Observations from Federer v. Nadal 2006 Dubai Final

[jhm36]

So I just found the stats for the 2005 Australian Open on the web and it turns out that even though Hewitt overall had more unforced errors than Nadal, in the sets that Hewitt won, he had fewer or, as in the case with the last set, the same number: 8. (14 to 7 winners in favor of Hewitt that set.)
The total count of unforced errors was Nadal 49: Hewitt 61.

The pattern is almost the same with the five setter Nadal had with Youzhny, the person with the fewest unforced errors winning every set other than the third, in which Youzhny had 7 to Nadal's 6 and still took the set 6-4. 14 winners for Youzhney to Nadal's 2 in that set. Looks like Nadal took a little break that set.

Wish every tournament had stats as good as the majors.

[lukman41985]

jhm,
Thanks for those calculations. Good work. I'll ponder your questions.

CraigC,
Thanks for the laugh.

[jhm36]

Yeah, those are stats that reflect basics of the game. Keep the ball in play and you've got a chance to win the set. I'll have to go back and do a similiar accounting of the winners and the winners to unforced errors difference and see if there's as strong a correlation has between wins and unforced errors.

Speaking of unforced errors, anybody see the Federer Rochus match last night. Federer had 59 unforced. That's 66 percent of Rochus' points. 59 UE are even more than those sloppy Davydenko and Haas matchs of the Australian Open this year, and those went 4 and 5 sets. This must have been painful to watch. In their previous three matches with Rochus, Federer only faced a total of 2 break points, 1 of which he converted at the US Open. This match Rochus had 6 and converted 1. Given their previous matches this should have been a walk-over for Federer, but it looks like the poor serving and unforced errors kept this tight until the end.

Still Rochus is playing good this year. Had a match point against a rusty Nadal, only just lossing 5-7 in the third, and beat Safin who had come off a win against Davydenko. He could be playing the best tennis of his life.

[mntlblok]

Rochus

I just watched the Rochus-Federer match. I think Rochus can play and I bet he'll make a very good coach some day.

This idea is a little "out there", especially with Nadal being practically the world's fastest human, but I wonder what happens to that 5,000 RPM of topspin when someone decides to add a few more thousand to it with a "hard" drop shot swing? (I find it much easier to hit a drop shot off a heavily topspun ball). If it *is* possible to add to that 5,000 RPM, and say he has that much spin on one of the balls that he lands short, and say he's playing fifteen feet behind the baseline, and say this wicked amount of spin causes the ball to bounce back over the net. . .

I did say it was "out there".

Kevin B
Savannah

[CraigC]

Hey MTN-

Even an "out there" idea has merit these days when one is trying to figoure out Nadal. I think the idea of bringing him in is a quality one, taking away his heavy spin advantage and making points shorter. Obviously Fed believes shorter points will benefit him in this battle. I also think Nadal at the net is much less fearful than Nadal at the baseline. However, as a claycourter, he is pretty gifted on th dropshot and its options so I'd like to see it palyed against him many times before subscribing to the tactic. More importantly, I think the shot is more difficult as a results of the spin. It appears even the best players can't get that darn ball down using the slice. The spin is just too heavy. I spent today with several top junior boys trying to have them bring the heavy ball down using the slice. For those not familiar, this ball can best be fed by hammering it onto your side first, (like a ping pong serve) and then bouncing it over the net. This will dramatically increase the spin as it hits the ground on the other side, and you can vary the arc to affect your players. I believe I accurately simulated Nadal's trajectory and pace and not one of them could drop or slice effectively against it. Either they need more talent, or we need a better tactic--probably a bit of both. Keep the ideas coming, regardless of how farfetched they seem. I still think a chip and charge play on the deuce side would be interesting, but god that kid has good hands. ON the other hand, Roddick moves like a pregnant yak on 3 legs going uphill.

CC

[jhm36]

Got to head off to work now, but this morning I just watched the first two sets of the Nadal-Ljubicic Madrid final, which I cannot believe that Ljubicic is going to lose because the dominated Nadal 63 62 those first two sets, really pushing Nadal around. He had approximately 30 winners in those two sets. Something like 12 aces and a large number of serves unreturned. Really having a strong serving day. And was that backhand ever holding up to Nadal's forehand! Really incredible stuff. If you didn't know Nadal's forehand gave him buckets of points by going to the other guy's backhand you wouldn't be able to guess it by this first two sets. Ljubicic is hitting winners with his backhand off Nadal's forehand, taking the ball early. His backhand is also doing a great job returning Nadal's serve deep and with pace. I've forgotten how this match turns in Nadal's favor, but I'm guessing that Ljubicic's backhand gives out on him. That an his serve. He's keeping the points very short in his service games.

Speaking of dropshots, Ljubicic gets, if I remember correctly, 3 out of 3 points by hitting droppers on Nadal.

His groundstokes in general have good pace and great depth and he's doing a fantastic job of pushing Nadal deep into a corner and then coming in behind that to put away a volley. Fair number of stop/drop volleys.

I'm looking at the stats now and can't believe Ljubicic lost this match. Total number of points in his favor: 154 to 145. 30 aces. Got 5 breaks to Nadal's 4. Over the next two sets that he losses, the third and fourth, he only has a total of one less point than Nadal. Wow, how can you lose two sets and yet there only be a difference of a single point, and no tie break? I guess by going 0 for 4 on break point while Nadal goes 2 for 4.

