Roma!!

[tennis_chiro]

Is anyone else as excited as I am about the show Janowicz is putting on in Rome. The announcers keep saying he should do better when he gets to the faster surfaces like the grass and US summer hardcourts. They are missing the point. The red clay slows down the ball and gives him a little extra time he needs to get to almost everyone else's balls, but it doesn't slow down his weapons enough for his opponents to be able to get to his shots. Last November, I wrote that I thought Jerzy was the best mover

(http://www.10sballs.com/2012/11/02/w...erzy-janowicz/)

I'd seen over 6' 5" tall, but I want to revise that to include the 6'5" guys. He doesn't move like a big lumbering guy on the dirt; he looks really great on it and he covers court really well using his reach.

It's so exciting to see someone going forward to finish points. If he starts to settle the groundies down just a little bit, quits trying for too much on the serve and hitting so many doubles (cost him a key break today) and gets just a little more judicious with the drop shot, he is going to be knocking on that top 5 neighborhood. Double his last 6 months (and he's only got 215 points from the US Open, Wimbledon and Australian Open) and he'd already be at 15 in the world (up from 212 at the beginning of 2012). But he's going to do much better than that. He's going to have seedings the rest of the year and maybe even top 16 seedings by the time Wimbledon rolls around if he keeps this quality of play up through Roland Garros. I love his strokes: forehand, backhand, serve and volleys. The dropshot: forgetaboudit! Just think what happens when he puts on the 10 to 15 pounds of muscle he will naturally add the next 2 years as well as a whole other level of match maturity that he is still sadly lacking. He is like a teenager out there. I'm really excited for his prospects. Who else outside the top 6 has beaten 5 top 10 players since November 1?!

I'd like to see him add or improve his Rosewallian slice to further disguise his drop shot. I'd also like to see him use more kicker first serves as a change of pace and a few more serve-and-volleys on second serves to force his opponents to try to do more with those returns. It's right in line with the great all court tennis Tommy Haas demonstrated a few weeks ago to surprise Djokovic and Simon at Miami. The old guy and the young guy are both showing the veterans that there is still room for the volley in the pro game.

Come on don_budge, haven't you seen the difference here?! This is exciting. Wawrinka, Dimitrov, Janowicz, Haas and even Gulbis. There are actually some interesting challengers presenting themselves...finally! Doesn't anybody else see it?

don

[don_budge]

How can one miss it????

Come on don_budge, haven't you seen the difference here?! This is exciting. Wawrinka, Dimitrov, Janowicz, Haas and even Gulbis. There are actually some interesting challengers presenting themselves...finally! Doesn't anybody else see it?

don

Of course...my friend. I am seeing the exact same thing you are. In particular I have been watching Wawrinka and Dimitrov...Janowicz seemed to have dropped off a bit. Haas won't be around long enough to make much of an impact...he may have shot the load at this point. Gulbis...still a question mark with regards to his consistency.

Well it is all a question of consistency with these guys...all except for Haas. As a wily old veteran he knows how to set up the table and make a run of it. But these other guys are really interesting. If Wawrinka, Dimitrov and Janowicz can all start to produce on a consistent basis throughout the year it will make things much more interesting than the same old dish that we have been served the past few years. But you are right as well about Gulbis...he is the kind of character that can spice it up a bit.

The really interesting thing is do these young guys and their brain trust have the wherewithal to peak at the right time. We are certainly going to find out here pretty quickly.

Great observations. Wonderful discussion and analysis. I'm really glad that you brought it up. I was thinking the same thing. Great minds think alike!

[klacr]

I see it Don! I see it. Janowicz is nice to watch, but I can go without the constant drop shots and overly theatrical emotion and temper tantrums. But I see your points on his game. The clay does give him time to set up and he hits hard and flat enough to penetrate the court a la Robin Soderling.

I do like the attacking style and frequent trips to the net. I'll never complain about that. But its still a Federer, Nadal, Djokovic World. Until someone shows up big time and breaksthrough to win a grand slam (Berdych), It's hard to imagine any of these guys competing and defeating 2 of the top 3 players in the world in best of 5 matches. At least, not now.

Although, I'd love to see Tommy Haas and his amazing backhand make a run at the US Open in 4 years at 39 years old to rival Jimmy Connors.

With all that said, wake me up when Edberg, Becker, Krajicek come out of retirement and show these boys of today how to play.

