inadequate.

Per a major Au paper, Novak's sole paperwork justifying his exemption is a letter from a Serbian doctor -- get ready for this -- on Tennis Australia letterhead.

There are reportedly 3-5 other players that were admitted under the same exemption BUT all of them had "substantial documentation", per AU media. I assume that could be records of medical tests, admissions, treatment. Other reports say that since those have been brought to the ABF's attention, they will review those players' visas and documentation as well.

I'm trying to imagine a situation in which a Serbian MD would write on Tennis Australia letterhead that does not look bad for Craig Tiley and TA. Perhaps my imagination is simply too limited.

This letter, if the real MP document, is dated Nov 29th, long before Djokovic departed Dubai to fly to Melbourne.

Now, not every media report on this subject has been accurate. Presumably, we'll find out when the hearing for Novak's appeal resumes on Monday, AU time. The judge had admonished Novak's lawyers for not providing him with documents to back their case on the first day.


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[stotty]

Beyond the Aussie Open it's going to be interesting to see how things play out with Novak. He is stubborn as a mule and comparable to Borg in that sense. Will he back down and get vaccinated when he sees his legacy going down the drain or will he finally relent and get vaccinated. All the slams are likely to want players vaccinated. Boris Johnson, and unusual card to say the least, might urge the UK to carry on as normal now Covid is likely to become a common cold. So SW19 might be Novak's only hope.

By the way, Borg would never have backed down...stubborn to a fault. Novak? Let's wait and see.