Federer Changing Racquets

[klacr]

Maybe federer read my post: Adapt or die. I rec. a 98 sq. in frame, with the same string, strung at 59/61, a 65 ra, at 365g.

Good call Geoff. When he wins the US Open this year he needs to give you a cut of the winner's check.

He's playing well in Hamburg this week. We'll see how he does in Gstaad next week as well.

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

[dimitrios]

He's playing well in Hamburg this week. We'll see how he does in Gstaad next week as well.

Fed looked shaky at best this week. His backhand had a lot more life to it at times but he really never looked comfortable consistently out there. (Lost today in the semis, in straight sets, to a qualifier!)

All this will no doubt take some getting used to. That said it may present a new challenge for someone who needs them at this stage in his career. I would look for the new racket to have its biggest impact in two areas of his game: first, the return, and, second, on getting more action on the ball when he finds himself in a defensive position.

[klacr]

Fed looked shaky at best this week. His backhand had a lot more life to it at times but he really never looked comfortable consistently out there. (Lost today in the semis, in straight sets, to a qualifier!)

No matter how it may look, winning any match at that level is looking good. Is it the perfect Fed we saw in 2004-2006, well no. But he will take his semi-final appearance and build off it for Gstaad.

Guarantee if you made semis of Hamburg, even if winning sloppy, you'd call it playing well. At that level, a win is a win. Build on the wins, let go of losses. Sign of a great tennis player...short term memory.

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

[stotty]

On the button there, Klacr.

Build on the wins, let go of losses. Sign of a great tennis player...short term memory.

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

Spot on...that's what I tell all my aspiring juniors.

[klacr]

Spot on...that's what I tell all my aspiring juniors.

Thanks Stotty.

Simple words but clearly harder to execute. One of the hardest things for people to realize is that even the best tennis players in the world. The absolute elite, still lose every week. For many top ranked juniors, they say this is the hardest to accept. In juniors, you may be able to run the table for a good period of time. You are not used to losing. In the pros, losing is happening more often than not. It's a harsh world out there. Welcome to the big leagues kid!

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

[dimitrios]

Guarantee if you made semis of Hamburg, even if winning sloppy, you'd call it playing well. At that level, a win is a win. Build on the wins, let go of losses. Sign of a great tennis player...short term memory.

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

I think you're being a bit generous here. Fed lost in straight sets to a qualifier!!! Lost in straights to Tsonga at the French and lost to a non-powerhouse (albeit one who played like one for a day!) at Wimbledon -- his first pre-quarerfinal loss at a Slam in nine years. The writing is (and has been for some time) on the wall.

These losses not only likely sting him in a cumulative manner, they also steadily embolden his opponents!

I agree, as you point out, that one should "let go of losses"; I just think that's getting harder and harder for Fed to do so these days.

If one were to spin it in Fed's favor, one could say he's testing out a new racket and finding his way with that.

[dimitrios]

The racket, according to this weekend's Wall Street Journal, is "based on Federer's requests and feedback from previous tests." Also the process of developing the racket is "far from over." Lastly, "the racket is not a Wilson Blade 98.... it was made in Wilson's Chicago lab" and is therefore a prototype.

[GeoffWilliams]

Does not have the h22 rounded beam. Looks like it does not have enough power to it for his liking.

[tennis_chiro]

How tough is it really?!

Thanks Stotty.

Simple words but clearly harder to execute. One of the hardest things for people to realize is that even the best tennis players in the world. The absolute elite, still lose every week. For many top ranked juniors, they say this is the hardest to accept. In juniors, you may be able to run the table for a good period of time. You are not used to losing. In the pros, losing is happening more often than not. It's a harsh world out there. Welcome to the big leagues kid!

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

The 33rd through 52nd players in the world this week average 26.1 tournaments per year. These are great players, but a little behind the guys that are getting seeded at the Grand Slams and the ATP1000's.

Youzny, great player, is # 32. In 2012 played 22 events going 32-21 (60.3%) winning Zagreb and $824, 396 for the year. He's played 26 events in the last 12 months and is 20-15 so far this year. He has 1235 ranking points.

Hanescu, a good player (career earnings over $3.8MM), is #52. He's played 25 tournaments in the last 12 months and has 857 points. His record is 14-16 this year. In 2012 he played a lot more matches than he gets credit for. He is listed as 6-13, but that is only on full ATP Tour level events. He also played a lot of matches in challengers, winning three and getting to the Challengers Tour Finals. This year his actual match record is 18-17 (51.4%) including all the qualifying matches he's won. He's done well, moving up his ranking and earning over $317K so far this year

Imagine for a moment that you win 1/2 of your matches and we give you 26 trips to the plate. That means you win 13 first rounds. We'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say you win 7 second rounds (7/13). Then you win 3 (3/7) third rounds/quarters. We'll give you one of three fourth rounds and even one fifth round in an ATP250 for a title. That's exactly half your matches.

