2014 Australian Open Championship...Melbourne, Austalia

[don_budge]

How's it going Andy?

I'm not able to watch right now...but how's it feeling Andy? Are you comfortable now? I'm only guessing...not peeking. But I'm guessing...not!

[klacr]

Watching the Fed-Murray match.

Fed looking real solid. Murray looking listless. Federer is up two sets to love. Fed is using great variety on the backhand and using it to set up the forehand. Being aggressive. Great job coming to the net on smart approaches and first volleys

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

[don_budge]

The book is...

Watching the Fed-Murray match.

Fed looking real solid. Murray looking listless. Federer is up two sets to love. Fed is using great variety on the backhand and using it to set up the forehand. Being aggressive. Great job coming to the net on smart approaches and first volleys

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

Tilden.

[stotty]

2 sets to 1...don_budge must be on a heap on the floor right now. The match was Federer's for the taking.

I still feel the game is in Federer's hands, not Murray's. He needs to catch Murray coming off a high at the start of set four.

I am so impressed with Federer'e movement and defensive play...on top of his brilliant attack.

[stotty]

Great match by Federer. He reverted back to type in the end after a quite brilliant start seizing the net so often. He cannot afford to revert back against Nadal. He will have to carry out the plan from start to finish.

Interesting that Federer was not immune to sneak attacks when pulled wide on his sliced backhand. Murray could have done that more often.

Federer moved exceptionally well...so, so well.

[tennis_chiro]

Roger Federer 3.0

at 2-3 in the third set, Mats Wilander commented on EuroSport on Federer's aggressiveness forcing Murray to start going forward himself: "…and suddenly we are looking at a completely different style of tennis, … and how healthy would that be?"

However, in anticipating a change in style by the top players, Mats is overlooking the fact that hardly anyone has the necessary skills to execute these tactics. Murray is one of the few top players who has adequate front court skills to go forward effectively. If Federer rediscovers his serve and volley skills, his earlier playing habits as a teenager and young pro will give him a head start to be able to showcase those skills at an elite level and approach the craftsmanship that Edberg routinely demonstrated.

To be able to execute the kind of aggression Federer was using, a number of things are necessary. First of all, you must have the weapons to create opportunities. On top of that, to do it on your opponent's service games, you are going to need defensive skills that can adequately neutralize your opponent's weapons. There are a number of players that have those skills.

Next, you are going to need the ability to recognize when you have created one of these opportunities as well as the speed and transition skills to actually take advantage of it. There are a lot less players, even among the best in the world, who actually have these skills anymore.

Finally, after all that, this new aggressive player needs the simple comfort level with his position at the net so that he can react instinctively to the passing shot he must now intercept and dispatch accurately and crisply to its final resting place. This is much more than simple volleying skills, these are instinctive reactions. It is almost impossible to learn those reactions after about age 16. They have to be built into the player as he develops. Otherwise, we end up with otherwise miraculously coordinated world-class athletes actually looking terribly clumsy on the tennis court (Think Agassi, Roddick or today, Djokovic).

And the final necessary piece is commitment; without commitment to this tactic, you will never get the necessary reps and experience to develop any proficiency. The second time an established player makes a clumsy volley error or gets fooled and moves the wrong way on a passing shot, he is going to want to abandon the tactic. And it is going to take a lot more than a couple of uncomfortable points before he develops any real comfort or proficiency with the tactic. That's part of the reason it is so important to develop this tactical skill early in the development of a player, while he is still in his mid-teen years, at the latest.

Even in the match tonight, Roger was firing on all cylinders and at the end of the third set, he got just a little tentative and his movement toward the net became significantly reduced. First, it was because Murray was taking the opportunity away from him whenever he could, but then Roger became just a little tentative and he paid a bit of a price for that conservative approach. It worked out eventually, but there were a lot of break points he could not convert because he was unable to make the same moves he was making early in the match. Perhaps he recognized a little shortcoming in Andy's movement and decided to take the conservative approach, but he wasn't using the same devil-may-care, swashbuckling approach that characterized his play the first two and a half sets.

