The 2012 Australian Open...

[giancarlo]

Rafael Nadal 1st Serve Direction vs. Federer

Interesting 1st Serve Statistic for Nadal vs. Federer in All Career Matches. See a pattern here?

[don_budge]

Decisions...decisions. The crux of Tennis.

Thankful I didn't watch the match. Same old garbage.

Decisions, you know, can sometimes be difficult. As difficult as pulling teeth. I'm talking about Federer here...and you and me.

Going into Thursday's match with Rafael Nadal I had studied Federer for two matches against Tomic and Del Potro. I took as much information from those two matches as I could, which I believe was considerable, and came up with the possibilities that I wrote about earlier in this thread.

To say that I wanted Federer to win is an understatement. It was almost as if I was playing myself, as if my life depended upon the outcome, defending the concept of traditional or classic tennis against that wrecking machine...instead of watching the match from an old, but warm and cozy, Swedish farmhouse out in the country. In the middle of nowhere. The feeling in my gut was an old familiar feeling, tense, volatile and cursing what I concluded to be the stupidity of the decisions that I was witnessing before me on the television. I reminded myself of the time I was watching the 2011 French Open and I was admonishing "The Man" to keep the ball on the Nadalian backhand and to keep it off the forehand at all costs. My wife can attest to this...for the duration of both matches I repeatedly asked the question, louder and louder, "why are you hitting at the forehand because every time you do you lose the point?". It is almost a foregone conclusion. He failed to figure this out and soon we will see once again if Djokovic will stick to his game plan and attempt to once again dismantle the Spanish Stallion by dissecting him with prejudice on the weaker side.

My study of Federer brought me to one interesting conclusion though. He is most vulnerable to a player such as Nadal for one basic fundamental reason. Nadal is left handed. Roger Federer's tennis game is most suitable for playing against right handed players, although he can adapt his game to lesser left handed opponents that do not possess the lethal forehand capabilities. Let me attempt to explain.

Roger's service strategy did not focus enough or effectively with the goal being to exploit the Nadal backhand. It seemed to me that far too often he was going for the big one up the middle on the deuce side and outside in the advantage court. This is an effective strategy for serving on a right handed backhand but it did not make enough of an impression on Nadal to keep him pinned down on the Federer service game. When Roger is concentrating on pulling Nadal off the court wide to the deuce side he is starting the point off on the right foot. I believe he needed to establish this pattern first before ripping the big one's to the forehand. It appeared to me that he was working in reverse.

Federer's approach game is puzzling to me and I have written posts in the past where I have questioned his approach tactics and his volley technique for that matter. I have suggested that he may be challenged in this regard. I was horrified to see him approach so often with overspin...everytime he did Nadal had more or less a big swing on anything he could chase down, and he chased down everything. Why in the world doesn't he choose to use various adaptations of the Federer Featherer that I wrote about in the Interactive Forum here? It seems to me on most of his approaches he needs to force Nadal to play a shot from a position that he is less than comfortable with...he needs to throw him off balance as much as possible. Using underspin would be a change of pace and perhaps by using the underspin as a surgeon uses their scalpel he could manage to dissect his opponent more effectively. From the position that Federer was in the court he could of had a number of options for instance off the forehand side. He may of slid the ball short and with side spin, he could of laid the ball deep into the corner or he may of used a more delicate approach short and soft to the Nadal backhand. What side spin or underspin may lack in pace it makes up for in deception...you can more easily change the direction of the shot by using more of a volley stroke than opting for the drive. This is from the outdated classic tennis model of course. I wonder what Tony Roche would say to that. Anything would of been better than the forehand drive that he was using up the line to the forehand...he paid the price for his faulty decisions and lack of a clear cut game plan.

