Merry Christmas - 2022 Slam Predictions

[jimlosaltos]

Fair point...and I'm not much for arguing. Your facts are doubtless better than mine. What I will say is the death rate over here thus far hasn't moved anywhere near as much as predicted. We are around the toll that we normally get with seasonal flu, which in a bad year will strike down 20,000.

It's still early days yet with Omicron but the thinking here is it's not going to kill too many despite mass infections. My son now has it and is isolating in the loft room of our home. So far, my wife and I have evaded it.

Interesting how this is unfolding with Novak. I bet Tiley wishes Novak had kept his big mouth shut and just quietly entered the country. If the facts are truly those you state from your sources, then you have to believe Novak and the five other players will be on a plane home soon...unless the big shot lawyer can come up with something to justify his salary.

Thanks for all your ferreting around and your fine posts. You are an amazing poster.

Good luck to your son & family. Hope everyone is well soon.

Thanks for the kind words. This topic brought out the OCD in me. Every post or article brought up other questions because nothing added up at first.

Note on the rumored 3-5 other players. Looks now as if there were 2 others that got in on similar grounds, one a WTA doubles player already in matches, the other an official.

Both are supposedly already on their way home.

[arturohernandez]

Fair point...and I'm not much for arguing. Your facts are doubtless better than mine. What I will say is the death rate over here thus far hasn't moved anywhere near as much as predicted. We are around the toll that we normally get with seasonal flu, which in a bad year will strike down 20,000.

It's still early days yet with Omicron but the thinking here is it's not going to kill too many despite mass infections. My son now has it and is isolating in the loft room of our home. So far, my wife and I have evaded it.

Interesting how this is unfolding with Novak. I bet Tiley wishes Novak had kept his big mouth shut and just quietly entered the country. If the facts are truly those you state from your sources, then you have to believe Novak and the five other players will be on a plane home soon...unless the big shot lawyer can come up with something to justify his salary.

Thanks for all your ferreting around and your fine posts. You are an amazing poster.

Yay! Some debate. Scott Gotlieb, former head of the FDA, called it about a year ago when he said the virus would eventually infect almost everyone since that is what viruses do. He also said that if it somehow mutated to skirt vaccination that it would be less deadly. So that is where we are.

The tricky part is to what extent the sheer numbers overwhelm the hospitals. Not that it is deadlier but just that there are so many people flooding the ICU and hospital at the same time.

I hope that it is on the lower side but I have heard from a colleague at a major university in the US that many of the students are emailing in one class are emailing the professor annoyed at being in the hospital. Again, hospital does not mean death but still not sure why so many are going to the hospital.

Meanwhile, all I hear about around me is about another infection. It is like a blaze, let's just hope that it is benign.

As for Novak, the Washington Post put out an editorial. They criticized him for his magical thinking. Apparently, he once thought that he could purify water with his thoughts. This seems a little far fetched.

But there is something to it. I mean how else could he pull out so many matches that were basically lost. On the court, he just imagines that things will work out. And they often do.

[stotty]

Yay! Some debate. Scott Gotlieb, former head of the FDA, called it about a year ago when he said the virus would eventually infect almost everyone since that is what viruses do. He also said that if it somehow mutated to skirt vaccination that it would be less deadly. So that is where we are.

The tricky part is to what extent the sheer numbers overwhelm the hospitals. Not that it is deadlier but just that there are so many people flooding the ICU and hospital at the same time.

I hope that it is on the lower side but I have heard from a colleague at a major university in the US that many of the students are emailing in one class are emailing the professor annoyed at being in the hospital. Again, hospital does not mean death but still not sure why so many are going to the hospital.

Meanwhile, all I hear about around me is about another infection. It is like a blaze, let's just hope that it is benign.

As for Novak, the Washington Post put out an editorial. They criticized him for his magical thinking. Apparently, he once thought that he could purify water with his thoughts. This seems a little far fetched.

But there is something to it. I mean how else could he pull out so many matches that were basically lost. On the court, he just imagines that things will work out. And they often do.

I'm double vaccinated and recently had a booster. I certainly trust science above hocus pocus. But a lot of people don't want the vaccine. I read somewhere around 50 million Americans don't want to be vaccinated. Around 6 million Brits don't either. That is a lot of people. There is also evidence building that people don't want to be repeatedly vaccinated and already some are declining the booster. People don't want to keep putting stuff in their bodies without good reason.

