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My secretary passed this to me today. It was in my mailbox.
John Yandell
The Next Great Champion
Will it be Grigor Dimitrov? Milos Raonic? How about Marin Cilic now that he was won the U.S. Open? Or maybe Kei Niskakori? The Aussie Open is in full swing, so maybe we are gonna see it happen: the emergence of the next dominant men’s player.
All those guys have the potential to win Grand Slam titles. Cilic did, obviously, and so for that matter did Juan Martin Del Potro. And maybe they will win, or win more.
But what about the next guy who can win or 3 or 5 or 7 or 14 Grand Slams titles, if such a thing is even still possible? Unlikely it’s any of these players, as great as they all obviously are. Very likely it’s someone not currently in the Top 20.
Maybe it’s someone like Nick Kyrgios, who is ranked about 50, but got a lot of attention for his huge game and knocking Rafael Nadal out of Wimbledon last year. Or maybe the Austrian Dominic Thiem, who at 40 on the computer is actually ranked higher than Kyrgios.
When he beat Stan Wawrinka at Madrid last year, he became the first 20 year old to beat a top 3 player since Del Potro beat Nadal and Federer. Personally I would love to see it with all the talk about the supposed death of the one-handed backhand. If you haven’t seen how gorgeous Thiem’s one-hander really is you can check it out on Tennisplayer. (Click here)
But why none of the other guys who have hovered near the top? That hasn’t been the pattern in the history of pro tennis. Players don’t have some success, get near the top for a few years, and then suddenly rise to dominance. And if Thiem and Kyrgios don’t move radically upward soon, it won’t be them either.
Players like Dimitrov and Raonic or even Cilic have been losing to players like Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Andy Murray for a few years. That isn’t the experience that leads to the mentality of a dominant champion.
The next multiple Slam champion, when he gets close to the top, is going to go all the way to the top. It might be after the Big 4 retires—or not. It might follow some great results and then a few loses to players still above him. But not for long.
Remember Jo Willie Tsonga’s electric run in the Australian? Or how about Marcos Baghdatis? They never were able to back up the promise of their first big success.
The players who are going to stay on top get there fast. They may not win the Open at 19 like Pete Sampras, but once they get the first title, they are going to be right there challenging and winning more in the near future.
Think back to Borg, McEnroe. It was electrifyingly, to see them come out of nowhere convinced they were the best. Federer was in his early 20s but once he started winning, we know the story, and it was the same for Nadal who started even younger—remember, he won the first French he entered. Even Andy Murray and Ivan Lendl were both 4 time Slam final losers and clearly a level ahead of other contenders when they made the final breakthrough.
So are you going to see the next big name in the Australian in 2015? You might. But probably only if you are watching the early rounds closely—unless of course this is the event that begins the skyrocket.
John Yandell
The Next Great Champion
Will it be Grigor Dimitrov? Milos Raonic? How about Marin Cilic now that he was won the U.S. Open? Or maybe Kei Niskakori? The Aussie Open is in full swing, so maybe we are gonna see it happen: the emergence of the next dominant men’s player.
All those guys have the potential to win Grand Slam titles. Cilic did, obviously, and so for that matter did Juan Martin Del Potro. And maybe they will win, or win more.
But what about the next guy who can win or 3 or 5 or 7 or 14 Grand Slams titles, if such a thing is even still possible? Unlikely it’s any of these players, as great as they all obviously are. Very likely it’s someone not currently in the Top 20.
Maybe it’s someone like Nick Kyrgios, who is ranked about 50, but got a lot of attention for his huge game and knocking Rafael Nadal out of Wimbledon last year. Or maybe the Austrian Dominic Thiem, who at 40 on the computer is actually ranked higher than Kyrgios.
When he beat Stan Wawrinka at Madrid last year, he became the first 20 year old to beat a top 3 player since Del Potro beat Nadal and Federer. Personally I would love to see it with all the talk about the supposed death of the one-handed backhand. If you haven’t seen how gorgeous Thiem’s one-hander really is you can check it out on Tennisplayer. (Click here)
But why none of the other guys who have hovered near the top? That hasn’t been the pattern in the history of pro tennis. Players don’t have some success, get near the top for a few years, and then suddenly rise to dominance. And if Thiem and Kyrgios don’t move radically upward soon, it won’t be them either.
Players like Dimitrov and Raonic or even Cilic have been losing to players like Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Andy Murray for a few years. That isn’t the experience that leads to the mentality of a dominant champion.
The next multiple Slam champion, when he gets close to the top, is going to go all the way to the top. It might be after the Big 4 retires—or not. It might follow some great results and then a few loses to players still above him. But not for long.
Remember Jo Willie Tsonga’s electric run in the Australian? Or how about Marcos Baghdatis? They never were able to back up the promise of their first big success.
The players who are going to stay on top get there fast. They may not win the Open at 19 like Pete Sampras, but once they get the first title, they are going to be right there challenging and winning more in the near future.
Think back to Borg, McEnroe. It was electrifyingly, to see them come out of nowhere convinced they were the best. Federer was in his early 20s but once he started winning, we know the story, and it was the same for Nadal who started even younger—remember, he won the first French he entered. Even Andy Murray and Ivan Lendl were both 4 time Slam final losers and clearly a level ahead of other contenders when they made the final breakthrough.
So are you going to see the next big name in the Australian in 2015? You might. But probably only if you are watching the early rounds closely—unless of course this is the event that begins the skyrocket.
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