Sincerely,

Kyle LaCroix

[don_budge]

2013 Internazionali BNL d'italia...Rome Italy

Speaking of the creeping changing landscape in men's tennis...the tournament enters the quarter final stage. But professional tennis has some of the feel of Big Time Wrestling these days as the players are playing the money game. They know that the big money is in the endorsements and the endorsements will be doled out largely based on the performance and the points awarded in the big events. The Grand Slam events in other words.

In the last couple of weeks...even months we have witnessed some rather startling upsets and some rather lackluster performances by some of the top players. They even elect to no play...they are jockeying for position and trying to peak. Their eyes are already on Roland Garros.

The quarterfinal match-ups on paper for the Rome event are compelling enough but we shall see how they are played out. At the top of the draw it is Djokovic and Berdych. In this pairing Djokovic has less to gain than his Czech and klacr favorite counterpart...Tomas Berdych. Berdych still needs to show Djokovic that he is to be taken seriously. As it stands now Djokovic owns the Czech with a 13-1 lifetime mark so it would behoove Berdych at some point to show Djokovic that he's nobodies whipping boy. Especially if he happens to meet up with him at Roland Garros. Berdych needs something to boost his confidence. It's a confidence game at that level of the game.

Speaking of confidence...it is the Everybody EverReady Energy Bunny in the boring and persevering David Ferrer who stands the most to gain in the next match-up. If Ferrer can make some kind of impression on Nadal at this stage of the season it certainly won't hurt him if he just so happens to meet up with him on a bigger stage but it isn't going to happen. Nadal is gaging himself on every match. He had plenty of rest in his time off and his brain trust is betting the house that he can run the table at Roland Garros one more time. He will need everything he can muster however as Djokovic shows very little respect these days so look for Nadal to use the Ferrer match as another warmup for the bigger event just down the road.

In the bottom half of the draw it looks as if it could be one of two things...and neither of those two thing have to do with the upper match between Benoit Paire or Marcel Granollers. Paire took out Juan Martin del Potro who appears to be taking the rest of the week off with an outside chance at contending for the French Open and Granollers took out Murray who is either faking an injury to do the same or he is truly injured.

The real drama is in the final match-up between Jerzy "Joe" Janowicz and Roger "The Man" Federer. This is a splendid match on paper but we shall see if it should materialize. Nothing needs to be said for the Jerzy "Joe" side of the camp...a win against Federer could mean everything for him at this point. For him to have that under his belt going into the French Open would mean everything. A win against Roger means a semi-final against the winner of Paire and Granollers and then a possible spot in the finals of the Rome Tournament. There is all kinds of motivation for this up and comer that we have all been watching with hope and high expectations...not to mention a little envy. One question...where are the Americans in this discussion. Answer...nowhere to be seen.

Then there is Roger Federer of course. Which Roger is likely to show up here? That is a very good question I believe. But on one hand it is a great opportunity for him to build up some great match toughness going into the French Open. A win over the up and comer and then a win against the weaker "sisters" gives him a spot in the finals. But does he want to get there...that is the real question. It certainly doesn't matter to him on paper at this state of his career. It is a question of whether it fits into his plans. Does it fit into his goal of peak performance at Roland Garros where he hopes to make it one last hurrah. Good question...isn't it? But that being said...does anyone give "The Man" a snowball's chance in hell in Paris. I guess you can't rule him out but it would certainly be an outside chance at this point. Look for Roger to try and give the upstart a lesson in Rome.

[don_budge]

Theater...sorely needed in the men's game

Janowicz is nice to watch, but I can go without the constant drop shots and overly theatrical emotion and temper tantrums.

Sincerely,

Kyle LaCroix

Clearly there is a desperate need for something more compelling than what has been dished up the past several years. I will take the emotion and the tantrums...just don't let them get in the way of the task at hand. Let the cats out of the box I say...bring on some colorful personality. The whole thing is so damned boring these days.

I also like the play of short in the court. Tactically it is a sound decision as nobody wants to play the forecourt these days. Bring these habitual baseliners out of their comfort zone...but do it wisely. I like the drop shot play...particularly when you can disguise and mix it with some assorted cannonballs. The change in tempo can upset the rhythm. Mixing up the depth is important to take these big guns out of their comfort zones. Djokovic has demonstrated this in his tactics against Nadal as he varies his depth and tempo. The additional choices of drop shot tactics mixed in with the wicked slice backhand and the perhaps soft balling to the two hand backhand side some is something that takes the big hitters just a bit out of their tempo.

