How Djokovic Dominates Nadal

[johnyandell]

Share your thought's on Craig O'Shannessy's article "How Djokovic Dominates Nadal".

[ClassicStrokes]

This is a great article. Watching most of the announcers it's like they aren't paying attention. Djokovic was doing something different. This is the best explanation of what that was that I have seen so far and I like the fact that there are some numbers involved.

[jfd001]

Think the key to Rafa's 2011 US Open loss was his poor serving.

What I saw was in the first two sets, Novak was 120+ on 1st and in the 90's on the second; Rafa 105/80

in the 3rd set after Novak strained his back his service speed went down some. Rafa tried to hit some of big serves but did not get them in and went back to spinning them in.

Though average speeds got closer in the last two sets you have to see the first two sets to see how badly Rafa served and got behind 2-0, too deep to catch up.

It is especially evident when compared to his 2010 win against Novak

here are the stats for 2010 Rafa in 4:

first service points won 73%, second 57%

compare to 2011: 52% and 42%.

This is on the fastest surface in the Slams? He struggled in almost every service game.

I think Rafa held his own in the long rallies, Novak had more winners but also more unforced errors 55 and 51 compared to Rafa's 32 and 37.

In 2010, he had improved his serve, seemed to pick up 10 or so MPH but in 2011 he was down again:

Average speeds 1st and 2nd
2010 116/88
2011 107/81

Novak returns too well to give him 80 mph serves!

[jimlosaltos]

Starts with Djoko's Return

Share your thought's on Craig O'Shannessy's article "How Djokovic Dominates Nadal".

Good article.

One comment: IMHO it all starts with Djokovic's service return. Against Nadal, Djokovic is now hitting his returns firmly up the middle. It's a safe shot, with margin, but hit firmly enough that Nadal can't attack it.

This contrasts with most everyone else, incl Federer, who try to immediately get to Nadal's backhand. By hitting up the middle, Djokovic keeps Nadal out of his backhand corner, making it harder for Rafa to get an opportunity to his hit nuclear inside-out forehand.

Once Djoko can get Nadal in a neutral position, he then plays old-fashioned V-tennis, running him from side to side, which tends to push Rafa back, making the returns more defensive and letting Djokovic hold the baseline and dictate.

but it all starts with that firm, not high-margin service return up the middle, a shot by the way, that wouldn't do very well against, say, Berdych or Fed who would circle and rip forehands.

[DougEng]

Nole over Rafa

Nole dominates since he is relentless. He's the only player who runs with Nadal and can hurt him. Ferrer and Simon can run but can't hurt him. Against dangerous players, Rafa usually has an out such as hitting heavy to Federer's backhand. Nole also has greater shot tolerance than Federer, Delpo, Tsonga, etc. He doesn't have that neutral hole. If Rafa hits to Fed's backhand, he can force a neutral shot. Instead, Nole attacks back at every spot which frustrates Rafa. Big hitters damage Rafa unless he can find a neutral or defensive gap. Nole also has better angles than Federer...who almost can hit through Nadal but can't quite as well as Soderling or Delpo unless it's indoors. Simple but there's no breathing room.

[stotty]

Nole dominates since he is relentless. He's the only player who runs with Nadal and can hurt him. Ferrer and Simon can run but can't hurt him. Against dangerous players, Rafa usually has an out such as hitting heavy to Federer's backhand. Nole also has greater shot tolerance than Federer, Delpo, Tsonga, etc. He doesn't have that neutral hole. If Rafa hits to Fed's backhand, he can force a neutral shot. Instead, Nole attacks back at every spot which frustrates Rafa. Big hitters damage Rafa unless he can find a neutral or defensive gap. Nole also has better angles than Federer...who almost can hit through Nadal but can't quite as well as Soderling or Delpo unless it's indoors. Simple but there's no breathing room.

Interesting comment about shot tolerance. Djokovic does look like he can rally longer than Nadal and more easily. I guess the bottom line is that you need a very good backhand to even attempt to carry out Djokovic-style tactics against Nadal. Who else has a backhand that good? Murray is the only one I can think of.

I wonder even if Nadal hadn't lost his way with his newly developed serve...would it help? I still think Djokovic would return even his biggest serves back comfortably.

[jfd001]

its the Serve!

Novak has a great return of serve for sure but when he is returning against a
much better serve: Roger's, he lost in the French and was on the very brink against him at the Open.

