I think Nadal Will Win Wimbledon

[robertlansdorp]

This is Robert Lansdorp. This weekend John and I were working on a new article for Tennisplayer, and inevitiably ended up discussing what is happening at Wimbledon. John asked if he could post my thoughts, so here they are:

I think Nadal is going to win Wimbledon. I think it depends a little bit on how he starts out. I think if Federer looks across the net, sees Nadal's arms and sees Nadal ripping a couple of balls past him, he is going to think "here we go again." So obviously, yes, I believe they will both be in the final.


Federer will have to play unbelievably well to beat Nadal. Mentally as well as physically playing him is different. Last year was five sets. Nadal is better than last year. He just seems so tough. He looks like he might lose a set and he doesn't lose a set.

He can just start rolling. He's so strong and hits the ball so hard and he doesn't make any errors. He can volley, he has a great slice. He can do anything. He has a great flat backhand.

It's going to be very interesting. Nadal is oozing with confidence. He beat Federer 6-0 in the last set in Paris. That has to give you so much confidence.
That has to be somewhere in the back of Federer's mind. I don't care what you tell yourself, don't worry about, just play, whatever. You lost to the guy 6-0, that's a bitch.

Now what do you guys think? Am I crazy?

[kmoranon]

same ol,same ol

Hey Robert,I think Tammy wants to thank you indirectly for giving her a tennis career ... She learnt how to hit those low simi-flat shot from Piya and I and her dad.. and off course we got it from you ..making to the quarter final at age 31 ain't too bad...
Nadal looks almost too good but I sense that his knee is going to give him up again.. R-Fed looks like he's playing in true form and his champion instincts are starting to kick in.. he might have too much pride to give this one to Nadal..
The only problem I see R-Fed not beating Nadal is that he may not reach the finals.. With Ancic and Safin in his half ,anything can happen. If those big guys have a big serving week R-Fed is in some serious trouble .

[airforce1]

Hello Robert!

As a big Federer fan (and RL fan), it hurts me to pick against him for the finals.
But I must admit that if both stay healthy, I have to go with Nadal winning this year in spite of who he plays.

I make this pick based on mainly one area since aces and service winners should not dominate this years match ups

and that area is the Mid Court Ball. (MCB)
No one on tour this year can attack, use and defend the mid ct ball like Nadal. It used to be Federer (especially on grass), but now Nadal is doing it better on all surfaces.

They both use the entire court extremely well, and hit MCBs at the correct and Ok times,

but the attack/defend matchup on MCBs now goes to Nadal against whoever he plays. He will defend Fed's attacks, much better than Fed will defend Nadal's attacks, not to mention Nadal's much greater margin of safety on most all shots reducing his UEs. Fed will have to attempt many more attacks on MCBs to finish a point successfully than will Nadal, and he will make more errors trying to finish against Nadals defense.

Federer still owns this matchup on the Mid Ct. Ball on everyone else, but Nadal has taken the all important lead in this area due to 2 superior abilities.
1. he defends the MCB better, leading to fewer FEs.
2. his margin for error when attacking a MCB is better, leading to fewer UEs

Robert, I have to ask. If this plays out as we expect, will you have to re-think your stance on more severe grips or is Nadal the exception? I have always agreed with your point on grips, so I guess we will have to get a result and not jump the gun, as Roger is clearly capable of pulling this off on a good day.

[johnyandell]

Guys,

I will be speaking to Robert probably this weekend, so if others of you have comments for him or questions, now is the time.

John

[gsheiner]

John,

A general question for Robert.

It strikes me that Nadal has massively improved his game in the past year. His backhand slice which was so weak is now a lethal weapon. His flat backhand, volleys, serve ( according to Jmac) are all better.

He is coached by his uncle who was a soccer pro. How is he managing to improve to such a great degree with a non-tennis coach while guys like Roddick with access to great coaches can't seem to improve much over years?

Is Nadal getting coaching from some other people in his camp or is he just a tennis genius who's figuring out things on his own?

Thanks,

Glenn

[lukman41985]

Nadal's coach, Uncle Toni, was not a soccer pro. His other uncle, Miguel Angel, was the soccer pro.

[gsheiner]

Thanks for the info. Is uncle Toni considered a high level coach?

[tennis_chiro]

Tough to pick against Roger, but ...

When they showed the Wimby final in the extra time they had after Rafa blew Roger up in Paris, I was reminded that Rafa really could have won Wimbledon last year. If he hadn't had the injury time out in the 4th, I don't think Roger could have recovered. He was absolutely reeling. He actually asked the ref to turn off Hawkeye. As was pointed out above, Rafa has improved a lot more than Roger in the last year. And you don't get over mono in a few months. That will matter in a long 5-setter. But Roger is playing awfully well. It should be a great match.

5 years ago, Roger was Rafa's age and had no slams to his credit. Rafa already has 4. Will we be asking Sunday night if Rafa will hold together long enough to reach Federer/Sampras totals? (TennisWeek this month).

For Roger to win, he will have to go to the net a lot more than he has in the last few years at Wimbledon. I don't think he has taken enough advantage of his opportunities to practice and develop that skill the last few years. I have to pick Rafa..., but I hope I'm wrong!