I am really looking forwards to see how Jerzy plays Roger and what tactics he elects to go with. It's great to see some new blood in the mix.

But I understand your message...klacr.

[stotty]

But that being said...does anyone give "The Man" a snowball's chance in hell in Paris. I guess you can't rule him out but it would certainly be an outside chance at this point. Look for Roger to try and give the upstart a lesson in Rome.

Anything is possible if Nadal gets knocked out of RG unexpectedly. It happened once before, remember? Federer has a chance against anyone else. My bet is Federer won't work too hard to win Rome...better to tune up...if any match goes to three, better to throw in the towel...save himself for the French. It's only worth winning Rome if it's a breeze to get the final...which it could well be.

I'm pretty sure these kind of thoughts must be going through his mind. The only reason he's playing these days is to bide his time at slams hoping Nadal or Djokovic slip up. He'll be in like a shot if they do. You never know he may pick up another slam yet...history books and all that.

[klacr]

Clearly there is a desperate need for something more compelling than what has been dished up the past several years. I will take the emotion and the tantrums...just don't let them get in the way of the task at hand. Let the cats out of the box I say...bring on some colorful personality. The whole thing is so damned boring these days.

I also like the play of short in the court. Tactically it is a sound decision as nobody wants to play the forecourt these days. Bring these habitual baseliners out of their comfort zone...but do it wisely. I like the drop shot play...particularly when you can disguise and mix it with some assorted cannonballs. The change in tempo can upset the rhythm. Mixing up the depth is important to take these big guns out of their comfort zones. Djokovic has demonstrated this in his tactics against Nadal as he varies his depth and tempo. The additional choices of drop shot tactics mixed in with the wicked slice backhand and the perhaps soft balling to the two hand backhand side some is something that takes the big hitters just a bit out of their tempo.

I am really looking forwards to see how Jerzy plays Roger and what tactics he elects to go with. It's great to see some new blood in the mix.

But I understand your message...klacr.

don_budge,

I have nothing against the drop shot as a useful tool, but I do have something against the drop shot when a player is not in position to hit it or goes to the well way too often. Janowicz can be effective with it, but we tend to forget the 4 or 5 he'll hit into the middle of net for every one he pulls out of his #*% and executes remarkably.

Watching the Djokovic-Berdych match right now. 1st set to Djokovic...much to my chagrin.

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

[klacr]

Anyone see that Berdych-Djokovic Match?

Gotta Believe.

Still seats available next to me on the bandwagon. Been riding it for years. I always welcome the company.


Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

[bman]

Berdych has bigger game than anyone when he's on fire. I turned it on at 5-3 in the second and from there it was just an incredible display.

[stotty]

Puzzled

Missed the Berdych game. Klacr must be delighted. Strange result. Was it windy? Djokovic is always suspect in windy conditions. Something must have been amiss...unless Berdych simply played exceedingly well?

[tennis_chiro]

My predictions for Federer/Janowicz

this post should go up any minute on 10sBalls. I wanted to put it up before the match started!

How will Roger slay the giant giant-killer?

Many of us have been waiting all winter for Jerzy Janowicz to resume the form he demonstrated last November as he went through 5 top 20 players including Murray and Tipsarevic to reach the finals of the Paris ATP 1000. He's won some matches and shown flashes but hasn't produced anything like the astounding results he posted in that final ATP Tour event of 2012. This week he's knocked off two more top tens in Tsonga and Gasquet. There have been times when he's looked like the newcomer to the big time that he most certainly is, hitting too many dropshots, double-faulting 3 times in one game to lose his unbreakable serve and generally looking not-quite-ready-for-prime-time. But more of the time, he has actually looked better than he did last November.

