How Nadal won the French Open

[jhm36]

Great article, John. Good to see another take and such a deatailed one, on the match.

I don't know if you're aware of this or not, but an odd fact about Federer is that even when he losses at match, he pretty often still wins the over all point total. Here are some stats, thanks to the great ATP site.

Dubai 06: Total Points Won Federer 52% (78/149) Nadal 47% (71/149)

Rome 06: Total Points Won Federer 50% (179/353) Nadal 49% (174/353)

Monte Carlo 05: Points Won Fed 50% (113/225) Gasquet 49% (112/225)

Aus 05: Total Points Won Fed 50% (201/395) Safin 49% (194/395)

And here's an interesting flip-side, Fed winning while lossing the total points battle:

Us open 04 Total Points Won fed 49% (148/300) Agassi 50% (152/300)

Those matches Federer lost I think we can clearly point to either match points or break points that he wasted, often with unforced errors. What's up with that?

[johnyandell]

It can happen that way. If you lose or win a set easily 6-0 and then the match turns around, that can skew the total.

When you can reel off shots like Roger--or make a lot of errors--that can be a factor too. But I bet if you charted all the matches he's played--got to be in the hundreds by now--90% plus would follow the formula.

I charted a few dozen pro matches in this way and a few dozen more at other levels--and only 1 or 2 didn't fit--that's how I developed the theory.

[jhm36]

Hi John,

Oh yeah, I've been following tennis pretty closely for the last year and I can't think of anyone whose been involved in so many losses than Federer in which they actually won the overall point total. This tendency of Federer is unique to him, I beat. Says something about the number of winners he goes for, as well as his the unforced errors that can suddenly appear on relatively routine shots, giving away points that he should probably win. Also says something, I think, about his willpower to stay in the match and fight until the end, not to fold in the end.

Maybe something else as well about Federer's less than fantastic break point conversion percentage. He's ranked 38th in that at the moment, even though he's ranked 5th in points won returning first serves and 11th on points returning second serves. The way I'm seeing the stats is that Fed is unusual in his high ranking returing service points yet having a relatively low break percentage. Other people who are going in the returning of first and second serve catagories are usually good as break conversation. Hmm. Wonder what that says about Federer? That he's not aggressive enough on break points? That he's winning tougher points returning serve, points that other people wouldn't be winning? Have anything to do with his tendency to block back returns and not go for return winners?

Oliver Rochus, it turns out, is another man good at winning points returning serve, but not so good at break percentage.

That Federer backhand. What's to be done with it? Crazy amount of errors when playing Nadal. I'd love to see them play on grass.

[stroke]

It looks like you may get your wish. I saw some stat that over the last couple of years or so Federer was like 240-4 against everyone except Nadal, who he was 1-6 against. Who would have thought at the beginning of this year that Nadal and Fed would each appear to have about the same chance of winning a major on their weakest surface, grass and clay, but that appears to be the case. Even if Fed wins Wimbledon, it will make things pretty much a toss up at the US Open.

[jhm36]

Yeah, Nadal and Federer just seem to be way beyond the rest of the field at the moment, so we see Federer, not a real clay courter, going deep into clay tournaments, and here's Nadal, just one win away from the finals on the grass at Wimbledon. Says to me a also bit about the lack of depth in the game, the falling off of Hewitt and Roddick, inconsistant play from a number of folks swirling in and out of the top ten.

It's getting to be the case that if you want to win a tournament, you'd better pick one in which neither Federer nor Nadal or in it. Otherwise you're chances are slim to none.

I know it's a lot of numbers below, but I thought I'd post the stats of the matches in question in which Federer won the point total but lost the war. Federer's numbers are always on the left. What's so freaking bizarre about these losses is that Federer won not only a higher percentage of service points, but also a higher percentage of return points. He must walk away from those losses thinking, "my goodness what bad luck." No wonder he goes around with such confidence (other than when facing Nadal sometimes, that is). Even when he losses, he's clearly winning a lot of the little battles that make up a tennis match.

In only one match, the Dubai one, did Federer have less break chances than the other person. Same number of break chances for him and Gasquet. And in the other two, Federer had one more break chance than Nadal and Safin.