Now we take it down to your points. In the majors, you win two first rounds and one second and even one third to get you to 50% in the majors (0-1, 0-1, 1-1, 3-1 adds up to 4-4). It also gets you, 10, 10, 45 and 180 points and somewhere between $200,000 and $250,000 (that 4th round was worth about $150,000).

Then in the super 9's, we'll say you played 8 and went 50% here too (0-1 4 times, 1-1 twice, and 3-1 twice for an total of 8-8). That got you about $45,000 for the first round losses, another $35k to $45k for the second round losses and one of the fourth rounds was IW or Miami so that was a quarter and a semi or maybe $150,000. So, again somewhere between $200,000 and $250,000. We'll call it a total of $450,000 for majors and ATP 1000's so far. For points you got 40 for the first round losses, 90 for the two second round losses, and 180 and 360 for the quarter and semi for a total of 670 points. That's pretty good. You've already got 915 points in just 12 events.

So you've made almost $500,000 and you have only played 12 events and 18 weeks. You've got the rest of the year to put up 6 more good results toward your rankings out of another 14 events you will play for a total of 32 tournament weeks for the year (including second weeks of two week events which is usually a rest week). If you are really doing this well, you stand a good chance of being seeded for the 4 500's you will play and highly seeded for the other 10 ATP250's you will play. You should be able to make another $200,000 to $300,000 for those 14 events and add another 200 points. 1100 points will put you at about 35 in the world.

Current YTD records of the players from 31 to 35:
31 Lopez: 16-10 $573,000
32 Youzhny 20-15 $729,388
33 Meltzer 17-18 $669,495 (doubles)
34 Verdasco 18-14 $831,587
35 Benneteau 18-11 $747,878 (doubles)
and
40 Rosol 15-14 $412,299
41 Tomic 19-13 $516,434
42 Davydenko 16-16 $433,452

My point? If you can win half your matches at the upper levels of this game, you are really good and you will be rewarded. Win 2 out of 3 and you can get to the top 20 and maybe beyond. Today, 70% gets you in the top 11 in the world. But you are still going to lose almost every week!!

Fed's career record is 81.4%. This year it is 30-9 counting this week, 76.9%. From 2004-2006 Fed was 247-15 (94.3%). He is not that guy anymore!

don

[stroke]

Thanks Stotty.

Simple words but clearly harder to execute. One of the hardest things for people to realize is that even the best tennis players in the world. The absolute elite, still lose every week. For many top ranked juniors, they say this is the hardest to accept. In juniors, you may be able to run the table for a good period of time. You are not used to losing. In the pros, losing is happening more often than not. It's a harsh world out there. Welcome to the big leagues kid!

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

Sometimes it is hard to let go of points, must less matches. How about the complete Verdasco meltdown in the last Hamburg loss. He lost the 2nd set and lost it completely. Took a bathroom break, hit the locker, hurt his hand, and called for the trainer. What an insight into mental harshness of tennis.

[klacr]

I think you're being a bit generous here. Fed lost in straight sets to a qualifier!!! Lost in straights to Tsonga at the French and lost to a non-powerhouse (albeit one who played like one for a day!) at Wimbledon -- his first pre-quarerfinal loss at a Slam in nine years. The writing is (and has been for some time) on the wall.

You call it generous, I call it being respectful. I have a hard time bashing or giving up on a guy that's one 17 grand slams. If my math is correct, that is 17 more grand slams than all of us on this thread combined. I guess that's my mentality.
As for his losses, its not like these guys are terrible. There is a term "Any Given Day". They played well. They are allowed that right just as much as Federer is.

The excellence Federer has displayed throughout his career has made expectations of him ridiculously and unfairly high. Is he where he was in 2006? Of course not, but we expect him to be. It's ok, I get it. I'm not delusional. His best days may be behind him, but that mind and body still carry some magic. Many tennis fans claimed the writing is on the wall back in 2009 after he lost in the Australian Open finals to Nadal. He then won the french open and wimbledon. Champions love proving people wrong just one last time.

People jump off and on the bandwagon like fleas on a dirty terrier. That's there prerogative. I get it.

“Let us learn to show our friendship for a man when he is alive and not after he is dead" - F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

[stroke]

I think Fed has at least 1 more majpr in him. And his record of 36 Grand Slam quarters in a row is hard to even truly appreciate.

