Italian Open

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And now back to business as usual, Nadal at -134 to win the tournament, Novak at +250, followed by Stefanos at +1400, Stan +2500.

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Times are changing. An 18 year old Italian qualifier, Lorenzo Musetti, ranked #284, just beat Stan in 2 sets, 1st round. The 1st set was 6-0. More impressive perhaps, he won the 2nd set in a tiebreaker as Stan was fighting back.

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Tsitsipas goes down in 3 in his 1st match of the tournament, 2nd round vs Sinner. Tsitsipas lost the first set 6-0, fought back and won 2nd set in a tiebreaker, to his credit, but lost 6-2 in the 3rd. Sinner played very well, looking very comfortable on clay. Stefanos and Stan of course were the distant 3 and 4 favorites after Nadal and Novak. Novak looked clinical in his 1st match/2nd round win. Nadal is coming up soon with his 1st match vs PCB. Certainly no easy ask.

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Grigor looked about as good as I have ever seen him in his win today. Probably not beat Rafa or Novak good. but really good.

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Nadal is absolutely putting a beatdown on PCB, who is probably one of the top 5 clay courters in the world. His positional model type 3 forehand is beyond brutal. Soderling, Fabio, and Novak are the only players I have seen that have ever bested Nadal on clay. Fabio would be a massive reach to repeat. We will see about Novak.

[stotty]

Nadal is absolutely putting a beatdown on PCB, who is probably one of the top 5 clay courters in the world. His positional model type 3 forehand is beyond brutal. Soderling, Fabio, and Novak are the only players I have seen that have ever bested Nadal on clay. Fabio would be a massive reach to repeat. We will see about Novak.

Novak is the only player that can do it. Last year at the FO Novak had him in his sights until a 50 mph wind blew up. I really do believe if Novak hits his best form he can beat Rafa on clay, be it in Rome or Paris. We'll see.

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Novak is the only player that can do it. Last year at the FO Novak had him in his sights until a 50 mph wind blew up. I really do believe if Novak hits his best form he can beat Rafa on clay, be it in Rome or Paris. We'll see.

It could be quite the final if those 2 lock up again. Both seem completely full flight. Nadal particularly.

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Lorenzo Musetti takes out Kei in 2 looking very good in doing so. Stan, now Kei, 1st 2 rounds, just a typical Masters 1000. He has a Thiem/Tsitsipas type style,only 18. The way he is playing, it would be very interesting to see him vs Novak or Rafa. He is a righty with a beautiful 1 handed backhand, which historically(ha) has not been a good match up vs Nadal.

[stotty]

Musetti could meet Novak if they both get through their matches. Anyone coming up now will be interesting as the old guard must change in the next two years...no one fights time. At least anyone Musetti's age won't have time develop the inferiority complex the others have versus Novak, Rafa, and Roger.

I don't think anyone one-hander can match Rafa outside of Roger...and even he is no match whatsoever on clay.

[stroke]

Musetti could meet Novak if they both get through their matches. Anyone coming up now will be interesting as the old guard must change in the next two years...no one fights time. At least anyone Musetti's age won't have time develop the inferiority complex the others have versus Novak, Rafa, and Roger.

I don't think anyone one-hander can match Rafa outside of Roger...and even he is no match whatsoever on clay.

Copy that

[hockeyscout]

Lorenzo Musetti takes out Kei in 2 looking very good in doing so. Stan, now Kei, 1st 2 rounds, just a typical Masters 1000. He has a Thiem/Tsitsipas type style,only 18. The way he is playing, it would be very interesting to see him vs Novak or Rafa. He is a righty with a beautiful 1 handed backhand, which historically(ha) has not been a good match up vs Nadal.

Novak and Rafa will come to the net and suffocate the kid - tennis is an adventure for Lorenzo Musetti - strokes are not classic and I hate the stances/footwork/balance - especially that one handed backhand - you know when you look "athletic" it means you are out of position - he needs to tone it down - get to position better and make it look simple. How many of these young players are really watching the old school guys? Watch the old school guys that played with wood rackets - you put them in tennis today and they'd be dominant players very quickly because they know how to get to position with the correct stance. Like look at Yannick Noah - rock solid positioning, put him in 2020 with access to accelerate isokonetic machines, atp belt squat machine, my specialized glut/ham swing, Pilates reformers, intrinsic muscle training, nutrition, MMA fight training, skipping, recovery and all the simple things us coaches do now to set up a functional body that can produce a consistent stroke. You sure learn in MMA the importance of footwork/stance, because one wrong move results in dire consequences. It's generally why boxers/MMA kids can transition well to tennis - they understand you live and die by the footwork sword. I took a national champion level fighter from Ukraine on the tennis court once, and after about an hour of instruction he was a good player - I wish I took video of it. His footwork was very good obviously because that is all we focus on in prepping for fights - getting to position to hit/evade/counter - everything is about wide feet, hip rotation, balance, rhythm - so, it carries well over into tennis. This kid Lorenzo Musetti - human highlight reel at 18, 19 and 20 - and these guys generally don't have long term success in pro's. He'll have to steady it out. One of my coach buddies has a top end kid 14 years and he is forever hitting off the wrong foot, and it's not getting corrected. Personally I would quit because its a zero sum game, cancel practice until the kid got it right and watch 100's of hours of old pro's doing it right - but, I think this kid would be happy to be sent home (1) and (2) this coach can't financially afford to walk away, and he is worried about losing his job and (3) parents don't want to pay extra to have a coach sit with the kid for 2/3 hours and watch an actually match with a kid/teach. It is not urgent for the kid to fix it because he wins, wins and wins a lot and is arrogant as a result of his "status/rankings" - kids a 14 year old in a 17 year olds body and it will even out soon.

