2014 U. S. Open Championships...New York, New York

[stotty]

Federer...still feeling the effects

stroke...what did you think of Roger's condition to play the match against Cilic emotionally as well as physically?

....I really don't think Fed's emotional or physical state was an issue or problem. I watched the entire match and I thought he was fully engaged emotionally. I did notice that McEnroe, one of my favorite commentators(I really dislike Mary Carillo) did point out that Roger looked slower to him(and of course he brought up the long Monfils match as a possible reason). I really did not see that. Certainly, Roger is not as fast, cannot cover the court as well as he did 5 years ago, but we all know that. I just did not see fatigue as an issue.

Federer seemed flat and didn't quite have the legs for it. One of the things that most concerned me (and I pointed it out in a previous post) was that it would only take one gruelling five setter to put the spanner in the works. It wasn't that he was visibly completely spent from the Monfils match...more just still feeling the effects. At 33 recovery just has to be an issue.

I don't quite see it like Doug, that when Federer is bad he is really bad. I think his basic game alters little and he's been incredibly consistent at getting results over the years. He's never been an easy man to beat, put away...hit the final ball against. Was it 22 consecutive grand slam semis he got to? Not bad? Anyone else done that?

No, Federer couldn't pull anything out of the bag because he was a little drained still...a tad slower.

This takes nothing away from Cilic who played the game of his life and in all probability would have won anyway. There is simply no accounting for a man having a day like that.

[stroke]

stroke...what did you think of Roger's condition to play the match against Cilic emotionally as well as physically?

As I am sure you know, I am a big fan or Fed's game. I picked him to win Wimbledon this year and I thought he would win this US Open. His chances of picking up one more major are certainly diminishing. I still think he can get one more. That being said, I really don't think Fed's emotional or physical state was an issue or problem. I watched the entire match and I thought he was fully engaged emotionally. I did notice that McEnroe, one of my favorite commentators(I really dislike Mary Carillo) did point out that Roger looked slower to him(and of course he brought up the long Monfils match as a possible reason). I really did not see that. Certainly, Roger is not as fast, cannot cover the court as well as he did 5 years ago, but we all know that. I just did not see fatigue as an issue. I saw Cilic with a bigger serve and out hitting Roger from the baseline. Cilic's forehand looked to me like a carbon copy type 3 forehand of Fed's, and taking the ball on so early with it, just like Fed. I really like what Geoff pointed out. His forehand rally ball looks like he is just warming up, so relaxed and clearly so much power to spare. And when he does add that little extra to it, it just expodes. To me, I have not seen a player take it to Fed from the baseline like that, except Nadal on clay. All credit to Cilic.

[don_budge]

Roger's fitness...stroke?

I'm not seeing any issues for Roger fatigue wise vs Cilic. Roger was very impressive vs Monfils. He withstood Monfil's very best, took that 3rd set, and Monfil's, despite his great 4 sets of play, did not fight his best in the 5th. For Monfil's is to ever take that next step, he just can't go away like that. Kei has the game, I just got a feeling his fitness or injuries will be a factor today vs Novak. I would be very surprised if Roger does not advance to the finals.

stroke...what did you think of Roger's condition to play the match against Cilic emotionally as well as physically?

[don_budge]

The Semi's of the 2014 U. S. Open Champioinships...part 2

[10] Kei Nishikori (JPN) d. [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) 64 16 76(4) 63

It wasn't much of a tennis match. Certainly not U. S. Open Championship Semifinal level of play. It amuses me that everybody will make much of this rather sad level of play. I know it was hot...but I have watched the classic players of the past play without going to a towel between every single point...dramatically agonizing to the crowd and every other twit that is watching exaggerating their heated condition. Ice towels on demand and the ball boys doing more actual running that the players in fetching them their cursed towels.

It looked to me that Nishikori was going to quit first in the second set when he started "feigning" injury and limping around on his injured foot. Kicking on it...testing it. For the crowd to understand that he had an injury...for his opponent to fully sympathize that he was hurting. Lots of drama. Sure. Drama Queen variety.

Mats Wilander surely agreed with me. He was just about at a loss of words trying to explain the fact that Novak Djokovic did not contest the match and virtually caved in to the elements. Oh...I can just hear it now. How tough the modern game is. How much tougher the modern day player is. What? They didn't have hot weather back in the 60's and 70's? Amazing isn't it? Look at those old classic U. S. Open Championship finals that I posted last month. Those players never once asked a ball boy to do anything other than bounce them a ball.

