2019 Roland Garros...ATP 2000...Paris, France

[stroke]

Nadal is very big favorite vs Roger at 1/8. Roger is 32/5. Roger probably has never been this big of underdog. If he can pull this off, I would say it is the most impressive win he has ever had.

[stotty]

Nadal is very big favorite vs Roger at 1/8. Roger is 32/5. Roger probably has never been this big of underdog. If he can pull this off, I would say it is the most impressive win he has ever had.

It would...be Roger's most impressive win.

He has no virtually no record against Nadal on clay and none whatsoever at Roland Garros. I never thought I would be saying this about Roger but it's true: he has absolutely nothing to lose.

Artistry is the only to do it.

I have missed most of the tournament so far as I am on holiday in Edinburgh, Scotland. I will likely missed tomorrow's tennis also as I'm travel back then. Nice place Scotland but you wouldn't want to live here. It's bloody cold.

[stroke]

One time, 2007 Hamburg, Fed defeated Nadal. I can still remember his quote, he had "cracked the code". That was optimistic, but Fed always had the belief.

[don_budge]

One time, 2007 Hamburg, Fed defeated Nadal. I can still remember his quote, he had "cracked the code". That was optimistic, but Fed always had the belief.

Roger couldn't be in a better position to face Nadal under these circumstances. He has had enough match play to put it all on the line for a all or nothing performance. Federer is the master at disarming players of their strength and turning it back on their weakness. He is well rested. This is a chance for a peak performance. There is no tomorrow. There are no finals. It is all before him in this one match. He has beaten this nemesis five straight times under different circumstances. But this is on Nadal's home court...Roland Garros. That matters not a twit. You have to have that mentality that you are going into your opponents own backyard and you are going to take the fight to him.

It appeared...and Wawrinka said as much...the conditions were fast and "slippery". I think that this is going to favour our boy. He has to take all of the variables and make them fit into his equation. As in "cracking the code" he is solving for multiple variables here. Linear algebra. He is searching for the belief that he can do this. That he can take Nadal out of his own tournament. If he finds this sort of belief then he can put the pressure on Nadal to prove himself. There might be a bit of pressure on Nadal here in that Federer has gotten into his head with the last five wins. The expectations are on Nadal...as our own bman has expressed...there is no way that Nadal can lose. Or can he? Stefanos Tsitsipas said about Nadal that "he makes you play bad...and that is a talent". So Roger has cracked the code in that Nadal cannot make him play bad. Nadal can beat him if he can get Federer to buy into playing his game. But I think that Roger has a game plan. He has some new wrinkles to show his old adversary. He can get up on that baseline and control that line of demarcation then he takes the fight to him and he is the aggressor. He wants to be the aggressor. No amount of defence is going to win this match.

I'll voice a minority opinion here. Even though Nadal is a touch slower than in his prime, he's made other improvements such that he's (regrettably) playing his best clay court tennis ever. He is more aggressive than in the old days (serve and first ball forehand combination is untouchable) with better touch, net game, backhand, and ability to change direction. His understanding and use of the geometry of the court is second to none. If he is a bit slower, it is less exposed because he is less likely to play defensively now.

The culprit in all this is Carlos Moya. Nadal appeared to be clearly declining in 15-16, but he's experienced a renaissance since picking up Moya in 17 and is pretty much as dominating as ever.

This is going to be one interesting post in retrospect.

But we are going to have to wait now. Patience. Roger is biding his time and Nadal is chomping at the bit.

[bman]

Don, good post, but as a fellow fed fan I urge you to go in with low expectations. I watched Nadal feed a bagel and a breadstick to Djokovic in Rome, and that's very scary, I don't care how tired Djokovic is.

It is supposed to be windy and damp on Friday, which is good in one way as it keeps the ball lower, but bad in that Federer will have an even harder time hitting through the court and hitting aces.

Federer HAS to serve well, and I feel he will need to get to a few tiebreaks and be clutch there in order to pull of the miracle. After yesterday's historically bad break point conversion rate, I'm not feeling that Fed will break serve very often.

