2018 Roland Garros. The French Open

[don_budge]

The French Open Men's Finals...Dominic Thiem vs. Rafael Nadal

oddsmakers have Nadal at about an 80% chance to win the final. A lot of money to be had at those odds if one thinks Thiem can win the match.

Well I think that Dominic Thiem has a chance and a lot of it is going to have to do with his PMA...positive mental attitude. Or lack of it. Dominic should get himself into a real lather with his mental preparation. He has to drum it into his head that he has done this. He has beaten Rafael Nadal on clay before. In fact it was just last month. In fact he has done it three times. He may be the only man alive to have done that. Beaten Nadal three times on clay, that is.

Dominic beat Nadal last month at the Madrid Open in the quarters...7-5, 6-3. He used some really curious tactics that seemed to somehow be effective against the "King of Clay". Extremely high balls with gobs of topspin on them...but best to keep these type of plays deep in the court Dom. He beat Nadal at the 2017 Italian Open in the quarters again...6-4, 6-3. Finally he took Nadal out in the 2016 Buenos Aires semifinals...6-3, 4-6, 7-6. Clearly Dominic has one advantage over all of his fellow ATP players...he knows he can beat Rafael Nadal on clay under a variety of circumstances. Now he has to go on the court beginning in the warm up and believe it. He must feel that it is his destiny and he must fight him for every single point.

Thiem has been a bit inconsistent throughout his career to give me a real solid belief that he can in fact pull this off. But it isn't me that must be convinced. It is Dominic Thiem that must be convinced. Dominic must believe that this is his time...it his moment. As I said to someone recently...Dominic must be chanting to himself, "ask not for whom the bell tolls, the bell tolls for me". That person didn't listen to me by the way.

[stroke]

I think Thiem has a better than 20% chance the oddsmakers have him at. As you say, he needs to play every point and trust his game. He is in his absolute physical prime in the most physical of tournaments. Hard to believe saying this about playing Nadal, but Thiem needs to make it physical and get him extended to a long 4 or 5 set match with the 32 year old Nadal.

[stotty]

I will be interested to see what Thiem's game plan will be. stroke hints keeping Nadal out there as long as possible might be a plan as good as any. However, Rafa is probably as super human as ever and Thiem might have to come up with something special. But he definitely needs a plan.

[don_budge]

From August 17, 2011...Somebody get this to Dominic Thiem pronto!

Technique and Tactics...Patterns Djokovic vs. Nadal

http://www.tennisplayer.net/members/...strokecat.html

I will leave it to the technique gurus to sift through all of the nuances of technique because they have done a very thorough job of it...all that I can add is his technique is pretty darn solid. I would like to have a word with regard to how these technique improvements can affect and improve a player’s ability to implement a winnable strategy.

Regards Djokovic's dominant eye...it would be interesting to note if it is his right eye that is dominant.

Some observations from the patterns videos of Djokovic and Nadal:

Nadal is standing back so far to receive the Djokovic serve...and turning his back on Djokovic after wide serves to his backhand. A clear demonstration of an improvement in the service motion and therefore service strategy on the part of Djokovic. He realizes there is a virtual gold mine wide to the Nadal backhand...if he can effectively access it.

Djokovic is going to the Nadal backhand repeatedly on every single stroke during every given point when he is not in position to hit to the Nadal forehand aggressively. When he is playing his backhand down the line it appears that he is trying to establish depth as the determining factor. Even if Nadal manages to run around his backhand to his "feared" inside out forehand, he has been effectively neutralized by Djokovic's depth of shot. When he is playing his forehand to the Nadal backhand, it appears that depth is option number one but he is also using a change in depth, pace and spin to further disrupt Nadal’s balance and comfort...by hitting wide.

After Djokovic has established the tactic that the game is going to be played on the basis of his forehand to the Nadal backhand he is freer to take liberties on the Nadal forehand as Nadal begins to anticipate defending on the backhand side. This is evident on the service game of Djokovic as well. Repeatedly gunning at the backhand, then coming up the forehand side as the element of surprise. Mixing up the location of the service when he is serving to either the backhand and the forehand...one into the body, then one wide or up the middle.

Superior depth from Djokovic due to flatter groundstrokes. Once he has Nadal off balance, Nadal is hitting shorter and shorter. On short returns by Nadal, Djokovic is in position to attack the weaker of the two sides, the backhand. He does so with intelligence, by mixing up the wide angle with the deep bomb into the corner. Again, once he has established this sort of pattern it will open up the Nadal forehand, which he now has the option to attack as well.