Nevertheless, it was great fun to see both Murray and Federer trying to work their way forward whenever possible at the beginning of the third set. I don't think we've seen this kind of play from both players in quarterfinals or later of a grand slam in almost 10 years. Unfortunately, for the reasons I outlined above, we are not going to see it very often in the near future either. But we might see it from Federer again; hopefully in two days against Nadal. Djokovic is smart to bring Becker in to his camp to help him improve in this dimension; but it wasn't smart to relegate Vajda and fail to recognize it would take months of work and many matches in practice as well as tournament play before he could afford to risk employing the tactic as a major strategy in his campaign to win any major. Federer is rediscovering a former self with Edberg; for almost all of the rest, it means creating a whole new alter ego almost from scratch. Of all the current and former top ten players, the French (Tsonga, Gasquet and Monfils especially) are probably the best equipped to incorporate this kind of play into their playbook. Most of the big guys are simply too slow; I think Janowicz could do it, but he has a lot of other problems first. Wawrinka did win a gold medal in doubles. But even a relatively young player like Dimitrov is unlikely to put up with the beating he has to take to develop the necessary reactions and comfort with that position at the net as someone tries to pass him.

I hope I'm wrong, but it's going to take a lot more than a little faster courts and tighter knitted nap on the balls to bring back serve and volley tennis, even at the levels Federer was employing tonight. That's a small fraction of the number of trips Rafter or even Sampras made to the net; forget about comparisons to the serve and volleyers of the 60's and 70's who came up on almost every second serve, at least on hard courts and grass. But it could be a great opportunity for Roger and a key component to success for the reincarnated Roger Federer 3.0. Again, I certainly hope so. It is great fun to watch!

don

[klacr]

Masterclass by Federer.

Bit of a slip up in that 3rd set, but like all great champions Federer believed in his game and recovered to right the ship in the 4th set. Some will say Murray's back is still not 100% and this was the first test for it. That may be true. But losing the first two sets to Roger is what truly did Andy in. Huge mountain to climb against an in-form, aggressive and confident Roger.

Nadal-Federer and Berdych-Wawrinka are your semifinalists.

For Nadal, if he happens to pull off this Aussie Open title, he will become only the 3rd man to have won all grand slams at least twice. The other two? Rodney Laver and Roy Emerson. Pretty good company.

For Fed, if he was able to get past Nadal and win the finals, then wow! Just wow! The power of the tennis world would make a seismic shift.

For Wawrinka, well, he's gotta get past a confident Berdych and not that he wouldn't be able to but the mountain is big. Would be an epic run for the Stanimal.

For Berdych, No doubt he has the firepower to beat anyone. The question is can he produce and execute it match after match? Hoping Berdych does something amazing. I really really do.

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

[stotty]

Nadal's left hand looks a right mess with a huge blister bleeding like a gaping wound. That's got to help Roger's cause I at least a little bit. I didn't see Nadal/Dimitrov but apparently Nadal was struggling to serve with that blister.

[don_budge]

The Dog and Pony Show...and the 2014 Australian Open

Yesterday morning I was coming in from the stable after letting the horses out and feeding the fat barn cat named Rosa. It was a beautiful winter day here in Sweden...everyday is beautiful out in the country with so few people around. It’s not that I don’t like people it’s just that I feel a whole lot better when they aren’t around...a line from a movie called “Barfly” with Mickey Rourke. But anyways...strolling leisurely out in the field and into the forest was a moose cow and two almost full grown calves. The sight filled my heart with love...love of life. Love of nature. The natural order of things.

In tennis things somehow have gotten all convoluted and the natural order of things has been dramatically and drastically interfered with by none other than the genius of the planet...the genius of man. With each invention comes a curse...bottle quoted someone as saying and we have only to witness our favorite game and pastime to realize that indeed tennis is a metaphor for life. But only if you think like a poet...I suppose. A dreamer. To me...it speaks of an arrogance. The arrogance of mankind. As if somehow we reinvented the game to lead us to believe that somehow we are better than...better than those of the past. Like life nowadays...ask any teenager what life would life be like without a smart phone. They are pretty damn sure of themselves...that would be no life at all. They must think that the people of the past are really stupid. More metaphor...just food for thought.

