About Fonseca's Forehand & ATP Forehand stats

[jimlosaltos]

A few globs of data release from the ATP.

First, about Joao's much ballyhooed (including by me) forehand. His stats are just about tour average. As the ATP explains, he runs hot and cold. Two graphics

ATP: The ATP has an explanation in "Why Fonseca's ferocious forehand is a shot to fear". "Joao Fonseca's forehand quality is in the middle of the pack according to statistics. But dig deeper, and you will find a stroke with incredible potential. What is scary for the rest of the ATP Tour is that according to TDI data, all signs point towards the shot being on the ascendancy.

"... Since Fonseca has only played eight ATP Tour matches in 2025, his data set is relatively small. However, in those matches, his overall forehand shot quality has been right on the Tour average: 7.5. So why is the stroke one to be feared? ... His forehand shot speed on average is 81 miles per hour compared to the Tour average of 76 mph, and his spin rate of 3,019 rotations per minute is well above the Tour average of 2,844 rpm. Considering only topspin forehands, Fonseca averages 84 miles per hour and 3,034 rotations per minute.

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Most recent ATP/TDi forehand stats. Key: Blue top 5 ave speed, red top 5 ave spin, yellow top 10 ATP point ranking. See Ar-TOUR Fils atop what the Boston Consulting Group calls the "Golden Quadrant"


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ATP/TDI stats from Miami match this week vs Tien.

[jimlosaltos]

Here is a graphic of a whole flock of ATP players' forehand MPHs and RPMs.
Problem is there are so many names you need a key by initials. So, if you're interested, I'll try to upload both.

Update: This graphics has forehand data for 127 Players with 10 MD matches (min) across ATP 250's, 500's, 1000's & Tour Finals. Forehand Top Spin Groundstrokes, no returns, no volleys

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[stroke]

5 players hitting with more spin than Nadal it seems. And Jim, your numbers on the Fonseca forehand certainly confirm what we are all seeing. There is no substitute for top tier rpm's on the forehand.

[arturohernandez]

5 players hitting with more spin than Nadal it seems. And Jim, your numbers on the Fonseca forehand certainly confirm what we are all seeing. There is no substitute for top tier rpm's on the forehand.

I hear John's voice or at least his writing. Before we get too excited about another young prospect.

I remember John's article on the 25 forehands that Federer hit.

https://www.tennisplayer.net/members/avancedtennis/john_yandell/evolution_modern_forehand/evolution_modern_forehand_part1/roger_federer_evolution_modern_forehand_part1.html

Variations of spin, speed, depth that allowed Fed to handle so many different types of balls.
There is also the work by Lansdorp. His motto was to teach people to hit a ball that skids at them. He was flexible enough to recognize that his orthodoxy would not allow players to adapt to the circumstances. Below is an article of his on the reverse forehand. He went from hating it to teaching players to use it.

https://www.tennisplayer.net/members/famouscoach/robert_lansdorp/lansdorp_reverse_forehand_revisited/lansdorp_reverse_forehand_revisited.html

Fonseca seems to have more extreme grips so I wonder how he will do when someone figures out what he doesn't like. Can he generate all those RPMs on a very low chip? Or does he have to switch like Tiafoe (or Andreeva) does to a different grip for low balls?

Forehands look great until they don’t.

Fonseca may hit lights out. But will he do it against a flat hitter like Medvedev or against Sinner and Alcaraz. To reach that level he has to have flexibility in the shot. Based on so many modern players these days that flame out, my guess is that his shots will be great but in very specific circumstances, balls hit high. Once the spin and height start to vary it might not be so pretty.

I wonder what John would say…

[jimlosaltos]

I hear John's voice or at least his writing. Before we get too excited about another young prospect.

I remember John's article on the 25 forehands that Federer hit.

https://www.tennisplayer.net/members/avancedtennis/john_yandell/evolution_modern_forehand/evolution_modern_forehand_part1/roger_federer_evolution_modern_forehand_part1.html

Variations of spin, speed, depth that allowed Fed to handle so many different types of balls.
There is also the work by Lansdorp. His motto was to teach people to hit a ball that skids at them. He was flexible enough to recognize that his orthodoxy would not allow players to adapt to the circumstances. Below is an article of his on the reverse forehand. He went from hating it to teaching players to use it.

https://www.tennisplayer.net/members/famouscoach/robert_lansdorp/lansdorp_reverse_forehand_revisited/lansdorp_reverse_forehand_revisited.html

Fonseca seems to have more extreme grips so I wonder how he will do when someone figures out what he doesn't like. Can he generate all those RPMs on a very low chip? Or does he have to switch like Tiafoe (or Andreeva) does to a different grip for low balls?

Forehands look great until they don’t.

Fonseca may hit lights out. But will he do it against a flat hitter like Medvedev or against Sinner and Alcaraz. To reach that level he has to have flexibility in the shot. Based on so many modern players these days that flame out, my guess is that his shots will be great but in very specific circumstances, balls hit high. Once the spin and height start to vary it might not be so pretty.

I wonder what John would say…

Good articles! Thanks for digging them out.

Yes, going through the tour once is a bit like a baseball pitcher doing well the first time through the lineup. But what happens when he faces batters after they've seen his stuff?

A positive sign, when Fonseca won the NexGen title, he ran into a couple of matches ( Tien, Menisci perhaps?) where opponents were handling his cross court forehand, so Fonseca changed tactics, went heavy up the middle and pushed both back and into errors. So, the 18 yo has some flexibility already. Plus, he's got that inside-out backhand to break out of "the box".

[arturohernandez]

Good articles! Thanks for digging them out.

Yes, going through the tour once is a bit like a baseball pitcher doing well the first time through the lineup. But what happens when he faces batters after they've seen his stuff?

A positive sign, when Fonseca won the NexGen title, he ran into a couple of matches ( Tien, Menisci perhaps?) where opponents were handling his cross court forehand, so Fonseca changed tactics, went heavy up the middle and pushed both back and into errors. So, the 18 yo has some flexibility already. Plus, he's got that inside-out backhand to break out of "the box".

It will be interesting to see. I was watching Fils and thinking the same thing. What happens when someone comes along that hits differently. Almost anyone who gets the top, has some variation or will have to develop it to stay there.

It seems like we might be entering a different era where no one player dominates like before. I just don't see Sinner or Alcaraz dominating like the Big 3. It might be back to the normal pattern we had seen before the Big 3 came on board.