Djokovic net points on serve once again demonstrate his resolve to pick on the Nadal backhand by hitting deep serves into the corner forcing one hand returns and spinning backwards recoveries from Nadal.

Whatever technical improvements Djokovic has experienced epiphanies with regard to his strokes are overshadowed with the maturity of his tactics. That being said...technical improvements allow a player more flexibility in their tactics as they have a wider range of possibilities in their shots which is reflected in their ability to implement their strategy.

Clearly, the patterns of points that we have here courtesy of the website allows us to clearly examine the strategy and motives of Djokovic and how improvements to the technique of his service motion, his backhand and probably his forehand as well, have contributed to big time gains in the department of tactics. Djokovic is dissecting Nadal on his service games by first establishing his ability to pull Nadal off the court with his assortment of wide serves. So many times Nadal is seen using one hand on his backhand or spinning around with his back to his opponent in a vain attempt to recover his vantage in the point. This is not a recommended technique...turning your back to your opponent.

It appears that somehow Djokovic has come up with the idea that depth is a key to beating Nadal, particularly when it comes to hitting off his backhand side. He clearly finds that the best way to neutralize an attacking Nadal off the forehand side is to keep him deep...where he is less invincible. He also contols the middle of the court...by never allowing Nadal to get in position on the forehand side of his court to hurt him. This is no accident...it is a tactical decision. Invariably when Djokovic goes wide to the Nadal forehand it is with the intent to hurt him. One of the keys to a winnable strategy is neutralizing the opponents strength and the big strength of Nadal...and perhaps his only overwhelming strength, is the forehand. Another huge factor in sound tactics is to find ways to exploit your opponents weaker side and in Nadal’s case this is definitely his backhand. Djokovic clearly establishes that whenever he is in a position to dictate...the game is going to be played the way he wants it to be played and this would be his strength to Nadal’s weakness, or his forehand to his opponents backhand.

I was trying to make this argument for Federer’s loss to Nadal at the French. My contention was that Roger did not have a winnable game plan based on his relative strengths to his opponent’s relative weaknesses. He must establish that the game is going to be played on the Nadal backhand...ala Djokovic. If you allow Nadal to dictate with his forehand...it is going to most likely be an uphill struggle. But if you effectively carry out a game plan that is predicated by establishing play on the Nadal backhand you will find that the forehand is somewhat neutralized, at least it is not as lethal, and he will make some rather uncharacteristic errors with it as well.

Incredible demonstrations of patterns complemented with the technique resource...John. Well organized. It all adds up to a sound tactical lesson too.

Novak Djokovic's tactics sort of morphed in more recent years to initializing the attack on the Nadal forehand. It proved to be very successful as it opened up more room on the weaker side of Nadal. Roger Federer picked up on this as well and his six victories in a row are ample evidence of a tactical change as well as the technique improvement.

[don_budge]

From the Book...Bill Tilden (Chapter 13 Exploiting Your Opponents Weaknesses)

"There is another approach to this tactical problem, which is that your opponent is never completely beaten until you have broken his morale and made him conscious of his impending defeat. Pounding a weakness is one way to do it. It is the longest, often the surest and certainly the most universally used method. A method I frequently prefer is quicker, more exciting and perhaps more dangerous but if you are successful it inflicts the most lasting of all defeats. It is to play your opponent's strength until you break it. (This, of course, is the exception to the tactical rule of not giving your opponent a shot he likes to play.). Believe me, once a player finds his favourite shot won't win for him, his whole game collapses. If he can't win with his strength, he cannot win at all. Once a player admits defeat to himself he is through, even though he plays on gamely and tries to hide it. Certainly, the very fact that you attack his strong point with assurance and confidence will shake him, if you get away with it a few times. It makes him aware of your strength of purpose and will to win and keeps tremendous mental pressure on him that is worth much to you in a long match. It takes courage and determination on your part to attack his strength but if you do it of your own volition you are prepared for his reply and you can tune your own game accordingly."

The Book is William Tilden and nowhere is this more evident in this one simple paragraph. These words are crystal clear and burn like white light into a tennis player's skull. Sheer brilliance.

What makes these words so brilliant and important to any tennis player that has aspirations of greatness is the inspiration that they install in one. He uses words like courage, strength of purpose, assurance and confidence. These are words that are hopefully in Dominic Thiem's tennis lexicon this morning as he prepares for the most important battle of his career. It is a defining moment for young Thiem. Nadal is ageing and he is vulnerable to this tactic as Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer have shown.