Surprisingly, Jerzy is extremely comfortable on the slow red dirt of Foro Italico. When you see such a big man glide and slide on the clay, his grace and balance are astonishing; it takes you totally by surprise. No big man ever has the leg turnover of his smaller competitors and he will never be as fast as Murray, Djokovic, Nadal or Federer, but he is light on his feet and because of the way he takes advantage of his humongous reach, he is actually quick to the ball and covers a tremendous amount of court. Despite what many of the commentators would have you believe, clay may actually be his best surface as he moves so comfortably on it, taking advantage of his great sliding ability to set up for balls at the end of his range. He can not possibly match the quick and precise footwork of his relatively vertically challenged opponents on a hard court, but in Rome he is defending the full width of the court beautifully and turning defense into offense where no one even sees the possibility for such a turnaround. The slower pace of the dirt gives him the little extra time he needs to set up to hit his shots and puts his opponents shots at an ideal height for him; at the same time his shots are so big that he can afford to give up a little speed and still produce winners right and left.

Furthermore, his serves, especially his second serve, bounce so high, they put his opponents in an uncomfortable position to play their shots. He is putting players on their heels with his deep groundstrokes like no one we've seen in recent memory. What I like most of all is the way he is closing and finishing at the net. More often than not, he follows his dropshots in and finishes with a decisive volley. He is transitioning behind his groundstrokes as well as anyone, no probably better than anyone else I've seen lately. I really love the mechanics of his groundstrokes, serve and now, even his volleys. His height enables him to eat up court and attack well into the court on return of serve, especially second serve, with just one step. Some of his returns the last couple of days have been absolutely electrifying, or more like electrocuting for his opponents.

What I'd like to see him do is hit just a few more high kicking second serves as first serves and occasionally serve and volley on those balls so his opponents feel they can't get away with just floating the ball back deep where they take their chances with his blistering groundstrokes. I want them to have to take a little more risk and make a few more errors on the return of second serve, … or he can just knock off a lot more first volleys. I'd like to see a few less dropshots and I think the best way to accomplish that is to develop a Rosewallian slice that will penetrate the court, stay low as a change of pace and force his opponents to hit up; moreover, it can be hit off the same preparatory move as the backhand dropshot and the conundrum this will present to his opponents will make both shots that much more effective. Most of all, and unfortunately this will take time, he needs some maturity and experience. He needs to get comfortable with the big stage and the fact that his opponents will occasionally make some good shots and he has to just keep coming with more of the same rather than trying to hit too big of a first or second serve or even a routine baseline groundstroke. That tendency to overplay in tight spots has led him to too many double faults and unforced errors at key points in recent matches. But that experience will come. In fact, I don't see any way they can keep Jerzy out of the top ten much past Wimbledon. I think he will be there shortly. And, if we see the developments in his game I mentioned just above here, look out top 5 in 2014.

So that all sounds great, but what will Roger do with him today.Will I get this post up before the Federer/Janowicz match starts in about an hour? Look for the Great One to make Jerzy do all the things he doesn't like to do. Roger is in the rare position, for him, of having greater shot tolerance than an opponent who is an actual threat. The Pole will almost definitely hit a lot more winners than Roger today, but how many more unforced errors will he have. Look for Fed to use the slice to keep the ball low and stretch the big man. Expect the Swiss maestro to put the 6' 8" Janowicz on the move. He will change up pace and speed and spin constantly to keep the big man off balance. At the same time, he will hit a lot of balls right at Janowicz to avoid giving him angles. Janowicz will have to play much steadier than he had to against Tsonga or Gasquet. He can't afford to give away a game with doubles as he did yesterday in the first set against Gasquet. And Roger will absolutely feast on the banquet of poorly chosen and poorly executed drop shots he offered Richard in the first half of yesterday's match. No, Jerzy will have to be on his absolute best behavior today, at least 65% first serves, no more than one or two double-faults per set, judicious use of his drop shots and a reduced number of unforced errors while still playing his aggressive style of play. Most of all, while we want to see his energy and enthusiasm expressed, he must channel it all positively. He can not afford to waste any of it being distracted by discussions, or worse confrontations, with the umpire or linesmen. Just play.

And even if Jerzy can do all that, a healthy and match sharp Federer, even at 31, would find a way to dull the Pole's weapons and render him seemingly helpless; at least enough that he would drop no more than one close set, perhaps a tie-breaker, but still he would win comfortably in the final set. I was trying to explain to one of my young student's last weekend that there are certain things you have to accomplish in the first set of a match, especially a 2 out of 3 set match. Yes it is very important to win that first set, but there is actually something that is more important. At the end of the first set, win or lose, you must know how to win the 2nd set. A healthy and match sharp Federer would be able to do that today. But we don't really know if he is either. I am excited to find out.

don

[stotty]

this post should go up any minute on 10sBalls. I wanted to put it up before the match started!