Man, I keep looking at those numbers and I can't believe Federer lost all four of those matches after winning in so many catagories. Strange.

Tournament Dubai
Round F
Time 113 minutes
Winner Nadal
Federer Nadal


Sevice Statistics
Aces 9 1
Double Faults 0 1
1st Serve Percentage 59% (41/69) 70% (56/80)
1st Serve Points Won 80% (33/41) 67% (38/56)
2nd Serve Points Won 57% (16/28) 54% (13/24)
Break Points Saved 40% (2/5) 0 % (0/3)
Service Games Played 14 14
Statistics on Return
1st Return Points Won 32% (18/56) 19% (8/41)
2nd Return Points Won 45% (11/24) 42% (12/28)
Break Points Won 100% (3/3) 60% (3/5)
Return Games Played 14 14
Statistics on Points
Total Service Points Won 71% (49/69) 63% (51/80)
Total Return Points Won 36% (29/80) 28% (20/69)
Total Points Won 52% (78/149) 47% (71/149


Tournament ATP Masters Series Rome
Round F
Time 306 minutes
Winner Nadal


Federer Nadal


Sevice Statistics
Aces 10 4
Double Faults 0 1
1st Serve Percentage 62% (112/180) 84% (147/173)
1st Serve Points Won 76% (86/112) 68% (101/147)
2nd Serve Points Won 51% (35/68) 53% (14/26)
Break Points Saved 66% (6/9) 60% (6/10)
Service Games Played 27 27
Statistics on Return
1st Return Points Won 31% (46/147) 23% (26/112)
2nd Return Points Won 46% (12/26) 48% (33/68)
Break Points Won 40% (4/10) 33% (3/9)
Return Games Played 27 27
Statistics on Points
Total Service Points Won 67% (121/180) 66% (115/173)
Total Return Points Won 33% (58/173) 32% (59/180)
Total Points Won 50% (179/353) 49% (174/353)


ournament Australian Open
Round S
Time 268 minutes
Winner Safin
Federer Safin


Sevice Statistics
Aces 22 16
Double Faults 8 1
1st Serve Percentage 56% (107/188) 59% (123/207)
1st Serve Points Won 82% (88/107) 73% (91/123)
2nd Serve Points Won 50% (41/81) 52% (44/84)
Break Points Saved 69% (9/13) 71% (10/14)
Service Games Played 31 31
Statistics on Return
1st Return Points Won 26% (32/123) 17% (19/107)
2nd Return Points Won 47% (40/84) 49% (40/81)
Break Points Won 28% (4/14) 30% (4/13)
Return Games Played 31 31
Statistics on Points
Total Service Points Won 68% (129/188) 65% (135/207)
Total Return Points Won 34% (72/207) 31% (59/188)
Total Points Won 50% (201/395) 49% (194/395)


ournament ATP Masters Series Monte Carlo
Round Q
Time 140 minutes
Winner Gasquet
Federer Gasquet


Sevice Statistics
Aces 4 1
Double Faults 1 3
1st Serve Percentage 61% (69/112) 56% (64/113)
1st Serve Points Won 65% (45/69) 57% (37/64)
2nd Serve Points Won 44% (19/43) 55% (27/49)
Break Points Saved 25% (2/8) 50% (4/8)
Service Games Played 16 16
Statistics on Return
1st Return Points Won 42% (27/64) 34% (24/69)
2nd Return Points Won 44% (22/49) 55% (24/43)
Break Points Won 50% (4/8) 75% (6/8)
Return Games Played 16 16
Statistics on Points
Total Service Points Won 57% (64/112) 56% (64/113)
Total Return Points Won 43% (49/113) 42% (48/112)
Total Points Won 50% (113/225) 49% (112/225)

[lukman41985]

Jim, you're the man! Thanks for the great stats.

[shootermcmarc0]

I've read that the courts at Wimby are slower than they used to be, Jim, how do you feel about that? Do you think that Nadal would still be there if the courts played faster? In an interview Justine said that the courts started to play like clay once they were worn down.