The 2014 Australian Open Championships gives us all the evidence we need to see how easy it is to alter the natural order of things...just monkeying around with the courts a bit and substituting some new pills (the balls) and everything went topsy turvy. The story is an epic and if I had the time and the writing skills I would love to attempt to capture it...with all of the theme and every single nuance within it. But just look at the remaining players in the draws...for once even consider the woman as well. Something very unusual happened down in Melbourne which always leads me to the question...why?

Yesterday was like a dream to me...from the moment I saw the moose cow and her two offspring until I went to bed...nearly exhausted from following the tournament and doing my duties as a teacher of tennis to my students. I love a day that I fall asleep like the dead because I am so tired from pursuing the things that I love. Yesterday was such a day. It started quite early for me and because of the Roger Federer match there was another piece of business that went somewhat unnoticed. I was up watching that one too. Grigor Dimitrov vs. Rafael Nadal.

Looking back I am so happy that klacr...aka Kyle...started the thread about the Stockholm Open that was won by young Grigor, whom I have nicknamed “Kid Gallivant” because of his passion for life as well as tennis. He’s got an eye on the ladies...which is great as long as it doesn’t distract you and take your eye off of the ball. It looks to me that Grigor has his eyes squarely on the ball and yesterday he came from just a couple of points of sending his royal ass holiness to an early exit. I say that in jest...sort of. This guy is a real piece of work as are 99.99 percent of the professional athletes of modern sports are...in my humble opinion. As some like to say. But not me...I say it only in jest. I don't pretend to be humble when discussing tennis. Not in todays politically correct climate. I never did learn to "pony up".

The Stockholm Open thread gave us a chance to keep an eye on young Grigor and klacr followed up with a thread devoted strictly to Dimitrov that lead some of us to get to know him a bit better. At least about his tennis game. He has long suffered the complimentary nickname of “Baby Fed” because of his obvious modeling his tennis game after the Swiss Maesto but he has blossomed into his own person...his own player. I thought that he just might take out the griping and bitchy Nadal and he almost did. He was so close that he was crying afterwards...crying mostly from nerve and from the realization that he is that close to breaking into the top echelon of current tennis players. It would be enough to make any young man from Bulgaria cry. Life historically hasn’t been a walk in the park for Eastern Europeans. It's no trip to the beach. Like Stanislas Wawrinka...Grigor Dimitrov is climbing up the food chain and Nadal nearly became his claim to fame. But it is only the beginning for our gallant and dashing young man from Bulgaria. No more Mr. Sharapova either...he is his own man now. Let’s watch him grow...and conquer.

Which brings us to Roger Federer...and I am not going to say too much right now. Let me just say that the Tildenesque bit is all intertwined and it is only to connect the three dots as usual. The court, the racquet and the balls. There is the most logical of explanations. I will just wait and see how everything plays out. I expected him to “routine” Andy Murray...and he did. I expect him to take Nadal down...but that isn’t saying that he will. But he should have hired John McEnroe for this confrontation only. More than anyone in the world McEnroe could have managed a tactical game plan against Rafael Nadal on an apparently slightly faster than “normal” tennis court surface. John McEnroe solved the riddle of Björn Borg in the waning days of Classic Tennis and this matchup is only the same thing...but it is being played in the mirror. Instead of a left-handed artist of a player with all of the shots from A to Z against the classic mechanical right-handed player with the strong gripped forehand and two-handed backhand...we have the reverse.

Federer’s dismissal of Andy Murray was pretty much a routing match...as only a tough Grand Slam quarterfinal can be. He dismissed him outright in the first two sets riding the wave of “being in the zone” when he caught that wave he was riding throughout the match with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga clear through the third set...when he hiccuped. But that is all that it was as Mats Wilander at some point in an earlier commentary discussed. During the course of a great five set match there are going to be ebbs and flows. Federer ebbed just a bit...but he never lost that steely resolve as Murray did. Federer may have hiccuped but his confidence never waned.

Murray was back to whining and grimacing. Playing to psychology of feigning injury and messing with the opponents mind. John Newcombe, Rod Laver, Jimmy Connors and even Ivan Lendl must have been concealing their own grimaces. Such behavior was once deemed unworthy. Never show your injury to your opponent unnecessarily...acting in such a manner is unsportsmanlike. But unsportsmanlike is a relative term...what flies today drew yesterdays ire. His reaction to the ball that Roger barely scraped off of the pavement was rather typical...questioning Roger’s honesty right in front of the entire crowd. If there was one person in the crowd who was absolutely certain as to whether that ball was up or not up...it was Roger Federer. Rest assured if Roger had not gotten that ball...he would have called it on himself.

