2021 Australian Open...ATP 2000...Melbourne, Australia

[stroke]

Medvedev wins 1st set 6-4 with one break. That backhand BHP stat would not look good for Stef 1st set. He is going to hit his backhand with way less errors to to really have a chance in this match.

[stotty]

Tsitsipas goes a break down in the second. Not good. Medvedev is playing well and a two set lead might be a step too far to overcome for Tsitsipas.

[stotty]

Tsitsipas getting crushed here and has no answers at the moment.

[stroke]

Oddsmakers now have Medvedev at just over 97% chance if winning this match. That pretty much says it all. Medvedev on cruise control, no traffic.

[stotty]

A glimmer...but much less of a glimmer than when he played Rafa. It's a really long shot from here.

3-2 Medvedev in the third.

[stotty]

4-3 to the Greek. Just hold serve and build, baby!

[stotty]

Medvedev's forehand is everything that it shouldn't be in modern tennis. Really sticks two fingers up at technique...can't get over how ugly the shot is.

Medvedev so good at redirecting the ball and one of the reasons he is so difficult to play.

[stroke]

The announcers made the Mercir comparison, albeit with a much bigger serve. I think Mercir had a much prettier game, but this is not a beauty contest. Medvedev has unbelievable control on such an ugly, no spin control forehand. This one may leave a mark on Stef. Medvedev knuckle balls off both sides stay so low off the court and really shoot through the court.

Novak needs to come out from the go. It could be a great match. 2 boa constrictors trying to squeeze the other one. The odds will be pretty close on this one I expect, Novak the slight favorite.

[stotty]

The announcers made the Mercir comparison, albeit with a much bigger serve. I think Mercir had a much prettier game, but this is not a beauty contest. Medvedev has unbelievable control on such an ugly, no spin control forehand. This one may leave a mark on Stef. Medvedev knuckle balls off both sides stay so low off the court and really shoot through the court.

Novak needs to come out from the go. It could be a great match. 2 boa constrictors trying to squeeze the other one. The odds will be pretty close on this one I expect, Novak the slight favorite.

Good analysis. For me, Medvedev has the better form. Novak does tend to raise his game, however, when he knows what's coming and that he will really have to play to win...just ask Roger.

[glacierguy]

FWIW I watched two games on replay of Djokovic and Karatsev before nearly nodding off, and it's 2pm in the afternoon! Boy, that was dull tennis. Rooting for Medvedev in final.

[don_budge]

FWIW I watched two games on replay of Djokovic and Karatsev before nearly nodding off, and it's 2pm in the afternoon! Boy, that was dull tennis. Rooting for Medvedev in final.

Novak Djokovic can have that effect on you. He nearly knocked me out at the French Open a few years back. Probably the most boring number one player in the world ever. BOAT?

[don_budge]

2021 Australian Open...Melbourne, Australia...Daniil Medvedev vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas semifinal match

An extremely good match for Daniil Medvedev aka "Mr. Pencil". He just routined the slayer of Rafael Nadal in the round before. The court that they played on has gotten the reputation for being one of the quickest and fastest on the tour. Advantage Medvedev.

It's relatively simple really...the flatter groundstrokes get through the court quicker and the player trying to hitting looping topspin off that type of ball is in for a long, long day. Or in Stefanos case...a very short day. The match opened with Medvedev seizing control immediately and I sensed a very one sided contest. So I went and cleaned the stable when he was mopping up the first set. By the time a came back it was 3-3 in the third. That was quick...it didn't take me that long to make the beds for the two horses. Medvedev was racing through the handsome Greek like a hot knife through soft butter.

The Medvedev game plan was an angled ball hit low and shorter to the Tsitsipas backhand. The answer to which is probably going to be some slicing backhands if you are "The Living Proof" to negate the awkward proposition of returning high over the net cross court. The thing is it is two fold. The quicker court gives the Medvedev ball the opportunity to do its thing on his opponent which is shoot up on the opponent. But the other thing is this...the topspin is not going to grab the court like these guys are used to play on so as a consequence Medvedev is getting a ball right in his wheelhouse. He showed he was up to those kinds of returns all day long. John McEnroe noticed too, the lack of slice in the Tsitsipas repertoire. He also noticed that at one point Tsitsipas had won 12 of 13 points at the net. This was towards the later middle of the third set so it wan't like Stefanos was making a policy of going hard forwards. He was getting wiped off the court as it was. Maybe he should have had a plan B.

That almost looked like a bit of a manufactured crisis for Daniil Medvedev in the third...as he was up a break but relinquished it back to Tsitsipas. Medvedev appeared to be stumbling a bit with unforced errors creeping into his game where there were none the first two sets. But he just sort of took as it comes and rather calmly broke back when he needed to and just as calmly served out the set. The two players exchange a rather civil handshake at the net and Stefanos had nothing but congratulatory praise for his opponent. Stefanos looked a tad slow and Medvedev acknowledged that he noticed this as well and just did exactly what had to be done. He started moving him around. The short ball to the big winding backhand was the perfect place to start opening up the court. When you are tired and the legs are not quite under you the first thing to go is the serve and Stefanos didn't have the mojo on his serve he needs against the Russian. A player of Tsitsipas type has to dominate the serve ala Roger Federer. Federer on a court like this is winning most of his service games in just over a minute.

