Is Big 3's New Pecking Order: Meddy, Zverev then Djokovic?

[jimlosaltos]

Is the ATP's new Big 3 pecking order: 1) Medvedev 2) Zverev 3) Djokovic? Or 1) Zverev 2) Meddy 3) Djoko? A top player can get hot and win an event but 6 months is a trend. Zverev has most titles, Meddy most points & 'Slam. Both have beaten Djokovic since Wimbledon.

Notes: ATP used to award ranking points for Olympic medals but did NOT this year. So, Medvedev has the most points over last 1/2 of this year, and a 'Slam, but Zverev has 3 titles if you include Olympic Gold, which is not an ATP event. Novak played fewer events. No guarantees on my math. Copy editing is an optional assignment for the cautious reader <g>

At times Novak looked unbeatable -- until he was overwhelmed. I'll toss out a premature idea here. I'm not yet ready to assert this, just digesting it so far. Djokovic used to win by starting with the best service return in tennis, then backing that up with ball-machine consistency led by arguably the best backhand in tennis.

Novak's return hasn't been the top rated on the ATP since 2015, and more players are going toe-to-toe with his backhand and winning: Zverev, Medvedev, Aslan Karatsev amongst them. That's been covered up by Novak's significantly improved first serve in the last two years under serve-whisperer Goran Ivanisevic, who did the same for Marin Cilic's one slam win. But he's no longer dominating points behind his second serve, even when winning.

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[stroke]

Right now, I would rate them at their absolute best, Novak, Zverev, Medvedev. Except at RG, I have Novak, Nadal, Alcaraz, Ruud.

[arturohernandez]

This is hard question to answer. I think we should consider Djokovic and his fate going forward. To me it looks like Medvedev and Zverev will be putting pressure on each other for some time to come. In best of 5, I am still a little skeptical that Zverev can play his style and win at the majors.

Back to Djokovic. He seems to be making the kind of transition that Federer made a few years back. Basically, he has to win more quick points to save his body. The emphasis on improving his serve makes sense. It is something that allows him to win without wearing himself out.

The problem is that he will have to face younger players in best of 5 matches. He will not be able to grind them out any more. We saw the result of him trying to do this at the US Open.

What he did will only get harder. So he will have to attack more. If he manages to play more aggressive and take a book out of Federer or Sampras's book, then it will be even more impressive.

But at this point, the fear is gone. In 1984, McEnroe basically said he was up a set and a break when he walked on the court. Then it all changed very quickly.

People lost their fear and Mac lost his edge. Today is different and athletes keep reinventing themselves (look at Tom Brady).

The real question is whether Djokovic can keep reinventing himself or not. And if he does, can he actually pull off one or two more majors.

I put it at 50/50 at this point.

BTW, I think that Nadal and Federer will come back very diminished. The younger generation is ready to move on.

I have been watching Djokovic keep winning for the last few years, waiting for his level to drop.

We will see how my views hold up in 6 mos. I am starting to feel like the guy who has predicted 9 of the last 2 recessions.

[arturohernandez]

Is the ATP's new Big 3 pecking order: 1) Medvedev 2) Zverev 3) Djokovic? Or 1) Zverev 2) Meddy 3) Djoko? A top player can get hot and win an event but 6 months is a trend. Zverev has most titles, Meddy most points & 'Slam. Both have beaten Djokovic since Wimbledon.

Notes: ATP used to award ranking points for Olympic medals but did NOT this year. So, Medvedev has the most points over last 1/2 of this year, and a 'Slam, but Zverev has 3 titles if you include Olympic Gold, which is not an ATP event. Novak played fewer events. No guarantees on my math. Copy editing is an optional assignment for the cautious reader <g>

At times Novak looked unbeatable -- until he was overwhelmed. I'll toss out a premature idea here. I'm not yet ready to assert this, just digesting it so far. Djokovic used to win by starting with the best service return in tennis, then backing that up with ball-machine consistency led by arguably the best backhand in tennis.