So all of the dramatics aside we are left with the tactics, the racquet, the quicker court surface and the balls. Trust me that this is the beginning of the story. The story is as deep as the ocean. But the crux of the matter lies in my dream paradigm of tennis. The book is Tilden and the model is Gonzalez with the Budge backhand. Hopman is the coach and FEDERER is living proof. Everything this week has actually gone according to script. The playing surface has been altered which in turn leveled the playing field. The quicker surface gives a slight favor to the more classic player with variety of shot, whereas the sand laden surface that causes the ball to behave as if it is bouncing on velcro gives the advantage to the western grips and the two handed backhand. This stuff is straight out of Tilden and I hardly need anyone to confirm this for me...this isn’t some dog and pony show for me. It amuses me that some beg Doug Eng to confirm what is right in front of their eyes...but don’t get me wrong about Doug either. As one forum participant has in the past. I have as much regard for his views as anyone else here in the conversation. But no more and no less. We must be all equals...seeing as we all put our pants on one leg at a time. As I said...I never did learn to "pony up". I don't think that you should either. But do as you will...I don't offer any advice in this regard.

Roger needs to slice the backhand. Pure and simple. He needs to slice Rosewellian style in order to make the ball lay down and skid on the slightly slicker surface with the quicker balls. Occasionally he should slice high and soft...to take the air of the ball. Then go back to hammering. Mix it up. Take your opponent out of his rhythm then reestablish your own. If he played Nadal correctly it would be as routine as it was for Murray and for Tsonga. Perhaps a bit tougher. Both Nishikori and Dimitrov experimented in bringing Nadal forwards with short angles and drop shots but neither were able to carry out the strategy to fruition. Power slicing deep into the corner of the Nadal backhand and short and angled to the Nadal forehand will have the same effect as Novak Djokovic’s flat two-handed backhand with even better results on the quicker surface. Nadal will have to work so much harder to run around his backhand. Federer actually won the fourth set against Murray with a rash of errors that were the result of some brilliant backhand slices. Murray started to spray forehands as he attempted to run around his backhand.

[don_budge]

The Dog and Pony Show...and the 2014 Australian Open (cont.)

Wow!!! What a tournament. What a wonderful thread. What a great post by the other don....tennis_chiro. That post alone is the basis of another chapter that will be the epic of this 2014 Australian Open. It’s not over yet and the best is yet to come. Something is different about this great championship over recent championships. It all begins with Nadal whining about the surface to his “friend” the tournament director. Let’s see how it ends. If there is any justice in the world it will end with Nadal leaving the court with his tail tucked between his shorts...come think of it he must have a tail. He is always digging around "down under" there. Oh well...he has his ideas. Like everyone else. Which is another reason I like that quote from “Barfly”.

By the way...that was the other don...Stotty. And it was very insightful. We expect no less. It would be unsportsmanlike for me to leave this uncorrected and take credit for his observation.

I thought don_budge's forecast prior to the tournament as to how Becker's appointment of as head coach over Vajda might unintentionally derail Djokovic was most insightful...and has turned out to be true...coupled, of course, with Stan's brilliant play. See below:

Quote:
I don't think there is anyone there who can impede Djokovic's inevitable progress to another Australian final. The one exception is Wawrinka, but I think Djokovic will be too prepared for him. The one thing that could work for Wawrinka is the influence of Becker. If Becker gets Djokovic to try something other than the formula that has been so successful with him, it could hamper Djokovic's performance and supply an opening for Wawrinka. I just think it is a mistake to subjugate Vajda's judgement and suggestions to those of Becker. If this change is not absolutely seamless, it could create a seed of doubt in Nole's mind; that seed of doubt can be deadly at this level. But short of something like that happening, I can't see anyone derailing the Djokovic Express short of the final meeting with Nadal whom I still see as the favorite on the other side.

More to come. Possibly an all-Swiss final...how healthy would that be? I need a short rest.