Mostly I just hope he plays well, because this is probably his last chance to beat Nadal at the French. If he plays well, and loses, hats off. But I will be disappointed if he plays like he did at the French in 2008 and Rome 2013.

[stotty]

Don, good post, but as a fellow fed fan I urge you to go in with low expectations. I watched Nadal feed a bagel and a breadstick to Djokovic in Rome, and that's very scary, I don't care how tired Djokovic is.

It is supposed to be windy and damp on Friday, which is good in one way as it keeps the ball lower, but bad in that Federer will have an even harder time hitting through the court and hitting aces.

Federer HAS to serve well, and I feel he will need to get to a few tiebreaks and be clutch there in order to pull of the miracle. After yesterday's historically bad break point conversion rate, I'm not feeling that Fed will break serve very often.

Mostly I just hope he plays well, because this is probably his last chance to beat Nadal at the French. If he plays well, and loses, hats off. But I will be disappointed if he plays like he did at the French in 2008 and Rome 2013.

Great post...grounded. It will be interesting to see Roger's tactics. You would assume he might serve volley a fair bit given how far Rafa stands back to return. The drop shot could feature heavily, and balls that draw Rafa to the net. Roger has nothing to lose so he may as well throw in the kitchen sink and some. I am not sure who benefits more from damp conditions. Rafa likes a fast, dry court -- he says -- because his forehand gets more bite in the court. But I think it's fair to say all clay court conditions can suit Rafa. He has won the even 11 times, after all.

And today's rain delay is a gift to Nadal and Roger's half of the draw. Novak is going have to work hard and be efficient from here if he has to have any hope of taking the title. It was unlucky to get rained off at this stage. The rescheduling is odd too as you think they would start early the next day rather than at 2:30pm.

[bman]

The more I think about it, the more disappointing the forecast is. The winds are 20-25 mph all afternoon. The tennis will be a bit of a joke. Remember Federer-Agassi US Open 2004?

[stotty]

Novak snatches the first set but really had to play to do it. Roger and Rafa will be loving this.

[stroke]

The Prince of Clay, Muster 2.0, Thiem, is up 2 sets to 0 behind massive forehands, backhands, and kick serves. And very few errors. A timeless clay court winning strategy.

[stroke]

Alex doubles 3 times in a row to lose the 2nd set 6-2. Not looking good at all.

[stroke]

Well those were not riveting matches. Tomorrow should be though weather permitting.

[don_budge]

Alex doubles 3 times in a row to lose the 2nd set 6-2. Not looking good at all.

He doubled on set point in the first set. All along I have been a huge critic of his service motion. It's convoluted...it makes very little sense. Inefficient looking...fails in the clutch. Both matches were totally boring...I started out with both on my screen and turned both off before the first set was completed.

Tomorrow will be different. The weather is questionable. We have projected Noah's Ark type rain here in Brännemo, Sweden tomorrow.

[stroke]

He doubled on set point in the first set. All along I have been a huge critic of his service motion. It's convoluted...it makes very little sense. Inefficient looking...fails in the clutch. Both matches were totally boring...I started out with both on my screen and turned both off before the first set was completed.

Tomorrow will be different. The weather is questionable. We have projected Noah's Ark type rain here in Brännemo, Sweden tomorrow.

His serve does not evoke confidence. But he is never going to be as good as Novak, whose game he seems to most closely resemble. Now Thiem, that serve evokes just fine.

[gzhpcu]

Easy win for Thiem. Now for Djokovic....

[stotty]

Actually the first set between Zverev and Novak was decent. Zverev played well off the ground and out-served Novak. Novak played a great set tactically by allowing Zverev plenty of backhands early on in the match but then switched to peppering his forehand more as the set wore on and particularly on the bigger points. Zverev's forehand broke down by the end of the first set and he was all spent. I stopped watching at 2-0 in the second because I knew it was all over.

It has always been a mystery to me how he managed to beat Novak in the world tour finals. He's not in the same hemisphere as Novak as a player, not really.

I didn't see Thiem but heard he was in fine form.

It's anyone's guess what might happen in the semi-finals. The forecast is wet with very high winds. It will ruin the tennis. I hope it's rained off and they play Saturday instead.