2021 Rolex Paris Masters...ATP 1000...Paris, France

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Medvedev is complete lockdown mode. Zverev no answers so far. Medvedev dare I say squeezing.

[don_budge]

This young man has really grown up in his ability to handle the big moment. He had some initial success a few years back that he found difficult to duplicate week in and week out. But he is a proven entity now and a threat in any given tournament. He doesn't have that fragility about him that often sent his racquets crashing as well as his results. In a word...maturity. At least in the tennis world and who knows...maybe in his private life as well. A fair share of surprises this week as well. This is the "New Normal" on the ATP Tour now. Week in and week out.

Lockdown...I have been watching some and I just watch Medvedev trying to understand his forehand compared to the JY analysis. The jeffreycounts comment. Excellent comment. But Medvedev is up a break in the second and there goes the Zverev racquet...smashed to smithereens. So much for the maturity. Looking a trifle fragile under the Medvedev stonewall conditions.

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https://photos.app.goo.gl/RX2Vwi97BLGAgUf27

[don_budge]

Do you have the stat on points won over so many shots? Three errors off the forehand side the entire match is rather uncanny. He totally took the legs out from Zverev over the duration of the match. Zverev had nothing left at the end. I was thinking before the match that a good tactic would be to take his legs out. Interesting player...Mr. Pencil. He looks like a pencil and sort of maps out his tactics as well. Like some kind of computer nerd.

[stroke]

Taking the legs out, just squeezing his opponent, is Novak and Medvedev, and Nadal on clay. It is a tough way for the opponent to lose a match, in fact the most painful, physically and mentally. It is beyond obvious for all to see what is going on, and yet, no answers. Basicly they are just saying you cannot hit enough winners to beat me and I am not going to give you many errors at all. Badicly, you are just not good enough.

As for the final, it is Novak vs Novak quirky lite. Medvedev is favored, with an implied probability of winning at 56.5%. Safe to say Medvedev is a problem for his opponents.

[stotty]

Hurkacz choked in the last hatful of points in that third set tiebreak. He might have seized that match if he could have found the balls. When Novak moves into lockdown you really have to be brave because he certainly won't lose it. I thought Hurkacz had a real chance in that match.

I have only seen Medvedev once this week but he looks the best player in the world at the moment. He is in the form of his life and certainly favourite tomorrow. It will be interesting psychologically because Novak really doesn't want Medvedev racking up results against him at this point in the race. I am expecting Novak to step up and try to deal with that. The best thing about Novak is when he senses he has to raise the bar...he usually does. I still make Medvedev favourite, though.

[stroke]

Yes Stotty spot on, Medvedev will certainly be in the mood to do what needs to be done, I certainly hope Novak is too. If he is, it should be quite the battle.

[don_budge]

2021 Rolex Paris Indoors Master...ATP 1000...Paris, France Daniil Medvedev vs. Novak Djokovic

A textbook knockout performance by Daniil Medvedev. Towards the end of the match he really laid down the law. The law being the First Commandment in tennis...thou shall not miss. Thou shall keep the ball in play. But he wasn't just keeping it in play...he was moving the long legged Mac Daddy Alexander Zverev well out of his comfort zone. This is the problem being 6' 6" tall and playing from the backcourt. Although the same can be said about Medvedev. It is just that he seems to be in control...the source of his "power" being his "control" over his opponent. Using LESS spin and clever placement his opponent is trapped into playing his game. One of Bill Tilden's Ten Commandments being...never give your opponent a ball he likes to play. Look how Daniil uses the angles...low angles. Stretching his opponent. Making him reach...whether it is reaching lower than he wants to or stretching wider. The opponent can never seem to get his legs and body into the shot like his coach taught him too. In short...the tactic of Medvedev is to disrupt. To confuse. To obfuscate. Destroying the opponent psychologically as well as physically.

I noticed that towards the end of the match Medvedev was really stretching out the length of the points and at the same time stretching Alexander Zverev past his limitations. The points just got longer and longer. One rally was 33 shots long and it wasn't a couple of points later it was 29 shots long. Both won by Mr. Pencil. He is designing a fool proof plan. Take the legs out and then move in for the knockout blow. This tactically explains the genius into his technical forehand. He makes it work. Indoor hard courts may be his best suit.

https://www.atptour.com/en/players/a...edev/D643/MM58

So what about Novak Djokovic? If you fail to understand the past you are doomed to repeat it. Take a look at the head to head which at this point in time and space stands at 5-4, advantage Novak Djokovic. Up until the last three encounters it was fairly even and since then it has been rather lop-sided either way. But perhaps the most telling is the last three matches. The two outdoor matches were in Grand Slam finals and they were split evenly and one sided matches. The most important going into todays match as a tell...as a predictor might just be the Nitto Finals which was played on indoor hard courts as is this final.

At the U. S. Open the buzz was how Medvedev took the Djokovic forehand out of the equation by making Novak play a majority of backhands. Medvedev outfoxed the fox. As in the Zverev match he demonstrated a patience that his opponent could not duplicate. He had a harder wall to penetrate than the wall itself. Joke 'em if they can't take a fuck. Sort of the reverse tactic. Another pearl out of the Tilden book...beat your opponents strength and you will have demoralised him beyond his limits. He did the same to Zverev last night. There was some talk about the strength of Zverev's backhand...comparing it to Djokovic's. But is the reality that Medvedev's, while not being "so easy on the eyes" is actually more effective? Well...the proof was in the pudding last night.

