End of Fed's dominance?

[airforce1]

Patrick McEnroe is on ESPN saying he thinks Federer won't dominate this year based on the early 08 results.

Well he may be right, but my guess is he has fallen for false signs. Roger was sick and unable to get good prep for the Aussie Open, but went very deep in spite of everything. He only lost to the eventual winner and hottest young player on tour.
Losing to Murry, #11 in the world and a player (that has beaten him before if I remember right), is not too surprising either. I don't know why he's meeting #11 in the first round, but losing that with so few healthy matches under his belt is not that surprising, especially given it's a smaller event.

My guess is we will see Fed get real serious and go on a big tear, assuming he is healthy again. Nadal and the Joker will continue to challenge him, but I think few others can catch up this year.
Anyone think his decline has set in?

[jeffreycounts]

Patrick McEnroe is on ESPN saying he thinks Federer won't dominate this year based on the early 08 results.

Well he may be right, but my guess is he has fallen for false signs. Roger was sick and unable to get good prep for the Aussie Open, but went very deep in spite of everything. He only lost to the eventual winner and hottest young player on tour.
Losing to Murry, #11 in the world and a player (that has beaten him before if I remember right), is not too surprising either. I don't know why he's meeting #11 in the first round, but losing that with so few healthy matches under his belt is not that surprising, especially given it's a smaller event.

My guess is we will see Fed get real serious and go on a big tear, assuming he is healthy again. Nadal and the Joker will continue to challenge him, but I think few others can catch up this year.
Anyone think his decline has set in?

I think he is in a bit of trouble now with the clay court season coming up. I think he should stop playing exhibitions with Sampras and start training - his intimidation factor has definitely dropped - and his nasty comments after the Murray match make me think he is coming a bit unglued.

I hope he can win at least the US Open or Wimbledon this year so he is in striking distance of the Sampras record. I think it would be a tremendous disappointment if he couldn't win at least one Slam, but I think it is a possibility based on early 08 results. Hopefully I am wrong on that though.

[lukman41985]

Jeff--do you have a link to those ugly comments post-Murray match?

Here's what I've seen, and it's not ugly:

``My expectations are not sky-high at this point,'' said Federer, who was playing for the first time since losing to Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open semifinals Jan. 25. ``Obviously, I haven't played much so you don't go in with any expectations, actually. You hope to get past the first round, no matter if it's a guy with no ranking or a guy ranked basically in the top 10.''

After winning his 12th Grand Slam title at last year's U.S. Open, Federer lost to David Nalbandian in the Madrid Masters final. The Swiss star then won the Swiss Indoors, but lost to Nalbandian in the third round of the Paris Masters and followed that with a round robin loss to Fernando Gonzalez in his opening match at the ATP Masters Cup, which Federer eventually won.

On Monday, Federer said he felt rusty.

``Missing forehands by two or three meters - it's just not possible,'' Federer said. ``I gave him the mistakes today.''

Playing Murray, who is ranked 11th in the world and beat Federer at the Cincinnati Masters two years ago, in the first round didn't make things any easier on Federer.

``It was always going to be a tough draw. I knew that from the start,'' Federer said. ``He's played many matches already this season whereas obviously I come in a little bit cold.

``Of course, I wish I would have maybe had a little bit easier draw, but under the circumstances I felt I played OK. It wasn't a bad match, which is the only positive thing out of tonight.''

From: http://www.tennis.com/news/news.aspx?id=120852

[moderntennis]

Classless comments by a man who does seem to be coming unglued as per Jeff http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/spo...cle3478868.ece

[jeffreycounts]

Classless comments by a man who does seem to be coming unglued as per Jeff http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/spo...cle3478868.ece

Interesting read - including people's comments at the end of the article. Federer's forehand was off against Murray and it was off in his loss at the Australian. That stroke seems, to me at least, to play a major role in his domination of the sport and in his recent losses.

The timesonlinearticle was right on in saying that Federer's comments made no logical sense. If Murray is a one dimensional player who stands too far behind the baseline, then why do you keep losing to him? And wait till clay court season when Nadal stands ten feet behind the baseline and wins every tournament out there, including the French.

It is going to be fascinating to see what happens to Federer this year. I really expected him to come out in 08 and win at least three slams. This is an interesting turn of events, to say the least.

[uspta146749877]

Federe's quotes in Guardian

Classless comments by a man who does seem to be coming unglued as per Jeff http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/spo...cle3478868.ece

Very similar by Guardian
'Murray is going to have to grind it very hard in the next few years if he is going to play this way'

Staff and agencies
Tuesday March 4, 2008
guardian.co.uk






Roger Federer has criticised Andy Murray's tactics during the Scot's victory over the world No1 in Dubai yesterday, and questioned whether Murray is progressing as a player.
Murray knocked Federer out of the Dubai Championships in yesterday's opening round, but Federer today said he was unimpressed by Murray's lack of attacking intent, and does not believe that the British No1 has developed since they first crossed paths in the final of the 2005 Thailand Open.

[uspta146749877]

surface in Dubai?

I think he is in a bit of trouble now with the clay court season coming up. I think he should stop playing exhibitions with Sampras and start training - his intimidation factor has definitely dropped - and his nasty comments after the Murray match make me think he is coming a bit unglued.