[stotty]

I think Fed has at least 1 more majpr in him. And his record of 36 Grand Slam quarters in a row is hard to even truly appreciate.

Yes, it's possible. With a good draw and one of the other key players getting knocked out, it would take just one blinding performance to lift a slam trophy.

It can happen. Rosewall knocked around well after his sell by date and ended up in two slam finals at nearly 40 years of age.

It's well worth Federer lurking around if you ask me. I just wonder if he's left it a little late to change his racket.

Love tennis_chiro's win/loss permutations. Players really do spend a lot of time losing, don't they?

[klacr]

The 33rd through 52nd players in the world this week average 26.1 tournaments per year. These are great players, but a little behind the guys that are getting seeded at the Grand Slams and the ATP1000's.

Youzny, great player, is # 32. In 2012 played 22 events going 32-21 (60.3%) winning Zagreb and $824, 396 for the year. He's played 26 events in the last 12 months and is 20-15 so far this year. He has 1235 ranking points.

Hanescu, a good player (career earnings over $3.8MM), is #52. He's played 25 tournaments in the last 12 months and has 857 points. His record is 14-16 this year. In 2012 he played a lot more matches than he gets credit for. He is listed as 6-13, but that is only on full ATP Tour level events. He also played a lot of matches in challengers, winning three and getting to the Challengers Tour Finals. This year his actual match record is 18-17 (51.4%) including all the qualifying matches he's won. He's done well, moving up his ranking and earning over $317K so far this year

Imagine for a moment that you win 1/2 of your matches and we give you 26 trips to the plate. That means you win 13 first rounds. We'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say you win 7 second rounds (7/13). Then you win 3 (3/7) third rounds/quarters. We'll give you one of three fourth rounds and even one fifth round in an ATP250 for a title. That's exactly half your matches.

Now we take it down to your points. In the majors, you win two first rounds and one second and even one third to get you to 50% in the majors (0-1, 0-1, 1-1, 3-1 adds up to 4-4). It also gets you, 10, 10, 45 and 180 points and somewhere between $200,000 and $250,000 (that 4th round was worth about $150,000).

Then in the super 9's, we'll say you played 8 and went 50% here too (0-1 4 times, 1-1 twice, and 3-1 twice for an total of 8-8). That got you about $45,000 for the first round losses, another $35k to $45k for the second round losses and one of the fourth rounds was IW or Miami so that was a quarter and a semi or maybe $150,000. So, again somewhere between $200,000 and $250,000. We'll call it a total of $450,000 for majors and ATP 1000's so far. For points you got 40 for the first round losses, 90 for the two second round losses, and 180 and 360 for the quarter and semi for a total of 670 points. That's pretty good. You've already got 915 points in just 12 events.

So you've made almost $500,000 and you have only played 12 events and 18 weeks. You've got the rest of the year to put up 6 more good results toward your rankings out of another 14 events you will play for a total of 32 tournament weeks for the year (including second weeks of two week events which is usually a rest week). If you are really doing this well, you stand a good chance of being seeded for the 4 500's you will play and highly seeded for the other 10 ATP250's you will play. You should be able to make another $200,000 to $300,000 for those 14 events and add another 200 points. 1100 points will put you at about 35 in the world.

Current YTD records of the players from 31 to 35:
31 Lopez: 16-10 $573,000
32 Youzhny 20-15 $729,388
33 Meltzer 17-18 $669,495 (doubles)
34 Verdasco 18-14 $831,587
35 Benneteau 18-11 $747,878 (doubles)
and
40 Rosol 15-14 $412,299
41 Tomic 19-13 $516,434
42 Davydenko 16-16 $433,452

My point? If you can win half your matches at the upper levels of this game, you are really good and you will be rewarded. Win 2 out of 3 and you can get to the top 20 and maybe beyond. Today, 70% gets you in the top 11 in the world. But you are still going to lose almost every week!!

Fed's career record is 81.4%. This year it is 30-9 counting this week, 76.9%. From 2004-2006 Fed was 247-15 (94.3%). He is not that guy anymore!

don

Great number crunching Don! Wow. My head hurts. Yes, the money is good. But as a competitor, the losing still stinks. Delbonis will pick up a nice paycheck this week for making the finals. But having 3 match points for his maiden ATP Title, and losing, well I'm sure he'd like to be holding the winner's trophy.

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

[bman]

Oddly enough I thought Fed played pretty well against Delbonis. Remember Delbonis just beat Verdasco, who was a hair away from beating Murray at WImbledon. Fed just lost a few key points, just like against Stakhovsky. I actually think his backhand is better than ever. I don't expect him to win any more slams, but he's still dangerous, and that, as a fan, makes me excited.