[tennis_chiro]

...
Roger needs to slice the backhand. Pure and simple. He needs to slice Rosewellian style in order to make the ball lay down and skid on the slightly slicker surface with the quicker balls. Occasionally he should slice high and soft...to take the air of the ball. ...

I don't think Roger hits nearly enough of the Rosewallian slices, if any at all. I'd also really like to see him hit a lot more of those.

don

[tennis_chiro]

It's the adrenalin, stupid!

This will go up on 10sballs in a few hours:
Going late into the third set, I thought Wawrinka was making a mistake in not engaging in more rallies involving movement like he and Djokovic demonstrated in the quarters. I felt that while Berdych is definitely an exquisite striker of the ball, he did not move as well as Wawrinka and if Stan kept the premium on movement, he could swing the scales slightly in his favor in baseline exchanges. Perhaps part of the thinking was that he was at a slight disadvantage if endurance became a significant issue in the match because of the strenuous nature of his quarterfinal match with Djokovic. But Berdych was getting more and more comfortable and winning his service game more and more routinely.

Given all that, it really seemed in the second set tie-breaker that the real culprit for Stan would be mental fatigue. He would not be physically exhausted at this point, but he could simply be mentally exhausted and unable to get up for the big moments when they presented themselves as they invariably do in matches like this. Then, at 4-4 in the third, Wawrinka went down 0-30, but came up with a couple of big shots and great serves to hold and seemed to give his adrenal glands the necessary "squeeze" to fire him through to the end of the set and into the tie-breaker.

Commentator Wilander noted that Berdych had seemingly stayed away from Wawrinka's backhand the first set and a half and Stan was hurting Tomas with his forehand; but then it seemed as if Berdych was actually a tactical genius as he started to go after Wawrinka's backhand in the late stages of the 2nd and 3rd sets at key times. Berdych seemed to be swinging control of the match in his favor.

However, a five set match is a very different animal. The amazing experience Wawrinka has gained in the three marathon 5-set matches he has played in the last year against Djokovic may have been severely undervalued. Stan appeared to be somewhat mentally frayed in the latter stages of the third set, especially at 0-30 in that 4-4 game. But once he got that surge of adrenalin and held in that ninth game, his whole demeanor changed. When the time came to provide some of his best stuff, he appeared to be ready and able to perform as necessary. It turned out Stan's approach to surviving the long test of a three-out-of-five-set match against an elite opponent on the big stage was just right.

Wawrinka got the early mini-break in the third set tie-breaker, but Berdych played a brilliant point to get it back to 2-3. I could swear I saw the surge of adrenalin through Berdych's body at this point just before he stepped up to serve; he almost visibly shook just before double-faulting to go down 2-4. Stan was firing on all cylinders at this point and took the tie-breaker when Tomas double-faulted again at 3-6.

Wawrinka kept the pressure on in the first game of the fourth set as he made Berdych serve for 12 minutes, but the big Czech survived two break points, the only ones of the fourth set for either player. Stan proved to have the necessary reserves to come back from 0-30 in the 4-4 and 5-5 games with big serving just when he needed it. After those two close calls, he got off to a crisp start in the tie-breaker. His backhand passing shot forced an error volley from Berdych on the first point and then on the second point he continued to press the issue approaching the net after a second serve and forcing a backhand error from Tomas. Berdych missed a backhand return at 2-0 and suddenly the higher seed was in a big hole. Berdych made a fine forehand to force an error, but he gave up another key double fault at 1-3 to go down two mini-breaks. Wawrinka played just a little bit tentatively, understandably as he was just 3 points from his first Grand Slam final, and Berdych played a good point to draw a forced backhand error from the Swiss. Wawrinka answered with an ace to make it 2-5. Two points away! Berdych again failed to make his first serve, but played a good forehand to draw a forced backhand error from Wawrinka. Then at 3-5 with his back against the wall, Berdych missed another forehand. Now, serving at 6-3, Wawrinka blinked and served a double. But he immediately righted his ship and made the final with a service winner down the T to Berdych's backhand.

It should be duly noted that there is no extraneous expenditure of energy from either of these players; they simply could not afford it. They are all business; they play at a crisp pace with little ball bouncing and they certainly don't waste any energy with grunting or shrieking. The whole match was played with a great attitude - a great display of sportsmanship.

