Whassup with Federer?

[oliensis]

Federer's inabilility to impose his game on Fish at Indian Wells was so incredibly at odds with what we've seen from him over a number of years that it strikes me as worth commenting on. And I'd love to hear other educated thoughts on the subject.

Fish handled Fed's serve (esp. the 2nd serve) like it was a floating bon bon. And given Fish's abysmal 1st serve % (well under 50%), Fed's inability to dictate play on Fish's 2nd serve was stunning...esp. when you consider how handily Fed deals w/ Roddick's serve (both 1st and 2nd) on both hard courts and grass.

The only thing I can see re-watching tape, is that maybe Fed doesn't really have his legs or his mind match sharp.

Granted, Fish played incredibly well, but Fed's complete lack of presence (or fight) is worth trying to break down and understand.

Thoughts?

AO

[jeffreycounts]

Federer's inabilility to impose his game on Fish at Indian Wells was so incredibly at odds with what we've seen from him over a number of years that it strikes me as worth commenting on. And I'd love to hear other educated thoughts on the subject.

Fish handled Fed's serve (esp. the 2nd serve) like it was a floating bon bon. And given Fish's abysmal 1st serve % (well under 50%), Fed's inability to dictate play on Fish's 2nd serve was stunning...esp. when you consider how handily Fed deals w/ Roddick's serve (both 1st and 2nd) on both hard courts and grass.

The only thing I can see re-watching tape, is that maybe Fed doesn't really have his legs or his mind match sharp.

Granted, Fish played incredibly well, but Fed's complete lack of presence (or fight) is worth trying to break down and understand.

Thoughts?

AO

I think the general line of thought is: Mono lead to sub par performances which lead to unexpected losses which lead to a loss in confidence which lead to other player's belief that they can beat him.

Hopefully it doesn't turn into a Coria-like nightmare, but I do know that, at least in the near future, players are going to be more confident against Federer. They are going to say "If Mardy Fish and Andy Murray can beat Federer in straight sets, then I definitely have a shot." Before, players pretty much accepted defeat before the start of the match. That psychological edge is not there anymore.

The whole thing is, at least for me, sad. Roger should not be losing to Mardy Fish in straight sets, especially serving at 40% first serves.

[CraigC]

Thoughts on Fed

I sat and watched that match live and I'm thinking either Roger was abducted or there are stranger things at play. His serves were averaging bout 112 and his groundies were half the pace of his usual game. Either the illness is still there, he was simply having a very bad day, or....and I don't buy this but it is possible:
Roger is chasing the "weeks at number one" record and realized that Rafa lost in the semis after winning the event last year. This means Roger gained points this week while Rafa lost some. Now, Roger has had a terrible "08 but kept his points lead. Consequently, if he has a decent year and ends up number one, he can start "09 great and keep the ranking through the entire year. Like I said, it's a bit of a crazy theory, but who knows what one will do when chasing history.

[brett701]

I think the general line of thought is: Mono lead to sub par performances which lead to unexpected losses which lead to a loss in confidence which lead to other player's belief that they can beat him.

Hopefully it doesn't turn into a Coria-like nightmare, but I do know that, at least in the near future, players are going to be more confident against Federer. They are going to say "If Mardy Fish and Andy Murray can beat Federer in straight sets, then I definitely have a shot." Before, players pretty much accepted defeat before the start of the match. That psychological edge is not there anymore.

The whole thing is, at least for me, sad. Roger should not be losing to Mardy Fish in straight sets, especially serving at 40% first serves.

i agree 100%.

Have you ever heard of the guy that ran a mile in less than 4 minutes? Well the story goes, that it has never been done, but he knew that he could and he had a belief that he could do this. And within that same year, nearly 1000 other people broke the record in the same year because they believed it was possible. I think this is clashing with his sickness, and weakened mental state.

[crosscourt]

I guess that what is slightly surprising about the illness point is that he looks fine crushing mahut one day but the next there seems to be nothing there. Maybe that's the way the virus or its after effects work.

Add to the combination of factors that Fish played very well at IW. It wasn't just Federer who was made to look at sixes and sevens with his game. Nalbandian was, and Djokovic was at times.

And add the fact that some of the guys are starting to work out how to get on to Federer's backhand. Tipsarevic did it at the AO -- take the ball early and stop Federer from running round his backhand as much as he likes to. Taking that run around away from Federer will eat at his self-belief.

[jeffreycounts]

i agree 100%.

Have you ever heard of the guy that ran a mile in less than 4 minutes? Well the story goes, that it has never been done, but he knew that he could and he had a belief that he could do this. And within that same year, nearly 1000 other people broke the record in the same year because they believed it was possible. I think this is clashing with his sickness, and weakened mental state.

