The 2012 Australian Open...

[bottle]

If it doesn't happen, I won't say anything, but if it does, don_budge, you'll deserve some credit for outlining some of the determining factors. You deserve credit in any case for being predictive! Contrast with my own caution here. Dare I eat a peach?

[bman]

Nadal will win. I've had my hopes dashed too many times to expect a Federer win. He teases us with these wins at the year-end tournament, but 3 out of 5 sets outdoors is another animal. We've seen this story too many times.

[lobndropshot]

I don't care who wins. Either way I will be up with a cold 4 pack of Red Bull and a note pad. I just hope the match doesn't end with an injury. Go epic 5 setter!

[tennis_chiro]

Federer in a nail biter!

Hourly Weather Forecast for Melbourne Tonight

http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/ASXX0075?begHour=7&begDay=26

It will be a balmy 70 degrees, but the winds are significant. I don't know how the cavernous Laver Arena amplifies or minimizes those winds. Certainly, it has to be different from a normal stadium. And they certainly won't be closing the roof.

My last few notes on 10sballs.com. They've given me a regular spot on their home page.

http://www.10sballs.com/author/don/

I was really glad to see that my prediction that the crowd would be a big factor was dead wrong. I overlooked the fact that the Aussies are too fair for that. I really thought the match was in Berdych's control. But he couldn't finish it off and Nadal got stronger and stronger as the match went on.

Stats from the last two matches of Nadal and Federer
Rafa vs Berdych:

http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/scores/stats/day14/1504ms.html

Roger vs Del Potro:

http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/scores/stats/day14/1503ms.html

Rafa vs Lopez:

http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/scores/stats/day12/1408ms.html

Federer vs Tomic:

http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/scores/stats/day12/1406ms.html

A few more aces for Federer, but a lot higher first serve percentage for Nadal to make up for a second serve that is 10 mph slower.

Fitness:
Roger seems to be 100% although he is not serving quite as fast as usual. He'll need to serve well tonight.
Rafa appears to be struggling just a bit on that knee. But he does seem to be hitting a little deeper with his forehand as the tournament goes on and the occasion calls for it. He's also cultivating his forehand down the line. That could be what makes the difference.

But on balance, especially in light of the way Nadal appears to be struggling physically, I have to stay with Federer.

Gotta take a nap this evening so I can make it through what promises to be an epic. I'm exhausted from staying up past 3 the last couple of nights. Gave up after the first two sets of Nadal/Berdych, but made it all the way through Djokovic/Ferrer. Awesome hitting! I'm still picking Murray, but the show Nole put on last night made me think twice. I just hope his hamstring holds up. And that goes for all of them. You can't maintain this level with injuries.

don

[don_budge]

The Big 4...again. "Eat a Peach"-The Allman Brothers

It's boring guys...it really is. The same old four. The only difference is that they are jockeying a bit more for position.

Let's see what kind of tactics Federer comes up with. Did he learn anything from Djokovic last year? Djokovic comes out strong pounding immediately on the Nadal forehand and then he latches himself onto the backhand side constantly probing for weakness. When Nadal starts leaning just a bit too far on the backhand...Djokovic pounds the ball to the forehand side. Service may be the overall key as tactics dictate over MPH...if Federer should manage to get the first serve percentage up a bit higher and maintain his tactics it will certainly bode well for his fate today.

Djokovic and Murray? I don't know. Who's healthier as Don above me alludes to. Who is the fitter? Mentally the nod goes to Djokovic...so it's Djokovic all things being equal. If Murray should burst through this "resistance and breakthrough point" the final is up for grabs...no matter who it is.

Soon the arch nemesis' will take the stage and I for one hope that the blow is struck for the last remaining remnant of Classic Tennis. I guess that sort of makes me a relic. That's ok. I earned it.

[stotty]

Fed goes one set to love up...great point to go 5-3 up in the tie-break. Nadal is going to get better though...

[tennis_chiro]

Emotional roller coaster

Haven't we been on this ride before? Big lead in the first set, cede it back, but win the first set. Then early break in the 2nd and immediately give it back. I've seen this movie. It makes me so nervous.
You guys in Europe are so lucky to have Eurosport. Mats Wilander is excellent. Picks up a lot of small differences.
Don't see any sign of the dodgy knee we saw against Berdych.
This could be an allnighter!
Poor Bottle is going to hurt himself trying to hit those slice forehands Federer made in the first set!
On serve in 2nd, 2-3.

don

[stotty]

One set apiece. I knew Nadal would get better and Fed would go off a little. Looking difficult for Roger. If history is to repeat itself, Nadal will be the winner. Nerve racking isn't the word...and we're only watching...pressure on Fed must be phenomenal.

[tennis_chiro]

Forehand in the net for the third set. Why does this hurt so much to watch? I love the way both guys play?

don

[stotty]

History repeats...Nadal is too good no matter how well Federer plays.

[tennis_chiro]

The Federer Forehand

I still think that forehand is good "in spite of" the "wiggle" at the start of the forward swing, not because of it; in fact, I think it is related to those unforced forehand errors.

What a great match! But so frustrating when you find yourself pulling for Roger. Rafa made those gets, but Roger stopped playing the point before the ball bounced twice on more than one occasion. How could he do that?!

Still unbelieveable tennis!!

don
And now I'm supposed to get some sleep!!??!! It's 4:30. And tomorrow, no make that tonite, or no actually tomorrow morning, it could be worse!

[bman]

Thankful I didn't watch the match. Same old garbage.

[stotty]

You have to hand it to the Spaniard - he's a great match player. He's phenomenal on the big points. He's up there with Pancho Gonzales and Borg as a match player.

I thought the match was stunning. Federer has got to be the best shot maker in the history of tennis. The fluency and genius of the man is amazing. And although I knew what the outcome would be after the end of the second set, I find the pair of them irresistible to watch.

I hope Murray gets through in the other semi because it will make a better game. Djokovic seems to have Nadal in his back pocket and is likely win easily if he makes the final.

Come on MURRAY...

[stotty]

Lendl

It's 4-4 in the third set in the Murray/Djokovic semi. Lendl has made a difference already. Murray is more positive in his play and hasn't whinged or cried once yet...must be tiring out there with all those long rallies and in that heat.

[stotty]

What a semi

Phew!...what a semi. Will Djokovic have anything left for Nadal?

But I would like a great serve volleyer to come along to see what impact it might have on the game. Great as they are, these guys aren't great volleyers...even Federer can't do anything too intricate at the net...he's reasonably good at basic put aways, but not much else.

We need another Mac or Edberg to come along.