2016 Mercedes Cup...ATP 250...Stuttgart, Germany

[don_budge]

Roger Federer milestone...

Federer passes Ivan Lendl with his 1,072nd win of his career. I would venture to say that Lendl's competition was much tougher which may say something about Roger's standing in the big picture.

Interesting that the winning percentages of Jimmy Connors, Ivan Lendl, Roger Federer and John McEnroe are so close. I don't think that Federer has a realistic chance of catching Connors.

[gzhpcu]

Wow, Thiem leads 5-0 in the second set, Federer climbs back to a tie-break, has matchball, and loses it. Thiem goes on to win in three sets. Great player.

[stotty]

It's been a bit of a struggle all week for Federer. The scorelines tell you that...tight sets against routine fodder. But it's a decent start after such a long break. You never know, he's so gifted he might be able to get everything together for Wimbledon.

[don_budge]

Roger's condition...

It's been a bit of a struggle all week for Federer. The scorelines tell you that...tight sets against routine fodder. But it's a decent start after such a long break. You never know, he's so gifted he might be able to get everything together for Wimbledon.

It's been a long break and at the same thiem Dominic Time has had his nose to the grindstone. That's why I surmised it was Thiem's time. Who were you picking...I sort of assumed it was Federer.

Roger's form? It's inconclusive in a sense but on the other hand I am not getting my hopes up for a serious run on Wimbledon. The reason? Conditioning. He has only sixteen more days to hone his skills but he seems to be struggling as you say with lesser opponents. His age increasingly becomes a factor...particularly in three out of five set venues and a tournament that lasts a full two weeks.

Roger is rusty. The problem is that no amount of lubrication is going to make him shine like he once did. The truth is that for all intents and purposes he is probably through as a serious contender for important titles. He will have to stay healthy and as he has found out his progression is dependent upon him staying injury free. The problem is as he found out that while trying to cover a lot of ground rehabilitating from the knee injury he hurt his back to further complicate things.

Does he play the next tournament in Halle? It's a tricky and precarious climb now. He slipped a number of times on the grass and only one false move can put him out for weeks. We are looking at the post Roger Federer culmination point dead in the eyes. I don't like the looks of it.

[stotty]

Who were you picking...I sort of assumed it was Federer.

Yes Federer. Rusty though he might be, he is still better than most of tour whatever deficit he's carrying. I would back him to muddle through and win most matches...and, yes, even against the upcoming Thiem.

Does he play the next tournament in Halle?

Roger has to play Halle. There is too little time to get in gear for Wimbledon. He has to go all out to make himself match ready. He has no choice.

I think it doubtful he will be fully ready for Wimbledon. Maybe with a good draw and if he can sneak through the first week....who knows.

[don_budge]

Picking with the Heart...Roger Federer

Yes Federer. Rusty though he might be, he is still better than most of tour whatever deficit he's carrying. I would back him to muddle through and win most matches...and, yes, even against the upcoming Thiem.

I normally always go with Federer. He is my last remaining hope for tennis...period. You can imagine my disposition towards the game now. It wasn't all that good before.

What Roger is facing increasingly is reality and realistically the first thing to go is the legs. He can make up for it with that quick first step (which I believe it was you that said is in the mind) but then reality must set in. This is what he is up against...Father Time. Interesting that now Dominic Thiem is the up and comer...even the name is foreboding to Federer's issues. When he gets up against a player that is playing at the level of the best in the world he has some serious disadvantage to make up. Ever since he switched to the bigger racquet his biggest issue with Novak Djokovic has been an issue of fresher legs.

You can see it a bit in the serve now as it seems to veer off course for a spell here and there. He doesn't have his legs under him. When he played Taylor Fritz it was hard to believe how hard they were hammering the ball at each other but when Fritz took that set from him it was a bad sign of things to come. Just the necessary energy of completing that tight three setter laid him a bit weak for Florian Mayer who in turn took him to two tie-breakers which is more energy than he wanted to expend against the 250 something player in the world. This set the table for the climbing Dominic Thiem...Federer had been weakened by attrition in his effort to get to the semi's. This was only a ATP 250 so we can gage how far off of his peak form he is but we aren't ready to admit that he cannot miraculously make a good showing at Wimbledon.

At this point judging from what I saw it looks awfully dismal for Federer. If he had been able to start his comeback in Miami where he caught the flu and had to withdraw he might have been somewhat on track. But that flu bug might have set him back some weeks alone and then he came down with the back ailment in Madrid. Italy was a waste of time as he wasn't able to get his legs under him and now he is somewhat desperate...he doesn't have the energy to expend on a full machine comeback as he will only injure himself again and all that he can do is to hope to gradually get himself back into form which will in all likelihood take a matter of months. We can probably rule him out as a serious challenger to any three out of five venues.

I am pretty down on the game of tennis. I don't feel any particular sadness for Roger personally but the game is going to suffer. Where will the inspiration come for anyone in the future to play the all court game? Answer...it probably won't. The modern paradigm being what it is has firmly established itself for the past 15 years or so and coaches and players that know and more importantly believe in this kind of play are nearly extinct.