Novak's return hasn't been the top rated on the ATP since 2015, and more players are going toe-to-toe with his backhand and winning: Zverev, Medvedev, Aslan Karatsev amongst them. That's been covered up by Novak's significantly improved first serve in the last two years under serve-whisperer Goran Ivanisevic, who did the same for Marin Cilic's one slam win. But he's no longer dominating points behind his second serve, even when winning.

filedata/fetch?id=96011&d=1637608664&type=thumb

Great post and great analysis!

[stotty]

Is the ATP's new Big 3 pecking order: 1) Medvedev 2) Zverev 3) Djokovic? Or 1) Zverev 2) Meddy 3) Djoko? A top player can get hot and win an event but 6 months is a trend. Zverev has most titles, Meddy most points & 'Slam. Both have beaten Djokovic since Wimbledon.

Notes: ATP used to award ranking points for Olympic medals but did NOT this year. So, Medvedev has the most points over last 1/2 of this year, and a 'Slam, but Zverev has 3 titles if you include Olympic Gold, which is not an ATP event. Novak played fewer events. No guarantees on my math. Copy editing is an optional assignment for the cautious reader <g>

At times Novak looked unbeatable -- until he was overwhelmed. I'll toss out a premature idea here. I'm not yet ready to assert this, just digesting it so far. Djokovic used to win by starting with the best service return in tennis, then backing that up with ball-machine consistency led by arguably the best backhand in tennis.

Novak's return hasn't been the top rated on the ATP since 2015, and more players are going toe-to-toe with his backhand and winning: Zverev, Medvedev, Aslan Karatsev amongst them. That's been covered up by Novak's significantly improved first serve in the last two years under serve-whisperer Goran Ivanisevic, who did the same for Marin Cilic's one slam win. But he's no longer dominating points behind his second serve, even when winning.

That's an interesting way of looking at it. It's been that way for quite some time, though, and Novak has been occasionally overwhelmed in the past by the biggest of hitters. I have long said hitting through Novak is the only way to do it. The consistency thing is interesting. He has always been more consistent than the majority of players on the tour, but bails out in rallies and rope-a-dopes against the odd few capable of staying with him, and that is when, and only when, he'll go for more or change up his game. Look how well he goes toe-to-toe with Nadal and out manoeuvres him. He 's the only player in the last fifteen years who has been able to sustain rallies with Nadal on clay and get results...at least some results. No one else has!

Novak has the weirdest temperament I have ever come across. He starts bailing out...then caves in...then he stops caving and plays unreal...then he rope-a-dopes...then he plays lockdown tennis like no one else on earth.

What you highlight has been going on for years. Zverev ain't going to play like that week in and week out, and Novak's tidier technically than Meddy when he moves him around like in Paris...but granted, he can't rally with Meddy, whose shot tolerance is probably the highest despite his flappy technique. Meddy's ball control is something else.

1. Novak
2. Meddy
3. Zverev

I am not sure where Nadal will figure when he finally comes back.

Above all else, Novak is a big time player. He muddles though matches less tidily than Nadal or Roger but nearly always gets there in the end. He tends to save his best until last and his take down of Meddy at the Aussie Open highlighted how well he responds to what was, at the time, a huge threat to his dominance in the game. Most thought Meddy was ripe to win that match, except Novak.

Excellent point you make about Novak's serve. He served brilliantly in the first and second set against Zverev, the best I ever seen him serve. His placement was superb. At 34, he certainly needs to be doing plenty more of that.

Another interesting thing about Novak is he that has gone from being clueless at he net to reasonable. So long as the ball is above the height of the net and doesn't require intricacy, he is volleying well enough these days to win the majority of points when he moves in. Makes you wonder how Sampras would fair against these guys who stand miles behind the baseline to return.

Novak is only interested in one thing at this point: slams. All the rest is limbering up.

[jimlosaltos]

This is hard question to answer. I think we should consider Djokovic and his fate going forward. To me it looks like Medvedev and Zverev will be putting pressure on each other for some time to come. In best of 5, I am still a little skeptical that Zverev can play his style and win at the majors.

Back to Djokovic. He seems to be making the kind of transition that Federer made a few years back. Basically, he has to win more quick points to save his body. The emphasis on improving his serve makes sense. It is something that allows him to win without wearing himself out.

