The 2012 Australian Open...

[bottle]

"Whinged"! Thanks for the word.

[don_budge]

Decisions...decisions. The crux of Tennis.

Thankful I didn't watch the match. Same old garbage.

Decisions, you know, can sometimes be difficult. As difficult as pulling teeth. I'm talking about Federer here...and you and me.

Going into Thursday's match with Rafael Nadal I had studied Federer for two matches against Tomic and Del Potro. I took as much information from those two matches as I could, which I believe was considerable, and came up with the possibilities that I wrote about earlier in this thread.

To say that I wanted Federer to win is an understatement. It was almost as if I was playing myself, as if my life depended upon the outcome, defending the concept of traditional or classic tennis against that wrecking machine...instead of watching the match from an old, but warm and cozy, Swedish farmhouse out in the country. In the middle of nowhere. The feeling in my gut was an old familiar feeling, tense, volatile and cursing what I concluded to be the stupidity of the decisions that I was witnessing before me on the television. I reminded myself of the time I was watching the 2011 French Open and I was admonishing "The Man" to keep the ball on the Nadalian backhand and to keep it off the forehand at all costs. My wife can attest to this...for the duration of both matches I repeatedly asked the question, louder and louder, "why are you hitting at the forehand because every time you do you lose the point?". It is almost a foregone conclusion. He failed to figure this out and soon we will see once again if Djokovic will stick to his game plan and attempt to once again dismantle the Spanish Stallion by dissecting him with prejudice on the weaker side.

My study of Federer brought me to one interesting conclusion though. He is most vulnerable to a player such as Nadal for one basic fundamental reason. Nadal is left handed. Roger Federer's tennis game is most suitable for playing against right handed players, although he can adapt his game to lesser left handed opponents that do not possess the lethal forehand capabilities. Let me attempt to explain.

Roger's service strategy did not focus enough or effectively with the goal being to exploit the Nadal backhand. It seemed to me that far too often he was going for the big one up the middle on the deuce side and outside in the advantage court. This is an effective strategy for serving on a right handed backhand but it did not make enough of an impression on Nadal to keep him pinned down on the Federer service game. When Roger is concentrating on pulling Nadal off the court wide to the deuce side he is starting the point off on the right foot. I believe he needed to establish this pattern first before ripping the big one's to the forehand. It appeared to me that he was working in reverse.

Federer's approach game is puzzling to me and I have written posts in the past where I have questioned his approach tactics and his volley technique for that matter. I have suggested that he may be challenged in this regard. I was horrified to see him approach so often with overspin...everytime he did Nadal had more or less a big swing on anything he could chase down, and he chased down everything. Why in the world doesn't he choose to use various adaptations of the Federer Featherer that I wrote about in the Interactive Forum here? It seems to me on most of his approaches he needs to force Nadal to play a shot from a position that he is less than comfortable with...he needs to throw him off balance as much as possible. Using underspin would be a change of pace and perhaps by using the underspin as a surgeon uses their scalpel he could manage to dissect his opponent more effectively. From the position that Federer was in the court he could of had a number of options for instance off the forehand side. He may of slid the ball short and with side spin, he could of laid the ball deep into the corner or he may of used a more delicate approach short and soft to the Nadal backhand. What side spin or underspin may lack in pace it makes up for in deception...you can more easily change the direction of the shot by using more of a volley stroke than opting for the drive. This is from the outdated classic tennis model of course. I wonder what Tony Roche would say to that. Anything would of been better than the forehand drive that he was using up the line to the forehand...he paid the price for his faulty decisions and lack of a clear cut game plan.

Federer's inability to exploit the backhand is certainly a complex problem and to solve a problem of such a magnitude, it takes number one a game plan. If there was a game plan it was not apparent to me...he played virtually the same style and tactics against Tomic and Del Potro. These tactics are fine against the prototypical right handed modern player with a two hand backhand and a strong gripped forehand but against a player out of the mold of Nadal it is essentially a death warrant. I don't know how many times he has brought down the big Swedish Tree, Robin Söderling, using the same tactic...but it doesn't work against Nadal because he is hitting right into the teeth of an eating machine. His forehand is geared to the right handed backhand and his backhand is the same. When he did go at the Nadal backhand he never got into the same kind of trouble that the Nadal forehand presents to him but he lost patience...after one or two, possibly three whacks at the backhand side he inevitably lost patience and made the huge mistake of reverting back to his opponents forehand and he paid the price. Again, it appears to me that underspin may have been at least part of the solution. Certainly if he could move Nadal wide to the forehand with underspin off the backhand it would not give Nadal the kind of ball that he would prefer to swing at. At the same time Federer was not effective at all using his topspin backhand down the line and using some kind of ball that is skidding and staying lower to Nadal's backhand would of neutralized much of his aggressiveness.