It's amazing how close the match was statistically. Points: 142 to 143. Winners: 60 for Berdych, 57 for Wawrinka; the difference was the in the 21 to 18 ace edge for Berdych. Both had 49 ue's. Tomas made 87 first serves compared to Stan's 88. Stan won 72 compared to Tomas's 71; Stan won two more 2nd serve points: 32 to 30. Stan did have the only converted break point in 4 chances; Tomas had just the one chance in the second set. Berdych led receiving points 41 to 39. There was, however, one key difference: 3 more double faults for Berdych including the 3 key ones in the last two tie-breakers.

Wawrinka has been much overlooked. Hardly anyone has named him as a possible contender for the top 4 or 5 places in the rankings. But with tonight's win he has assured himself a move ahead of Murray and Berdych to at least the number 6 berth in the rankings. Unless Federer beats Nadal and then beats his fellow Swiss in the final, Stan has assured himself at least the number 5 ranking, not to mention the number two spot in the Race to London. And if he should manage one more victory, and remember that he gets an extra day of rest to prepare for Nadal or Federer, he not only leads the Race to London, but he takes up the number three position in the rankings. Of course, there would be the minor detail that he would become just the 6th man to win a grand slam title in the last 10 years.

Berdych's fine run in this tournament should not be overlooked either. He played a very high quality match with 60 winners to 49 unforced errors. The statistical difference here was paper thin. It will be hard for Tomas not to take this loss hard. Especially after the double faults. I've always felt his first serve percentage was too low and his double faults were too high. He is striking the ball absolutely beautifully. And in my last post, I mentioned that I didn't think any of the big guys could implement the aggressive style Federer has been using to take down his opponents the last 10 days. But Berdych's technique on his volleys is so good and his approaches are so big, I think he could definitely play a lot more in the front court. I'd sure like to see it. He can improve his first serve percentage and eliminate some of those double faults. That is completely in his hands. Getting his confidence back after this loss may be a little tougher, but physically, he is such an imposing player, he is definitely capable of joining the top group. But he must fix that second serve and close just a little more.

In light of the way Wawrinka has competed on the biggest stages with three five-set matches against Djokovic in the last year and the increased maturity and consistency he has exhibited since joining forces with Magnus Norman last year, Stan could truly be the man in 2014. He's still just 28 years old and has very few points to defend besides a final at Madrid and quarters at Roland Garos. At the very least, there is a significant changing of the guard. If Roger can continue to show the good form he's had the last month, we will be talking about the top six players. (It would be the top 7 with Berdych. I think Ferrer is going to have a very hard time maintaining his current ranking in the next few months.) That would be very good for the game…and a lot more fun to watch. I think Djokovic and Nadal will continue to keep themselves separated from the rest, but the breach between them and the rest will begin to shrink just a little bit.

OMG One more night tomorrow without sleep to see Federer play Nadal. It's going to be a long day today.

10sChiro

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[stroke]

Nadal's left hand looks a right mess with a huge blister bleeding like a gaping wound. That's got to help Roger's cause I at least a little bit. I didn't see Nadal/Dimitrov but apparently Nadal was struggling to serve with that blister.

I think Nadal's hand is a big deal and a big break for Roger and another slam. As well as Roger is playing, I still would not pick him vs Nadal if not for hand problem of Nadal. It looks to me that number 18 is coming for Roger.

[klacr]

This will go up on 10sballs in a few hours:
Going late into the third set, I thought Wawrinka was making a mistake in not engaging in more rallies involving movement like he and Djokovic demonstrated in the quarters. I felt that while Berdych is definitely an exquisite striker of the ball, he did not move as well as Wawrinka and if Stan kept the premium on movement, he could swing the scales slightly in his favor in baseline exchanges. Perhaps part of the thinking was that he was at a slight disadvantage if endurance became a significant issue in the match because of the strenuous nature of his quarterfinal match with Djokovic. But Berdych was getting more and more comfortable and winning his service game more and more routinely.