Kei Nishikori...a modern day tennis player. Forehand. Two handed backhand. Mediocre serve. Finalist to the 2014 U. S. Open Championships. Ok...I'm on board now.

[14] Marin Cilic (CRO) vs. [2] Roger Federer (SUI) 63 64 64

Player B hit the ball much harder than Player A. Player B won. No surprise...not really. It was "The Sleeper" who had the quick drop right from the beginning. Roger never stood a chance. There really isn't much to say about the match except to sort of be in awe about the performance of Marin Cilic throughout this tournament. He defeated Gilles Simon whom he had never beaten before in four tries in spite of pushing him to the brink on all four occasions. Five's a charm. He hammered Tomas Berdych into total submission which is no easy task. Straight sets in the quarters.

Nobody had to tell Roger "this ain't your night kid" because he knew it from the start. His legs weren't in it having been taken away from him 48 hours by the lunatic effort against Gael Monfils...having to come from two sets down derailed his plans for Marin Cilic. He knew in advance that he wouldn't have the energy to get his act to the net...he announced it. He may have even been injured...we may never know. That wasn't a hundred percent Roger Federer out there Saturday. But you see...he is the last remaining link to the real game. He may play with a bigger racquet now...he was the very last to cave completely in to the modern game. But his heart is still in it.

He is in the end...A CLASSIC. Classic tennis players didn't announce or make big deals of the injuries before matches were played as if to declare their excuses up front just in case they lost. No...they preferred to keep their cards close to their chests and try to make do with what they were dealt. Sometimes an injury could be overcome...best to keep it to yourself and not let it become a topic of conversation.

The match with Monfils exhausted Roger more than physically. Emotionally he was drained. His last gasp was the scream at the end of the Monfils match. That is what he needed most were some primal emotions to fall back on when everything else was failing. He's a husband and a father of four now and a lot of his emotions are already spoken for before he goes out on the court. With all of his money he cannot afford to be the selfish bastard that he needs to be at moments like this. During the Monfils match it looked to me that he wanted to scream for the first four sets until he had Monfils by the scruff of the neck and even then he couldn't relax until he had him securely in the barn. During the post match interview there was something decidedly different about Federer...he looked as if he had aged. I saw the beginning of an old man. As an athlete his star is falling.

He had nothing to combat "The Sleeper" with. Nothing substantial. All that he had was his reputation and his past laurels which in all probability were like a yoke around his neck when he was in the thick of it. Weighing him down. The weight was collecting in his legs and his heart. He was spent. There was nothing to give. He has given it all.

But that was some very impressive serving by Cilic. He was pounding the backhand down the tee in the deuce court. He was pounding the tee in the ad court. He was pounding at all of his targets the whole match. Whenever Federer managed to return a serve Cilic was there to mop up the remains. Federer's only hope was to engage him in longer points but without legs and a heart that may not have been in it...it's a losing battle. As for Roger's own serve...it had disappeared in the Monfil's match and it never returned. You have to have your legs under you to serve in commanding fashion.

As for the final...the way that I see it is that Marin Cilic has been a perfect "Sleeper" in the draw. Not a lot was expected at a number of points in the tournament but now everyone is awake to his possibilities. My hope for him is that he doesn't actually "wake up" himself. He is playing as if in a dream. He is frightfully in "the zone". When you are in the zone it isn't so much as thinking your way through things it is only about repeating the ritual...the mantra. Listening to the voice inside your head that is only humming a monosyllable noise. The dude is on auto pilot and there is simply no reason to question why he is where he is. He only has to believe that he is where he should be and the rest will take care of itself. That is how it works in "the zone". No questions...no second opinions. If I were him I would skip all of the interviews...better to sleep walk through the whole deal. I would particularly avoid Barbara Schett...the numbskull.




[don_budge]

The Semi's of the 2014 U. S. Open Champioinships...part 1

[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs. [10] Kei Nishikori (JPN)
[2] Roger Federer (SUI) vs.[14] Marin Cilic (CRO)

Every picture tells a story...and so does every draw sheet.

Novak Djokovic (1)...Diego Schwartzman, Paul-Henri Mathieu, Sam Querry, Phillipp Kohlschreiber (22), Andy Murray (8).

Kei Nishikori (10)...Wayne Odesnik, Pablo Andujar, Leonardo Mayer (23), Milos Raonic (5), Stanislas Wawrinka (3).

