Has Zverev "Fixed" His Second Serve?

[jimlosaltos]

Sasha Zverev is on an 11-game winning streak, which includes an Olympic Gold medal, a Masters 1000 title, and victories over the world number one Djokovic, world number 4 Tsitsipas (who had beaten Zverev 6 of the last 7 meetings, 4 in straight sets).

He's been serving lights out. Question: 1) Has Zverev "Fixed" his second serve and if so how? 2) Is it just a matter of yips or do we still believe his technique leaves him vulnerable 3) Will he merely "regress to the mean"? I'm asking; I don't know.

Here's what his numbers were in his come from behind win over Djokovic.

filedata/fetch?id=95106&d=1630005128&type=thumb

[jimlosaltos]

Here's Zverev's second serve performance for 9 of his 11 match winning streak. (first 2 at Olympics didn't have Hawkeye and thus no stats).

Player/ second serve win % / double faults in match

Rub 45 / 4
Tsit 33/4
Ruud 55 / 1
Pella 69 /3
Harris 75 / 1
Khac 43/1
Djoko 47/1
Chard 89 / 1
Basil 80 / 0

[stotty]

I only saw a couple of his matches but in the matches I saw his first serve was doing all the work, hitting second serves at 40 love and 40-15 up then became routine. His serve did blink when trying to serve out the match against Rublev; his first serve stuttered and he threw in a double fault or two as I remember. He managed to serve out the second time round as he was a double break up.

But those yips certainly came back when serving out against Rublev. I remember thinking that at the time.

His first serve is terrific, a bomb. The rest of his game has moved up a notch also (maybe not the volleys). He's just a second serve away from being a grand slam champion in my view.

[stroke]

Jim, Great stats, I love it, nothing like facts. Those are amazing stats. That along with his top tier groundstrokes off both sides and his top tier 1st serve certainly explain his recent winning record. He is on the cusp no doubt of putting up some great numbers, but not the 3 numbers. His recent success is not lost on the oddsmakers. They have him as a strong #3 favorite to win the UD Open after Novak and Medvedev. He would be the smart money bet to me.

[jimlosaltos]

Jim, Great stats, I love it, nothing like facts. Those are amazing stats. That along with his top tier groundstrokes off both sides and his top tier 1st serve certainly explain his recent winning record. He is on the cusp no doubt of putting up some great numbers, but not the 3 numbers. His recent success is not lost on the oddsmakers. They have him as a strong #3 favorite to win the UD Open after Novak and Medvedev. He would be the smart money bet to me.

Thanks. Agreed. One thing that gets overlooked is how good a returner Zverev is. In the Cinci finals, Zverev only allowed Rublev (who has his own 2nd serve issues) to win 13% of his second serve points (2 out of 16)

The ATP's odd combo stats rank Zverev 7th overall in returning.

[stroke]

Thanks. Agreed. One thing that gets overlooked is how good a returner Zverev is. In the Cinci finals, Zverev only allowed Rublev (who has his own 2nd serve issues) to win 13% of his second serve points (2 out of 16)

The ATP's odd combo stats rank Zverev 7th overall in returning.

He is definitely trending in the right direction all areas of his game.

[don_budge]

He is definitely trending in the right direction all areas of his game.

Statistics are one thing and the battle on the ground is quite another. But, for sure, the stats for Zverev should be improving with time. Otherwise what would be the point? The difference in Alexander Zverev of late is not going to show up in the stats and that is his mental and competitive attributes. He is gaining in experience and losing that "deer in the headlights" look. He came on quite quickly and it took some time for him to feel comfortable with his status. He took his lumps but hung in there and worked his way up the food chain again.

It has helped that attrition has taken its toll on the field. The field is considerably weaker than it was a few years ago. Many of the better players are no longer playing or are in decline. Surely every aspect of his game has improved. Surely his second serve has improved. But it is the cumulative effect of his game that has enabled him. His forehand is not longer the reputed weakness of his game. But I wonder what his impact will be in the long run. He is a bit tall to be running around the baseline grinding it out as a baseliner. So many of these big guys end up with injuries trying to play a game that doesn't suit them ergonomically speaking.

Speaking of the serve...if he really wanted to improve it he would be serving and volleying. But of course that is not an option these days. Afterall, the concept of the game is no longer what it once was. The biggest mitigating factor in Alexander Zverev has been experience. He has learned from his failures and his successes. He is maturing. But the jury is still out. It's a long run. It's a marathon...not a sprint. As he is finding out.

[stroke]

I agree that Alex does not have the build to be running down shots all day, even though he is about the same size as Medvedev, who does exactly that very comfortably. Alex just has way more pop on all shots in his game than Medvedev though. We have all said before, somewhat like Novak, with more power and less defensive skills. The beatdown he put on Rublev in Cincy was about as impressive as it gets. Rublev really competes well and he had no chance. There were no small margains in play there separating the winner from the lower. Zverev just does not look good volleying. To me, he will never have good hands out there.

[arturohernandez]

I agree that Alex does not have the build to be running down shots all day, even though he is about the same size as Medvedev, who does exactly that very comfortably. Alex just has way more pop on all shots in his game than Medvedev though. We have all said before, somewhat like Novak, with more power and less defensive skills. The beatdown he put on Rublev in Cincy was about as impressive as it gets. Rublev really competes well and he had no chance. There were no small margains in play there separating the winner from the lower. Zverev just does not look good volleying. To me, he will never have good hands out there.