I am hoping for a good showing from Roger at Wimbledon...but for once I won't be betting on it. I only bet with my heart.

[stotty]

I only saw the tail end of Roger's match with Thiem, but Roger didn't seem to be moving well towards the end. I thought he must be injured but the commenetatoes weren't alluding he was so maybe it was my imagination.

Ever heard of Simpson's Paradox?

http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2014/01/what-every-pro-tennis-player-does-better-than-roger-federer/283007/

[stroke]

Great find there lc. I have never heard of this Simpson's Paradox, but it was a great article on Federer. I certainly agree with the writer as it relates to Fed. Evidence of this was once again on display yesterday as Fed was down 5-1 2nd set to Thiem. Fed does just not let games/sets go.

[don_budge]

klacr on the Simpson's Paradox

Ever heard of Simpson's Paradox?

http://www.theatlantic.com/entertain...ederer/283007/

Didn't klacr post something about Simpson's Paradox....January 24, 2016, Australian Open thread.

You'll be happy to know that Berdych made his way to the net 40+ times in the match. He may not have the most ideal transition game or technically perfect volleys, but he is willing to come in and well, that's a start. He won 34 forays to the net out of 46 attempts. That's 74 %. What was also interesting is that this match was a Simpson's paradox. Bautista Agut actually won more points than Berdych, but still lost. 144 to 140.

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

klacr again...January 14, 2014

Very interesting article on Roger Federer. Losing matches when you've won more points than your opponent. Must read...


http://www.theatlantic.com/entertain...ederer/283007/

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

It looks like he pulls it out about once a year or so...May 7, 2015

Federer lost to Kyrgios in 3 tie break sets. Once again thought, it was a Simpsons Paradox. Roger won more points than Kyrgios. 131 to 127 for those keeping score at home.

Federer did a terrible job returning serve. Only 18 of 85 points won off first serve return.
Few days rest and gear up for Rome.

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

We might call it klacr's paradox...January 23, 2015

Seppi played well. It was actually a bit scary. he was seeing the ball like a watermelon. He was throwing haymakers and connecting with them. He was so consistent from the baseline I never saw him ever play at that level before. Ever. He deserved the win.

Federer did not play that well however. He just had a bad day at the office. A few tactical mistakes as well. He was content of running around that backhand to hit inside out forehands to the point that it was getting uncomfortable to watch. He was threading the needle quite a bit and when Seppi saw the opportunity he went for the backhand down the line.

Fed gave up too much court for his own good and Seppi was able to make him pay. Seppi also hit lots of balls deep down the middle giving Federer little to work with as far as angles. Would have been nice to see Federer get to the net more but Seppi was lacing the ball so well Fed didn't have lots of opportunities to attack and when he did Seppi would hit a screaming pass and Federer got disenfranchised with the idea.

With all this said, here is an interesting factoid...
Total points won: Seppi-144 Federer-145.

The Simpson's paradox rears its ugly head for Federer once again. I posted a link in the "interesting links" thread about this phenomenon and how Federer has lost more matches than any other player when winning more points in the match. Here it is...

http://www.theatlantic.com/entertain...ederer/283007/

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

[stroke]

i have been asleep at the wheel on this Simpson's Paradox obviously. I now agree with Kyle too, it is a must read.

[bdole]

I am pretty down on the game of tennis. I don't feel any particular sadness for Roger personally but the game is going to suffer. Where will the inspiration come for anyone in the future to play the all court game? Answer...it probably won't. The modern paradigm being what it is has firmly established itself for the past 15 years or so and coaches and players that know and more importantly believe in this kind of play are nearly extinct.

Don, I'm in agreement with your general sentiment that an all-baseline ball bashing style of play is not the most entertaining tennis to watch. But it would seem Thiem read your earlier posts (sic) and showed some other dimensions to his game yesterday. Looking back on the Federer-Thiem highlights, Thiem served & volleyed a fair bit and generally found himself at the net quite frequently.

While a McEnroe v. Edberg contest may not be in our spectating future, I think there's hope yet for enjoyable professional tennis.

[klacr]

Thiem is the real deal. Semis of French on clay. Finals of Stuttgart this week. #7 in the world. He's still young. Still improving. Give him more time. The volleys will be there more tomorrow than they are today.

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

[gzhpcu]

Thiem beats his good friend Kohlschreiber. First grass tournament victory. Showed both power and touch.

[nickw]

Thiem is the real deal. Semis of French on clay. Finals of Stuttgart this week. #7 in the world. He's still young. Still improving. Give him more time. The volleys will be there more tomorrow than they are today.

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

Absolutely the real deal, the only question mark was faster surfaces, and look what he's done this week, and the caliber and variety of players he has beaten. Compare to last year's grass season, massive improvement.

[lobndropshot]

I didn't get to see him play this week. How was his court position? That was the biggest weakness I saw in his game in Australia. Although his strong enough to hit through it.