Given all that, it really seemed in the second set tie-breaker that the real culprit for Stan would be mental fatigue. He would not be physically exhausted at this point, but he could simply be mentally exhausted and unable to get up for the big moments when they presented themselves as they invariably do in matches like this. Then, at 4-4 in the third, Wawrinka went down 0-30, but came up with a couple of big shots and great serves to hold and seemed to give his adrenal glands the necessary "squeeze" to fire him through to the end of the set and into the tie-breaker.

Commentator Wilander noted that Berdych had seemingly stayed away from Wawrinka's backhand the first set and a half and Stan was hurting Tomas with his forehand; but then it seemed as if Berdych was actually a tactical genius as he started to go after Wawrinka's backhand in the late stages of the 2nd and 3rd sets at key times. Berdych seemed to be swinging control of the match in his favor.

However, a five set match is a very different animal. The amazing experience Wawrinka has gained in the three marathon 5-set matches he has played in the last year against Djokovic may have been severely undervalued. Stan appeared to be somewhat mentally frayed in the latter stages of the third set, especially at 0-30 in that 4-4 game. But once he got that surge of adrenalin and held in that ninth game, his whole demeanor changed. When the time came to provide some of his best stuff, he appeared to be ready and able to perform as necessary. It turned out Stan's approach to surviving the long test of a three-out-of-five-set match against an elite opponent on the big stage was just right.

Wawrinka got the early mini-break in the third set tie-breaker, but Berdych played a brilliant point to get it back to 2-3. I could swear I saw the surge of adrenalin through Berdych's body at this point just before he stepped up to serve; he almost visibly shook just before double-faulting to go down 2-4. Stan was firing on all cylinders at this point and took the tie-breaker when Tomas double-faulted again at 3-6.

Wawrinka kept the pressure on in the first game of the second set as he made Berdych serve for 12 minutes, but the big Czech survived two break points, the only ones of the third set for either player. Stan proved to have the necessary reserves to come back from 0-30 in the 4-4 and 5-5 games with big serving just when he needed it. After those two close calls, he got off to a crisp start in the tie-breaker. His backhand passing shot forced an error volley from Berdych on the first point and then on the second point he continued to press the issue approaching the net after a second serve and forcing a backhand error from Tomas. Berdych missed a backhand return at 2-0 and suddenly the higher seed was in a big hole. Berdych made a fine forehand to force an error, but he gave up another key double fault at 1-3 to go down two mini-breaks. Wawrinka played just a little bit tentatively, understandably as he was just 3 points from his first Grand Slam final, and Berdych played a good point to draw a forced backhand error from the Swiss. Wawrinka answered with an ace to make it 2-5. Two points away! Berdych again failed to make his first serve, but played a good forehand to draw a forced backhand error from Wawrinka. Then at 3-5 with his back against the wall, Berdych missed another forehand. Now, serving at 6-3, Wawrinka blinked and served a double. But he immediately righted his ship and made the final with a service winner down the T to Berdych's backhand.

It should be duly noted that there is no extraneous expenditure of energy from either of these players; they simply could not afford it. They are all business; they play at a crisp pace with little ball bouncing and they certainly don't waste any energy with grunting or shrieking. The whole match was played with a great attitude - a great display of sportsmanship.

It's amazing how close the match was statistically. Points: 142 to 143. Winners: 60 for Berdych, 57 for Wawrinka; the difference was the in the 21 to 18 ace edge for Berdych. Both had 49 ue's. Tomas made 87 first serves compared to Stan's 88. Stan won 72 compared to Tomas's 71; Stan won two more 2nd serve points: 32 to 30. Stan did have the only converted break point in 4 chances; Tomas had just the one chance in the second set. Berdych led receiving points 41 to 39. There was, however, one key difference: 3 more double faults for Berdych including the 3 key ones in the last two tie-breakers.

Wawrinka has been much overlooked. Hardly anyone has named him as a possible contender for the top 4 or 5 places in the rankings. But with tonight's win he has assured himself a move ahead of Murray and Berdych to at least the number 6 berth in the rankings. Unless Federer beats Nadal and then beats his fellow Swiss in the final, Stan has assured himself at least the number 5 ranking, not to mention the number two spot in the Race to London. And if he should manage one more victory, and remember that he gets an extra day of rest to prepare for Nadal or Federer, he not only leads the Race to London, but he takes up the number three position in the rankings. Of course, there would be the minor detail that he would become just the 6th man to win a grand slam title in the last 10 years.