It's time to be more democratic and inclusive about things. It's not as if the vaccinated aren't acquiring and spreading the virus because they are. My son is vaccinated and yet recently contracted Omicron, which he caught from one his vaccinated friends. All his close circle of vaccinated friends (some 12 of them) have passed it to each other. So there you are. Let's not fool ourselves the vaccinated are protecting others because they clearly aren't.

[jimlosaltos]

I'm double vaccinated and recently had a booster. I certainly trust science above hocus pocus. But a lot of people don't want the vaccine. I read somewhere around 50 million Americans don't want to be vaccinated. Around 6 million Brits don't either. That is a lot of people. There is also evidence building that people don't want to be repeatedly vaccinated and already some are declining the booster. People don't want to keep putting stuff in their bodies without good reason.

It's time to be more democratic and inclusive about things. It's not as if the vaccinated aren't acquiring and spreading the virus because they are. My son is vaccinated and yet recently contracted Omicron, which he caught from one his vaccinated friends. All his close circle of vaccinated friends (some 12 of them) have passed it to each other. So there you are. Let's not fool ourselves the vaccinated are protecting others because they clearly aren't.

P.S. I am not a healthcare professional, and don't claim any expertise in the area. Simply sharing what I've read and seen.

Good points BUT being vaccinated DOES protect the vaccinated and others -- even if it is not absolute protection. If someone is vaccinated, they are 1) Far less likely to get infected in most incidents 2) If infected are generally less contagious because they carry a lower viral load 3) Contagious for a shorter period. Omicron alters this but not entirely. Also, in many regions in the US hospitals are being overrun with covid patients -- almost all are unvaccinated.

(I think we've done a far less effective job at getting everyone vaccinated than Britain has. Sorry. )

This varies widely by region. Here in NorCal/ Silicon Valley with 90%+ vaccination rate for those eligible hospitals are doing ok. SF General has only a couple of covid patients. In Detroit, NYC hospitals are inundated. Literally triaging emergency patients.

People that desperately need surgery are literally being turned away because there are not enough beds, nurses or operating rooms (many being diverted to ICU and/or respiratory care). We're also seeing a big surge in children that are too young to be vaccinated, or in an age group that is not widely vaccinated yet, getting ill enough to be admitted to hospitals for treatment. Still, less severe illness than most adults. Then there are the immunocompromised. Friend is going through chemotherapy for cancer. He sees the unvaccinated as literal threats to his life.
.

Update: This is from the wife of a prominent NFL athlete, Raheem Mostert. Raheem is injured but was on the sideline with a group that caught covid at an NFL Game. Their 3 year old had to be taken to the hospital in an ambulance: "If you think #COVID is a joke, this is our sweet G man in an ambulance today after I called 911 bcuz he was lethargic, skin was gray, lips were purple, and had a 103.5 temp"

So, it is a real public health issue.

Friend of mine is a CEO of a hospital chain. The strain he and all the staff are going through dealing with the surge in unvaccinated patients is extraordinary.

[jimlosaltos]

Latest in Djokoviic Vs Australia.

Per Novak Djokovic's own lawyers, Novak was tested positive for an infection with Covid on December 16th, conveniently in the nick of time to apply for a visa on that grounds while not being contagious by the time he flew. Apparently, his defense is per filings today that the Australian govt's language is ambiguous.

BUT .... people then noted that Djokovic the next day, Dec 17th when he would have known he was contagious, was in public hugging children, shaking hands, speaking in close proximity to others in large public gatherings.

I can't read Serbian, but am told this is a Facebook page from Serbia with dozens of photos of Novak the day after testing positive, per his own lawyers.

Every day, a new twist ...

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[stotty]

Good points BUT being vaccinated DOES protect the vaccinated and others -- even if it is not absolute protection.

With Omicron, that finding is fast losing credibility over here. We are a heavily vaccinated country and Omicron has ripped through the population in a mere couple of weeks, passing from one vaccinated person to another like a dose of salts. There is no stopping it whatever you do, unless you take China's path. The US and Britain have chosen their path and it's fingers crossed from now on. We have gone passed the peak and probably heading for herd immunity at this point.

Latest in Djokoviic Vs Australia.