How will Roger slay the giant giant-killer?

Many of us have been waiting all winter for Jerzy Janowicz to resume the form he demonstrated last November as he went through 5 top 20 players including Murray and Tipsarevic to reach the finals of the Paris ATP 1000. He's won some matches and shown flashes but hasn't produced anything like the astounding results he posted in that final ATP Tour event of 2012. This week he's knocked off two more top tens in Tsonga and Gasquet. There have been times when he's looked like the newcomer to the big time that he most certainly is, hitting too many dropshots, double-faulting 3 times in one game to lose his unbreakable serve and generally looking not-quite-ready-for-prime-time. But more of the time, he has actually looked better than he did last November.

Surprisingly, Jerzy is extremely comfortable on the slow red dirt of Foro Italico. When you see such a big man glide and slide on the clay, his grace and balance are astonishing; it takes you totally by surprise. No big man ever has the leg turnover of his smaller competitors and he will never be as fast as Murray, Djokovic, Nadal or Federer, but he is light on his feet and because of the way he takes advantage of his humongous reach, he is actually quick to the ball and covers a tremendous amount of court. Despite what many of the commentators would have you believe, clay may actually be his best surface as he moves so comfortably on it, taking advantage of his great sliding ability to set up for balls at the end of his range. He can not possibly match the quick and precise footwork of his relatively vertically challenged opponents on a hard court, but in Rome he is defending the full width of the court beautifully and turning defense into offense where no one even sees the possibility for such a turnaround. The slower pace of the dirt gives him the little extra time he needs to set up to hit his shots and puts his opponents shots at an ideal height for him; at the same time his shots are so big that he can afford to give up a little speed and still produce winners right and left.

Furthermore, his serves, especially his second serve, bounce so high, they put his opponents in an uncomfortable position to play their shots. He is putting players on their heels with his deep groundstrokes like no one we've seen in recent memory. What I like most of all is the way he is closing and finishing at the net. More often than not, he follows his dropshots in and finishes with a decisive volley. He is transitioning behind his groundstrokes as well as anyone, no probably better than anyone else I've seen lately. I really love the mechanics of his groundstrokes, serve and now, even his volleys. His height enables him to eat up court and attack well into the court on return of serve, especially second serve, with just one step. Some of his returns the last couple of days have been absolutely electrifying, or more like electrocuting for his opponents.

What I'd like to see him do is hit just a few more high kicking second serves as first serves and occasionally serve and volley on those balls so his opponents feel they can't get away with just floating the ball back deep where they take their chances with his blistering groundstrokes. I want them to have to take a little more risk and make a few more errors on the return of second serve, … or he can just knock off a lot more first volleys. I'd like to see a few less dropshots and I think the best way to accomplish that is to develop a Rosewallian slice that will penetrate the court, stay low as a change of pace and force his opponents to hit up; moreover, it can be hit off the same preparatory move as the backhand dropshot and the conundrum this will present to his opponents will make both shots that much more effective. Most of all, and unfortunately this will take time, he needs some maturity and experience. He needs to get comfortable with the big stage and the fact that his opponents will occasionally make some good shots and he has to just keep coming with more of the same rather than trying to hit too big of a first or second serve or even a routine baseline groundstroke. That tendency to overplay in tight spots has led him to too many double faults and unforced errors at key points in recent matches. But that experience will come. In fact, I don't see any way they can keep Jerzy out of the top ten much past Wimbledon. I think he will be there shortly. And, if we see the developments in his game I mentioned just above here, look out top 5 in 2014.

So that all sounds great, but what will Roger do with him today.Will I get this post up before the Federer/Janowicz match starts in about an hour? Look for the Great One to make Jerzy do all the things he doesn't like to do. Roger is in the rare position, for him, of having greater shot tolerance than an opponent who is an actual threat. The Pole will almost definitely hit a lot more winners than Roger today, but how many more unforced errors will he have. Look for Fed to use the slice to keep the ball low and stretch the big man. Expect the Swiss maestro to put the 6' 8" Janowicz on the move. He will change up pace and speed and spin constantly to keep the big man off balance. At the same time, he will hit a lot of balls right at Janowicz to avoid giving him angles. Janowicz will have to play much steadier than he had to against Tsonga or Gasquet. He can't afford to give away a game with doubles as he did yesterday in the first set against Gasquet. And Roger will absolutely feast on the banquet of poorly chosen and poorly executed drop shots he offered Richard in the first half of yesterday's match. No, Jerzy will have to be on his absolute best behavior today, at least 65% first serves, no more than one or two double-faults per set, judicious use of his drop shots and a reduced number of unforced errors while still playing his aggressive style of play. Most of all, while we want to see his energy and enthusiasm expressed, he must channel it all positively. He can not afford to waste any of it being distracted by discussions, or worse confrontations, with the umpire or linesmen. Just play.

