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I thought this might prove interesting for those that didn't get a chance to read it. Several people said they liked the analysis, so I'm re-posting it for thoughts prior to French 2008 final. This one was a post-match analysis, from 2005, the first time Roger and Rafa played on the dirt in a grand slam. I'd love to hear thoughts on how things might have changed over the past few years. Thoughts on whether these advantages and disadvantages have changed, decreased or increased? Thoughts about tactical issues this time around? Oh yea, and who's gonna win??????
2005 FRENCH OPEN ANALYSIS OF ROGER AND RAFA--well, RAFA AND ROGER!
First I am truly depressed at Federer’s performance and give all credit to Nadal for being the one guy that can take Fed off his game. So, as requested, here is my take on the match. I only saw it once so there may be a few glitches but….
The Fed plan was obvious from the beginning. Roger used his inside-in forehand to get the ball to Nadal’s backhand and then tried to attack using his forehand angle. Nadal countered this effectively by the second set, using a variety of passing shots that kept Fed very off balance. One hard line, one dipping line, one hard cross, one lob…brilliant variety.
Fed tried to play crosscourt to Nadal’s backhand, and Nadal tried to play crosscourt to Federer’s backhand. Several times throughout the match, Federer tried to switch the rally by hitting his backhand down the line. Nadal hit back down the line and they got into a down the line rally. Nadal dominated a laarge majority of these rallies early and I believe Roger realized that he could not win using that tactic. He tried the slice up the line, the short slice up the line, the drive up the line …and Nadal countered all of these perfectly hitting back down the line with better pace and depth than Federer.
I found it very strange that Federer did not employ his backhand angle when Nadal hit a down the line backhand. Federer claims it is one of his favorite shots and he hit it only once in the entire match. I believe it could have stopped Nadal from hitting back down the line so often……All of this means that Federer had only a few choices off the ground. Either, he had to hit his forehand so angled that Nadal couldn’t change direction, but Nadal played many backhands up the middle to take away Federer’s angle. Or, he had to rip his backhand HARD crosscourt to punish Nadal for hitting the backhand down the line. He failed miserably on this account. I believe we saw the same thing happening over and over because Nadal forced Federer to make that shot, and Roger did not execute. MacEnroe claimed that Fed should have sliced more but the few times Federer did slice, Nadal read it so quickly that he got up on the ball and rolled a tight angle to Federer’s backhand, putting him in more jeopardy.
Now, Fed won almost 80% of his net points, but did not venture in very often. He won most of his serve and volley points, but only played those on break points. I cannot answer why but I believe it was a major tactical error. Even if he loses a couple of games on his returns, why did he not chip and charge or rip returns and come to net, just to make Nadal think about the possibility of an attack. He already lost most of Nadal’s service games so why not change it up. It seemed Roger wanted to beat a claycourter using a claycourt style.
Federer used many wide serves on the deuce side figuring Nadal would hit the ball crosscourt to Roger’s forehand so Fed could start the rally on offense. Nadal hit some brilliant returns, playing high and deep down the line, giving him time to recover and making Roger hit his backhand from a high ball, or take a high risk and play the ball on the rise, tough to do on clay.
Federer proved to be very afraid of the Nadal forehand. Nearly every time Nadal hit the backhand down the line and slightly more to the middle, Federer would run around it and hit back down the line. It was disturbing to see Federer stay away from one of his greatest weapons, the inside-out forehand. The fear of Nadal’s spin must be overwhelming for Roger.
OK so that’s how I saw the patterns. Some simple concepts…Nadal wins his forehand to backhand diagonal, the backhand to backhand rally down the line, and the nearly non-existent forehand to forehand down the line. Federer wins his forehand to backhand diagonal. Nadal leads 3-1 in baseline rallies. ADVANTAGE NADAL
Roger dominates the net, wins serve and volleys and generally goes above 50% when playing offensively. Federer chooses to stay back, rarely serve and volley, and returns defensively. ADVANTAGE NADAL
Nadal changes to Federer backhand, better than Federer changes on nearly every shot and plays nearly every defensive shot to Federer’s weaker wing. ADVANTAGE NADAL
Federer hits his kick serves down the T on the ad side to Nadal’s backhand but Nadal gets around it and uses his forehand to start the rally. Nadal serves a slice serve down the T to Federer’s backhand and Federer cannot get around it, and must start the point using his backhand. ADVANTAGE NADAL
That is the story for the last 3 sets. But I’d like to deal with what I think happened, and I’m sure there is more to the story but….
Fed came out playing lots of variety, tons of high balls and spins. He had Nadal totally off balance, and played great claycourt tennis for 5 games. Then Fed, feeling confident, resorts back to HIS GAME, and tries the power. He finishes off the set but now Nadal catches his rhythm and Fed never goes back to the variety. Nadal finds the backhand, Federer struggles, and tries to force the power game, ripping backhands crosscourt and ripping forehands all over the place. The backhand breaks down, forcing Federer to rely on his one shot, and because there is so much pressure to hit a winner, Fed makes some mistakes by overhitting, and the match goes into the tank.
A few other notes. I found it fascinating that Federer’s serving in the first set followed a theme. Hit almost everything serve the backhand and make the serve. Hit some serves to the forehand but be sure to miss them. This keeps Nadal honest but always lets Roger start on Nadal’s backhand. So, is it intentional, did he just serve poorly that day to the forehand, or is he that fearful that his serve collapses from the pressure of the Nadal forehand? I wonder. It’s not like he gets hurt by big returns if he misses first serves….hmm.
Lastly, gotta mention that 30-30 point in the 4th. That was the heart of a champion out there and awesome to see.