I wonder when they will get around to fixing this issue with Lorenzo Musetti - he is 18, and he not grasping basic concepts. It's too bad he is having some success against some beat up pro's who don't really want to be on the tour right now because they have kids/families and tennis is #2 to them now understandably.

This Kei kid is real interesting - no propensity whatsoever to be a great athlete whatsoever, but you can see his team did a great job with squeezing every ounce of juice out of him! What a great worker - and he maximizes the limited tools he has in his box. So many guys at the pro level with more ability - but, this guy has put in more of the "right athletic work" than his peers. Overachiever - rare, rare, rare player Kei, and I respect that work ethic. He's on his last legs now and looks pretty beat up - but, I like his smarts. Doesn't have that pro tennis body - but, young kids can learn watching him - I bet 100% he will be a terrific coach when he is done his career.

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Technically to me, Musetti may have the most promising clay court game I have seen for his age(among this new generation). His backhand looks as solid as Thiem's, and his forehand looks at least closer to a model type 3 than a classic type 3, and it is a huge weapon. His movement on clay is top shelf, and his serve is very good. Like Thiem, he has a very reliable kick 2nd serve.

[hockeyscout]

Technically to me, Musetti may have the most promising clay court game I have seen for his age(among this new generation). His backhand looks as solid as Thiem's, and his forehand looks at least closer to a model type 3 than a classic type 3, and it is a huge weapon. His movement on clay is top shelf, and his serve is very good. Like Thiem, he has a very reliable kick 2nd serve.

A lucky 1/2 for the kid - Stan is old enough to be his daddy, he's had a long time off and he's slowed down a ton in the corona-lockdown - guys old - 35 or 36, and his body is 50 years old. Beaten up big time - but still pounding away. The knee injury - miracle he is still playing - guys got a higher level of commitment than his skeptics say because that is tough to come back from and play at form when you are never comfortable and always in pain. His knee is a mess - would not want to be him taking the needle before each match, icing and therapy/physio all day. The work he has to do to get ready to play must be insane at this stage of the game. The second guy he played Kei was out of match shape, coming off corona, elbow surgery, out of rhythm, rehabbing an injury and not even close to his best. Musetti slowed down a lot in match #2 - he's got happy feet and I think in #3 he comes down to earth and we see the true level of his ability. Did you notice how every time Kei came to the net this kid has no answer? Obviously Kei was not in mental game shape to think through every point - and dictate. Lucky draw - played 2 guys that are hoping to peak for later down the line - if ever. Lots of miles on those two guys. He does hit a wonderful ball when he has time/space - but let's see what he does against real big league talent that is primed to go. In baseball they farm injured old men out to the farm team to rehab - and, this kid basically played two guys at 50% percent that are rehabbing and getting timing down. Everyone is a star in the minors - but major league ball is a whole different story. Can't say I am impressed with his instincts, his happy feet really concern me and his movement was down a level in match 2. I do like his flexibility and range of motion on the serve - and, it's organic and naturally occurring which is interesting. But he ain't no Yannick Noah and the two young Canadian/Russian kids are all better players.

[hockeyscout]

Anyone coming up now will be interesting as the old guard must change in the next two years...no one fights time

I don't know about that - look at Mike Tyson - 52, and you will see in his fight he will be 29. He's doing some insane stuff - and, I am pretty sure the big three do the same protocols as none of this stuff is hush hush. I am pretty sure every top end athlete is using the same data points I use - cause/effect, force plates, 3D motion analysis and the same equipment, traction, cryotherapy, balance tools, training load monitors, central nervous fatigue monitoring systems, rate of force production machines ETC ETC - and, as a result you can figure out injuries before they happen and build durable athletes. I have my own fitness studio - and, these guys have what I have. We all do the same things now - but, most important they have game sense, IQ and they are aging better than any other athletes in the history of the sport ... genetics are a factor as well with the big 3. I'd say Novak/Nadal has at least 5/6 years, and Roger 3 years - Novak was one of the first people in the world to have a CVAC machine (which I hate), Nadal was using power plates (which I love) - these guys are way ahead of the game, and diets are scientific down to "don't ever eat cabbage if you are an A type blood. ... and they invest well into $500,000 range a year for health ... it's big business.

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To me the toughest ask in all sports, taking out Nadal on clay, particularly at the FO or a Masters 1000.