And even if Jerzy can do all that, a healthy and match sharp Federer, even at 31, would find a way to dull the Pole's weapons and render him seemingly helpless; at least enough that he would drop no more than one close set, perhaps a tie-breaker, but still he would win comfortably in the final set. I was trying to explain to one of my young student's last weekend that there are certain things you have to accomplish in the first set of a match, especially a 2 out of 3 set match. Yes it is very important to win that first set, but there is actually something that is more important. At the end of the first set, win or lose, you must know how to win the 2nd set. A healthy and match sharp Federer would be able to do that today. But we don't really know if he is either. I am excited to find out.

don

Great post, don. On a slightly different tack to your last and interesting paragraph, and more in the vein of a underdog winning the first set:

For me, it’s less a question of how to win the second set, more how to start it. When the lesser player steals the first set of the better player, the lesser player must always fight the mental lapse that is sure to follow. This has nothing to do with players being inexperienced (don’t forget tour players are extremely experienced by now), it has much more to do with human nature, human psychology. It happens at all levels in tennis. I experienced it many times.

The euphoria of accomplishment felt when stealing the first set off a player considered better than yourself is intoxicating. You are overcome by the need for a “mental” rest. I cannot tell you how many times I experienced this as an up-and-coming player many years ago. It’s an extremely difficult mental compulsion to fight. Everyone on the forum who has been any kind of a player will know exactly what I mean. No matter how good a player gets, he will always experience the urge to mentally rest having won the first set against someone “perceived” better than himself... because it took so much mental strain to get through that first hurdle.

This is why I have such immense respect for Nadal, Borg and Gonzales. Remarkable match players who never seemed to need that “mental” rest, no matter what or how high the stakes. That mental toughness made Borg and Gonzales so hard to beat in their day...and makes Nadal so hard to beat in his.

[don_budge]

Now it is the semi-finals...pre French Open

Some of the questions have been answered...apparently.

But for me, the forever doubting Thomas I cannot help but wonder. Did Djokovic opt out of a confrontation with Nadal? Therefore escaping the possibility of erasing the slight psychological advantage that he has with his victory in Monte-Carlo. I don't discount this possibility no matter what it looked like for those in the Berdych camp. They may be looking at things with rose tinted glasses.

As for Nadal...there is no doubt his motivations. He is strong, tough and fit for fight. Anyone and anywhere. He played it brilliantly disappearing for a spell...to train and do his meds undetected. He is well rested, pumped up and with every match he steels himself for any show downs in the next few weeks. Federer showed some really good form but now he faces a difficult decision...if he wins he plays the winner of Nadal and Berdych. Neither of which he wants any part of and more importantly he doesn't want to over tax his 31 year old body with all of those miles on it. He'd prefer to save any gas he has in his tank for a match in Paris...why waste it in Rome. Does he opt out against Paire?

I guess you can tell...I don't trust anybody these days. If you do...you are a bigger fool than I am.

[DougEng]

Anyone see that Berdych-Djokovic Match?

Gotta Believe.

Still seats available next to me on the bandwagon. Been riding it for years. I always welcome the company.


Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

Agree. Tomas just needs a break!

I'm awful at tournament predictions but I'm ok at predicting player success. 7-8 years ago I thought Djokovic would be the next player. Here's my limb....

Outside the big 4, Tsonga, Berdych and Del Potro have the best shots. Tsonga is capable of beating anyone but to beat 2 of the big 4 is hard. And he's not young anymore. Berdych is so close too. I think he can get one in but he needs some luck. Like Roddick, bad timing. Del Potro has the advantage of being slightly younger than either. But he's not getting any better since his all-court skills are not at the same level as the others. Stan isn't at the same level of talent although he's trying and peaking.