From Nadal's side of the match he did everything that he needed to do. I think his serve looked to be more effective and some of the anomalies in his motion seem to have been ironed out. He certainly glued into the Federer backhand. On that note too, it seemed that Roger was solely intent on returning with a drive when some kind of chop or variation of underspin would have been more effective. How many weakly hit overspin return of serve drives did Nadal have to swing at with his massive forehand? Too many as it was. Nadal's backhand appeared to be much more solid as well but I attribute much of this to Federer's inability to understand the problem and come up with an effective solution.

This champion did not make the right decisions that he needed to make if he was to have any chance of defeating his opponent. Even my wife agrees with me...but of course she knows very little about tennis.

[giancarlo]

Rafael Nadal 1st Serve Direction vs. Federer

Interesting 1st Serve Statistic for Nadal vs. Federer in All Career Matches. See a pattern here?

[tennis_chiro]

I give up. I'm agreeing with Stotty!

Hope you guys saw my most recent post at 10sballs.com. I'm taking the Vampire to beat the Werewolf. And I'm fully mindful that my blessing is the Kiss of Death!

http://www.10sballs.com/2012/01/28/the-last-man-standing-novak-djokovic-or-rafael-nadal/

don

[don_budge]

Goldmine...

Interesting 1st Serve Statistic for Nadal vs. Federer in All Career Matches. See a pattern here?

Yes...there seems to be a virtual goldmine on the Federer backhand. You don't happen to have the reverse visual of the Federer first serve do you...giancarlo?

[don_budge]

Dictation...

Even though Djokovic has lost the first set I get the impression that he can dictate the play. That is, when he chooses he can get the game onto the backhand of Nadal. When the game is played in this manner Djokovic seems to have the advantage. But on the other hand, Nadal's forehand continues to be a wrecking ball from just about anywhere on the court. That being said...it looks as if Djokovic plays some very neutral balls just slightly to the right of the center hash mark which does not give Nadal as much angle to play with.

The first set looked to be a bit of cat and mouse from the Djokovic camp...much like the first few rounds of a heavyweight boxing match. Soon we will see what his true intentions are and what his ultimate strategy is to disrupt the Nadalian Freight Train. I think that Djokovic has been playing the forehand of Nadal quite a bit with his true intentions being to open up the backhand side. The old Tilden riddle about disrupting the strength before dissecting the weakness.

I am going to play tennis now. Feeling a bit antsy...I need to be in motion more that I need to be a fan today. Enjoy the match my friends!

[bottle]

A Very Good Day In The Forum!

As for myself, I won't add a post at A NEW YEAR'S SERVE simply because I like the last one presently there-- by Stotty-- so much.

Image vs. words is the perennial rage in American tennis. The anti-verbals, however, forget all too often that words can convey images and images words. So yeah, everything is all mixed up.

Of course, to enjoy the forum properly when there is so much tennis to play and watch one must read extremely fast. don_budge's critique of Roger's decision-making and Don Brosseau's invitation to watch the mixed doubles final as well as the other are ESSENTIAL MATERIAL, it seems to me.

But when reading the Brosseauxian article, http://www.10sballs.com/2012/01/28/t...-rafael-nadal/ , one could easily get sidetracked by the beauty show at Google, Kate Beckinsale, images. Talk about images! So many that finally I had to return to the safe harbor of forum verbiage or tennis TV images, one or the other.

THE MOST PROVOCATIVE OFFHAND FOREHAND STATEMENT EVER! That was going to be my title for a post. The statement of course is Don Brosseau surmising that the little wiggle at the beginning of every forehand caused unforced errors in Federer vs. Nadal Ultimate.