So is he the next most one dimensional major winner?

[stroke]

So is he the next most one dimensional major winner?

I suppose. But to me that is a good problem to have, a major winner. He hits the most oppressive groundstrokes totality wise, forehand and backhand, on the tour. His 1st serve is top notch. As Stotty said, and I agree, it is all there except possibly 2nd serve hiccups. If that is off the table, I am seeing a guy that is going to win several majors.

[jimlosaltos]

So is he the next most one dimensional major winner?

Not at all. Zverev is higher ranked as a returner than a server. How many big servers are there whose return is a glaring weakness? I'd list Tsitsipas, Shapovalov, Kyrgios not just the giants, Isner, Opelka, Raonic. Zverev ranks 9th on return, 21st on serve. (Now, we can argue about the ATP's composite stats weighting, but it's something).

https://www.atptour.com/en/stats/leaderboard?boardType=return&timeFrame=52Week&surface=all&versusRank=all&formerNo1=false

Zverev's liabilities are his second serve, consistency on his forehand, and arguably his court positioning. Hard to understand why a 6 ft 6 / 7 in guy wants to run around so far behind the baseline, but then he has something of Andy Murray in him.

But Zverev has many weapons.

[arturohernandez]

Not at all. Zverev is higher ranked as a returner than a server. How many big servers are there whose return is a glaring weakness? I'd list Tsitsipas, Shapovalov, Kyrgios not just the giants, Isner, Opelka, Raonic. Zverev ranks 9th on return, 21st on serve. (Now, we can argue about the ATP's composite stats weighting, but it's something).

https://www.atptour.com/en/stats/leaderboard?boardType=return&timeFrame=52Week&surface=all&versusRank=all&formerNo1=false

Zverev's liabilities are his second serve, consistency on his forehand, and arguably his court positioning. Hard to understand why a 6 ft 6 / 7 in guy wants to run around so far behind the baseline, but then he has something of Andy Murray in him.

But Zverev has many weapons.

Yes, the return of serve is an interesting stat to consider. If I am not wrong, it is the one thing Sampras worked on a lot. He basically was trying to get one break every set. Probably similar to Federer's mind set.

Zverev looks great at this point. The only question is whether he will win multiple majors. Remember there was another tall guy we thought would win multiple majors after he beat Federer in the final of the 2009 US Open.

Then everything changed. I still think that in tennis being past 6'4" becomes an issue because of all the weight that has to move around. So far we only have Del Potro and Cilic as the exceptions on the tall side. On the short side, we have no exceptions. The shortest male has been Wawrinka at 6' tall.

Statistics are not everything and just because the vast majority of major winners are just over 6' doesn't mean it will stay that way.

But it's hard to ignore statistics and the bet is on Tsitsipas or someone "shorter" than him to emerge from the pack as the next multiple major winner.

Should be interesting...

[stroke]

Yes, the return of serve is an interesting stat to consider. If I am not wrong, it is the one thing Sampras worked on a lot. He basically was trying to get one break every set. Probably similar to Federer's mind set.

Zverev looks great at this point. The only question is whether he will win multiple majors. Remember there was another tall guy we thought would win multiple majors after he beat Federer in the final of the 2009 US Open.

Then everything changed. I still think that in tennis being past 6'4" becomes an issue because of all the weight that has to move around. So far we only have Del Potro and Cilic as the exceptions on the tall side. On the short side, we have no exceptions. The shortest male has been Wawrinka at 6' tall.

Statistics are not everything and just because the vast majority of major winners are just over 6' doesn't mean it will stay that way.

But it's hard to ignore statistics and the bet is on Tsitsipas or someone "shorter" than him to emerge from the pack as the next multiple major winner.

Should be interesting...

Zverev's height is not an issue at all to me. He is clearly a very short 6'6" to me. Standing next to Querry, who is probably a legitimate 6'6", Zverev is not as tall. He is probably about 6'5" and that is a very good height to play tennis at the highest level.

[stotty]

I still think that in tennis being past 6'4" becomes an issue because of all the weight that has to move around. So far we only have Del Potro and Cilic as the exceptions on the tall side. On the short side, we have no exceptions. The shortest male has been Wawrinka at 6' tall.

Very dangerous to have fixed ideas in coaching. Statistically, there are probably far fewer over 6'4'' to those under 6'4'' so you would expect less slam winners over 6'4''. Zverez moves well and is not in the least bit handicapped by his height. The reason Zverev is not a slam winner already is due to his unstable second serve and his inability to close out. I am expecting him to improve in both departments, but improvement in the former will definitely have a positive effect on the latter.

To me, in today's game, being 6'6'' is an asset. Extreme height is a relatively new phenomenon so let's see what happens over the next decade.

[jimlosaltos]

I remember Jack Kramer circa 1980 saying that tennis would be taken over by athletes like Michael Jordan ( ~6 ft 6 in).

Didn't happen then. Nor in the 90s. Nor in the Aughts.

Still waiting ....

Meanwhile, the NBA is getting shorter.