Federer's inability to exploit the backhand is certainly a complex problem and to solve a problem of such a magnitude, it takes number one a game plan. If there was a game plan it was not apparent to me...he played virtually the same style and tactics against Tomic and Del Potro. These tactics are fine against the prototypical right handed modern player with a two hand backhand and a strong gripped forehand but against a player out of the mold of Nadal it is essentially a death warrant. I don't know how many times he has brought down the big Swedish Tree, Robin Söderling, using the same tactic...but it doesn't work against Nadal because he is hitting right into the teeth of an eating machine. His forehand is geared to the right handed backhand and his backhand is the same. When he did go at the Nadal backhand he never got into the same kind of trouble that the Nadal forehand presents to him but he lost patience...after one or two, possibly three whacks at the backhand side he inevitably lost patience and made the huge mistake of reverting back to his opponents forehand and he paid the price. Again, it appears to me that underspin may have been at least part of the solution. Certainly if he could move Nadal wide to the forehand with underspin off the backhand it would not give Nadal the kind of ball that he would prefer to swing at. At the same time Federer was not effective at all using his topspin backhand down the line and using some kind of ball that is skidding and staying lower to Nadal's backhand would of neutralized much of his aggressiveness.

From Nadal's side of the match he did everything that he needed to do. I think his serve looked to be more effective and some of the anomalies in his motion seem to have been ironed out. He certainly glued into the Federer backhand. On that note too, it seemed that Roger was solely intent on returning with a drive when some kind of chop or variation of underspin would have been more effective. How many weakly hit overspin return of serve drives did Nadal have to swing at with his massive forehand? Too many as it was. Nadal's backhand appeared to be much more solid as well but I attribute much of this to Federer's inability to understand the problem and come up with an effective solution.

This champion did not make the right decisions that he needed to make if he was to have any chance of defeating his opponent. Even my wife agrees with me...but of course she knows very little about tennis.

[bottle]

"Whinged"! Thanks for the word.

[stotty]

What a semi

Phew!...what a semi. Will Djokovic have anything left for Nadal?

But I would like a great serve volleyer to come along to see what impact it might have on the game. Great as they are, these guys aren't great volleyers...even Federer can't do anything too intricate at the net...he's reasonably good at basic put aways, but not much else.

We need another Mac or Edberg to come along.

[stotty]

Lendl

It's 4-4 in the third set in the Murray/Djokovic semi. Lendl has made a difference already. Murray is more positive in his play and hasn't whinged or cried once yet...must be tiring out there with all those long rallies and in that heat.

[stotty]

You have to hand it to the Spaniard - he's a great match player. He's phenomenal on the big points. He's up there with Pancho Gonzales and Borg as a match player.

I thought the match was stunning. Federer has got to be the best shot maker in the history of tennis. The fluency and genius of the man is amazing. And although I knew what the outcome would be after the end of the second set, I find the pair of them irresistible to watch.

I hope Murray gets through in the other semi because it will make a better game. Djokovic seems to have Nadal in his back pocket and is likely win easily if he makes the final.

Come on MURRAY...

[bman]

Thankful I didn't watch the match. Same old garbage.

[tennis_chiro]

The Federer Forehand

I still think that forehand is good "in spite of" the "wiggle" at the start of the forward swing, not because of it; in fact, I think it is related to those unforced forehand errors.

What a great match! But so frustrating when you find yourself pulling for Roger. Rafa made those gets, but Roger stopped playing the point before the ball bounced twice on more than one occasion. How could he do that?!

Still unbelieveable tennis!!

don
And now I'm supposed to get some sleep!!??!! It's 4:30. And tomorrow, no make that tonite, or no actually tomorrow morning, it could be worse!

[stotty]

History repeats...Nadal is too good no matter how well Federer plays.

[tennis_chiro]

Forehand in the net for the third set. Why does this hurt so much to watch? I love the way both guys play?

don

[stotty]

One set apiece. I knew Nadal would get better and Fed would go off a little. Looking difficult for Roger. If history is to repeat itself, Nadal will be the winner. Nerve racking isn't the word...and we're only watching...pressure on Fed must be phenomenal.