LITTLE WIGGLE? That would be the famous mondo that pervades upper level tennis from short arm through long arm.

And mondo is a complex move entailing simultaneous last instant flapping back of the wrist and perversely backward cranking of the forearm.

The trickled down version has no doubt made the miserable forehand of every mentally retarded, physically impaired and morally flawed hacker even worse.

One famous instructor said he never would teach mondo to a beginner. Which means he never would have taught it to Roger Federer since tennis players at any level all were and remain eternal beginners.

Me, I look forward to using the new intelligence applied to new experiments on the forehand side. If one got the wrist and forearm bidnis out of the way one could perhaps use reverse action to flap the whole arm back in more pure, uncluttered method, straight arm division.

Or not depending on whim thus opening up new possibilities.

[giancarlo]

Yes...there seems to be a virtual goldmine on the Federer backhand. You don't happen to have the reverse visual of the Federer first serve do you...giancarlo?

I will look for it.

[stotty]

Puzzled

I missed most of the final. Had a full day's work instead. I checked in to read don_budge's latest update of the game. I then sat down watched the tail end of the 4th set but had to leave just after Nadal won the tie-break.

When don_budge said Djokovic looked like he could dictate the rallies, he was dead right. Nadal somehow scrapped through that 4th set when Djokovic looked like the better player. Djokovic has Nadal on a piece of string at times...makes it look so easy to dissect his game.

I recorded the match and can't wait to watch it in full. I had Djokovic down to win in three...what happened?

[don_budge]

Heavyweight Boxing...and Modern Tennis

My analogies are more and more frequently comparing the modern game of tennis to boxing and there was no better example of that than the six hour plus, five set final played out in Melbourne, Australia Sunday well into the night down under. Talk about a "Journey to the End of the Night"...Ferdinand Celine style.

I watched the first set myself, Stotty and felt that even though Djokovic had lost that he was in command of the match. I always know what the score is...well with women sometimes it is hard to know, at least until they announce it. But from my point of view Djokovic was dictating play...not by a wide margin mind you because the Spanish Stallion Nadal has made some rather noticeable adjustments in his play in order to due battle with his Serbian nemesis...and he used these in good stead to vanquish Mr. Federer in the semifinals. I left after the first set...went and played a bit myself, did a bit of shopping on the way home, drove home came in and sat down and watched the entire fifth set. Happy as hell that I did not sit there and watch the whole thing.

The biggest and most noticeable improvement in the Nadalian repertoire appears to be his service...not only the motion but in his tactics as well. But of course technique and tactics always go hand in hand, don't they? He kept Federer pinned down in the backhand corner in both the deuce and the ad courts throwing in the occasional bomb to the forehand side just to keep him honest. This he used to the most obvious advantage on the Federer backhand as Roger tried to drive his backhand return throughout the match when he should of eventually at least tried to return with some kind of slicing motion...anything to get the ball deeper in the court because Nadal was having a feast on his short and weak returns. This tactic against Djokovic did not have the same disarming results because of the inherent ability to drive the two handed backhand on the return but still Nadal was serving very capably right till the end of the match. If he wasn't overwhelming Djokovic, he was at least keeping him a bit off balance.

The Nadal backhand appears to of been beefed up as well and if my imagination is not playing tricks on me, as it frequently does, his slice also seemed to find the deeper reaches of the court as well. His two handed version was being hammered even harder than I ever recall and it was no trip to the beach on the backhand of Nadal this week...but that being said it was a better location than anything on the forehand which was simply monstrous. Even in the fifth set, after playing at break neck speed for over six hours he was still hammering winners from everywhere. Instead of calling him a werewolf...let's call him a Spanish Thor. The look on his face after all of the strenuous effort over the course of the long match was one of fire and passion...and the flame was never fully extinguished even after the match point was securely in the pocket of the Serbian Grim Reaper...he with the lethal scythe.

