Nadal Vs Federer

[llll]

watched both semis nadal sure had a workout. will he be in rogers head after wimby. fed is healthy and seems in fine form. i greatly admire his style of play and hope he wins. for me too close to call though . your thoughts?

[airforce1]

I'm guessing that Nadal didn't have to work hard enough during the whole Oz open for that to be a major factor. I don't think he will be gassed as he was in the US open against Murry. there he seemed to be worn slap out.

Fed does seem to be in better shape this year, and also seems to have found that balance in his game, where he does not go for so much early in the points, nearly as often. He looks more comfy hitting 3-5 shots before pulling the trigger. Last 2 rounds were pretty clean and his serving looked better than ever to me.

All that said, there is no doubt that Nadal is in his head,
and for good reason.
He always struggles with Nadal.
Rafa just doesn't give up cheap points very often.
Fed's game usually gets him alot of those cheap forced errors from his opponent. Nadal also has developed some excellent patterns to work off shots to his corners, where his opponents just didn't do enough with it. Pulled wide, he can really use the opened angles and your pace, back against you.

My prediction is that it comes down to how often Roger gets passed in transition. Much like what Narbug was describing, if Fed approaches with power, into "step & hit" situations and can't get thru no mans land, he will then have his power turned against him as he is caught in a tough to defend/attack area of the court. Nadal will dominate this matchup.

If Roger will stay aggressive, but patient and hit at him thru the middle of the court,
then he can approach in situations where he uses a "hit away" strategy off the right balls. This will allow him to gain a much better tactical position closer to net and on balance, while Nadal is running down the "hit away" shot. If Rafa is running, then Roger can have time to close.
also Rafa will have less of Fed's power to reflect back at him for the pass after chasing it down.

I would like to see Fed use his inside out FH out wide to Nadal's FH to pull him out, then use a softer skidding approach to the BH wide. With his serving advantage and the hard court, I think Fed can win in this way.

[oliensis]

Good post, Airforce. I agree w/ the lion's share of what you wrote. W/ these clarifications:

--I think the mid-court ball for Roger is the key. I think that's what you mean by the "hit-away" ball. I know he prefers to go inside out w/ this shot, as it's usually to the opponent's backhand. But this is the shot on which he's got to have Nadal uncertain, so he's got to be able to go both ways effectively with it in order to make the court 2x as hard to defend for Nadal. Interestingly, this is the shot on which he lost match point at Wimbledon...the short mid-court ball...he himself described his indecision about which way to go w/ that shot...he went to the Nadal backhand, but found the middle of the net with it.

--On a related note, I would love to see Federer step in and take the Nadal cross-court forehand (hit to F's backhand) very early on the rise and down the line. It' a loopy shot most of the time, with sidespin as well as topspin. Taking that shot very early on the rise DTL is a difficult but do-able option...much better than trying to take it neck-high cross-court.

--Seems to me that in general what Federer does so brilliantly is take time away from the oppoent: watch on youtube some of Fed's great US Open matches against Agassi. They both crush the ball, but Fed takes time away even better than Agassi. Difference between Ag. and Nadal, though, is that Ag.'s ball is waist-high for Fed, w/ very little vertical component to its trajectory. Nadal's ball, you have to be even earlier in recognizing the mid-court ball, it has a large vertical component in trajectory, and if you're not careful you have to hit it neck-high...also that Nadal moves so much better than Ag. (or anyone).

-Verdasco had some success drawing Nadal very wide on the ad-court serve. Of course V is a lefty, so it's easier to do that than for Fed (rightie). But, Fed does have a great wide kick serve, and following that serve, the whole court is open to attack the Nadal backhand. So, let's hope he mixes it in there w/ the down-the-T serve in the add court--and that he can force Nadal into slicing defensively w/ the backhand on the T serve.

--Seems that the Nadal backhand has not been quite as good since Wimbledon, at which it was awesome.

--Also seems the Nadal has, in the last 2 rounds, abandoned the flatter forehand, which he was hitting earlier in the tournament.

My $0.02. FWIW, which may be only half of that...

