Wimbledon

[stroke]

https://www.si.com/tennis/tennis-mailbag-novak-djokovic-message-to-the-wimbledon-crowd-makes-waves

[jimlosaltos]

I missed the match but had Fritz down to win that one, mainly because of Musetti's deep court positioning, which is far from optimal for grass. Could Fritz not take advantage of that?

Watched last night. For a set-and-a-half it looked like Fritz would steamroll Musetti then, the Italian did several things.

First, his deep return position was actually an advantage. Musetti repeatedly blocks returns -- got them extremely deep, or hit chip forehands and backhands. Completely neutralized Fritz's serve. Since Fritz never serves and volleys he had no answer.

Secondly, he used tactics I recall Fed using against tall players -- moving them diagonally. Shot selection was far different but the effect was the same, Musetti made Fritz look awkward, constantly reaching, scooping up low balls, being out of position.

Third, Musetti really committed to the dropshot -- even when they weren't initially working and followed them up masterfully. I counted 5 times Musetti hit a drop shot then took Fritz's response out of the air in no-man's land and put them away, every which way. Touch lob-volley to the baseline, swinging forehand drive off a shot at shin level, etc, etc.

Finally, Musetti upped his second service after Fritz brutalized it in the opening set. Fritz has moving in and blasting returns, then Musetti did more with his second - varied spin, placement, went for more -- and Fritz's advantage there disappeared.

Graph from TheAthletic: Fritz's serve worked great all tournament, until a set and a half into their quarterfinal. The 65% won by Fritz on first serve actually overstates how well it worked, since he was at 88% in the first set.

filedata/fetch?id=104912&d=1720714554&type=thumb

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[stotty]

Watched last night. For a set-and-a-half it looked like Fritz would steamroll Musetti then, the Italian did several things.

First, his deep return position was actually an advantage. Musetti repeatedly blocks returns -- got them extremely deep, or hit chip forehands and backhands. Completely neutralized Fritz's serve. Since Fritz never serves and volleys he had no answer.

Secondly, he used tactics I recall Fed using against tall players -- moving them diagonally. Shot selection was far different but the effect was the same, Musetti made Fritz look awkward, constantly reaching, scooping up low balls, being out of position.

Third, Musetti really committed to the dropshot -- even when they weren't initially working and followed them up masterfully. I counted 5 times Musetti hit a drop shot then took Fritz's response out of the air in no-man's land and put them away, every which way. Touch lob-volley to the baseline, swinging forehand drive off a shot at shin level, etc, etc.

Finally, Musetti upped his second service after Fritz brutalized it in the opening set. Fritz has moving in and blasting returns, then Musetti did more with his second - varied spin, placement, went for more -- and Fritz's advantage there disappeared.

Graph from TheAthletic: Fritz's serve worked great all tournament, until a set and a half into their quarterfinal. The 65% won by Fritz on first serve actually overstates how well it worked, since he was at 88% in the first set.

filedata/fetch?id=104912&d=1720714554&type=thumb

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Interesting. Just goes to show how important it is to be able to serve volley and against a returner who sits deep in the court. It should be impossible to win from deep positions on grass if the opponent knows his way around the net. As McEnroe has said many times, a player doesn't even have to hit a decent volley...just drop it over the net.

[stroke]

Watched last night. For a set-and-a-half it looked like Fritz would steamroll Musetti then, the Italian did several things.

First, his deep return position was actually an advantage. Musetti repeatedly blocks returns -- got them extremely deep, or hit chip forehands and backhands. Completely neutralized Fritz's serve. Since Fritz never serves and volleys he had no answer.

Secondly, he used tactics I recall Fed using against tall players -- moving them diagonally. Shot selection was far different but the effect was the same, Musetti made Fritz look awkward, constantly reaching, scooping up low balls, being out of position.

Third, Musetti really committed to the dropshot -- even when they weren't initially working and followed them up masterfully. I counted 5 times Musetti hit a drop shot then took Fritz's response out of the air in no-man's land and put them away, every which way. Touch lob-volley to the baseline, swinging forehand drive off a shot at shin level, etc, etc.

Finally, Musetti upped his second service after Fritz brutalized it in the opening set. Fritz has moving in and blasting returns, then Musetti did more with his second - varied spin, placement, went for more -- and Fritz's advantage there disappeared.

Graph from TheAthletic: Fritz's serve worked great all tournament, until a set and a half into their quarterfinal. The 65% won by Fritz on first serve actually overstates how well it worked, since he was at 88% in the first set.

filedata/fetch?id=104912&d=1720714554&type=thumb

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That is pretty much what happened. Musetti has great hands, to me he is like Gasquet with a better forehand, and his backhand, though not Gasquet level, is very good. Musetti got very comfortable chipping back so many service returns off both sides, and even a lot of chips during rallies. The only way to take that away is to come forward and volley, or to simply hit through them. Musetti moves very well, has a high tennis IQ. It is tough to just hit through him.