Marin Cilic (14)...Marcos Baghdatis, Illya Marchenko, Kevin Anderson (18), Gilles Simon (26), Tomas Berdych (6).

Roger Federer (2)...Marinko Jatosevic, Sam Groth, Marcel Granollers, Roberto Bautista Agut (17), Gael Monfils (20).


Novak Djokovic versus Kei Nishikori...You see the paths...their respective paths. The path might just effect the outcome in this case. These two have split two matches between them so it isn't out of the realm of possibilities for Nishikori to defeat Djokovic. Not at all. He has survived two titanic struggles with two titanic opponents. Milos Raonic and Stan Wawrinka have both tasted the Samurai's Sword and were both cut down in five sets. They found out that the longer it goes on...the worse their chance are of making it out on top. But surely that cannot be the case with Djokovic...who has spent approximately three less hours on the court than Nishikori. Kei comes also with the reputation of getting injured as he did earlier in the year when he had to quit in the finals of a tournament with the Absent One. That was in Madrid in May.

The Samurai Kid has come a long ways to the semifinals this September afternoon. He'll give it all...but how much is all after the two five setters in a row? Novak had a cake walk in comparison. He's got a Slam under his belt this year at Wimbledon. He tanked in the early rounds of the hard court circuit leading up to the U. S. Open. All calculated by the way. Calculated to give him the best shot at a second Slam title to go along with a second place finish at the French. Novak is in position and he is poised to pound a winner into next week today. Nishikori could be cat food depending upon how Novak comes out and plays it. At this point he is all business because he is focused on winning the whole thing...it is in his calculations. He doesn't see any point in coming out today and wasting any time or energy. All business.

Roger Federer versus Marin Cilic...Roger is 5-0 head to head against Marin. He is aiming to make it six and he doesn't want to screw around doing it. He can ill afford to take all night to send Marin home and he would like it if Marin very kindly would cooperate. After the epic against Gael Monfils 48 hours ago there might still be a lingering question about his condition. He pretty much used it all up...all of that nervous energy from the pressure that Monfils put on him in front of a packed Arthur Ashe stadium. How much can he have left? Marin wasn't very shy about bullying Berdych back to Prague and from all indications he feels as if he belongs where he is. All messages to be heeded by the Federer camp. I have been calling Marin Cilic "The Sleeper" in the draw all along and here he is. Poised to take on Roger Federer for all of the marbles with Roger quite possibly on shaky legs.

There is a first time for everything you know. Marin isn't taking those five previous beatings lightly. He is saying to himself...nobody beats me six in a row. An expression made famous by Vitas Gerulaitis after beating Bjorn Borg for the first time after 15 tries...or so. So Roger will not be able to rest solely on past results here...in fact he has to guard about relying on them at all. This is a first time match up in a sense and he has to treat it as such. In fact...he would do well to put himself in Cilic's shoes and try to think of himself as the underdog in a sense. He has to play with a sense of abandon and wanton urgency. Anything less is going to be construed as indecisive to Cilic and he is only looking for an invitation to steal the crown...from the Once and Future King.

So it is anybody's match in a sense. Sure you can say that Roger is up 5-0 head to head. But their last confrontation was in Toronto where he just barely emerged the victor. But I believe in miracles...I always will to my last dying day. Somehow I think that justice will be done...a naive thought I rationally know. So I believe that Roger can beat him...whether or not that he does...one never knows about the future. But seeing as this tournament is all about the racquet of Roger Federer...or the sword of King Arthur...he has to win to give the truth a chance. As Merlin said..."every time you tell a lie you destroy a little piece of the world". Or as Scarface said..."I always tell the truth, even when I lie". It's anybody's match...but I am a believer. Go figure.

At this point it is all about pressure. Tilden writes about maintaining pressure on your opponent. Monfils did a splendid job of this against Federer and Roger was lucky to be playing today. We have Nishikori and Cilic up against a couple of legends of the sport of modern tennis and their unenviable task is to see if they can maintain pressure on them. The one intangible here is the crowd. Mere mortals don't know that kind of pressure...but Roger and Novak certainly do. They know how to make that work for them and the others are sort of leery of it working against them. If they can manage those doubts then they stand a much better chance of emerging today. It's a huge intangible...and it might just bolster Roger's legs when he needs it most.

