ATP Tour Finals

[stroke]

Oddsmakers have Medvedev at an 85% implied probability of winning vs Ruud, Novak at 71% vs Zverev. Ruud will have to hit a very high number of forehand winners to have a chance. A very tough ask.

[stroke]

Medvedev way too good, and Ruud had no answers for what Medvedev is doing out there.

[stotty]

Great first set by Zverez. Dull to watch for the first 10 games as both players were serving so well. Got interesting towards the end of the set. Don't know why Novak is giving Zverev so many backhands since it's his best shot and can be difficult to read.

Incredible serving by Zverev. Wonder if he can keep it up.

[stotty]

Novak levels the match at 1 set all. Realising that Zverev isn't going to choke he starts going for a few shots to break serve. Novak has to be forced into going for shots and simply won't do it unless he senses he has to.

I don't think I have seen Zverev play so well up until this point. Let's hope he picks up in the third. Must be depressing having played so well yet ending up losing that second set.

[stotty]

Great serving throughout by Zverev to win that match. He'll need to repeat that form to bet Meddy and the event. I still can't warm to the bloke, though.

[jimlosaltos]

Zverev flat out, out rallied Djokovic from the baseline. Very telling IMHO that when Zverev wanted to sustain rallies he went right at Novak's backhand - while Novak would try to change directions and attack Zverev's forehand.

What kept Novak in the match was his first serve. Actual play was the exact opposite of the billing -- it was supposed to be Zverev's great serve vs the great returner and ball-machine rallies, with Zverev's vulnerability on second serves likely to decide it.

Supposedly, the winner of more points behind a second serve is the better baseline player. Today, it wasn't the ball machine.

Zverev won the long rallies overwhelmingly and won second serves, while Novak won 1st serves.

Zverev - Djokovic
1st serve points won %
78% - 87%
2nd serve points won %
63% - 41%


POINTS WON BY NUMBER OF SHOTS
Zverev - Djokovic
UNDER 5 5 TO 9 OVER 9
59-61 * 20-17 * 20-10

WINNING RALLIES OF OVER 4 Shots
Zverev 40 - 27 Djokovic

Note: Zverev listed as total points won 98-90 or by 8, but the rally length points show him winning by 11. Unless my math is wrong, something is slightly off, but not enough to change the picture.

Finals tomorrow will be interesting. Medvedev has beaten Zverev the last 5 times they've met, including in the round robin here, although he only leads H2H 6-5

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[stroke]

Good stats there Jim. Definitely tells the story of the match. Medvedev has seemed very comfortable in winning the last 5 vs Alex. A tough ask for Alex no doubt. Medvedev with a implied probability of 63.5% chance of winning the match.

[jimlosaltos]

Supposedly quick surface should help Daniil's flat shots get through the court. Otherwise, very close. Who controls court position?

[stotty]

Zverev flat out, out rallied Djokovic from the baseline. Very telling IMHO that when Zverev wanted to sustain rallies he went right at Novak's backhand - while Novak would try to change directions and attack Zverev's forehand.

What kept Novak in the match was his first serve. Actual play was the exact opposite of the billing -- it was supposed to be Zverev's great serve vs the great returner and ball-machine rallies, with Zverev's vulnerability on second serves likely to decide it.

Supposedly, the winner of more points behind a second serve is the better baseline player. Today, it wasn't the ball machine.

Zverev won the long rallies overwhelmingly and won second serves, while Novak won 1st serves.

Zverev - Djokovic
1st serve points won %
78% - 87%
2nd serve points won %
63% - 41%


POINTS WON BY NUMBER OF SHOTS
Zverev - Djokovic
UNDER 5 5 TO 9 OVER 9
59-61 * 20-17 * 20-10

WINNING RALLIES OF OVER 4 Shots
Zverev 40 - 27 Djokovic

Note: Zverev listed as total points won 98-90 or by 8, but the rally length points show him winning by 11. Unless my math is wrong, something is slightly off, but not enough to change the picture.

Finals tomorrow will be interesting. Medvedev has beaten Zverev the last 5 times they've met, including in the round robin here, although he only leads H2H 6-5

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Whatever the stats reveal it was the three missed forehands from Novak that led to the break in the third set which decided the match. One lapse, and bingo, game over.

Zverev needs to come up with the goods to beat Meddy as he's lost the last five times they've played. Court positioning? Both men are happy (prefer even) to sit well back but Zverev might want to look at how Novak got the better of Meddy in Paris...could learn something there.

[jimlosaltos]

Nobody beats Sasha Zverev 6 times in a row!

Not much else to say about the final. Dominant high-level of serving on a fast surface.

New order for new Big 3? Since July Meddy and Zverev have both outplayed Djokovic.

[stotty]

Nobody beats Sasha Zverev 6 times in a row!

Not much else to say about the final. Dominant high-level of serving on a fast surface.

New order for new Big 3? Since July Meddy and Zverev have both outplayed Djokovic.

I think you're right. They are both right up there with Novak. Not sure Zverev could outplay Novak over five sets but Meddy certainly has a decent chance of that. Zverev seemed to be hitting his forehand over the last few days better than I have seen before...and in the clutch.

In particular, I like the way both Zverev and Meddy have come round to the idea it's better to risk heavier second serves at times than allow Novak to slip into a returning rhythm. No reason Roger couldn't have done the same when you think about it.

[stroke]

Zverev very impressive with too much firepower, simply hits a bigger ball when he on, on all shots, serve, forehand, and backhand. When he is at his best, his game simply seems too good for Medvedev to me. Kind of like Novak, at his very best, is unbeatable. Novak, at his absolute of absolute best, is even better to me than Nadal on clay. That is just a very tough absolute ask, for 3 or 4 hours.