Per Novak Djokovic's own lawyers, Novak was infected with Covid on December 16th, conveniently in the nick of time to apply for a visa on that grounds while not being contagious by the time he flew. Apparently, his defense is per filings today that the Australian govt's language is ambiguous.

BUT .... people then noted that Djokovic the next day, Dec 17th when he would have known he was contagious, was in public hugging children, shaking hands, speaking in close proximity to others in large public gatherings.

I can't read Serbian, but am told this is a Facebook page from Serbia with dozens of photos of Novak the day after testing positive, per his own lawyers.

Every day, a new twist ...

Assuming he knew the result of his PCR on the 16 December, then folk will not take that well. The Serbian population, like a lot of Balkan countries, seem to have a more lax attitude towards the vaccine. Many of the young simply don't want it.

I wonder what will happen on Monday. You would think it unlikely Novak will be allowed to play. I guess a lot will depend on the judge.

[jimlosaltos]

With Omicron, that finding is fast losing credibility over here. We are a heavily vaccinated country and Omicron has ripped through the population in a mere couple of weeks, passing from one vaccinated person to another like a dose of salts. There is no stopping it whatever you do, unless you take China's path. The US and Britain have chosen their path and it's fingers crossed from now on. We have gone passed the peak and probably heading for herd immunity at this point.

Assuming he knew the result of his PCR on the 16 December, then folk will not take that well. The Serbian population, like a lot of Balkan countries, seem to have a more lax attitude towards the vaccine. Many of the young simply don't want it.

I wonder what will happen on Monday. You would think it unlikely Novak will be allowed to play. I guess a lot will depend on the judge.

1) Monday. Indeed. As I understand it, Djokovic is the plaintiff and has the burden to prove Australian Border Force's ruling was not appropriate.

Did you know that hearing is actually going to be live streamed? Might get higher ratings than the AO matches <g>.

2) Does vax protect vs Omicron? You know, I really regret bringing covid into this discussion board. I enjoy tennis in good part as a way to get away from this stuff. Hope TPNers blame Novak and not me.

Vaccines often do not provide absolute protection, yet save lives & prevent illness -- flu vaccine, being an example. Yes, people that are fully vaccinated against Covid (whatever that means, 3 shots now, 4 shots by the fall?) can get Omicron. But that doesn't mean they aren't better protected than those that are unvaccinated. Again, people that are vaccinated a) Rarely get severely ill. Almost everyone that is hospitalized for covid in the US is unvaccinated. The main exceptions are those that are immunocompromised or past 60 yo. b) They are less contagious even when vaccinated. That's because they don't stay ill as long and have lower viral loads will ill. That means their vaccinations help protect everybody -- even if they get covid.

I'm vaccinated but getting more paranoid about getting ill traveling or in crowds. One person's view.

3) Herd immunity. I think the medical community has largely given up on ever achieving herd immunity to covid, now that omicron makes covid almost as contagious as the measels. We've never attained herd immunity to the flu, and it's looking unlikely we ever will for covid, barring a further mutation that is lucky.

I'd really like Novak to get deported just so we can go back to tennis here <g>.

~~~~~~~~~~

Update: I hereby declare this my last post about covid on TPN.

Gosh, I feel relieved.

[arturohernandez]

1) Monday. Indeed. As I understand it, Djokovic is the plaintiff and has the burden to prove Australian Border Force's ruling was not appropriate.

Did you know that hearing is actually going to be live streamed? Might get higher ratings than the AO matches <g>.

2) Does vax protect vs Omicron? You know, I really regret bringing covid into this discussion board. I enjoy tennis in good part as a way to get away from this stuff. Hope TPNers blame Novak and not me.

Vaccines often do not provide absolute protection, yet save lives & prevent illness -- flu vaccine, being an example. Yes, people that are fully vaccinated against Covid (whatever that means, 3 shots now, 4 shots by the fall?) can get Omicron. But that doesn't mean they aren't better protected than those that are unvaccinated. Again, people that are vaccinated a) Rarely get severely ill. Almost everyone that is hospitalized for covid in the US is unvaccinated. The main exceptions are those that are immunocompromised or past 60 yo. b) They are less contagious even when vaccinated. That's because they don't stay ill as long and have lower viral loads will ill. That means their vaccinations help protect everybody -- even if they get covid.

I'm vaccinated but getting more paranoid about getting ill traveling or in crowds. One person's view.

3) Herd immunity. I think the medical community has largely given up on ever achieving herd immunity to covid, now that omicron makes covid almost as contagious as the measels. We've never attained herd immunity to the flu, and it's looking unlikely we ever will for covid, barring a further mutation that is lucky.

I'd really like Novak to get deported just so we can go back to tennis here <g>.