As far as it being a heavyweight bout...none of you will argue with me there. Djokovic appeared to be on the ropes in the fifth...he was being pounded by the Nadal serve and forehand one two combination for the entire fifth set...the proverbial fifteenth round. He looked dazed and confused...only to manage to pull himself together to hold serve time and time again and to break back from an early break. That was no act...he was on emergency management control and just trying to hang around for the final bell for a decision in his favor, quite possible he was trying to hang on for the tiebreaker. His hopes for a knockout were fading with his energy and his only hope was to hang around to the end and position himself for a swing at a match point. He got his wish in the final game and concluded the whole thing with a winner to the Nadal forehand. Game, set and match!

Nadal was heard to be making comments that Djokovic was putting on some kind of act as if he wasn't truly exhausted from the tennis...which is sort of ludicrous as they both required chairs after the officials noticed that both player would conceivably pass out in front of the adoring fans...before their eyes. Fortunately they both remained conscious and were able to pick up their huge checks...which required further Herculean effort as well I am sure.

[bottle]

I liked the timing of the bringing of the chairs. I felt both guys required the chairs not only for exhaustion but because the opening speeches were so dull. If there still are any prison ships in the harbor that's where those first two speakers should go.

[stotty]

Matts Wilander's commentary during the final was insightful. He said that when Nadal rallies with Djokovic there comes a point during a rally when Nadal cannot win it, and Nadal has to sense this and be looking to end the rally before crossing that threshold. I thought this was a very interesting observation from Matts. When you watch Nadal and Djokovic rally, you can see exactly what he means...it happens all the time.

As Matts said, Nadal has to battle his instincts and play outside his comfort zone. It's not easy for Nadal but he simply has to do it if he is to have any chance of turning the tables on Djokovic.

[gsheiner]

Brilliant. I wish I had been able to listen to Mats. In North America we have Pmac and Darren Cahill who are pretty good but aren't as willing, I think, to ruffle feathers.

To me, Nadal is beaten in a point when he has to hit his slice backhand. Occasionally, he can get away with one but almost never with two in a row.When he returns serve in the deuce court with a slice backhand , he is done immediately. If I were Uncle Toni, I would ban slice backhands .

[tennis_chiro]

You can get Mats if you want him; thought the match was fabulous

Just about anyone who has a broadband connection can get the feed from Eurosport if you are willing to surf around a little bit. I have the feeling we are not really supposed to be able to get it, but by going to the streaming video on LiveScoreHunter.com you get all kinds of feeds including Eurosport that had Mats. I was also getting Fred Stolle off Channel 7, Australia's sports channel as well. It seems the trick is to go to full screen mode after the initial 30 seconds of commercials releases the screen. Then you don't get interrupted quite as much. Sometimes there seems to be a bit of a problem, but I watched almost the whole Australian Open this way. You do have to fool around a little bit to find a feed that works for you, but most of the time it was great. In the fifth set, I had to run two laptops simultaneously off my wifi and one or the other was constantly freezing up momentarily, but I would just switch may gaze from one laptop to the other and I had one on the large monitor. And Mats definitely is excellent. Frew McMillan is a little less outlandish in what he has to say, but nevertheless, very perceptive.

I thought the match was amazing. I'm certainly one of the voices that misses serve and volley tennis, but there was nothing boring about this match. It took them a little while to shake off the stiffness from their semifinal efforts, but I felt the drama built and built and the level of play actually went up as the match went on despite their obvious fatigue. I was watching in the middle of the night and all through the night until early morning and found it riveting.

I think my last two articles for 10sballs.com about how the body's energy systems get you through a long match were apropos and even my comments about picking the vampire over the werewolf were on the money. In the end, Djokovic's better footwork, balance and technique served him well and got the better of Nadal's pure physicality. We wonder what more Nadal can do, but how much closer could he get without actually winning and there definitely are things he can do better. I can't imagine how tough it must be for him to go back to work after a loss like that, but I would sit him down and say, "Look how close you are. And there is still a lot of room to improve. Get back to the serve action of 2010 and especially improve the second serve. The forehand was better, but it has to be deeper more often and you have to play more balls closer to the baseline. Improve the forehand down the line a little more. Keep fighting and running down those passing shots, but you can still get better! You made a lot of progress, but there is still more to do." I expect that is what Uncle Toni is telling him, (except for the part about the serve which they don't seem to want to acknowledge).