[tennis_chiro]

Emotional roller coaster

Haven't we been on this ride before? Big lead in the first set, cede it back, but win the first set. Then early break in the 2nd and immediately give it back. I've seen this movie. It makes me so nervous.
You guys in Europe are so lucky to have Eurosport. Mats Wilander is excellent. Picks up a lot of small differences.
Don't see any sign of the dodgy knee we saw against Berdych.
This could be an allnighter!
Poor Bottle is going to hurt himself trying to hit those slice forehands Federer made in the first set!
On serve in 2nd, 2-3.

don

[stotty]

Fed goes one set to love up...great point to go 5-3 up in the tie-break. Nadal is going to get better though...

[don_budge]

The Big 4...again. "Eat a Peach"-The Allman Brothers

It's boring guys...it really is. The same old four. The only difference is that they are jockeying a bit more for position.

Let's see what kind of tactics Federer comes up with. Did he learn anything from Djokovic last year? Djokovic comes out strong pounding immediately on the Nadal forehand and then he latches himself onto the backhand side constantly probing for weakness. When Nadal starts leaning just a bit too far on the backhand...Djokovic pounds the ball to the forehand side. Service may be the overall key as tactics dictate over MPH...if Federer should manage to get the first serve percentage up a bit higher and maintain his tactics it will certainly bode well for his fate today.

Djokovic and Murray? I don't know. Who's healthier as Don above me alludes to. Who is the fitter? Mentally the nod goes to Djokovic...so it's Djokovic all things being equal. If Murray should burst through this "resistance and breakthrough point" the final is up for grabs...no matter who it is.

Soon the arch nemesis' will take the stage and I for one hope that the blow is struck for the last remaining remnant of Classic Tennis. I guess that sort of makes me a relic. That's ok. I earned it.

[tennis_chiro]

Federer in a nail biter!

Hourly Weather Forecast for Melbourne Tonight

http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/ASXX0075?begHour=7&begDay=26

It will be a balmy 70 degrees, but the winds are significant. I don't know how the cavernous Laver Arena amplifies or minimizes those winds. Certainly, it has to be different from a normal stadium. And they certainly won't be closing the roof.

My last few notes on 10sballs.com. They've given me a regular spot on their home page.

http://www.10sballs.com/author/don/

I was really glad to see that my prediction that the crowd would be a big factor was dead wrong. I overlooked the fact that the Aussies are too fair for that. I really thought the match was in Berdych's control. But he couldn't finish it off and Nadal got stronger and stronger as the match went on.

Stats from the last two matches of Nadal and Federer
Rafa vs Berdych:

http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/scores/stats/day14/1504ms.html

Roger vs Del Potro:

http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/scores/stats/day14/1503ms.html

Rafa vs Lopez:

http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/scores/stats/day12/1408ms.html

Federer vs Tomic:

http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/scores/stats/day12/1406ms.html

A few more aces for Federer, but a lot higher first serve percentage for Nadal to make up for a second serve that is 10 mph slower.

Fitness:
Roger seems to be 100% although he is not serving quite as fast as usual. He'll need to serve well tonight.
Rafa appears to be struggling just a bit on that knee. But he does seem to be hitting a little deeper with his forehand as the tournament goes on and the occasion calls for it. He's also cultivating his forehand down the line. That could be what makes the difference.

But on balance, especially in light of the way Nadal appears to be struggling physically, I have to stay with Federer.

Gotta take a nap this evening so I can make it through what promises to be an epic. I'm exhausted from staying up past 3 the last couple of nights. Gave up after the first two sets of Nadal/Berdych, but made it all the way through Djokovic/Ferrer. Awesome hitting! I'm still picking Murray, but the show Nole put on last night made me think twice. I just hope his hamstring holds up. And that goes for all of them. You can't maintain this level with injuries.

don