But the key is the forehand. Even though the Medvedev forehand defies conventional wisdom. He only made three errors with it yesterday and that folks is tantamount to an act of God. Because he is moving his opponent with every forehand stroke. At the same time keeping the ball out of the wheelhouse where they can tee it up. Instead they are playing the ball down or stretching for it wide...and low. A double indemnity. Never give your opponent a ball he likes to hit. This is the aspect of Medvedev that makes him an enigma in todays game. He has penciled you in. He knows what you can do with a certain type of ball and he just refuses to give you the one you want. There is something other than brute force in the Medvedev game. It is cerebral. Intelligent.

All that being said...Novak Djokovic has demonstrated through the years that he is the most resilient of all. He has adapted to the surface of the modern game and created a game that is virtually impenetrable. But Medvedev is now the challenger. This gives him an edge in motivation. Novak at some point has to tire of being the one with the number one target on his back. He maintained that for the seventh year with yesterdays photo finish with Hurkacz. Hurkacz might just have illustrated that Novak is coming to the end of his limitless limits. In the end...all things must end. Medvedev has the motivation of evening their head to head as well. He is throwing all of the wood onto the fire to give him the impetus it will take to bag his 2021 Rolex Paris Indoor title. This will be interesting and my eyes will be on Medvedev should I watch any or all of this match.

One more thing...both players came into this tournament without playing many matches recently. It seems to have effected Medvedev less. The match that Gael Monfils defaulted to Novak may play more into this more than any match that he has played. He may have needed just one more to get match comfortable...match tough. Daniil on the other hand seems to have his teeth into this one. He had his existential moment with Korda and regained his balance to better his form the last two rounds. Getting better and better. Novak on the other hand was a little on shaky footing. Psychological advantage...Medvedev.

[stroke]

Zverev definitely did not enjoy that one. He had no answers and he knew it.

[stroke]

Quite the 2nd set from Novak to even the match. Novak definitely in the mood. Novak had to change his tactics to take it, coming forward to the net a lot. Novak realizes obviously how good Medvedev is at what he does. Medvedev obviously gives his opponent absolutely nothing error wise and with his defense.

[stroke]

Masterful performance by Novak. Could not be more impressive. He did not rope a dope at all. He got outplayed in the 1st set and took care of business after that. Medvedev played very well also no doubt. Novak just took it. Novak 27/36 on net approaches for the match.

[jimlosaltos]

Question: I wrote after the US Open "Why do players that beat Novak or give him a tough match invariably agree to practice with him and let Novak scout them {Karatsev, Berrettini} ?" Medvedev practiced with Novak in Paris for the first time in years. Didn't work out so well.

Grabbed stats in case anyone is interested. Two images. After getting beaten in crosscourt backhand rallies in the US Open final, Novak went back to his roots, playing V-tennis. Instead of rallying, Novak went DTL early to avoid The Octopus' backhand tentacles.

Image: All of Novak's winners in the match with aces in yellow. From ATP.com

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If second serve points are as crucial as many contend, we'd have had a different winner. Meddy won those rally-based points.
But Novak dictated play when he got first serves in.


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[stotty]

As jimlosaltos highlighted, Novak was immaculate hitting down those lines. By the third set he was hitting the ball so sweetly and cleanly and moving Medvedev around so well...the match point summed things up beautifully. Novak was just so technically good from the baseline whereas Medvedev eventually started to look tatty here and there.

I had Medvedev down as favourite but knew Novak would step to the plate and make a game of it. I just didn't think he had that form in him at this point in time.

I do rate Medvedev highly. He has the hallmarks of the Big 3. He moves so well, defends so well, attacks so well, serves great, and knows how to make himself extremely hard to beat.

[jimlosaltos]

As jimlosaltos highlighted, Novak was immaculate hitting down those lines. By the third set he was hitting the ball so sweetly and cleanly and moving Medvedev around so well...the match point summed things up beautifully. Novak was just so technically good from the baseline whereas Medvedev eventually started to look tatty here and there.

I had Medvedev down as favourite but knew Novak would step to the plate and make a game of it. I just didn't think he had that form in him at this point in time.

I do rate Medvedev highly. He has the hallmarks of the Big 3. He moves so well, defends so well, attacks so well, serves great, and knows how to make himself extremely hard to beat.

Perhaps the main barrier to Medvedev making it to the very top of the rankings is his medicore (by the high standards of the ATP top 10) play on clay. Hard to throw away 1/3 of the season.

Also, there's dealing with the long season. Given how much the top players play, it is something the rest of the tour doesn't have to deal with. As stotty posted, Medvedev started "to look tatty here and there".

On to Turin.

[stroke]

Perhaps the main barrier to Medvedev making it to the very top of the rankings is his medicore (by the high standards of the ATP top 10) play on clay. Hard to throw away 1/3 of the season.

Also, there's dealing with the long season. Given how much the top players play, it is something the rest of the tour doesn't have to deal with. As stotty posted, Medvedev started "to look tatty here and there".

On to Turin.

I think you have hit the nail on the head here. Medvedev will never be a factor on clay with his lack of spin control. The big 3 were all always among the best on clay. Heck, Novak and Rafa still are. Roger was the 2nd best player in the world on clay for at least 5 years.