2018 Western and Southern Open...ATP 500...Cincinnati, Ohio USA

[stotty]

Remember that match in London at the Tour Championships. Very hard to believe that one. Roger pinned his ears back the first set then sort of disappeared in this air after that. It was one of the more hard to believe losses that I had witnessed out of Federer.

Yes I do. A match neither of us will forget. The most bizarre loss of Roger's career....unfathomable.

Djokovic stutters through against Cilic. He's been stuttering all week yet somehow he's made it to the final.

Now it's Roger's turn. No bizarre slip ups, please. There is only one final I want to see.

[gzhpcu]

An artist against a robot.

[stotty]

The quick courts will weigh heavily in Roger's favour. He is also in better form than Novak right now. I say the odds are in Roger's court.

[stroke]

Oddmakers have the match almost dead even pick 'em. Very unusual to see that. Fed certainly seems to be in better form as Stotty said. The crowd I am certain will be with Roger. Novak was not in a good mood/place yesterday vs Cilic. The crowd support will do nothing to put him in a better mood.

[don_budge]

I have a lot of respect for the robots. It is real world, like most of us. All of us would like to be geniuses, to be artists, but those like Fed, Michael Jordon, Bobby Fischer(going way back) are really not realistic. Djokovic I am fairly certain would like to be able to play tennis like Fed, but he has certainly maxed his potential, a worthy accomplishment.

Djokovic stutters through against Cilic. He's been stuttering all week yet somehow he's made it to the final.

An artist against a robot.

The quick courts will weigh heavily in Roger's favour. He is also in better form than Novak right now. I say the odds are in Roger's court.

Oddmakers have the match almost dead even pick 'em. Very unusual to see that. Fed certainly seems to be in better form as Stotty said. The crowd I am certain will be with Roger. Novak was not in a good mood/place yesterday vs Cilic. The crowd support will do nothing to put him in a better mood.

https://www.atpworldtour.com/en/players/fedex-head-2-head/roger-federer-vs-novak-djokovic/F324/D643

The odds makers have it almost dead even. Unusual to see that? You would know best as you have basically introduced the betting angle to us here on the forum. I am suspicious of all gambling and everything related to it. Once I lost all of my money in a Lake Tahoe casino in or around 1975 I never really tried my hand at it again. It was only thirteen dollars I think but we were hitch hiking and I had to borrow a few bucks from my partner to make it home. We connected on a ride in the back of a pick up...riding with a bunch of potatoes all the way from somewhere out west to Dayton, Ohio. Not so far where Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic will tee it up once more.

I was writing a post about the Federer and Djokovic games in terms of relative net worth with an algorithm that took into such things as age, equipment and court surfaces. Even the evolution of surfaces as they just got slower and slower during the length of their long rivalry. This will mark the 46th time that they have played in competition and Novak Djokovic leads by the single win at 23-22. The key aspect regarding this match on this surface is that Roger leads 11-10 on outdoor hard surfaces.

I think we can throw out the whole shebang though from the past as today's match is sort of unique and the boys will just take it from the warm up and try to find their way to the final point and thrust one more dagger into the heart of the other. It's an important match psychologically though with the U. S. Open right around the corner and should they meet in that venue it would be very helpful to have won this match.

stotty points out a key element in todays match when he mentions that the surface is quicker. If this is the case I would think that this would weigh heavily in favour of Federer. Another key that stotty has pointed out is that Djokovic has been a bit sketchy in making his way through this field. He has gone the three set distance with his last four opponents and had the most difficult time closing out his first round opponent Stevie Johnson when he converted on his ninth match point. Djokovic managed to eek out wins against Adriano Mannarino, Grigor Dimitrov, Milos Raonic and Marin Cilic in his path to the final with Federer. Good players all but if he were sharp he probably had a couple of straight set wins in there anyways. So he found a way to win with less than his A game...maybe he isn't totally robotic after all.

stroke is a huge fan of Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev as a possible heir apparent and I can certainly see why. You cannot argue with success and Novak has enjoyed more than his share. As a matter of fact I wouldn't say that Novak is as robotic as you might think I would. I give him a lot of credit for winning under a lot of different circumstances and conditions. This is the hallmark of a great tennis player and he certainly is a man of his times. I do sort of question how far his shtik might have carried him in Classic Tennis conditions with smaller head racquets and slicker surfaces. I suspect he might have been fair game of many players of that era under those conditions. John McEnroe would have made mince meat of him under most of those conditions. Give me a whole thread devoted to that idea and I am sure I can make a pretty convincing case.

The point is that I have a lot of respect for the two handed, strong gripped game as it is and as it was. These types of opponents tend to be ultra stubborn and give very little away. Interesting fact though is that the robots of yesterday...such as Jimmy Connor, Bjorn Borg and Mats Wilander to name just a few and a few of the very best...all had more complete games than the modern robot. These guys were always attacking the net inspite of the tendency to think of them as strictly baseliners.

It's a pity we cannot chalk up Federer's 23rd win against his "Meteoric" opponent. Remember it was I who called Djokovic "Meteoric" just before he launched the epic portion of his career that consisted of a domination of the pro game like few others have done so. But these two boys are going to have to play this one out. Federer should have the advantage because of the court surface if it is quick as stotty says. I don't know if this is true but I will take stotty at his word...with his observation. Federer should have the advantage because of form but this might be a tricky assumption. Djokovic's opponents have all been some pretty heavy contenders in the past with three of them being former top ten players. Federer has had an easier draw and against the one former top ten player Stan Wawrinka he was on the verge of losing but Stan couldn't quite close him out. Federer should have the advantage as he has played one and a half less matches than Djokovic this week and he has only dropped the one set.