PS: I guess I think of these F vs. N matchups from F's side and not from N's side because I try to play more like F does than like N (rightie, one-handed BH, etc.) ...not that I'm in the same universe, but that's where the effort goes, even if relatively lamely. I would like to hear what people think about how N should approach the match.

[jasonfrausto]

Great observations in each of the posts, but for me it comes down to court speed and the bounce. This court plays much slower than the courts at the US Open which favors the defender and not the attacker. That gives Nadal the advantage imo, but the question is will Nadal be stiff and tired after that marathon with Verdasco? Without his legs he isn't nearly the same kind of player. If Nadal doesn't show signs of fatigue he wins in 4 or 5. If he does Fed takes it. Should be a great match, and I'll be rooting for Fed to bring home his 14th major I'm just not sure if Rafa got the memo on letting him win

[uspta990770809]

didn't get the memo

Rafa definitely didn't get that memo. But he might be aware that he is somewhat compromised in his ability to defend with his normally awesome endurance. But (since he didn't get that memo), he might try something different because he is concerned about (not afraid of) possible fatigue. I'm pulling for Roger too, but I think it might be more interesting that any of us expect if Rafa decides to be more aggressive than normal and allow himself a few more unforced errors as he tries for a few more winners. He certainly is capable of hitting big shots that penetrate the court a little quicker. If I'm Uncle Tony, I'm telling Rafa to go for it more than he ever has (which would still leave him with a lot less unforced errors than anyone else). I don't think it's possible for him to let anything go so there's no point in telling him to let lopsided games go. But he might be able to turn up the meter on his aggressiveness. And he just might find he can actually play at a higher level than we have ever seen. I really don't know, but I think there is a possibility he could really be better than he even believes.

The other side is to remember the crazy recoveries we've seen over the years at the US Open when players had only 16 hours to recover instead of 24 + 16. And this is Rafa, so he may recover more than anyone else. But I think if he plays as he has so far this tournament (which looks tougher to me than he ever has), he will run out of gas if the Federer who played the last two matches shows up. If the guy who played Berdych shows up, Nadal in 3 or 4.

What do you think about the possible additional aggression from Rafa?

don brosseau

[airforce1]

Wow, the first two games were loaded with Baseline UE's from both players. Of course, most of this due to neither wanting to be the first to leave a weak ball.

It was neat to see Killer Cahill repeat the strategy I suggested of Fed needing to take Nadal out wide on the ad court side (FH), then attack back to the running BH of Nadal. It also seems in the first 2 games that Fed is using this strategy each time he has had the chance, with it leading to 2-3 of his winners so far.

By "hit away", I am referring to hitting shots away from the opponent that require them to run to retreive the ball. We all know that is nice to "hit away" from our opponents, but the point here is to make sure that you have accomplished this prior to transitioning to net. (especially against nadal) Just hitting a mid court ball with outstanding pace, where Nadal can "step & hit", just won't get it done. He will gun you down with your own pace while you are still stuck in transition! You must make him run and use that time to complete your transition to a better position.

But I'm not talking about using "hit away" all the time, in fact, quite the opposite. I feel against Rafa, it is important to hit thru middle 1/2 of the court and avoid his corner until you can be SURE to do damage. Most of his incredible counter punching patterns are started around taking weaker to avg corner placements, and exploiting your transition or coverage. I also think running is part of his stroke, and by hitting more at him so that he doesn't run into the shot, his strokes lose some of their bite.

I'm looking forward to watching more of this match from my recording.

[airforce1]

Great example of "step & hit" was the break point where Rafa went up 6-5.

Fed gets a nice short FH to attack, which he rips firmly using the 90 degree rule, pretty much hitting it straight back thru the court. Rafa only has to take a step and a half to hit this one and uses Fed's power to redirect it right past him while Fed is caught in transition. Really an easy pass for Rafa, with Fed still in No mans land.

[vmiller]

What an amazing match, but so painful to watch! Federer really seems to be letting the pressure get to him. I can't even imagine what it feels like, but if he wants to break Pete's record and actually enjoy the rest of his career, he needs to find a way to deal with it!