I hate to hear all the accusations about PED's. It's very hard to prove a negative. Judging by Murray's complaints about testing after his match in the semis, they are getting tested all the time. Like they say, just because someone is paranoid doesn't mean someone isn't out to get him. But the old innocent until proven guilty seems to have gone by the wayside for an awful lot of people. It seems to me it would be very valuable(tabloids, etc.) for someone who could prove the positive (i.e. that there was evidence that they were using PED's, etc.) and there are plenty of people trying to prove that for that reason in addition to all the official testing that is going on. If someone does come up with that proof, well, there will be an awful lot of disappointed people in the world. In the meantime, I'm really proud to be associated with a sport that can present such a wonderful display of sportsmanship, athleticism, commitment and the willingness to fight and fight and keep fighting until the very last point and never giving up.

don

[tennis_chiro]

My comments and charting of the match

I also kept some notes as I charted the entire match. Some of you are as anal as I am and might enjoy the listing of where the points were won and lost as well as which first serves were made. I did the following note for 10sballs. If you link to the charted sets you can flip through all the matches I charted for the ATP World Tour Finals as well.

Here's the note:

10sChiro on Djokovic vs Nadal, Australian Open Final, 2012

There's not much more I can say about this match that hasn't already been said. I thought it was absolutely amazing. I stayed up all night and they never once lost my attention. The suspense and drama built as the match went on and the level of play actually improved when it seemed they should barely have been able to stand.

I took some notes as the match went on and charted first serves and how the points were determined. You may find it interesting to go back and look at where just the slightest change (just one point) could have made a huge difference in the outcome of the match. Nadal was up a set and within a point of coming back from 2-5 down to 5-5 in the second set and he Djokovic forced an error off his forehand. In the fifth set, Nadal was up 4-2, 30/15 and he made his first serve only to see that point and the next two go against him. It's also interesting to see how many more points Nadal was having to play on his service games, where the first serve seemed to make a difference and where it didn't. The links to my charts are listed at the end of these notes.

10sChiro

1st Set
Both working wide serves and in/out Fh winner, Nadal to Ad court, Djokovic to the Deuce court

Great get and recovery led to 1st break for Nadal at 2-2

A lot of unforced errors…4-3, 60/70, Forehand unforced error for break

Nadal hitting deeper forehands and some serves in 120's

5-5, 30/30: Nadal forehand DTL to force forehand error; 30/40: Backhand error for Djokovic for the break

6-5: 2 error for Nole after getting back from 40/15 to deuce.

Set to Nadal, 7-5.

2nd Set
good point @0-1, 30/40 to get to deuce

1-1. 1st point is a great point for Djokovic
1-1, 30/15: Forehand error for Nole is a sign of fatigue
Nadal's avg serve so far is 114mph which is 5MPH faster than last 2 matches

1-2, 0/0: Nole commands point, but Rafa rules next 2 for 30/15
1-2, 30/40: Nole just 1/7 on break points, but breaks at 30/40 with forehand volley winner for 3-1

3-1: Backhand winner Nadal @30/15, but Forehand winner Djokovic at 30/30

Routine back and forth to 2-5

2-5, 30/30: Wide serve from Nadal and short slice takes it to 40/30
50/40: Backhand return winner from Djokovic
50/50: Forehand return forces forehand error from Nadal, but he eventually holds

5-3, 40/15: Nadal attacks and wins 4 points in a row to get back on serve. Novak must be tired!

4-5, 40/40: Novak got to deuce on 3 Nadal forehand errors. Djokovic guesses and passes for break point with a Backhand winner. Nadal double faults the set away! He had 40/15 to take the set to 5-5. Once Nadal gave him the chance with those forehand errors, Djokovic stepped up and took his chances to pressure Nadal at this critical juncture.

3rd Set
Energy appears up for both players as 3rd set begins. Djokovic starts off with love game and 4 first serves.

0=1: Djokovic looking tougher now, but Nadal holds him off in a long game. Both hitting bigger now.

1-1: Game starts off with a big rally and Djokovic ends it with a backhand winner down the line. Play is now much more aggressive from both.

1-2: Djokovic wrests break from Nadal with persistent attack. Nadal made 3 of 6 first serves but lost all three of those points!

3-1: Djokovic holds at love with 4 first serves.