I hope he can win at least the US Open or Wimbledon this year so he is in striking distance of the Sampras record. I think it would be a tremendous disappointment if he couldn't win at least one Slam, but I think it is a possibility based on early 08 results. Hopefully I am wrong on that though.

What kind of hard surface are courts in Dubai?
julian

[uspta146749877]

Elementary,Watson,elementary!

Patrick McEnroe is on ESPN saying he thinks Federer won't dominate this year based on the early 08 results.

Well he may be right, but my guess is he has fallen for false signs. Roger was sick and unable to get good prep for the Aussie Open, but went very deep in spite of everything. He only lost to the eventual winner and hottest young player on tour.
Losing to Murry, #11 in the world and a player (that has beaten him before if I remember right), is not too surprising either. I don't know why he's meeting #11 in the first round, but losing that with so few healthy matches under his belt is not that surprising, especially given it's a smaller event.

My guess is we will see Fed get real serious and go on a big tear, assuming he is healthy again. Nadal and the Joker will continue to challenge him, but I think few others can catch up this year.
Anyone think his decline has set in?

AF1,
Federer met Murray in the first round because
the main draw has only 32 players
see

http://www.atptennis.com/en/common/TrackIt.asp?file=http://www.atptennis.atponline.net/1/posting/2008/495/mds.pdf

ONLY 8 of them were seeded - almost everybody from the top 10 played
overthere so Murray was unlucky enough to get Federer in the first round.
It is called the luck of Scottish.

[uspta146749877]

serve of Murray

Interesting read - including people's comments at the end of the article. Federer's forehand was off against Murray and it was off in his loss at the Australian. That stroke seems, to me at least, to play a major role in his domination of the sport and in his recent losses.

The timesonlinearticle was right on in saying that Federer's comments made no logical sense. If Murray is a one dimensional player who stands too far behind the baseline, then why do you keep losing to him? And wait till clay court season when Nadal stands ten feet behind the baseline and wins every tournament out there, including the French.

It is going to be fascinating to see what happens to Federer this year. I really expected him to come out in 08 and win at least three slams. This is an interesting turn of events, to say the least.

One of points was that that the serve of Murray was very dependable.
It was NOT true for his opponent.
So it was NOT only forehand,was it?
Maybe you could comment about the following URL

http://www.revolutionarytennis.com/download/rebuttalservebradenmurray.pdf

[jeffreycounts]

One of points was that that the serve of Murray was very dependable.
It was NOT true for his opponent.
So it was NOT only forehand,was it?
Maybe you could comment about the following URL
http://www.revolutionarytennis.com/d...adenmurray.pdf

I just said that his forehand played a role in his loss - based on Federer's own comments after the match. And I was really struck at how many forehands he shanked in his Australian Open match. But I didn't say it was the only reason for his loss. As for revolutionarytennis.com, I am not a fan of that site so I have no comments on that.

[jayfro]

Agreed, when he loses most of his matches it's because he dictates with the forehand but misses many of them. My thought was that the activity of the wrist with that shot causes him to misfire so frequently on his off days. Granted his off days have never been very frequent, but against counterpunchers it really seems to be an issue for him.

[airforce1]

So it looks like I'm alone in believing he will get some matches under his belt and make this a minor footnote to the year?

Still I think the challengers will come strong, but in a way, that even helps his bid to stay #1. As the challengers beat each other up along the way, it makes it even harder for one to emerge on a regular basis and score enough points to catch Fed.

I'm guessing that Fed will still win more often than any other one player, thus maintain his spot at the top. I expect he will improve his Masters series (whatever they call it this year) results. His strength on all surfaces makes him a threat to bank points all year around as well, just like Nadal and Joker.

Could be interesting at the US Open if everything falls as expect now.
Nadal at the French, Fed at Wimby, with Joker having locked the Aussie Open.
Could come down to the Joker or Fed at the US Open, with Nadal always lurking as a large threat even there!

[stroke]

This is certainly going to be a very interesting year in tennis. I agree with Jeff in that I was somewhat surprised(and a little disappointed) by Roger's comments about Murray's game, after his loss to him. On a postive note, I really liked Murray's response to Roger's thoughts when he was asked about it. I also feel that now would be a good time for Roger to discontinue his very profitable "exibitions" with Pete. Roger has always had a real sense of tennis history, and he needs to surpass Pete's 14 GS titles to put himself where he wants to be in history. Now is the time to finish the job. Roger was so close to winning the French the last 2 years, but it certainly looks like that window has closed. Wimbledon will be huge for him this year.

[oliensis]

Fed has Mono

NY Times reports today that Federer has had mono since December, which could contribute to the apparent falling off of some of his skills. Also, that he did not intend to dis Murray by his comments, thought M was among the most talented of the new crop of players. Also said, roughly, "heck, how could I disparage him when he beat me?"

[airforce1]

If you go back and look at Fed's quotes over the years, they have always been a tad odd, but I always figured it was due to English being his second language. Don't think A-rod could have gotten away with the same comments.
Everyone seemed to just give him a pass in the past on it, so guessed this was because he was such a great champ and his actions seemed more humble than his quotes. I guess his frustrated answers after a loss came under more scrutiny.

If this mono thing is factual, it explains much about his play and frustrations of late. It can be a game killer and a long tough recovery.