[jhm36]

Hi Guys,

I've read that not only are the courts slower but that the balls are heavier. Funny how tennis is changing to fit Nadal's game. He sure did come along at the right time. I think he's the second best player on tour right now, with a mental edge over Federer that's allowing him to mass up such a huge lead in head-to-head terms against Federer by Federer cracking at crucial moments in the matches. (Often playing on clay and slower hard courts helps as well.)

Would Nadal still be around if the game wasn't being played more slowly at Wimbledon? With this same dream-draw the he's had I think so, with the possible exception of Kendrick taking him down with his hard serving and go for broke second serves. Nadal has faced three people out of the top 100 and one out of the top 200. Average rank of his opponents is 99! He's made it to the semis without meeting anyone higher than 18. Wow. Talk about the path opening up for you.

That kind of draw happens though. A browse through the records brought up Sampras at Wimbledon 2000. No one over 21 and an average rank of 87.

I can't think of many people that I've seen at Wimbledon this year who could have beaten Nadal. Let's see. Maybe Ancic at his best, being strong in tie-breaks because I don't think his return game is good enough to break Nadal enough to win the matches that way. Maybe an on-fire Gonzalez. Maybe Hewitt all pumped up with the lawn-mower out. A well playing Baghdatis has a shot at Nadal today, especially if he comes up and attacks those short balls that Nadal seems to hit pretty frequently. Of course, that opens him up to the powerful Nadal passing shots. Should be a fun match, maybe the match of the tournament so far.

I bought the Wimbledon on-demand package and have seen bits and pieces of lots of matchs as well as tapes I've made of the stuff on ESPN2 and NBC, and I just haven't been that impressed by the over-all level of play. A few people playing strong, most muddling through. I think the semi-final mach ups are pretty much right. From what I've seen Federer, Baghdatis, and Nadal have been the three best players over the past week. Bjorkman the best in his quarter? Maybe. Hard to say.

All that's a round-about way of saying that given what I've seen of the players this year and Nadal's skill and willpower and his great draw I don't think the surface and heavy balls, other than in the Kendrick match, had an impact in getting Nadal to the semis. He's play, and the lack of it on the other side of him, got him to the semis.

What do you guys think? You seen anyone this year that looks like they could have took out Nadal? Anyone out there who could have troubled Federer?

Federer's draw turned out easier than expected. Federer of course is playing out of his mind, but Gasquet mentally checked out. Henman looked old. Mahut was the surprise but Federer rarely losses to people what big serves, or anyone named something other than Nadal! Berdych was hurt and looked out of sorts. And Ancic played well for him, but clearly that's not in Federer's league. I not sure about people saying he should have come to net more. He lost more points at net than he won. I can't fault him for not pushing that more.

[crosscourt]

I guess that we all look at the Federer - Nadal match up and think that Nadal does so well against Federer because (i) he is an outstanding player and (ii) his game matches up against Federer very well. It's all about, it seems, that high ball into the backhand. As you may know, if you have followed my train of thought in numerous posts about this, it seems to me to be about more than the grounsdstrokes. Nadal has a way through any serve into the ad court, and that's where so many of the key points in a tennis match are won and lost.

Assuming that Nadal beats Baghdatis, and Baghdatis has a shot at him, Sunday's final could do one of two things. Either give Federer some practice at beating Nadal, and confidence playing out a style of beating Nadal that gives Federer confidence to take to other surfaces. Or reveal the true extent of whatever mental edge the advantage in the match up has given Nadal over Federer.

Overall, I agree with all the posts that comment on the moderate standard of play at Wimbledon. It seems difficult to see how it can get better without a longer grass court season. There are lots of players out there who look as if they could be good, but just don't have the courttime or matches under their belts to get better.

cc

[jhm36]

You said it, cc.

I wonder why more people don't try to hit the high ball to Federer's backhand. Sure, they attack it, and frequently with some success due to errors but I doesn't look to me like they're trying to put more spin on the ball to bring it up higher on Roger. Maybe they are and it's just not that seeable on tv.

Federer's backhand, by the way, this Wimbledon seems to be as good as I've ever seen it. If that thing breaks down again at the final I think we'll know that a big part of the Nadal advantage is mental.