For Lukman who asked me to write this, please do not presume that I think I know how Roger can beat Nadal. I only write the things I see in the game. Hope it proves helpful and opens the forum for discussion. At the very least, if a few people add their thoughts, we can learn something.
CC
2005 FRENCH OPEN ANALYSIS OF ROGER AND RAFA--well, RAFA AND ROGER!
First I am truly depressed at Federer’s performance and give all credit to Nadal for being the one guy that can take Fed off his game. So, as requested, here is my take on the match. I only saw it once so there may be a few glitches but….
The Fed plan was obvious from the beginning. Roger used his inside-in forehand to get the ball to Nadal’s backhand and then tried to attack using his forehand angle. Nadal countered this effectively by the second set, using a variety of passing shots that kept Fed very off balance. One hard line, one dipping line, one hard cross, one lob…brilliant variety.
Fed tried to play crosscourt to Nadal’s backhand, and Nadal tried to play crosscourt to Federer’s backhand. Several times throughout the match, Federer tried to switch the rally by hitting his backhand down the line. Nadal hit back down the line and they got into a down the line rally. Nadal dominated a laarge majority of these rallies early and I believe Roger realized that he could not win using that tactic. He tried the slice up the line, the short slice up the line, the drive up the line …and Nadal countered all of these perfectly hitting back down the line with better pace and depth than Federer.
I found it very strange that Federer did not employ his backhand angle when Nadal hit a down the line backhand. Federer claims it is one of his favorite shots and he hit it only once in the entire match. I believe it could have stopped Nadal from hitting back down the line so often……All of this means that Federer had only a few choices off the ground. Either, he had to hit his forehand so angled that Nadal couldn’t change direction, but Nadal played many backhands up the middle to take away Federer’s angle. Or, he had to rip his backhand HARD crosscourt to punish Nadal for hitting the backhand down the line. He failed miserably on this account. I believe we saw the same thing happening over and over because Nadal forced Federer to make that shot, and Roger did not execute. MacEnroe claimed that Fed should have sliced more but the few times Federer did slice, Nadal read it so quickly that he got up on the ball and rolled a tight angle to Federer’s backhand, putting him in more jeopardy.
Now, Fed won almost 80% of his net points, but did not venture in very often. He won most of his serve and volley points, but only played those on break points. I cannot answer why but I believe it was a major tactical error. Even if he loses a couple of games on his returns, why did he not chip and charge or rip returns and come to net, just to make Nadal think about the possibility of an attack. He already lost most of Nadal’s service games so why not change it up. It seemed Roger wanted to beat a claycourter using a claycourt style.
Federer used many wide serves on the deuce side figuring Nadal would hit the ball crosscourt to Roger’s forehand so Fed could start the rally on offense. Nadal hit some brilliant returns, playing high and deep down the line, giving him time to recover and making Roger hit his backhand from a high ball, or take a high risk and play the ball on the rise, tough to do on clay.
Federer proved to be very afraid of the Nadal forehand. Nearly every time Nadal hit the backhand down the line and slightly more to the middle, Federer would run around it and hit back down the line. It was disturbing to see Federer stay away from one of his greatest weapons, the inside-out forehand. The fear of Nadal’s spin must be overwhelming for Roger.
OK so that’s how I saw the patterns. Some simple concepts…Nadal wins his forehand to backhand diagonal, the backhand to backhand rally down the line, and the nearly non-existent forehand to forehand down the line. Federer wins his forehand to backhand diagonal. Nadal leads 3-1 in baseline rallies. ADVANTAGE NADAL
Roger dominates the net, wins serve and volleys and generally goes above 50% when playing offensively. Federer chooses to stay back, rarely serve and volley, and returns defensively. ADVANTAGE NADAL
Nadal changes to Federer backhand, better than Federer changes on nearly every shot and plays nearly every defensive shot to Federer’s weaker wing. ADVANTAGE NADAL
Federer hits his kick serves down the T on the ad side to Nadal’s backhand but Nadal gets around it and uses his forehand to start the rally. Nadal serves a slice serve down the T to Federer’s backhand and Federer cannot get around it, and must start the point using his backhand. ADVANTAGE NADAL
That is the story for the last 3 sets. But I’d like to deal with what I think happened, and I’m sure there is more to the story but….
Fed came out playing lots of variety, tons of high balls and spins. He had Nadal totally off balance, and played great claycourt tennis for 5 games. Then Fed, feeling confident, resorts back to HIS GAME, and tries the power. He finishes off the set but now Nadal catches his rhythm and Fed never goes back to the variety. Nadal finds the backhand, Federer struggles, and tries to force the power game, ripping backhands crosscourt and ripping forehands all over the place. The backhand breaks down, forcing Federer to rely on his one shot, and because there is so much pressure to hit a winner, Fed makes some mistakes by overhitting, and the match goes into the tank.
A few other notes. I found it fascinating that Federer’s serving in the first set followed a theme. Hit almost everything serve the backhand and make the serve. Hit some serves to the forehand but be sure to miss them. This keeps Nadal honest but always lets Roger start on Nadal’s backhand. So, is it intentional, did he just serve poorly that day to the forehand, or is he that fearful that his serve collapses from the pressure of the Nadal forehand? I wonder. It’s not like he gets hurt by big returns if he misses first serves….hmm.
Lastly, gotta mention that 30-30 point in the 4th. That was the heart of a champion out there and awesome to see.
For Lukman who asked me to write this, please do not presume that I think I know how Roger can beat Nadal. I only write the things I see in the game. Hope it proves helpful and opens the forum for discussion. At the very least, if a few people add their thoughts, we can learn something.
CC
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