Jerzy is good but he won't crack the top 5 for another 2 years. When Fed and Nadal go away and he's 26-28 years old, he should get into the top 4-5 and possibly 1-2 major finals (or more?). As good as his movement is, it's not as good as a player 6'1-6'4" or one of the big 4 (5). That's very important since movement is a major part of winning. Raonic is very dangerous but just doesn't hold up in movement. He could get to a finals of Wimbledon or US Open maybe 3 years from now. Maybe even a major title. Nishikori can be a finalist at a major, either Australian or US Open. I was never big on Querrey or Cilic as a major SF.

I think the next great player may be Grigor Dimitrov. He has the pedigree (#1 ITF and junior Wimbledon and US Open Champion). He has the all-court game, the speed, the weapons, he already beat Novak and nearly toppled Murray. He played Murray close all 3 times. He went 3 sets with Nadal bother times he played. His return game could get better and he will get fitter (like Djokovic).
He has not done well at majors...so far. Expect him to be a QF this year or next year to make his break through into the top 10. Because of the big 4 block, he may not win one until 3 years from now when I think he will be top 5 (bumping Federer and maybe Nadal). Dimitrov may be the next multi-major champion.

The best American we will hear of in about 2-3 years will be Alex Domijan. He has a great chance of cracking the top 50 after 18 months on the tour like John Isner, similar in size (6'7"). Despite playing for Virginia, his game is probably already around #100-150 ATP. Alex should surpass Isner and should be a consistent top 10 player 4-5 years from now. His teammate Jermere Jenkins should be a top 50 ATP player (e.g, like Benjamin Becker) but top 20 is hard.

Of course, if my crystal ball was flawless, I would be sitting with millions from Wall Street....

[don_budge]

Nadal vs. ???

Some of the questions have been answered...apparently.

But for me, the forever doubting Thomas I cannot help but wonder. Did Djokovic opt out of a confrontation with Nadal? Therefore escaping the possibility of erasing the slight psychological advantage that he has with his victory in Monte-Carlo. I don't discount this possibility no matter what it looked like for those in the Berdych camp. They may be looking at things with rose tinted glasses.

As for Nadal...there is no doubt his motivations. He is strong, tough and fit for fight. Anyone and anywhere. He played it brilliantly disappearing for a spell...to train and do his meds undetected. He is well rested, pumped up and with every match he steels himself for any show downs in the next few weeks. Federer showed some really good form but now he faces a difficult decision...if he wins he plays the winner of Nadal and Berdych. Neither of which he wants any part of and more importantly he doesn't want to over tax his 31 year old body with all of those miles on it. He'd prefer to save any gas he has in his tank for a match in Paris...why waste it in Rome. Does he opt out against Paire?

I guess you can tell...I don't trust anybody these days. If you do...you are a bigger fool than I am.

Federer has very little to win in a match with Nadal. He is low on the motivation side for his semi-final. I have never seen his opponents play but the outcome will be interesting either way. If Roger loses then I see it as one more indication that professional tennis has gone the way of Big Time Wrestling. If he wins...I am afraid that he will be cat food for Nadal. The crosscourt forehand of Nadal crushed any hope that Berdych may have had for the afternoon. When it wasn't the crosscourt it was down the line. When it wasn't either of these two it was the reverse down the line or the reverse crosscourt. In other words...Berdych was unable to exploit the Nadal backhand because he could not stand up to the punishment of the forehand.

So far Djokovic is the only one to either figure out that you have to take it early or somehow you must play the forehand to get at the backhand. Djokovic is the only one that has the guts to do it and he is the only one to have the strokes to do it. Nadal can really spread it out when he is controlling play on the forehand. Djokovic is the only one to figure out to take a little air out of the balls and slow things down to where he can dictate the pace. To do this he has to attack the forehand initially to move Nadal over to his left just a bit and prevent him from camping out there to hit just forehands. Once he has Nadal leaning left a bit then he starts to work on the backhand while maintaining the pressure on the forehand. Djokovic has the ability to take the Nadal forehand early and to flatten it out...nobody else has demonstrated this talent.

It should be interesting to see how motivated Roger is to get to the finals to meet the Spanish "Raging Bull". "Just give me a stage where this Bull can rage"...Robert DeNiro as Jake Lamotta.