There's no doubt Federer's been playing better than Nadal up to this point. What a shame it would be to see another let-down like the French Open final. I think we'd all love to see a good match between these two playing their best. I can't wait.

[stroke]

I just can't think of another player that could possibly attack Roger's backhand with the intensity, weight of shot, that Nadal does. John has measured Nadal's forehand with up to 5000 RPM, and it is going at a pretty good MPH also. Nadal doesn't really ever kind of flatten it out, it is such an oppresive shot as it is, he has no reason to. Maybe John will let us know sometime, but Nadal's consistent barrage of RPM's and MPH with his forehand seems to be unmatched in tennis. It looks kind of like a left handed uppercut, and those blows seem to just take their toll on about everyone in tennis. Throw in him being left handed, going cross court to a right hander, and the fact that he may be the best mover in tennis, and one can certainly see Roger's problem. I personally think Roger has one of the very best one handed backhands in tennis. Tomorrow's final is going to be very interesting, I am eager to see how it goes. I personally am pulling for Roger to win it. I feel, like some other folks,that when Roger is in form, he is playing tennis at a higher level than it has ever been played at, but there is that lingering issue with Nadal.

[jhm36]

Oh yeah, Stroke, I think you're right. No one other than Nadal can send those balls with such spin and bounce and MPH to a right-hander's backhand like Nadal using his forehand. It just looks to me like such a great tactic to use against Roger, who is, after all, for the last two years beating just about everyone else he faces, I'm surprised people don't seem to be trying something new and giving it their best to sent those high powerful balls to Federer's backhand. I guess people think they have to go at Federer with their best game, the game they've spent a life-time developing, and don't think they can implent a change in that well-enough to pull it off. It's not like Nadal is changing *his* normal game to take down Federer. Nadal does what he does to everyone.

I hope Federer lets go of that macho thing he's got going on and doesn't try to beat Nadal's forehand with his own topspin backhand. Fed's got the best backhand slice on tour, uses it fantastically on grass, and should work well against Nadal.

Fed's playing great. Nadal is winning but not as dominating as I've seen him before. Poor Baghdatis, going 0 for 9 on break points. Fed's only faced 9 breaks the whole tournament. Nadal's faced 18 and has done a great job of rarely being broken. Only twice, I think. Same as Fed. Something's got to give tomorrow. Fed's break conversion is crazy-high: 63 percent, far higher than his ytd 41 percent.

From what I can tell it would take a nightmare scenario for a Federer fan like me for Nadal to win tomorrow: Fed's level will have to drop and Nadal's will have to go up and then there'd be no doubt that Federer has a serious mental issue when playing Nadal. Maybe he'll finally break through ala Mauresmo today, coming back from a set down.

[gsheiner]

I think the key will be how Federer returns Nadal's lefty slice serves. I'm sure Fed will be slicing far more off the returns than he did in paris. And I expect that he will try the chip and charge on second balls.

If Fed has trouble breaking Nadal and the sets get tight late ( 4-4, 5-5 etc.) I think the mental advantage shifts hugely to Nadal. Fed knows that if he loses this match he has no claim to number 1 in the world. As for Nadal, this has already been an unbelievable result.

I'm going to try and chart the match tomorrow but I'm willing to guess that Nadal will serve 75-80 % of the time to Fed's backhand.

[jhm36]

hi forum, and John in particular. Got any thoughts on the Federer-Nadal Wimbledon final? Agressive margin stats? Anything in particular about the Federer backhand that cost him so many points against Nadal at the French Open? How about the number of Federer unforced errors. His highest total, I think, in the last three years. Nadal made a lot as well. Nerves surely getting to them at different points in the match. A good match, but it's a shame to see how these guys can bring down each other's level of play. I had a chance to watch the 2004 final between Federer and Roddick. Now that was one heck of a final. Federer mentioned it after the Nadal match, saying how Roddick was harder to beat on that day than Nadal was. Whew, he was right on. If I remember correctly, Roddick went 0-6 on break points in the final set. Talk about misses his chances to sent it to a fifth set. The first and final sets of these two matches were nothing like each other. Surely that most have been one of the very best matches Roddick ever played against Federer. That and the one win in Canada.