In this match Ljubicic won a higher percentage of points in his own serve than Nadal, and he also one a higher percentage of return points! Had more total points. Sound familiar? Yet another case of Nadal lossing most of the battles yet winning the biggest points along the way.

Recommended viewing for those looking for clues to beating Nadal.

[mntlblok]

Dropper technique

Hey MTN-

More importantly, I think the shot is more difficult as a results of the spin. It appears even the best players can't get that darn ball down using the slice. The spin is just too heavy. I spent today with several top junior boys trying to have them bring the heavy ball down using the slice. For those not familiar, this ball can best be fed by hammering it onto your side first, (like a ping pong serve) and then bouncing it over the net. This will dramatically increase the spin as it hits the ground on the other side, and you can vary the arc to affect your players. I believe I accurately simulated Nadal's trajectory and pace and not one of them could drop or slice effectively against it.
CC

That's great to learn that feed technique. Makes sense.

Is it the spin or just the height of the "kick" after the ball bounces? It does seem to me to be more difficult to underspin a high ball. My mental picture for underspin is to catch the ball above the "equator" but with what "feels" like an open racket face and use sort of "U" shaped swing that "feels" like the strings are following the contour of the ball from that "above the equator" point, down the back of the ball, and then across the bottom - sort of a "Jai-Alai" effect. I find it difficult to keep the racket face from "closing" on those high balls.

There are two basic ways that I try to hit a drop shot. I primarily try to wait and catch the ball late and use at least as much *side* spin as underspin (causing the "kick" to be towards the side fence), and it seems to work best if I catch the ball fairly low to the ground.

The one I'm pondering for adding to the kind of spin Nadal generates *feels* like it is hit as described above for an underspin drive, but with the initial contact point *below* the equator, and the finish up the *front* of the ball. This one works better catching the ball at a much higher level off the ground, and is more likely to result in a ball that bounces back towards the net. It typically has a higher trajectory, but if you *could* find a way to add significantly to Nadal-type spin rates, I can picture a bounce that even Nadal couldn't run down.

I remember seeing one of the guys in the National 40's clay courts here who used this technique for some of his drop volleys. He liked to use it on match points, because, as the opponent would be reaching over the net trying to run the ball down, he would shake the guy's hand.

What do you think?

Kevin B
Savannah

[jhm36]

Good post about the drop shot. And speaking of them, there isn't an article on how to make dropshots on this site, is there? Something to look forward to in the future.

I rarely use them, mainly when I'm running up to short ball or replying to someone else's dropshot, but when they do they're also like Kevin's usual way, catching it late with lots of side spin.

Jim

[CraigC]

More theories

Bagdhatis played Rafa yesterday at Indian wells. I believe he was quite successful taking Nadal's backhand on the rise and driving it offensively. His tactic seemed to be --find the Nadal backhand, and rip the first attackable ball for a winner. Anytime Marcos got stuck in the rally to Nadal's forehand, he generally lost--Rafa simply outrallied him on this diagonal. Still, I think Roger might learn from Marcos in that anytime you can make Nadal hit a backhand, you should look to attack on that ball. On the other hand, Roger does not attack with his backhand nearly as well as Marcos so that may not work. Additionally, Marcos lost the match in straight sets.
But, it appeared Nadal realized that Bagdhatis was attacking off his backhand ball, and generally played his backhands more down the center and moved to inside out position early in the second set. Score of second set when Nadal played from the inside out position ... 6-0 Nadal!
Roger is going to have his hands full this sunday and it is going to be a pleasure to watch him try to dissect Nadal's game. I plan on learning a ton from this one. Let's hope they both get there.

CC

[jhm36]

Yeah, from watching some of the Blake-Nadal US Open match and the Nadal-Ljubicic Madrid one, it seems like you can put some pressure on Nadal by really attacking with your backhand. But, like Craig said, this is a problem for Federer because he seems to use his backhand more to simply stay in the point, block back serves, slice to disrupt the rhythm of the rally, or for some amazing passing shots. But as far as attacking with it, I just don't think I've seen him do a large amount lot of that, using his forehand more to pressure people and finish points.

I didn't see the Baghdatis match and I'm STILL waiting for my source to send me the Nadal-Federer Dubai final. Sigh. Sometimes even good people move more slowly than you expect they will.

I expect they'll be things to learn from the upcoming Blake-Nadal match as well. We'll see if Blake can duplicate his success, big ground strokes in coming in behind nice approach shots. Seems to me Federer could do a little better picking of the balls he comes in behind. Others think that as well?

[jhm36]

blake nadal

Let's wake this thread up again. Blake's now 2-0 against Nadal, winning 5 of 6 sets. What does he have to teach Federer about playing Nadal? Flatter shot? More agressive on returning second serves? More agressive overall? Less backhand slice? Anybody see this match? I haven't, but I do have the US Open win.

[mntlblok]

Anybody see this match?

I saw a couple of tremendously talented and athletic individuals do some amazing things. Nadal's defense could have demoralized a lesser player. I think Blake's net game is more solid than most other pro's. Can't really think of any areas where he is weak, now. I'm anxious to see how his confidence level holds up against Federer. Ought to be another fun one to watch.

Kevin B