But as you can see these assumptions might be false assumptions. So often is the case. What appears to be the case is often not the case at all. Many times it is an illusion that the less discerning individual will bet on...thus the oddsmakers knowing something that we do not. I am beginning to get an idea about what they may be about. Factor in that Federer is also in the decline physically at 37 years old as of August eighth...the same day as my father's wife Madeline. The younger legs of Novak Djokovic have no doubt turned to steel under the stress of battle this week. He is getting some serious match play under his belt. Something which the Amazing Roger Federer does not have the luxury of having. You see...I have been harping on this for a while now and I think it showed up at Wimbledon just when he needed it most. He failed to close out an opponent that he should have.

So it is too close to call. Everything seems to cancel each other out. So it might just come down to the service game as we were discussing earlier in the thread. The Federer serve when it is on is as good as it gets in the modern game. He doesn't need the shot clock. He is a gunslinger. He gets up to the line and he delivers the goods. gzhpcu notes he is an artist. He steps up to the canvas and just starts painting away. Djokovic on the other hand takes a lifetime it seems to get the ball in play with the endless bouncing that is one of the most nauseating aspects of modern tennis. But Novak and Roger have one more thing in common with regards to their service games. These two guys are both relying on placement and tactical serving to win their service games as opposed to brute serving. Bully serving. Novak takes care of his serve so well and one reason is what he has that follows up the serve...his forehand and backhand are among the best in the world.

So if the courts are quicker I could see Federer getting on top of Djokovic and going for some heavy haymakers and knocking the bejeezus out of Novak. But if he falters at all on his service game he is going to have his work cut out for him. The one thing that lack of match play can have the most pronounce effect upon is the serve. If Federer does not have the good rhythm that enables him to "roll" on his serve he is going to be working harder on his service game than he would like to. His strategy will be to keep it short and sweet on his service game and try to slice and dice his way to a break on the Djokovic serve. Novak on the other hand is trying to get as much work out of Federer as he can...especially on Federer's own serve so he can win a battle of attrition. He wants to grind the old man into the Cincinnati pavement.

Djokovic loses his robotic moniker when he encounters Federer. Roger brings out the best or the worst in his opponents. Against the guys that believe they have a chance against him he has the effect of raising their games so he has to elevate his too. Against those that are disbelievers he rolls over them like yesterdays news. Federer wants to take an even head to head record against Novak into the U. S. Open and Novak wants to go two up. It is a mind game all the way. Physical form is such an important factor and so much of the physical form is going to be psychological. No wonder those oddsmakers stay in business. They have all of the permutations and combinations covered in the spread.

[stroke]

Great post db. As Stotty said once, these oddsmakers are a savvy bunch. Truer words never spoken. A couple more points to piggyback on db analysis. Novak is still shooting for his 1st Cincy Title(Roger with 7). Hard to believe that with his Masters 1000's and Majors record. And I do think the unprecedented crowd love that Fed gets may be a factor in this match. That kind of thing would not bother Vanilla Ice, but it sure looks to me that it is an issue for Novak. He has overcome this issue in the past, but I am not certain he is where he need to be mentally for what is coming today. It is a very interesting final, about as good as it gets. I just have a feeling also that as much as Novak wants to win this title(and beat Roger), Roger wants to take it to Novak even more.

[stotty]

ditto, a great post by don_budge.

It's definitely there for Roger to win. Cincinnati is, so they say, the quickest of the lot. Hence Roger has won 7 times and Novak hasn't won it once. But how many times has Roger seemed invincible only to look suddenly mortal when he plays Novak. You can ignore Novak's stuttering form so far to the final. When Novak plays Roger or Rafa he seems to elevate his game that bit more, quite a bit more actually. Novak will want that one and only ATP title he hasn't won...Cincinnati. History is on the line.

Novak needs to be more aggressive than thus far if he is to win, and keep an impenetrable length.

If it were the best of five I would put money on Novak, but best of three, on a quick surface, my money is on Roger. I can't wait for the final. Let's hope it's a humdinger. I'm past caring who wins these days, I just want to see quality and steel.

[stotty]

Oddsmakers here have Roger favourite by a miniscule. I think most of us on the forum have Roger as a greater favourite than that. I reckon 55 to 45 in Roger's favour.

[stotty]

Great first set. Novak served brilliantly and his baseline game is looking rock solid. So focused compared to the previous rounds of the tournament. Roger is playing well but will need to play better if Novak keeps this up. Novak looks well within himself, which is worrying for Roger.

But this is tennis and anything can happen...

[stotty]

Novak wobbles seemingly out of nowhere...2-0 Roger. We are going to miss this stuff when these two depart...terrific.

[stotty]

Roger gets broken...

You get the feeling he needs to serve two or three unreturnables a game to get through this.

[stotty]

Novak breaks for 4-3. Novak is playing so well from the back that Roger is simply breaking down. It's going to take another wobble from Novak coupled with some Roger genius to turn this around.

[stotty]

Brilliant performance from Novak...no question.

Roger may finally be past his best.

[stroke]

Novak now winning all 9 Masters 1000's along with all 4 Majors, and his record vs Roger and Rafa, puts him firmly in the #3 best of all time in my book, which is worth nothing.

[tennis_chiro]

Novak is back. He may be just 6th in the rankings and seedings for US Open (which is a problem for the top 4 seeds), but he is now 3rd in the Race to London just 175 points behind Roger and 2315 points behind Rafa. US Open, Beijing, Shanghai, Paris, London. With the form he showed today, he could sweep. Even if Rafa managed to play him in all the finals, the spread is (800 + 200 + 400 + 400 + 600 =) 2400 points. He could regain year-end #1. Question is who will hold up!

don