Overlooked Factors

[airforce1]

Very interesting stats in the overlooked factors piece. I love to see different ways of collecting stats on tennis. I think this in itself is the biggest Overlooked Factor, so I love seeing more stats from these guys.

But in this case, I get a different take on each of these 3 areas. It might be good to take them one at a time, or maybe even in different threads at once.

The first one deals with Fed getting more 1st ball FHs from his serve, and that Rafa wins a higher % when you do get to his BH. Yes, the stats are interesting and maybe can teach us something,
But I really feel this stat points out what most of us already knew. Roger has a better serve, and Rafa defends better, especially from the backhand side.
I don't really see anything surprising here and the stats are exactly what I would expect. Maybe the one surprise is how many points each of them lose when a return comes to their BH, but even that probably just indicates those points are the one where the returner really comes up with the goods and is able to get his teeth into a return point.
The next areas may be more interesting to discuss, but this is a good place to start.

[airforce1]

This second point was that they hit most of their GSs from 5' behind to 3' in front of the baseline.
Again I love to see all types statistics, even when they prove what we expect.
My question again though, is there a surprise in these numbers? That is a big area and right where one would expect most GS to be hit.

Seems looking at the % of "on top of" and "in front of" the baseline, contrasted with "clearly behind" the baseline would have been more telling. I expect we would confirm that Fed is hitting his avg GS closer to net than Rafa if we look at it this way.

[julian]

surface dependent

This second point was that they hit most of their GSs from 5' behind to 3' in front of the baseline.
Again I love to see all types statistics, even when they prove what we expect.
My question again though, is there a surprise in these numbers?

Seems looking at the % on top and in front of the baseline, contrasted with clearly behind the baseline would have been better. I expect would would see that Fed is playing closer to net if we look at it this way.

Statistics mentioned above are a bit surface dependent,as we know.
Spaniards stay more behind a baseline,looking for shade

[airforce1]

Statistics mentioned above are a bit surface cependent,as we know.
Spaniards stay more behind a baseline,looking for shade

You are very right about that.
I think these are based on the grass final, which is plenty interesting on it's own merits.

[airforce1]

Third, the role of Nadal’s passing shots and how they influenced Federer’s attacking

Third, the role of Nadal’s passing shots and how they influenced Federer’s attacking game.

This should prove to be the most interesting discussion. My contention is that is where Fed went wrong. He didn't let his attacking game get "influenced" at all.
He just kept doing what he always does, cause it works on everyone else.

IMO, Fed makes the mistake of busting a power TS approach shot from "on top of" or slightly inside the Baseline, then crashes towards the net looking for a weak return, often having to hit the next shot from 1st volley position. The power TS travels too fast to allow a good net position. Look in the vid in the article. Roger split steps on the svc line. He is leaving too much to be decided by the opponent and not able to cut down the angles.

That is fine for S&V, (still risky in todays game) but is too risky a play off a GS, especially against Nadal. It works often enough against most players, but not Rafa! Rafa hits a strong shot or misses, with very little in between. Roger is right to bust hard on that ball, but it is too deep to approach on Rafa. He needs to take a page from Rafa's book, bust that ball hard, then be on alert to move forward one of the next couple of balls that he punishes. Against Rafa, it takes a better opportunity to approach net.