There is no reason that Daniil Medvedev should not go into the final without being optimistic. He likes his chances. I think that the court surface favours him and I don't believe I have seen him serve so well. Novak's condition might be a question mark in some minds but I wouldn't put any amount of credence in that. It's all gamesmanship. I think Medvedev might have used a bit of the "limp leg" routine in the third set in the manufactured crisis. He got into a bit of a riff over something and got the crowd a bit incited. He played it a bit low key for a few games sort of luring Tsitsipas into a trap. Then when it was time to get the horse into the barn it was no muss...no fuss. Calmly taking control and finishing in style over the finish line.

This guy is a real force to be dealt with. I was wondering if Nadal had managed to limp through against Tsitsipas what might have happened. I believe that Medvedev would have mopped the court with the Spaniard. That might have been fun to watch. We might be witnessing a major changing of the guard in this tournament. If Daniil pulls this one off he is in another dimension. Another level of the game as Arthur Ashe would say. I'm certainly hoping for it to happen. It's Mr. Pencil time.

[stroke]

I too hope Medvedev can get it done vs Novak. Hard to believe but I would think at this point Medvedev has a better chance of playing to win every point than Novak. Novak to me has definitely developed a habit of being moody out there. If Novak is in lockdown mode for this entire match, it could be something.

[stotty]

I rate Mr Pencil's chances quite high on Sunday. I actually make him the slender favourite. He's on form, and as stroke rightly pointed out, Novak gets a little petulant these days. He's so used to one-way traffic that when someone outplays him for a while he chucks his rackets out of the pram. At the same time, Novak has made it to the final, albeit in a bumpy fashion, but nevertheless he's given himself a shot at 9 Aussie titles. He knows the threat he's facing and I am expecting him to step up to that. We all know he's going to do that, for sure.

I am not sure Medvedev is any more interesting than Novak. He has no volley, not much of a smash, and his slice backhand is a pretty weedy effort too. What he can do is surprise us all with some impromptu strikes out of the blue. I like that. His ball control is up there with Connors.

Being one-handed on the backhand, I think, gives a player the best shot at having an all court game. It gives a player the best chance of having a decent slice backhand and a decent backhand volley. But - as is evident with Tsitsipas - it is no guarantee. Many one-handed players don't have great sliced backhands or decent net games either.

That said Mecir and Connors were two-handed players with an excellent all court games. They were very comfy at the net and knew, most importantly, how to approach the net. So being two-handed doesn't have to handicap a player from developing an all court game. It really doesn't.

I wonder what Novak's tactics will be in the final because he certainly can't hit Medvedev off. I wonder whether he will bail out of rallies with drop shots or opt for occasional flurries to the net. Both tactics will fail. I imagine he will try to serve well and resort to locking down in the rallies and hitting a very good length. What else? He may opt to draw Medvedev to the net but that's risky and not a tactic he can exploit too often. I think Medvedev is wise to both the bailout drop shot and being enticed to the net. The last time they played he dealt with both tactics handsomely. So there seems nowhere else to go other than lockdown for Novak.

I think Novak has gone ever so slightly past his best both mentally and a tiny bit physically. He is a supremely confident man however. He believes he's the best player in the world and even when 20,000 people were screaming against him when he last played Roger at Wimbledon, he still won. You have to respect that. And it's what Medvedev will be up against on Sunday.

[stroke]

I rate Mr Pencil's chances quite high on Sunday. I actually make him the slender favourite. He's on form, and as stroke rightly pointed out, Novak gets a little petulant these days. He's so used to one-way traffic that when someone outplays him for a while he chucks his rackets out of the pram. At the same time, Novak has made it to the final, albeit in a bumpy fashion, but nevertheless he's given himself a shot at 9 Aussie titles. He knows the threat he's facing and I am expecting him to step up to that. We all know he's going to do that, for sure.

I am not sure Medvedev is any more interesting than Novak. He has no volley, not much of a smash, and his slice backhand is a pretty weedy effort too. What he can do is surprise us all with some impromptu strikes out of the blue. I like that. His ball control is up there with Connors.

Being one-handed on the backhand, I think, gives a player the best shot at having an all court game. It gives a player the best chance of having a decent slice backhand and a decent backhand volley. But - as is evident with Tsitsipas - it is no guarantee. Many one-handed players don't have great sliced backhands or decent net games either.

That said Mecir and Connors were two-handed players with an excellent all court games. They were very comfy at the net and knew, most importantly, how to approach the net. So being two-handed doesn't have to handicap a player from developing an all court game. It really doesn't.

I wonder what Novak's tactics will be in the final because he certainly can't hit Medvedev off. I wonder whether he will bail out of rallies with drop shots or opt for occasional flurries to the net. Both tactics will fail. I imagine he will try to serve well and resort to locking down in the rallies and hitting a very good length. What else? He may opt to draw Medvedev to the net but that's risky and not a tactic he can exploit too often. I think Medvedev is wise to both the bailout drop shot and being enticed to the net. The last time they played he dealt with both tactics handsomely. So there seems nowhere else to go other than lockdown for Novak.

I think Novak has gone ever so slightly past his best both mentally and a tiny bit physically. He is a supremely confident man however. He believes he's the best player in the world and even when 20,000 people were screaming against him when he last played Roger at Wimbledon, he still won. You have to respect that. And it's what Medvedev will be up against on Sunday.

All so true. That Wimbledon triumph vs Fed with Fed in full flight and almost the whole stadium behind Fed., the single most impressive tennis win I have ever seen. Oddsmakers have Novak as a paper-thin favorite, 52.4% chance of winning. Obviously, a virtual toss up. Very unusual odds.