The problem is that he will have to face younger players in best of 5 matches. He will not be able to grind them out any more. We saw the result of him trying to do this at the US Open.

What he did will only get harder. So he will have to attack more. If he manages to play more aggressive and take a book out of Federer or Sampras's book, then it will be even more impressive.

But at this point, the fear is gone. In 1984, McEnroe basically said he was up a set and a break when he walked on the court. Then it all changed very quickly.

People lost their fear and Mac lost his edge. Today is different and athletes keep reinventing themselves (look at Tom Brady).

The real question is whether Djokovic can keep reinventing himself or not. And if he does, can he actually pull off one or two more majors.

I put it at 50/50 at this point.

BTW, I think that Nadal and Federer will come back very diminished. The younger generation is ready to move on.

I have been watching Djokovic keep winning for the last few years, waiting for his level to drop.

We will see how my views hold up in 6 mos. I am starting to feel like the guy who has predicted 9 of the last 2 recessions.

Great analysis. I'd add that as the youngest of the Big 3, Djoko is attempting a similar but different transition than both Fed and Rafa made. I remember watching Rafa practice years back, where the drill was literally hitting nothing but forehands on balls fed across the entire court. As his knees and back began aching, he's made several changes. 1) Hits more backhands and has improved his backhand substantially, 2) Gone big earlier 3) Improved his first serve under Carlos Moya.

Same but different: Fed went back to his roots and started coming to the net more. And, of course, the Black RF 97 !

Djokovic will still be the favorite at the Australian (when he finally caves and decides to show up), and at Wimbledon. But by the US Open, I'd be surprised if he is the betters' favorite.

The biggest advantage Zverev has over Medvedev in potentially rising to the top, IMHO, is that he's happy on clay, Meddy hates it -- basically throws away one season's ranking points.

As for Fedal -- IMHO we'll be lucky just to see Fed come back and make a bow (Laver Cup in London then Halle?). But Rafa's injury is nowhere near as serious and something he has fully recovered from before. So, I still see Rafa as the favorite at Roland Garros. Thiem, in fact, might have a much more difficult recovery than Rafa. When I saw where he hurt his wrist, I immediately thought of Delpo, who lost years of his career to wrist injury, and Andy Murray, who lost a year.

[jimlosaltos]

Great post and great analysis!

Thank you!

[stroke]

That's an interesting way of looking at it. It's been that way for quite some time, though, and Novak has been occasionally overwhelmed in the past by the biggest of hitters. I have long said hitting through Novak is the only way to do it. The consistency thing is interesting. He has always been more consistent than the majority of players on the tour, but bails out in rallies and rope-a-dopes against the odd few capable of staying with him, and that is when, and only when, he'll go for more or change up his game. Look how well he goes toe-to-toe with Nadal and out manoeuvres him. He 's the only player in the last fifteen years who has been able to sustain rallies with Nadal on clay and get results...at least some results. No one else has!

Novak has the weirdest temperament I have ever come across. He starts bailing out...then caves in...then he stops caving and plays unreal...then he rope-a-dopes...then he plays lockdown tennis like no one else on earth.

What you highlight has been going on for years. Zverev ain't going to play like that week in and week out, and Novak's tidier technically than Meddy when he moves him around like in Paris...but granted, he can't rally with Meddy, whose shot tolerance is probably the highest despite his flappy technique. Meddy's ball control is something else.

1. Novak
2. Meddy
3. Zverev

I am not sure where Nadal will figure when he finally comes back.

Above all else, Novak is a big time player. He muddles though matches less tidily than Nadal or Roger but nearly always gets there in the end. He tends to save his best until last and his take down of Meddy at the Aussie Open highlighted how well he responds to what was, at the time, a huge threat to his dominance in the game. Most thought Meddy was ripe to win that match, except Novak.

Excellent point you make about Novak's serve. He served brilliantly in the first and second set against Zverev, the best I ever seen him serve. His placement was superb. At 34, he certainly needs to be doing plenty more of that.