1-4, 0/0: Novak approaches and makes Forehand winner. Nadal plays two aggressive points, making 1st serves for 30/15.
30/15: Djokovic attacks 2nd serve again and forces forehand error from Nadal.
Forehand drop shot winner for Djokovic at 30/30 but Nadal pulls out game for 4-2 with three Djokovic errors.

Nadal only winning 20% of backcourt rally points!!

Djokovic holds at love again and at 2-5, Nadal makes 2 unforced errors to get to 0/30; then another backhand error to 0/40. Djokovic goes for the forehand winner for the set and makes it.

Winners/errors: Djokovic - 11/7, Nadal 2/10. Djokovic serve % up to 72%.

4th Set
0-0, 0/15: Djokovic serving - huge point won by Nadal with drop shot winner
40/30: Good point for Nadal takes it back to deuce. Level of play is rising.
Djokovic makes 7/8 first serves to get to second deuce. Ends up making 7/10 in game, losing 4/7 on 1st serve but winning all 2nd serve points for hold.

0-1, 0/0: Long rally and backhand winner for Nadal.
30/15: backhand overhit error for Nadal
40/40: overhead winner for Nadal and then an Ace for the hold

1-1; Novak holds at love with 2 aces and a service winner.

1-2: 5/5 1st serves and Nadal holds at 15

2-2: 5/6 first serves and holds with no errors despite two forehand winners by Nadal

2-3, 30/30: Great forehand for Nadal after double fault and backhand error to get the ad and hold with a backhand winner

3-4: Nadal fights back from 0-40 down with two service winners, backhand winner down the line, another service winner, an ace and another service winner

4-4: 15 minute rain delay to close the roof. Djokovic comes back and misses 3/4 first serves but still holds at love!

4-5: Nadal holds making 3/6 first serves

5-5: Djokovic holds making 3/6 first serves

5-6: Nadal holds at love

TieBreaker
Traded minibreaks on 5th and 6th points, and 7th and 9th points to get to 5-5. Nadal got a service winner for the first set point and returned the first serve and drew an error from Djokovic to make it 2 sets apiece. Djokovic looking pretty tired.

5th Set
(My comments got reduced here, so I'm going by my chart. I was struggling to keep the streaming video working as it was fritzing on one computer and then the other and I was jumping back and forth between feeds on LiveScoreHunter.com)

Nadal started off strong making 5/6 first serves although he did double at 40/15. Finisthe game with an ace.

Djokovic answered with hold at 15.

At 2-2 I noted again that Djokovic was looking really tired. Although he made 4/6 first serves at 2-3, he got broken at 30 making a lot of errors.

4-2: Novak breaks back successfully attacking 2nd serves on 3 of 4 points he won; so back on serve, 3-4 in the fifth.

3-4: Novak misses a backhand on the first point, but still manages to hold at 15 as Nadal misses a forehand, then a 2nd serve backhand return, another backhand and another 2nd serve backhand return.

4-4: Nadal makes 8/10 first serves and survives Djokovic's forehand return winner at 40/30 followed by Nadal's backhand error at deuce. Nadal makes a service winner at ad out and then a forehand volley drop shot winner for game point. Djokovic misses the 1st serve return with his backhand.

4-5: Djokovic served a strong game to get to 5-5.

5-5: Nadal made just half of his 8 first serves and none in the last three points. Nadal gave Djokovic two points with forehand errors on points where he did make the first serve and three of the four second serve points to get the break.

5-6: Nadal got a forehand error from Djokovic at 30/0 and then two more second serve points including an adventurous move up to the net for an overhead at 30/15 to get one break point chance. Djokovic forced a forehand error and finished the Spaniard off.

If you want to see my point by point charting of the match, you can find those charts here. If you scroll over the image, you'll get the option to rotate it so you can see it correctly and also to magnify it. You can also page back and forth through the different charts right there on imageshack. I hope you enjoy it!

1st Set:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/9/rafanoleoz2012set1.jpg/

2nd Set:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/406/rafanoleoz2012set2.jpg/

3rd Set:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/526/rafanoleoz2012set3.jpg/

4th Set:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/6/rafanoleoz2012set4.jpg/

5th Set:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/580/rafanoleoz2012set5.jpg/