Tweet
I spent a couple of hours this morning writing what I thought was a very nice piece about the one and only way Federer could be kept out of qualifying for London. Simple as one-two-three. It was just math. But then I hit the "close without saving button" by mistake and it was all gone and I had to go teach my afternoon lessons. I don't have the energy to redo it and it will be old news in short order. But I thought the Forum might appreciate my thoughts.
The only guys that could knock Roger out of the top 9 (because Murray is sidelined it is top 9, not top 8) are Wawrinka (trails by 295), Gasquet (trails by 325), Tsonga (trails by 390) and Raonic (trails by 675).
First of all, if Roger wins just one match in Paris against Anderson or Youhzny in the second round for 90 points, he is mathematically assured of a place in London. But to make it interesting, we'll assume he doesn't do that. After all, Youhzny has only lost to him 15 times in a row and he just won Valencia. He might think it's time to change his luck!
For Roger to be knocked out of a qualifying spot, three of those four players would have to pass his point total.
Wawrinka could do it with a semi-final showing, but that would mean beating Djokovic or his usurper. Not likely, but it certainly is possible.
Similarly, Gasquet could do it with just a semi-final showing, but he would have to get through Nadal or his usurper.
Tsonga could do it but semis would not be enough. He would need a final to make up the 390 point deficit he faces. He could catch Wawrinka or Gasquet with less than semis (if they lose early), but he'd need finals to overtake Roger. He's been there before, but that would also mean he would have to beat Gasquet (or his usurper) in the round of 16. So only one of the two of them could catch Roger (mathematically).
Finally, the only other player within 1000 points of Federer (the maximum points for Paris) is Raonic, but he would have to win the tournament. And he wouldn't meet Gasquet until the semis.
So there you have it. The one and only way Roger is kept out of London:
1. He fails to win a single match in Paris.
2. Gasquet makes it to the semis (probably beating Tsonga and Nadal)
3. Wawrinka makes it to the semis (probably beating Djokovic in the quarters).
4. And finally, after beating Gasquet in the semis, Raonic captures the final (Ladbroke's has him at 33/1).
It's as simple as 1 plus 1 is 2. Simple mathematics...Not
I wonder what the parlay odds would be on all four of those things happening or Federer not making it into the O2 this year.
A more interesting wager is whether or not Nadal will secure 666 points in Paris and London to guarantee himself the year-end number one ranking even if Djokovic secures all 2725 points he can earn by sweeping Paris, London and Davis Cup. And even if Djokovic wins all his matches, if he doesn't get some help from his Davis Cup teamates so they win the tie, then Nadal only needs 591 points (but 666 sounds much better). Del Potro, Djokovic, Wawrinka and Federer are all in the other half in Paris. It would be up to Tsonga, Gasquet, Ferrer, Simon, Raonic or Berdych among the seeds to knock him off the way he is playing. Oh and a fellow named Janowicz in the round of 16.
Just for arguments sake, let's say Nadal goes out in the quarters, maybe to Tsonga. And then wins just two matches in the round robin in London. That's 580 points. To overcome Nadal's current(10/28/13) 2060 point lead, Novak would need 2641 points to pass him. Then Djokovic sweeps everything winning at least 2650 points to pass Nadal and take the year-end number one ranking. (Just to be spiteful, I'm not letting Djoker have everything and they lose Davis Cup!)
Djokovic would have swept everything since the US Open, regained the number one ranking and perhaps beaten Nadal in London's semis. I still think you have to give Nadal Player of the Year honors for two majors and beating Djokovic in both of those events as well as the depth of his record winning 5 ATP 1000's, 2 ATP 500's and 1 ATP 250 along with the French and US Open championships. Except for the early first round exit at Wimbledon (something was wrong), he only lost once before the finals, two weeks ago in Shanghai to Delpo.
don
The only guys that could knock Roger out of the top 9 (because Murray is sidelined it is top 9, not top 8) are Wawrinka (trails by 295), Gasquet (trails by 325), Tsonga (trails by 390) and Raonic (trails by 675).
First of all, if Roger wins just one match in Paris against Anderson or Youhzny in the second round for 90 points, he is mathematically assured of a place in London. But to make it interesting, we'll assume he doesn't do that. After all, Youhzny has only lost to him 15 times in a row and he just won Valencia. He might think it's time to change his luck!
For Roger to be knocked out of a qualifying spot, three of those four players would have to pass his point total.
Wawrinka could do it with a semi-final showing, but that would mean beating Djokovic or his usurper. Not likely, but it certainly is possible.
Similarly, Gasquet could do it with just a semi-final showing, but he would have to get through Nadal or his usurper.
Tsonga could do it but semis would not be enough. He would need a final to make up the 390 point deficit he faces. He could catch Wawrinka or Gasquet with less than semis (if they lose early), but he'd need finals to overtake Roger. He's been there before, but that would also mean he would have to beat Gasquet (or his usurper) in the round of 16. So only one of the two of them could catch Roger (mathematically).
Finally, the only other player within 1000 points of Federer (the maximum points for Paris) is Raonic, but he would have to win the tournament. And he wouldn't meet Gasquet until the semis.
So there you have it. The one and only way Roger is kept out of London:
1. He fails to win a single match in Paris.
2. Gasquet makes it to the semis (probably beating Tsonga and Nadal)
3. Wawrinka makes it to the semis (probably beating Djokovic in the quarters).
4. And finally, after beating Gasquet in the semis, Raonic captures the final (Ladbroke's has him at 33/1).
It's as simple as 1 plus 1 is 2. Simple mathematics...Not
I wonder what the parlay odds would be on all four of those things happening or Federer not making it into the O2 this year.
A more interesting wager is whether or not Nadal will secure 666 points in Paris and London to guarantee himself the year-end number one ranking even if Djokovic secures all 2725 points he can earn by sweeping Paris, London and Davis Cup. And even if Djokovic wins all his matches, if he doesn't get some help from his Davis Cup teamates so they win the tie, then Nadal only needs 591 points (but 666 sounds much better). Del Potro, Djokovic, Wawrinka and Federer are all in the other half in Paris. It would be up to Tsonga, Gasquet, Ferrer, Simon, Raonic or Berdych among the seeds to knock him off the way he is playing. Oh and a fellow named Janowicz in the round of 16.
Just for arguments sake, let's say Nadal goes out in the quarters, maybe to Tsonga. And then wins just two matches in the round robin in London. That's 580 points. To overcome Nadal's current(10/28/13) 2060 point lead, Novak would need 2641 points to pass him. Then Djokovic sweeps everything winning at least 2650 points to pass Nadal and take the year-end number one ranking. (Just to be spiteful, I'm not letting Djoker have everything and they lose Davis Cup!)
Djokovic would have swept everything since the US Open, regained the number one ranking and perhaps beaten Nadal in London's semis. I still think you have to give Nadal Player of the Year honors for two majors and beating Djokovic in both of those events as well as the depth of his record winning 5 ATP 1000's, 2 ATP 500's and 1 ATP 250 along with the French and US Open championships. Except for the early first round exit at Wimbledon (something was wrong), he only lost once before the finals, two weeks ago in Shanghai to Delpo.
don
Comment