[oliensis]

Roger @ the net

The Federer/Safin match is now over, though it hasn't been shown on NBC yet...I just looked at the stats. Federer came to net 11 times, winning just 4 points...in 3 reasonably long sets. While Safin possesses great groundstrokes, I don't think they're better than Nadal's at this point.

If anything, over the past few years F's confidence in his net game has WANED! Where he used to be an all-court player, he now appears to be a baseliner with great (though perhaps increasingly erratic) mid-court putaways.

By contrast, Nadal's capacity to play all-court tennis continues to improve (along with his serve, his backhand, his more aggressive lower-trajectory forehand, etc.). It does appear that F is falling behind N's learning curve.

[airforce1]

The Federer/Safin match is now over, though it hasn't been shown on NBC yet...I just looked at the stats. Federer came to net 11 times, winning just 4 points...in 3 reasonably long sets. While Safin possesses great groundstrokes, I don't think they're better than Nadal's at this point.

If anything, over the past few years F's confidence in his net game has WANED! Where he used to be an all-court player, he now appears to be a baseliner with great (though perhaps increasingly erratic) mid-court putaways.

By contrast, Nadal's capacity to play all-court tennis continues to improve (along with his serve, his backhand, his more aggressive lower-trajectory forehand, etc.). It does appear that F is falling behind N's learning curve.

Do you agree that the Mid ct. game is where the match comes down to? Nadal seems to have surpassed Fed here, so that even while Fed is better on tough volleys, Nadal will do so much more with the MCB, (mid ct. ball) that he will face few tough volleys.

Fed's good, but increasingly erratic (as you say) MCB attacks will leave him hanging in the wind at times and making UEs at others against Nadal. And if your MCB attack is only good, that is not enough for Nadal's ability to defend.
thoughts?

[uspta146749877]

Who is a Federer's coach?

Thanks for the info. Is uncle Toni considered a high level coach?

Please click

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/tennis/wimbledon08/columns/story?columnist=harwitt_sandra&id=3473761

[robertlansdorp]

First of all, one hell of a match. Second, how bizarre to see John McEnroe kissing Federer's ass when a few years ago he was yelling at poor women just trying to make a line call.

I guess I have some old friends in San Diego to say hi to as well.

As for the questions, is Nadal the exception when it comes to the extreme grip? I would say yes.

Why? Because of his incredible ability to reverse his forehand. The video John gave me shows he can extend through the ball with his reverse finish and still get a ton of pace on those low balls. Look how long his arms are and how strong he is. Sure for that type of physical specimen his grip works. How many players are like Nadal though? I think we all know the answer to that. Very difficult to copy.

As for his coaches: Sorry but just calling yourself a tennis coach doesn't mean you know more than Uncle Toni. These people are obviously very smart. It's obvious they have studied the game. Maybe they got input from other Spanish guys or coaches we don't know about, (if so that only proves the point) but look how Rafa's game has improved. It seems they done everything right. Comapre that to Jimmy Connors impact on Roddick--not even close.

Nadal has developed an incredible flat backhand. His serve has improved. And his forehand is even better than before. This guy never gives up, ever. He keeps fighting no matter what. Think that has something to do with his close family relationships? It would be very hard to criticize the "coaching" Nadal has received.

[uspta146749877]

Moya advising Nadal

Thanks for the info. Is uncle Toni considered a high level coach?

Moya did mentor Nadal a lot-it was mentioned on multiple occasions.
They practiced in Mallorca,Spain

[uspta146749877]

Nadal

John,

A general question for Robert.

It strikes me that Nadal has massively improved his game in the past year. His backhand slice which was so weak is now a lethal weapon. His flat backhand, volleys, serve ( according to Jmac) are all better.

He is coached by his uncle who was a soccer pro. How is he managing to improve to such a great degree with a non-tennis coach while guys like Roddick with access to great coaches can't seem to improve much over years?

Is Nadal getting coaching from some other people in his camp or is he just a tennis genius who's figuring out things on his own?

Thanks,

Glenn

A quotation from New Your Times
Earlier this year, Federer looked slower afoot than at his peak and his signature forehand was misfiring with uncharacteristic regularity. But once he had worked his way back into the match Sunday, he looked like the champion of yore, slamming aces on break points, covering the court fluidly and hitting midcourt forehand winners in bunches.

The difference was that Nadal, already Federer’s master on clay, has risen to join him on grass, and perhaps very soon on hardcourts, too. At the urging of Toni Nadal, the left-handed Nadal improved his serve, adding pace and variety to what was once considered a weakness. He also moved closer to the baseline, adjusting his technique in order to strike the ball earlier and deprive his opponent of precious time by lowering the trajectory of his wickedly spinning forehand.

His one-handed slice backhand also improved, and his standard two-handed backhand has remained an underrated strength. Federer has called it “a second forehand” because Nadal, who plays golf and throws right-handed, can use his strong right hand to support his left on the stroke.

[gsheiner]

I agree that the Nadal camp has done a fantastic job.

Can anyone else recall a player who improved his game so noticeably while in the top 2 in the world?

I can only recall Borg who also beefed up his serve and his volleys noticeably.