[10] Kei Nishikori (JPN) d. [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) 64 16 76(4) 63

It wasn't much of a tennis match. Certainly not U. S. Open Championship Semifinal level of play. It amuses me that everybody will make much of this rather sad level of play. I know it was hot...but I have watched the classic players of the past play without going to a towel between every single point...dramatically agonizing to the crowd and every other twit that is watching exaggerating their heated condition. Ice towels on demand and the ball boys doing more actual running that the players in fetching them their cursed towels.

It looked to me that Nishikori was going to quit first in the second set when he started "feigning" injury and limping around on his injured foot. Kicking on it...testing it. For the crowd to understand that he had an injury...for his opponent to fully sympathize that he was hurting. Lots of drama. Sure. Drama Queen variety.

Mats Wilander surely agreed with me. He was just about at a loss of words trying to explain the fact that Novak Djokovic did not contest the match and virtually caved in to the elements. Oh...I can just hear it now. How tough the modern game is. How much tougher the modern day player is. What? They didn't have hot weather back in the 60's and 70's? Amazing isn't it? Look at those old classic U. S. Open Championship finals that I posted last month. Those players never once asked a ball boy to do anything other than bounce them a ball.

Kei Nishikori...a modern day tennis player. Forehand. Two handed backhand. Mediocre serve. Finalist to the 2014 U. S. Open Championships. Ok...I'm on board now.

[don_budge]

Marin Cilic...ATP's pick

The ATP website has Marin Cilic winning the 2014 U. S. Open Men's Championships. All they need is a score and the stats. Do they know something we don't? It wouldn't surprise me.

Was it only me or did Djokovic look as if he didn't show up to win?

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=N552&oId=C977

[stotty]

Nishikori's serve

Can the coaches on the forum take a look at Nishikori's serve in the final. His pronation looks funny. I can't quite work out what's going on but it doesn't look right. It seems like he can't get the heavy spins. His serve overall looks slightly out of kilter...not quite right.

Thoughts....

[bottle]

Thiem

However, I'm guessing the brightest of the one-handers won't be upheld by Grigor but possibly surpassed by Dominic Thiem. Got to watch Dominic at Aussie and US Opens (2 matches) and very impressed. Upclose, he's better than Dimitrov who plays with flare but can be loose and had some minor technical glitches. Dominic has more determination than Grigor. If Dominic can muscle up, he's bound to win a major in 2-3 years. He's playing like #20-30 and just turned 21 years old. He has only 1 top 10 win over Stanimal but went 3 sets with Murray and Tsonga. In fact, only Berdych and Nadal are the two top 10 players who beat Thiem in straight sets. No one else. Which is good news for him. That's 1-4 record with 2 loses going the distance although Nadal and Berdych loss were not impressive. He has the bear twins working with him, Bresnik and Resnik. The Thiem team (there is a me and an I in Thiem). They are likely to turn Dominic from a gentleman Tim Henman look alike into half-beast, half-stanimal.

Best,
Doug

Love these insights on Thiem.

[stotty]

Cilic does well against big guys who hit big. He has a good record against Berdych and Anderson. Hence, he had a great draw. Then he also faced Gilles, someone who's never done really well at majors (1 QF) and the fading genius. He doesn't do as well against runners, counterpunchers or all-court players which makes you wonder about Federer. According to IBM stats, Federer came to the net only 23 times against Cilic. Too little considering Marin's style. And Federer certainly doesn't help with his low stats on the serve return. When he's bad, he's bad. Federer only had 2 break points against Marin and converted one.

Best,
Doug

I think Kei is the real deal and could well take Murray's spot in the top four. We may have seen the best of Murray who could well fade away.

Federer had the great draw, not Cilic. Cilic had a tricky draw. I understand he likes to play the big hitter...but he still has to win them. Federer played no one of any consequence and had the draw of his life. It couldn't have been easier.

Cilic will have to pay like that again to beat Kei Nishikori. Kei is relentless and doesn't go away.

At least we will have a different final. I don't know who to back or support. I think I'll go for Kei...as I think he will be more than a one hit wonder. Plus, I like him.

[DougEng]

Year of Parity and Rise of the Young Guns

Sorry, been so busy with meetings in NYC and back. But met up with Johnny Y and Kyle. Got plenty of the Open and working on an interesting project (I can't say what yet for now).