Exactly! I read that too before about the under 4 minute mile, and it's an amazing testament to the power of belief. Here is an article on it:

http://www.sptimes.com/News/121799/Sports/Bannister_stuns_world.shtml

[kmoranon]

come on guys the 4 miles stuff is way off here ,this is like Tiger Woods stuff... or not... Fed just need a coach to keep him a bit more focus... the top level of any pro sports are only defined by a very fine thin line,if one losses that edge,things goes very bad...Fed couldn't even return Fish's second serve...Just like Tiger this past weekend,when those greats cannot raise their level of play or something is out of wack those greats are just like everyone else,they don't win...

[airforce1]

come on guys, it's all these things.

Like Agassi though, Fed will be back!

[maahou]

Hi,

Federer played just after Djokovic's win, maybe he thought he was not yet enough prepared to face djokovic . It would have given too much confidence to djokovic if this guy won.

So, he just let the wind blows to come back later .

[jeffreycounts]

come on guys the 4 miles stuff is way off here ,this is like Tiger Woods stuff... or not... Fed just need a coach to keep him a bit more focus... the top level of any pro sports are only defined by a very fine thin line,if one losses that edge,things goes very bad...Fed couldn't even return Fish's second serve...Just like Tiger this past weekend,when those greats cannot raise their level of play or something is out of wack those greats are just like everyone else,they don't win...

I know it sounds far fetched, but Federer was completely unbeatable for about five years. Now that barrier has been broken and I think it opens up possibilities that just weren't there before. I'm not saying Federer is done - I think he will get his timing back and will remain at the top of the sport. But I guarantee that Djokovic, for example, has no doubt in his mind that he can beat Roger, and that attitude really makes a huge difference.

Roger is still the greatest player I've ever seen, and he remains more talented with more weapons and more brilliance than anyone out there. But that psychological edge of pure, brutal dominance is definitely gone.

[uspta146749877]

Roddick vs Federer

I know it sounds far fetched, but Federer was completely unbeatable for about five years. Now that barrier has been broken and I think it opens up possibilities that just weren't there before. I'm not saying Federer is done - I think he will get his timing back and will remain at the top of the sport. But I guarantee that Djokovic, for example, has no doubt in his mind that he can beat Roger, and that attitude really makes a huge difference.

Roger is still the greatest player I've ever seen, and he remains more talented with more weapons and more brilliance than anyone out there. But that psychological edge of pure, brutal dominance is definitely gone.

Roddick improves career record vs. Federer to 2-15
Please click

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/tennis/news/story?id=3328424

Rodick was analysed by the Federer's camp couple months
ago as:
1.a one-dimensional player (maybe two-dimensional)
2.without backhand
3.very limited in a middle of a court
Is it still true?

[jeffreycounts]

Roddick improves career record vs. Federer to 2-15
Please click

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/tennis/news/story?id=3328424

Rodick was analysed by the Federer's camp couple months
ago as:
1.a one-dimensional player (maybe two-dimensional)
2.without backhand
3.very limited in a middle of a court
Is it still true?

That's funny. Roddick's backhand has improved and he did well at the net today - winning some big points.

[oliensis]

Fed/Roddick

Was looking at the stats from the match last night. It was incredibly tight until Fed had a complete brain cramp serving at 3-4 in the 3rd. Roddick served lights out the whole match, was 9 for 27 winning points on forays to the net, had 1 break point the whole match (Fed had 3). Roddick won 4 more points than Fed...those 4 points in the 3-4 service game.

Fed was +24 on winners-to-errors (including serves). Roddick was +17. Very high level of tennis. W/out the service winners, Fed was +14 and Roddick was -9.

So the match boiled down to Roddick's fantastic serving and Fed's brain cramp under pressure in one game.

Props to Roddick for his play. Federer does seem to be suffering more mentally at the moment than physically, at least judging by the stats.

[uspta146749877]

a coss court approach

That's funny. Roddick's backhand has improved and he did well at the net today - winning some big points.

I forgot - Roddick was criticized for a cross court net approach-
i.e for hitting cross court when appriching a net
as opposite of hitting line

[uspta146749877]

a new coach?

I sat and watched that match live and I'm thinking either Roger was abducted or there are stranger things at play. His serves were averaging bout 112 and his groundies were half the pace of his usual game. Either the illness is still there, he was simply having a very bad day, or....and I don't buy this but it is possible:
Roger is chasing the "weeks at number one" record and realized that Rafa lost in the semis after winning the event last year. This means Roger gained points this week while Rafa lost some. Now, Roger has had a terrible "08 but kept his points lead. Consequently, if he has a decent year and ends up number one, he can start "09 great and keep the ranking through the entire year. Like I said, it's a bit of a crazy theory, but who knows what one will do when chasing history.

CraigC,
do u think the new coach Jose Higueras will help significantly
in a short run?