Why can't Isner and Karlovic win big tie-breaks?

[nickw]

Isner blew 10 match points today at Queen's against Muller, losing 6-3 6-7 (16-18) 6-7 (7-9). It's the 6th consecutive time he's lost a match that has gone to a deciding tie-break. Ivo Karlovic is currently on a run of 11 straight losses in matches that have gone to a deciding breaker.

What's going on? Is their huge serving not as big as an advantage in tie-breaks as it would seem? Is there no fear factor from their opponents when it comes to tie-breaks, as you might expect there to be? Is it more a mental issue, struggling to overcome the losing sequence?

What odds these huge servers are on a run of 17 losses in a row in final set breakers? In the realm of Leicester City winning our Soccer league maybe (which was 5000/1 odds). I'm fascinated by it anyway!

[stotty]

Isner blew 10 match points today at Queen's against Muller, losing 6-3 6-7 (16-18) 6-7 (7-9). It's the 6th consecutive time he's lost a match that has gone to a deciding tie-break. Ivo Karlovic is currently on a run of 11 straight losses in matches that have gone to a deciding breaker.

What's going on? Is their huge serving not as big as an advantage in tie-breaks as it would seem? Is there no fear factor from their opponents when it comes to tie-breaks, as you might expect there to be? Is it more a mental issue, struggling to overcome the losing sequence?

What odds these huge servers are on a run of 17 losses in a row in final set breakers? In the realm of Leicester City winning our Soccer league maybe (which was 5000/1 odds). I'm fascinated by it anyway!

It's tough to understand statistics like those. You would think a big server would be favourite in the shoot out scenario of a tie-break.

On a slightly different subject, I always think players with overwhelming serves tend to be more deficient in the other areas of their game than more moderate servers. They often don't move as well and get into trouble when the rallies get longer or they have to make shots from awkward positions. I wouldn't label all the huge servers in this category, but I would say it applies to most. Having a really huge serve, it seems, comes at a price.

Great game today: England 2 wales 1. We scored in the 93rd minute...great stuff.

[bdole]

I think it's a sign both players are having a rough season. I feel like I remember a commentator presenting stats to the opposite effect for Isner a couple of seasons ago. Given he has one of if not the most dominant serve on tour, coupled with a mediocre return game, it shouldn't come as a surprise that he plays more tiebreakers than just about anybody. At the time (2014), I believe he had a very high win percentage in those tiebreakers given the frequency he played them. He probably anticipated it and was mentally prepared for it in every set.

[johnyandell]

That Isner backhand...probably the worst technical shot of any player in the top 100.

[gzhpcu]

Maybe because the rest of their game is not up to par. They have difficulty breaking the opponent's serve. One double fault or bad serve and they might lose...

[don_budge]

Soccer...aka "football"

On a slightly different subject, I always think players with overwhelming serves tend to be more deficient in the other areas of their game than more moderate servers. They often don't move as well and get into trouble when the rallies get longer or they have to make shots from awkward positions. I wouldn't label all the huge servers in this category, but I would say it applies to most. Having a really huge serve, it seems, comes at a price.

Great game today: England 2 wales 1. We scored in the 93rd minute...great stuff.

I never will understand the soccer fascination of Europe. It is as consuming as all American sports combined. How can you possible wait 93 minutes through such a boring game. You cannot even use your hands for crying out loud!

You would think that the overwhelming serves would only enhance the rest of the game.

[nickw]

Great replies. Aaah Soccer, we love it! When you wait 93 minutes for something, then it just feels so much better!

I guess there must be confidence issues at the root of the problem, because as bdole said, Isner has had winning runs too. Karlovic also. When these guys are confident, they would expect not to drop one service point in 6, and then the pressure is massively on the opponent as they will feel the need to win every service point on their own serve.

Yes, the rest of the game with these big guys definitely doesn't match up, but both have monster forehands capable of winning a return point in one shot.

Isner's last final set breaker win was versus Federer in Paris 2015, Karlovic's last one was versus Delbonis in Vienna 2014! When will they break the run?

[don_budge]

Football...still don't get it after all these years

Great replies. Aaah Soccer, we love it! When you wait 93 minutes for something, then it just feels so much better!

Not quite. In this particular case that doesn't hold true. The interesting thing in Europe is that this football mania transcends all cultures. Every single culture here has the same problem...the same obsession. It is very difficult for me to understand when I see a single child someplace playing around with a football. The sum of all of the sports rabidry in the States is the equivalent of this singular football obsession here on the Continent. The fans are even more stupid...if that were possible as the worst are drunk and unruly and will fight over something as stupid as their allegiance to a particular team. This only speaks to the overall stupidity of the overall race so nobody is being singled out here.