Sorry, Kyle about Big Berd. I don't think he's likely to win a major. Had a couple discussions with Jeff Salzenstein, back and forth on who is likely to splash. As much as I liked Dimitrov, he's still 1-2 years from winning a major.
As mentioned a few times, I felt Nishikori and Raonic were closer. And with Stanimal winning the Aussie this year, it showed that the older players and the big four fell off a bit and the younger players are emerging.

Of the younger generation, although Dimitrov is the most promising, he's more likely to fall the way of an Andy Murray. I think 2-3 majors but he will still struggle against his generation (Kei, Milos, etc). I said to Jeff that Kei and Milos are more likely to win a major in the next 18 months than Dimitrov.

However, I'm guessing the brightest of the one-handers won't be upheld by Grigor but possibly surpassed by Dominic Thiem. Got to watch Dominic at Aussie and US Opens (2 matches) and very impressed. Upclose, he's better than Dimitrov who plays with flare but can be loose and had some minor technical glitches. Dominic has more determination than Grigor. If Dominic can muscle up, he's bound to win a major in 2-3 years. He's playing like #20-30 and just turned 21 years old. He has only 1 top 10 win over Stanimal but went 3 sets with Murray and Tsonga. In fact, only Berdych and Nadal are the two top 10 players who beat Thiem in straight sets. No one else. Which is good news for him. That's 1-4 record with 2 loses going the distance although Nadal and Berdych loss were not impressive.
He has the bear twins working with him, Bresnik and Resnik. The Thiem team (there is a me and an I in Thiem). They are likely to turn Dominic from a gentleman Tim Henman look alike into half-beast, half-stanimal.

Of course, Nick Kyrgios will be a future champion…let's see what is in store for him.

It couldn't fall any better for Marin Cilic. This may be his best shot at winning a major, even with Goran in the corner, it will be hard for him to reproduce as I don't think he really has the game, but he's on fire. Federer struggled against Monfils, and although I didn't see his play against Cilic, I imagine, Fed struggled too although the stats says it was a quality match I doubt Federer was at his best. We all knew none of the big four, except Federer were playing that well coming up to the open.

Marin is really the big surprise, not Kei.
It's expected Kei can do well.
Marin had never beaten Gilles Simon and lost to him earlier this year in Australian in 5 sets. He won. The same for Roger Federer and Marin won. He was 0-9 against the two.

Cilic does well against big guys who hit big. He has a good record against Berdych and Anderson. Hence, he had a great draw. Then he also faced Gilles, someone who's never done really well at majors (1 QF) and the fading genius. He doesn't do as well against runners, counterpunchers or all-court players which makes you wonder about Federer. According to IBM stats, Federer came to the net only 23 times against Cilic. Too little considering Marin's style. And Federer certainly doesn't help with his low stats on the serve return. When he's bad, he's bad. Federer only had 2 break points against Marin and converted one.

Kei didn't get many break points against Novak or Stan. Actually a total of only 15. That's surprising as he won.

Kei conquered 2 of the 3 major winners. Perhaps if Stan beat him, maybe Stan might be looking in at his second major of the year. Not.

Marin conquered his personal nemesis and stopped two streaks. The question, is…can he do it again? He's 2-5 vs Nishikori and as Federer says, the record doesn't count.

This year the majors go through Djokovic. I think Kei is 4 tight sets or even 5.
Kei will have more break points in this match than his last two.

Best,
Doug

[klacr]

Cilic said that was the best performance of his life. I'd have to agree. That was dominating.

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

[stotty]

Not since Safin knocked Sampras's block of in 2000 have I ever seen anything like that...outstanding, simply outstanding.

[stotty]

3-2 to Cilic. He shows no signs of ebbing away either. He's hugging the baseline and not budging...taking the ball so early. Federer will have to muster some genius soon or that will be it. Cilic has been reading Federer like a book.

[stotty]

Cilic is hitting a lot more winners than Fed and looks great so far. Has anyone else noticed how Cilic's forehand looks a lot like Fed's, and he is able to take the ball very early with it, just like Fed.

Hadn't noticed Cilic's forehand. Will take a look.

5-3 Cilic...

Surely Cilic cannot keep this up. He's playing perfectly. This is just how to play Federer...to perfection. Federer needs Cilic's level to drop so he can get a foothold...interesting...culmination point...5-4 to Cilic...can he nail a 2 sets to love lead?

[stroke]

Cilic is hitting a lot more winners than Fed and looks great so far. Has anyone else noticed how Cilic's forehand looks a lot like Fed's, and he is able to take the ball very early with it, just like Fed.