For anyone interested, I wrote an article about it on my blog.

http://naturalbias.com/roger-federer-health-and-perspective/

Vin

[airforce1]

What an amazing match, but so painful to watch! Federer really seems to be letting the pressure get to him. I can't even imagine what it feels like, but if he wants to break Pete's record and actually enjoy the rest of his career, he needs to find a way to deal with it!

For anyone interested, I wrote an article about it on my blog.

http://naturalbias.com/roger-federer-health-and-perspective/

Vin

I enjoyed your blog article.

[nabrug]

What an amazing match, but so painful to watch! Federer really seems to be letting the pressure get to him. I can't even imagine what it feels like, but if he wants to break Pete's record and actually enjoy the rest of his career, he needs to find a way to deal with it!

For anyone interested, I wrote an article about it on my blog.

http://naturalbias.com/roger-federer-health-and-perspective/

Vin

From your weblog: "More than anything else, I think it’s the pressure of being the game’s all time best that’s keeping him from consistently making the big shots that are necessary to beat Nadal. Furthermore, it seems to be detracting from his enjoyment of the game, and in my opinion, this is by far the most disappointing aspect of it all."

If the first part means that you think that a few years ago Federer could make better or more big shots I disagree. I think Federer did not change in his technical ability. I also don't think that the pressure is affecting his shots. Nadal is perfecting his agressive defense play. First he could only show this on the slow clay courts but now he is showing this on faster courts. So if you mean that a Federer from a few years ago would have won yesterday I disagree.

If you combine the pressure you mentioned with the second half of your phrase and come to the conclusion about the enjoyment of the game that could be a good explanation for the low shot tolerancy Federer displays lately. Do you see burn-out symptoms? You are totally right if you say that he isn't enjoying the game anymore like it once was. (At one point during his crying when the camera turned to his girlfriend I had a strange thought. I thought maybe if he had won, like Justine Henin, he would have announced his retirement of tennis. I hope it will stay a strange thought)

[stroke]

vmiller,

I really like what you said about Fed in the 5th set, something to the affect of the immense presure he had put on himself was gut wrenching and palpable. I felt the same thing. I have never seen such a great champion(and really, there has never been one such as Roger, 19 grand slam semis in a row(as Patrick McEnroe might say, "oh, come on") look so suddenly depressed and a little hopeless. It was, as you said, hard to watch. I, like so many others, really like Federer and he is a class act. It would have been much tougher to watch if he had not been playing an equally great sportsman in Nadal. I really liked what Nadal said at the award ceremony, "you must remember you are a great champion".

[airforce1]

I'm guessing that Nadal didn't have to work hard enough during the whole Oz open for that to be a major factor. I don't think he will be gassed .

All that said, there is no doubt that Nadal is in his head,
and for good reason.
He always struggles with Nadal.
Rafa just doesn't give up cheap points very often.
Fed's game usually gets him alot of those cheap forced errors from his opponent. Nadal also has developed some excellent patterns to work off shots to his corners, where his opponents just didn't do enough with it. Pulled wide, he can really use the opened angles and your pace, back against you.

I still think that this part of the prediction cuts to the chase on this match up, especially the last part.

Fed does certain things ( often by creating angles) that get a lot of cheap points from his opponents. Rafa and Murray for example, don't often give him those cheap points and return his serve well, so then he struggles in these match ups. I think this far out weights any problems with the BH match ups. He can rarely find a comfort level with this type game, so his effort becomes stressed and he presses, leading to more of his errors.

[airforce1]

vmiller,

I really like what you said about Fed in the 5th set, something to the affect of the immense presure he had put on himself was gut wrenching and palpable. I felt the same thing. I have never seen such a great champion(and really, there has never been one such as Roger, 19 grand slam semis in a row(as Patrick McEnroe might say, "oh, come on") look so suddenly depressed and a little hopeless. It was, as you said, hard to watch. I, like so many others, really like Federer and he is a class act. It would have been much tougher to watch if he had not been playing an equally great sportsman in Nadal. I really liked what Nadal said at the award ceremony, "you must remember you are a great champion".