[jimlosaltos]

When I first went to Wimbledon in the 70's play would often go on in drizzle or even light rain. Player's would skate around here and there but it was generally accepted that playing in drizzle was the norm. One drop of rain these days and the players are straight off. What was once accepted is now perilously dangerous it seems. It's what I most dislike about modern tennis...that it's gone all soft.

Mark Petchey, I believe it was, agreed with you stotty, said something like "Grass is slippery. Get over it."

BUT there is something new -- playing on grass, indoors, under a roof while it's raining hard.

While Wimbledon denies grass is slick when the roof(s) is/are closed during the rain and it becomes humid inside, most players apparently say it is quite bad.

AELTC denying not just whether the grass gets slick but even that it is humid inside is laughable. Given that everyone there feels the humidity.

The humidity part, of course, happens regardless of the grass -- remember Fed visibility wilting at the US Open? But humidity plus grass seems extra dangerous.

[jimlosaltos]

Unlike Fritz, Djokovic is countering Musetti's great defending and deep position by getting to the net -- 23/31 (74%) already at 3-3 in the second set. That's probably the difference in the match so far. Otherwise, Musetti is hitting more winners with fewer errors,

Djokovic vs Musetti suddenly turned into a breakfast.

Djokovic gets broken serving for the first set, Musetti breaks back, then Djoko breaks to win the first.

Now, they're 3-3 in the second after another back-to-back trade of breaks.

[stroke]

Lorenzo has played very well, particularly in the 2nd set getting to a tiebreaker, but he is down 2 sets.

[jimlosaltos]

Lorenzo has played very well, particularly in the 2nd set getting to a tiebreaker, but he is down 2 sets.

Yup. All down to Djokovic coming out of his comfort zone and going to the net a particularly-remarkable for him 56 times ( net points won 43/56 for 75%).

Off the ground, Musetti 34 winners vs 22 UFE or plus 12, while Djoko was also 34 winners but 31 UFEs, for plus 3.

[stroke]

Yup. All down to Djokovic coming out of his comfort zone and going to the net a particularly-remarkable for him 56 times ( net points won 43/56 for 75%).

Off the ground, Musetti 34 winners vs 22 UFE or plus 12, while Djoko was also 34 winners but 31 UFEs, for plus 3.

Yes Novak just seems to know how to win matches overall ha.

[stotty]

One feels if Novak were to play for another 10 years he would become an exceptionally good volleyer. He's actually learnt to bunt volleys deep and position himself slightly closer to the net. He's really improved in the forecourt.

Carlos was erratic at times against Meddy, but he could afford to be. He's head and shoulders above Meddy and I never thought for a moment that Carlos would lose that match. Meddy is like a club player at the net..so poor...the worst I have ever seen.

The final will be a good one I hope. I do think Carlos can perhaps hit heights greater than Novak, as Roger could, but over five sets, and hitting top gear at exactly the right moment, Novak's consistency will be hard to beat. Novak will be very keen to equal Roger's record of 8 titles I feel.

I will look forward to Sunday.

[jimlosaltos]

One feels if Novak were to play for another 10 years he would become an exceptionally good volleyer. He's actually learnt to bunt volleys deep and position himself slightly closer to the net. He's really improved in the forecourt.

Carlos was erratic at times against Meddy, but he could afford to be. He's head and shoulders above Meddy and I never thought for a moment that Carlos would lose that match. Meddy is like a club player at the net..so poor...the worst I have ever seen.

The final will be a good one I hope. I do think Carlos can perhaps hit heights greater than Novak, as Roger could, but over five sets, and hitting top gear at exactly the right moment, Novak's consistency will be hard to beat. Novak will be very keen to equal Roger's record of 8 titles I feel.

I will look forward to Sunday.

Indeed. I do hope Carlos brings his A game because Novak's violin playing is beginning to grate

If Carlos had Novak's personality, after he wins (if he wins) he'd act out smashing a violin and the crowd would go wild. It would be historic.

One can wish ...

[jimlosaltos]

She's "just a doubles specialist" with 2 'slam titles.

From journalist Tumaini Carayol:

Barbora Krejcikova's insane resume:

Singles:
Grand slams: QF W W QF
Career high: number 2
Other: Dubai
Titles: 8

Womens doubles:
Grand Slams: W(x2) W(x2) W(x2) W
Career high: 1
Other: WTA Finals, Olympic Gold
Titles: 18

Mixed doubles: Australian Open W(x3)

12 grand slam titles.

[stotty]

I thought the little Italian would win but Krejcikova held her nerve and outhit Paolini in the end. Krejcikova deserved it and served superbly in the final set. She was brave.

[stroke]

https://photos.app.goo.gl/bXYqK4eGPJPPqTF37

That comes out to Alcaraz at about a 55% implied probability of winning the match.

[stotty]

Carlos looking very sharp, controlled and stable so far. He's going to be right handful if he keeps this up.