BNP Paribas Open aka Indian Wells

[stotty]

How did Jack Draper beat Carlos? I don't think anyone saw a Draper - Rune final as even a remote possibility. I'm looking forward to this final.

I saw the first set, lasting just 23 minutes, which was woeful from Carlos...so many errors. I still thought Carlos would right the ship but woke the next morning to find Jack had pulled off the win.

[stroke]

I saw the first set, lasting just 23 minutes, which was woeful from Carlos...so many errors. I still thought Carlos would right the ship but woke the next morning to find Jack had pulled off the win.

Very disjointed match. Carlos not doubt a future HOFer, but I could not help but think that 1st set would have never ever happened to Fed or Rafa. Draper is the favorite vs the
resurgent Rude with an implied winning probability of just over 64%.

[jeffreycounts]

With Sinner gone this was a golden opportunity for Carlos. It may have happened to Fed or Djokovic early in their careers. Definitely not to Rafa though. It's hard to follow up a big with with another one. I hope Draper can do it though.

[stroke]

Draper worked him over.

[stotty]

Draper clobbers Rune with a serving masterclass. He used a tactic I wasn't expecting, hitting into Rune's forehand with his heavy topspin inside out forehand. Rune just couldn't cope with it and it broke his down game down completely. Draper played an errant last couple of games but it made no difference as Rune's game had collapsed by that point. Great win for Draper...in the biggest win of his career so far.

[jeffreycounts]

How about Andreeva beating the number 1 and 2 seeds back to back at 17 years old. That's insane.

[jimlosaltos]

How about Andreeva beating the number 1 and 2 seeds back to back at 17 years old. That's insane.

Absolutely. Mirra has 5 wins over the top two players now.

Watched one shot by her close up and knew she is special. Iga hit an inside-out, heavy topspin forehand to Mirra's backhand. That's a shot that instills fear in the tour.

Mirra treated it like a rally ball, took the ball above eye level and calmly nailed it down the line, a foot or so in, outright winner.

I can count one one hand the number of players that would even try to change directions on that ball.

[jimlosaltos]

Very disjointed match. Carlos not doubt a future HOFer, but I could not help but think that 1st set would have never ever happened to Fed or Rafa. Draper is the favorite vs the
resurgent Rude with an implied winning probability of just over 64%.

Here's my theory, stroke. Carlos played multiple matches at night, and did a remarkable job playing in at times unplayable conditions. It was a cold, blustery 50-something degrees, and might have gotten down to the 40s for Mirra's match that went to midnight.

Then, when Carlos played Draper, it was sunny and, I'm guessing, in the mid 70s. Perhaps 20 degrees warmer and thus much faster ( or more accurately, less extremely slow) than at night. Plus, the Stadium 1 court reportedly plays faster than the others, so Carlos might never have gotten to practice on it in day time.

Carlos seemed late. Had trouble timing the ball.

As for Fed, I actually remember something quite similar happening to him at the Australian Open, only worse. Craig Tilley, the TD, in his infinite wisdom had Fed play a late night match, then gave him the first match up the next day vs Andreas Seppi. The Italian takes ti early and hits a flat, hardish ball that gets on people quick. Fed was gone quickly. Couldn't ever catch up to the ball.

P.S. I guarantee Tiley would never schedule Djokovic that way.

[hybridfh]

Here's my theory, stroke. Carlos played multiple matches at night, and did a remarkable job playing in at times unplayable conditions. It was a cold, blustery 50-something degrees, and might have gotten down to the 40s for Mirra's match that went to midnight.

Then, when Carlos played Draper, it was sunny and, I'm guessing, in the mid 70s. Perhaps 20 degrees warmer and thus much faster ( or more accurately, less extremely slow) than at night. Plus, the Stadium 1 court reportedly plays faster than the others, so Carlos might never have gotten to practice on it in day time.

Carlos seemed late. Had trouble timing the ball.

....

I'm sure that's all relevant but, also, Draper's 6'4", strong, lefty and hits a heavy forehand.

[stotty]

I'm sure that's all relevant but, also, Draper's 6'4", strong, lefty and hits a heavy forehand.

Good point. His whole game is a handful for anyone right now. His height, strength, forehand and weight of shot are really impressive. Rune just couldn't cope with it at all.

[jimlosaltos]

Good point. His whole game is a handful for anyone right now. His height, strength, forehand and weight of shot are really impressive. Rune just couldn't cope with it at all.

I was talking about the Alcaraz semi, but yes, Draper just overpowered Rune gong right at his forehand. It was inside out lefty forehand like, dare I saw it, Rafa?

here are two sets of stats from TDI ... and I believe in the final Draper was hitting 3,600 RPMs? Not certain.

Having the best forehand out of this group, for the fortnight at least, is remarkable.


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[stotty]

I was talking about the Alcaraz semi,
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So was I...

[jimlosaltos]

So was I...

Ah, sorry. Read too fast. I'll try to rewatch part of the Alcaraz-Draper semi. My incoming bias about seeing Draper play passively might have colored my perceptions.
He was certainly aggressive vs Rune.

Jeff Sackman has an interesting take. He says that Draper had a late growth spurt, so when he was younger he learned to play great defense. Now that habit persists and makes him tactically more like Andy Murray than the inside-out lefty forehand dominant play we say last weekend.

Here's an unusual graph from Jeff { Yes, I like infographics, perhaps too much). Of the top 25 at winning first serve points, Draper pretty low in saving break points. And a second showing that among big servers, he's as passive as Zverev ( the yellow dot just to the left of Jack's green }.

Let's hope Draper ends his troubles staying on court. Brits will love it if he does well on home court grass !

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[stroke]

Draper, per ATP shot spot data, averaged about 3300 rpm's on his forehand, which is about as heavy as it gets. He is up there with the likes of Nadal, Berrenttini, Ruud, GMP, Fils. He also really contained his errors off that side, producing the Nadal body blow effect out there.

[jimlosaltos]

Draper, per ATP shot spot data, averaged about 3300 rpm's on his forehand, which is about as heavy as it gets. He is up there with the likes of Nadal, Berrenttini, Ruud, GMP, Fils. He also really contained his errors off that side, producing the Nadal body blow effect out there.

Good point. But it gets even better in the final !

Look at these numbers, they're positively Nadal-esque. . Imagine the Brit-mania if Draper peaks in time for Wimbledon.

Jack Draper Forehand in IW (his avg.)
Speed = 77mph (74mph)
Spin = 3384rpm (3125rpm)
Shots within 1 metre of the sidelines= 30% (27%)

But look at this vs Rune in their semifinal: 3,600 RPM at 80 MPH (ave for the match, not peak) and dominated short rallies 62 to 38% and hit 51% of forehands DTL.

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