Another interesting thing about Novak is he that has gone from being clueless at he net to reasonable. So long as the ball is above the height of the net and doesn't require intricacy, he is volleying well enough these days to win the majority of points when he moves in. Makes you wonder how Sampras would fair against these guys who stand miles behind the baseline to return.

Novak is only interested in one thing at this point: slams. All the rest is limbering up.

Certainly agree with your well expressed thoughts here Stotty.

[arturohernandez]

Excellent point you make about Novak's serve. He served brilliantly in the first and second set against Zverev, the best I ever seen him serve. His placement was superb. At 34, he certainly needs to be doing plenty more of that.

Another interesting thing about Novak is he that has gone from being clueless at he net to reasonable. So long as the ball is above the height of the net and doesn't require intricacy, he is volleying well enough these days to win the majority of points when he moves in. Makes you wonder how Sampras would fair against these guys who stand miles behind the baseline to return.

Novak is only interested in one thing at this point: slams. All the rest is limbering up.

Yes, yes, yes!!! Just took my daughter out who had a hard time against two girls that just got everything back. No net game but just slow placement from the back. I had her serve and volley against me. It just froze me. I mean no time to get to anything.

She is no pro player but it is a very similar point. Everyone thought tennis had changed and then it comes back.

BTW, what does my 16 year old daughter want for Xmas? A turntable to play records that are three times the price of a CD. BTW she could hear the same music for free on Apple music.

One of her very good friends is trying to convince his parents to buy him a $700 XMAS gift.

What does he want to spend that kind of money on?

A WALKMAN.

He is into cassettes.

What is old is new and here it comes. Will Novak bring S&V back? Will someone else do it as well?

I agree with Stotty. Forget miles, not sure that any returner could handle Sampras even at 1/2 a mile back when returning.

[jimlosaltos]

BTW, what does my 16 year old daughter want for Xmas? A turntable to play records that are three times the price of a CD. BTW she could hear the same music for free on Apple music.

One of her very good friends is trying to convince his parents to buy him a $700 XMAS gift.

What does he want to spend that kind of money on?

A WALKMAN. He is into cassettes.

.

Not tennis, but a Peet's coffee barista that looks, oh 19 yo, spotting my Big Brother and the Holding Company T-shirt and said, "I'm a big Janis Joplin fan". I was stunned. The replica t-shirt is for a show in SF from roughly 1967, before Joplin was even being mentioned in their marketing. So, she had to know Holding Company well enough to know that was her band. How did she get exposed to Janis Joplin?

Friend went to an outdoor concert by some 60s rock retreads (can't recall, might have included Stephen Stills? ). The audience was predominantly 20-something not 'Boomers like him and me. They knew all the lyrics.

So, as John Mayer said in a live album, "We've got an auditorium with 5,000 people listening to the blues. There is hope for the world after all".

Everything that's old is new again.

< g >

[stotty]

What does he want to spend that kind of money on?

A WALKMAN.

He is into cassettes.

What is old is new and here it comes. Will Novak bring S&V back? Will someone else do it as well?

Cassettes would be an odd thing to buy. LPs I could understand. They have a crackle and sound to them you don't get on a CD or a cassette. Give me Motown on an LP any day. Classical music, most of which I don't like, plays better on a CD I feel.

Not sure we can categorise Novak as anything like a great S&V player but he has gotten wise to returners who stand miles behind the baseline. He doesn't have much to slot away against players like `Medvedev when you analyse it.

[jimlosaltos]

Cassettes would be an odd thing to buy. LPs I could understand. They have a crackle and sound to them you don't get on a CD or a cassette. Give me Motown on an LP any day. Classical music, most of which I don't like, plays better on a CD I feel.

Not sure we can categorise Novak as anything like a great S&V player but he has gotten wise to returners who stand miles behind the baseline. He doesn't have much to slot away against players like `Medvedev when you analyse it.

Performance isn't the only reason. People buy old bath-tub Porsche's for the nostalgia, even tho the engine is more like a lawn mower's than a car's.

Some Gen Zs and Gen Alphas like older styles, like old-style Schwyz bikes as a counter-yuppy value statement.