Novak came to this conclusion first and he had the tool necessary to carry it out. A flat and penetrating cross court backhand. Roger developed this shot with a beefed up backhand enabled by a bigger racquet head and a stronger grip. Roger borrowed a page out of Novak's play book and learned that to defeat Rafael Nadal you must prevent him from camping out on the backhand side where he himself has beefed up his own backhand. Nadal loves to camp out on this side where he can get himself in position to be aggressive with his backhand while dictating everything that gets to the left of him. You must knock him off balance by attacking the forehand and then hurt him beyond recovery by either attacking the backhand or going once again to the forehand as Nadal scurries to recover on the backhand side.

Dominic Thiem has the backhand to carry out this tactic. He has the tools. Does he have the tactical acumen? Does his coach have his head in the game? Perhaps he needs don_budge as a corner man.

[don_budge]

I think Thiem has a better than 20% chance the oddsmakers have him at. As you say, he needs to play every point and trust his game. He is in his absolute physical prime in the most physical of tournaments. Hard to believe saying this about playing Nadal, but Thiem needs to make it physical and get him extended to a long 4 or 5 set match with the 32 year old Nadal.

Absolutely spot on. He has to show Nadal he can go toe to toe with him. He has to be prepared to go the distance. To beat a player like Nadal on clay he will need to defeat him mentally as well as physically. He has shown it a number of times and now this is the logical progression of culmination points for Dominic Thiem. To do it in the finals of a Grand Slam event. If he wins he becomes the poster boy of "The Education and Evolution of a Champion 10splayer". It is total commitment at this point or it won't be worth the price of admission.

[stroke]

Absolutely spot on. He has to show Nadal he can go toe to toe with him. He has to be prepared to go the distance. To beat a player like Nadal on clay he will need to defeat him mentally as well as physically. He has shown it a number of times and now this is the logical progression of culmination points for Dominic Thiem. To do it in the finals of a Grand Slam event. If he wins he becomes the poster boy of "The Education and Evolution of a Champion 10splayer". It is total commitment at this point or it won't be worth the price of admission.

toe to toe, defeat him mentally as well as physically as you say. That is what Nadal had done to everyone on clay for the 13 years or so, with a couple of blips, one to Soderling(in the match of his life, with his 61 winners) and of course Novak(who for that one year took it to Nadal). The 61 winner recipe is not really realistic, so that leaves the taking it to him option. Nadal may only seem to hit 30 plus winners or so but those shots of his, hooking to areas of the court like no other, are body blows. That is what Thiem needs to produce, clay court body blows, with an error count in the teens, just like Nadal. Listening to defeated players(Nadal's opponents) post match interviews(Del Potro a prime example) are like none I have ever heard. They pretty much just say it is virtually impossible to beat him on clay. Gasquet has pretty much said that exactly. Thiem obviously needs to get way past that sentiment from the warmups on.

[stotty]

Twice this tournament Nadal has been seriously tested only to be saved by the rain. Bolleli and Schwartzman both had him by the testicles with big hitting, route one tennis. Many of the players can do it these days as there many who can swing sledgehammer blows. The problems is having the concentration to keep it up non-stop until the end of the match...and, crucially, to hold one's nerve at the end.

It can be done, it really can. Thiem has to serve well to set the rallies up in his favour. If he can do this he can then take big cuts at Nadal's second serve and anything that lands short.

It's monumental challenge but it can be done.

[stotty]

Nadal is rock solid so far while Thiem is as nervous as hell. Thiem has to settle...and quick.

2-0 Rafa

[stotty]

3-3 first set...getting intriguing now. Thiem simply has to win the first set...has to.

[stroke]

I hope he wins the 1st, but it has been physical, his play has been physical, as I hoped. He certainly has decreased his odds significantly if he does not win the 1st.

[stotty]

Bummer...Thiem loses the first set. It's going to be all uphill from now on.

If only...if only...if only...these top players could learn to volley. Thiem missed an absolutely sitter in that service game at 4-5...and he's being doing it over the fortnight.

[stroke]

the volley was big, but more importantly to me, after missing it, he got frustrated and got away from the Nadal way of thinking, which is "all I'm thinking about is winning the next point", and "by the way, I want to win all the points".

[stotty]

I'm not convinced on Thiem's serving tactics. His percentages are down. I would like to see him mix if far more and finesse things here and there with his first serve. The rallying tactics seem to be purely physical so far. It's not going to work. It won't be enough.

[stroke]

agree on the serve. This is a classic Nadal beatdown on clay. Same ol same ol.