Berdych's fine run in this tournament should not be overlooked either. He played a very high quality match with 60 winners to 49 unforced errors. The statistical difference here was paper thin. It will be hard for Tomas not to take this loss hard. Especially after the double faults. I've always felt his first serve percentage was too low and his double faults were too high. He is striking the ball absolutely beautifully. And in my last post, I mentioned that I didn't think any of the big guys could implement the aggressive style Federer has been using to take down his opponents the last 10 days. But Berdych's technique on his volleys is so good and his approaches are so big, I think he could definitely play a lot more in the front court. I'd sure like to see it. He can improve his first serve percentage and eliminate some of those double faults. That is completely in his hands. Getting his confidence back after this loss may be a little tougher, but physically, he is such an imposing player, he is definitely capable of joining the top group. But he must fix that second serve and close just a little more.

In light of the way Wawrinka has competed on the biggest stages with three five-set matches against Djokovic in the last year and the increased maturity and consistency he has exhibited since joining forces with Magnus Norman last year, Stan could truly be the man in 2014. He's still just 28 years old and has very few points to defend besides a final at Madrid and quarters at Roland Garos. At the very least, there is a significant changing of the guard. If Roger can continue to show the good form he's had the last month, we will be talking about the top six players. (It would be the top 7 with Berdych. I think Ferrer is going to have a very hard time maintaining his current ranking in the next few months.) That would be very good for the game…and a lot more fun to watch. I think Djokovic and Nadal will continue to keep themselves separated from the rest, but the breach between them and the rest will begin to shrink just a little bit.

OMG One more night tomorrow without sleep to see Federer play Nadal. It's going to be a long day today.

10sChiro

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Great post Don. Very good numbers. Thanks for not being too harsh on Tberd.

Berdych the leader in a few categories. 3 of the 4 sets going to a tie-break. Anyone's match. Double faults were brutal for my boy. Typical Czech serving. Big first serves with a hard slice as a second, very little kick. At 6'5", you gotta be able to have a big kick serve. Guess not. What do I know? I picked Tomas to go all the way. As usual. Credit to Wawrinka. In the end, it's probably better that Stan won. We get to see that gorgeous one-hander for one more match.

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

[stotty]

Federer's not shanking as much...

I think the new racket is helping Federer a lot. In answer to tennis_chiro's point, "is Federer hitting higher backhands better than with his old racket". Yes, I think he is. His backhand has been excellent thus far. He has shanked very few high backhands like he used to and he's coming over high backhands much better. This could be critical if he is to have any chance against Nadal.

I think his forehand is also working better, though not as good as it was when he was young. His forehand started faltering quite a long time ago and has never been quite the same since. His backhand has steadily improved throughout his career.

But the greater plus for me has been his shot making on wider balls. He's been making better shots off wide balls on both wings both when defending and attacking. His defensive work has been exemplary with the new racket...just managing to pick back wide slice backhands against Murray won him many points.

The true test comes tomorrow against Nadal. Murray is not back to his "A" game so that test turned out to be less than we hoped. Murray played poorly yet still dug out a set, and Federer really tightened up for a spell. His first two sets against Murray were excellent but Nadal can easily keep up with that provided he's not impaired with his blistered hand. My hope is that Federer will use his wide serve effectively to the deuce court, and serve and volley if he does...or get a mid-court reply to pick off with his forehand. If he can play cat and mouse with Nadal when serving to the deuce court, he could score many points. He needs to get Nadal reaching on that backhand wing...and steal in.

The good news about this year's Australian Open is that it has shown many players there are so many easy points to be won by getting to the net. This healthy disease may well turn out to be catching...

The other good thing this tournament has shown is that you can still improve at the age of 28...or even 32...just keep trying whatever age you are. You aren't the finished article at 25...work hard...there may be more in the tank.

I missed the Wawrinka v Berdych match...so thanks to tennis_chiro for the stats breakdown. From the stats it sounds like it must have been real close. I think Wawrinka deserves to be there. I expected him to win. I just hope he won't be a let down in the final. I actually think he would more chance against Nadal than he would against Federer. I don't think he could ever beat Federer.