Tie-breakers were designed for the best overall player to prevail. While big servers may find themselves in tie-breakers solely on their ability to hold serve eventually the thing is going to even itself out in the end. The ability to get the return back in play on a key point is going to be the difference in this case and the server is going to find himself in a spot where he cannot serve himself out of a jam. Down 15-40 all it takes is two unreturnable serves...but facing set point or match point in a tie-breaker is quite another thing.

I actually remember playing matches when there wasn't a tie-breaker. That was the real thing...originally. It was interesting when you get past 6-all how the psychology of holding serve changes the whole dimension of the play. Can you imagine what it would be like without the tie-breaker? It would be like leaving home without your cellphone.

By the way...what are your thoughts about a Brexit? Speaking of feeling like leaving the house without the phone.

[klacr]

The answer is under our noses...on this site

Maybe it's this?
Great article for John and Ivo.


http://www.tennisplayer.net/members/...g_the_breaker/

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

[nickw]

Not quite. In this particular case that doesn't hold true. The interesting thing in Europe is that this football mania transcends all cultures. Every single culture here has the same problem...the same obsession. It is very difficult for me to understand when I see a single child someplace playing around with a football. The sum of all of the sports rabidry in the States is the equivalent of this singular football obsession here on the Continent. The fans are even more stupid...if that were possible as the worst are drunk and unruly and will fight over something as stupid as their allegiance to a particular team. This only speaks to the overall stupidity of the overall race so nobody is being singled out here.

There is some sense in what you're saying, I imagine it's just something that is embedded in human nature that attracts all cultures and all types of people to sport. At the end of the day, like all sports, there is a skill factor to admire, and a scoring system to excite. All I would say is that football isn't just about scoring the goals and winning games, but a lot of pride is taken in defensive abilities, and keeping clean sheets. Leicester's victory was based from an incredibly solid defence. A 0-0 draw away at a top club is easily deemed a fantastic result!

By the way...what are your thoughts about a Brexit? Speaking of feeling like leaving the house without the phone.

Maybe Stotty will have more inspiring views than me on this. I've been disillusioned with politics for a long time, and although this is a bit different, I am very much undecided. I haven't spent enough time to fully understand all the pro's and cons, but it seems for every convincing argument one way, there is a convincing counter-argument the other. Does anyone know with any certainty what the best choice will prove to be for Britain?...I'm not so sure.

[nickw]

Maybe it's this?
Great article for John and Ivo.


http://www.tennisplayer.net/members/...g_the_breaker/

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

It's a good article, with lots of sound advice. I should have known there would be something somewhere on this site that would have some information!

[nickw]

Congrats Ivo Karlovic, who breaks his sequence at the 12th attempt, and in fantastic style, to win the Newport title 14-12 in the final set breaker, saving 3 match points. Great stuff for the big man! Oldest ATP title winner for 37 years.

[klacr]

It's tough to understand statistics like those. You would think a big server would be favourite in the shoot out scenario of a tie-break.

On a slightly different subject, I always think players with overwhelming serves tend to be more deficient in the other areas of their game than more moderate servers. They often don't move as well and get into trouble when the rallies get longer or they have to make shots from awkward positions. I wouldn't label all the huge servers in this category, but I would say it applies to most. Having a really huge serve, it seems, comes at a price.

Good win for Karlovic today. Always tough to lose a match like that but a huge thrill to pull that off. Both Ivo and Muller had championship points.

Stotty's point on big servers resonates with me. I actually find I'm truly playing my best when I'm not always serving my best. If that makes any sense. Sometimes I'll get into such a good serving rhythm that few shots come back or are weak reply. Games go by where I feel I can almost check out. But when my serve percentage is not that high, I feel I actually focus and make better decisions and better shots due to the the necessity of having to do it. Not relying on cheap or quick points to get the job done and having to truly focus on constructing points, not just reaching back and popping a big serve and hoping for the best. I'm more purposeful in my execution and more precise in my decision making.

Good point Stotty.

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

[gzhpcu]

The lovers of the "good old days" will have loved this match. Practically no groundstrokes. Just serve - bang, serve/volley bang. Return winner - bang. For over two hours.

[don_budge]

The Big Tie-Break...

Why couldn't Karlovic get it done on his 54th serving game and in the tie-break? He had won 53 straight games without dropping his serve. Compelling questions...