All the same for Novak's great rallying ability and all court play, 30 yr old, Roger, with his effective serve and without the two hand backhand that serves Novak and Rafa so well, gives him fits even on clay.
Rafa can still win on clay with spinning his 1st serve in at 105mph against almost anyone (not Novak) as he did this past weekend but not indoors nor on hard courts.

At the Open, fastest surface of the Slams, Rafa needs to serve like he did in 2010.
Maybe he needs another session with Borras!

[jimlosaltos]

Rafa "big" serve back fired against Nole

Interesting comment about shot tolerance. Djokovic does look like he can rally longer than Nadal and more easily. I guess the bottom line is that you need a very good backhand to even attempt to carry out Djokovic-style tactics against Nadal. Who else has a backhand that good? Murray is the only one I can think of.

I wonder even if Nadal hadn't lost his way with his newly developed serve...would it help? I still think Djokovic would return even his biggest serves back comfortably.

I watched Nadal lose to Djokovic at the BNP Indian Wells earlier this year.

He went very big on his serve and it backfired. No free points, lower first serve percentage.

I believe that was the last time Rafa went for over 130 mph serves, so that match may have been a turning point. He decided it wasn't worth it and went back to the super-heavy slice that got him to number one in the world.

[DougEng]

Interesting comment about shot tolerance. Djokovic does look like he can rally longer than Nadal and more easily. I guess the bottom line is that you need a very good backhand to even attempt to carry out Djokovic-style tactics against Nadal. Who else has a backhand that good? Murray is the only one I can think of.

I wonder even if Nadal hadn't lost his way with his newly developed serve...would it help? I still think Djokovic would return even his biggest serves back comfortably.

Yes, Murray has the game. Andy Murray just needs to develop mentally. He has all the tools although maybe also a bit better shot tolerance. He feels tactics has to change even if it means reacting (playing defensively). In that respect, he's closer to Federer than Nadal, Djokovic, or Ferrer. Yes, again on his serve. he got hot with it and then lost a bit of confidence thinking he could win without it, but the older he gets, the more offense he needs. Rafa needs to realize that for the next 3-4 years, he'll still need to step up some things to stay in the top 3. He may have a hard time staying there after 2012-13.

[tennis_chiro]

Murray may be the one to watch in 2012

Yes, Murray has the game. Andy Murray just needs to develop mentally. He has all the tools although maybe also a bit better shot tolerance. He feels tactics has to change even if it means reacting (playing defensively). In that respect, he's closer to Federer than Nadal, Djokovic, or Ferrer. Yes, again on his serve. he got hot with it and then lost a bit of confidence thinking he could win without it, but the older he gets, the more offense he needs. Rafa needs to realize that for the next 3-4 years, he'll still need to step up some things to stay in the top 3. He may have a hard time staying there after 2012-13.

Doug,
I loved your analysis in Post #5 above, but I wonder if you saw the Tokyo final. Murray put on an unbelievable display. I really think he found a new level for him and at that level he may be even further along than the best of Djokovic in 2011. I don't think his injuries at the end of the year were as much fatigue as the problems for Nadal, Djokovic and even Berdych; but he got a little over-eager asking for a wildcard in Basel and trying to extend his Asian winning streak to the Continent.
Furthermore, I really think Rafa must make some improvements if he is to stay in the top 3 even in 2012. Murray and Djokovic have figured out how to play him and can handle the high backhand. Federer is hitting his backhand much better. Berdych, Tsonga, Delpotro and even Soderling are learning to hit the backhand down the line and their height minimizes the difficulty presented by Rafa's topspin forehand to their backhand. I think they are all about to get better. Roger appears ready to hold on for at least another year. I think you will see more losses from the top three to other players in the top ten than we have seen since Roger made his ascendancy to the top position in 2004.

don

[jfd001]

Rafa: how he got to #1?

Novak can return well even against the best servers, but to what degree?
Against Roger's great serve he has had more trouble than against Rafa 100 mph spin serve and virtually no trouble against his 80 mph second serve. Witness the 2011 SF, Roger needed one more big serve to knock Novak out.

What Rafa made him #1 was his spectacular year in 2010 and it was his big serve that enabled him to win big on hard courts!

He will not get back there with his current service game.
Even on clay, DP, exhausted after 4:30 hour match on Friday, broke Rafa's serve 8 times on Sunday in Spain.