~~~~~~~~~~

Update: I hereby declare this my last post about covid on TPN.

Gosh, I feel relieved.

I accept your declaration and second it!

I hereby declare that Scott Gotlieb was right when he said that Covid will burn through the population and this will all be over by January.

The irony is that he said this in November of 2020.

Well, I hereby declare that he was just a year late.

As for Djokovic. Well, my guess is that he has a very weak case. If it were strong, he would have been cleared by now. He is just stalling.

[johnyandell]

Stotty,
These are best wishes to your child! Keep us posted...

[glacierguy]

This is my first and last Covid-related post. Data from Bloomberg. 2 days ago.

[arturohernandez]

This is my first and last Covid-related post. Data from Bloomberg. 2 days ago.

A tablespoon of sugar...

[jimlosaltos]

In case anyone somehow missed it, Djokovic won his appeal.
.

Federal Circuit Court judge Anthony Kelly then ordered that the minister for home affairs’ decision to cancel the visa be reversed and that Djokovic should be released from immigration detention.

The main reason for the concession was that Djokovic was not given enough time to seek advice and respond to the intention to cancel the visa when he was detained at Melbourne airport

Immigration authorities can seize his visa again, and the Home office has not said if it intends to or not.

Novak's family held a press conference. When asked if Novak was truly infectious on Dec. 16th, why did he start a series public of events from Dec. 17th on, all maskless, including hugging children, shaking hands, selfies at a basketball game with a player than promptly went on Covid reserve, and press interviews with L'Equipe and others. The family stopped the presser there.

Interest in the case was high enough that viewers overwhelmed the live feed, causing the judge to have Novak moved to another site where he could log in.

"Happy Slam"?

[stotty]

In case anyone somehow missed it, Djokovic won his appeal.
.

Federal Circuit Court judge Anthony Kelly then ordered that the minister for home affairs’ decision to cancel the visa be reversed and that Djokovic should be released from immigration detention.

The main reason for the concession was that Djokovic was not given enough time to seek advice and respond to the intention to cancel the visa when he was detained at Melbourne airport

Immigration authorities can seize his visa again, and the Home office has not said if it intends to or not.

Novak's family held a press conference. When asked if Novak was truly infectious on Dec. 16th, why did he start a series public of events from Dec. 17th on, all maskless, including hugging children, shaking hands, selfies at a basketball game with a player than promptly went on Covid reserve, and press interviews with L'Equipe and others. The family stopped the presser there.

Interest in the case was high enough that viewers overwhelmed the live feed, causing the judge to have Novak moved to another site where he could log in.

"Happy Slam"?

The government is apparently seething at the judge's swift and one-sided verdict on the situation. It will be hard for the government to cancel Novak's visa for a second time without looking ridiculous and seeming to disregard the rule of law. I wouldn't put it past them to cancel the visa again, however.

[jimlosaltos]

The government is apparently seething at the judge's swift and one-sided verdict on the situation. It will be hard for the government to cancel Novak's visa for a second time without looking ridiculous and seeming to disregard the rule of law. I wouldn't put it past them to cancel the visa again, however.

I wonder how many of the would-be immigrants in the same hotel, some that have been there for many months, would be allowed into Australia if the same standards were enforced for them?

By the way, the Aussie taxpayer has to pick up the bill for Novak's $35,000 a day barrister.

[arturohernandez]

I wonder how many of the would-be immigrants in the same hotel, some that have been there for many months, would be allowed into Australia if the same standards were enforced for them?

By the way, the Aussie taxpayer has to pick up the bill for Novak's $35,000 a day barrister.

I guess the rules don't apply to everyone equally. Talk about a fumble by the government. This adds even more drama to the AO.

I am guessing that Novaxx might make so many enemies that he helps Novak win the AO. Of course, every one of his opponents will be working to take him down with just a little bit less respect.

The four days of unintended rest and stress probably did not help either.

What do you guys think his odds are?