Barcelona, Munich

[jimlosaltos]

Zverev had a tough comeback win over Tallon Griekspoor (who somewhat quietly has one of the best forehands on the tour) in Munich.
Ben Shelton looms.

de Minaur broke Alcaraz early, but from then on the Spaniard cruised in a stylish match.

Tsitsipas retired vs Fils with an apparent recurrent of a back injury. Sounds threatening

Ruud over Rune. No word if Holger behaved.

[neilchok]

I think I saw Rune's mom there. Sometimes I guess the parents do help.

[jimlosaltos]

Two interesting finals coming up tomorrow/ Sunday.

Munich; Zverev vs Shelton. I'm surprised they've only met once before, with the German winning a tough match, from down a set and needing a second set tiebreak.
I suspect the clay favors Zverev, and Ben's left serve is unlikely to dent Zverev's backhand.

Barcelona: Alcaraz vs Rune. Tomorrow's Barcelona final features Carlos Alcaraz, the only player on tour to have won even 9 games in a row this year {How can that be true? But who am I to question the ATP's stats?} vs a suddenly resurgent Holger Rune. Rune beat Alcaraz by retirement during the Dane's break out run to the Paris/ Bercy title in 2022, but Spainaird leads 2-1 overall, most recently a straight sets win in the 2023 Wimbledon quarterfinals.

Rune got here by overcoming arch-nemesis Casper Ruud, who held a 6-1 H2H edge. But Rune easily topped his Norwegian rival this week. Ruud is trying to change his game from playing defense behind some of the biggest topspin on tour, to being more offensive. That's been going well but played right into the younger Rune's hands. Rune is frequently impatient, leading to going for winners from losing positions. But he fed off Ruud pace, repeatedly going for winners early and hitting a number of blistering, down-the-line backhands.

[stroke]

Zverev and Alcaraz are both strong favorites with both having an implied probability of winning at about 83%.

[stroke]

Zverev really locked in, up 6-2, 4-3 and serving.

[jimlosaltos]

Rune with huge title win over Alcaraz on clay. Has to put him in the discussion for the French.

Rune went bold on the first set breaker and took it. Both players earned 5 breakers, but Rune converted 3, Carlos just one.

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[jimlosaltos]

Zverev with solid win over Ben Shelton. Never faced a break point.

While you might expect that on clay, the difference on serve stands out. When does Ben get the results one would think his service merits?

While first-serve won % differential is perhaps exaggerated because Zverev is an excellent returner and Ben, to be mild, is not. Still 89% vs 72% for the German.

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[stroke]

Rune with huge title win over Alcaraz on clay. Has to put him in the discussion for the French.

Rune went bold on the first set breaker and took it. Both players earned 5 breakers, but Rune converted 3, Carlos just one.

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Certainly the biggest win for Rune in a while. Did not see that coming. Zverev played as good as I have ever seen him. His winners to errors for the match was top shelf.