Yes, this is very true. You could even see it to an extent right there in the first set at 5 all.

[vmiller]

If the first part means that you think that a few years ago Federer could make better or more big shots I disagree. I think Federer did not change in his technical ability. I also don't think that the pressure is affecting his shots. Nadal is perfecting his agressive defense play. First he could only show this on the slow clay courts but now he is showing this on faster courts. So if you mean that a Federer from a few years ago would have won yesterday I disagree.

I absolutely agree that Nadal's improvement is a major part of Roger's dilemna. He's forcing Roger to make amazing shots more often than what he seems comfortable with. However, the Federer from a few years ago didn't have the 14 slam barrier weighing on his shoulders. Perhaps the younger Federer would be more willing to do things differently to improve his dismal record of converting break points against Nadal.

Do you see burn-out symptoms? You are totally right if you say that he isn't enjoying the game anymore like it once was. (At one point during his crying when the camera turned to his girlfriend I had a strange thought. I thought maybe if he had won, like Justine Henin, he would have announced his retirement of tennis. I hope it will stay a strange thought)

I don't think he's burning out, but as difficult as it is to discredit Roger's motivation, I think he wants it too much. Who knows, he may burn out if it keeps going this way, but I certainly hope not. From an emotional perspective, he's the one allowing these losses to be so devastating (yeah, I know, how could he not). How much more can he handle?

I, like so many others, really like Federer and he is a class act. It would have been much tougher to watch if he had not been playing an equally great sportsman in Nadal. I really liked what Nadal said at the award ceremony, "you must remember you are a great champion".

Absolutely! These two are a really special gift to tennis! I thought it was very humble of Nadal to apologize and I think it shows how genuine and grounded he is.

[oliensis]

Watching the OZ final I was pretty pleased w/ Fed's play through 4 sets.

And I think the stats bear me out on this. Here are the stats through those 4 (I added the set-by-set stats at ausopen.org. They were missing break point stats for set #3, but I found those in an article on the web and added them in. It's possible that those are incorrect.)

NADAL FEDERER
1st Serve % 63% 52%
Aces 3 11
Double Faults 4 4
Unforced Errors 39 50
Winning % on 1st Serve 63% 75%
Winning % on 2nd Serve 46% 45%
Winners (Including Service) 45 65
Receiving Points Won 39% 44%
Break Point Conversions 42% 32%
5/12 6/19
Net Approaches 58% 71%
(15/26) . (39/55)

Total Points 146 158

I think these stats are about as positive for Fed as anyone would hope for, except for 1st serve %, where he's normally about 10 points higher or more. But, then again, Nadal is often close to 10 points higher as well on that score.

Of course, the 5th set was another matter altogether. But, weirdly, Fed should have LIKED the way the match was going, statistically speaking.

I remember watching Alex Rodriguez hit when he was going for his 500th home run (I think thats' what it was). And he went into an awful slump, not hitting a home run for something like 35 games (I'm probably wrong about the number, but you get the idea).

The combination of Nadal's play/attitude (which Federer finds impenetrable in some way), and the big #14...if those take just a hair off Fed's own attitude and reflexive genius by adding tension...well, those look to me to be what created the 5th set debacle. And then he just fell off the table.

The thing that stood out for me in the match, other than the playing, was how, when Nadal looked discouraged at times, he looked to his box. They appeared to provide him with a kind of collective strength that he needed to persevere. By contrast, in his time of trouble, Fed did not have another resource that he looked to for psychological/emotional/spiritual support. His game has always had another "gear." But Nadal's psyche has another gear...supported by his team. Perhaps Federer could look to emulate that...or is that a cultural difference...the Mediterranean culture's collectivism vs. the more northern, more restrained approach? Fed does seem to have family/group that he is very close to. But he doesn't seem to have another place to reach down into in his soul when crunch-time arrives, the way Nadal does.

All very impressionistic, this last. But, after looking at the stats from the first 4 sets, I don't think that the W or the L here was about their games: Sure Fed had to play a higher-risk game, but he did it well, under immense pressure, for 4 sets. It wasn't 'til his psyche gave out that his game gave way.