Wimbledon

[jimlosaltos]

Looks as if I should get this started.

Wimbledon projected men's quarterfinals by seeding
Sinner (1) vs Medvedev (5)
Alcaraz (3) vs Ruud (8)
Rublev (6) vs Zverev (4)
Hurkacz (7) vs Djokovic (2)


On seed, world number one Jannik Sinner has to meet defending champ and world number three, Carlos Alcaraz in one semifinal. Meanwhile, Novak Djokovic despite being the second seed gets an easier first week to work back into tournament form (surprise! not), potentially meeting whichever no-flag wins between Rublev & Zverev, neither of whom has done much at Wimbledon, then seventh seed Hubi Hurckaz in the other semifinal.

Djoko was not only wearing a big brace on his surgically-repaired knee (if one can call scraping out damaged meniscus "repair") but also a sleeve on his elbow, which he had surgery on several years ago. I believe that was a bursa sac removal, which can recur, although he never confirmed that. Source: Unk

Last I heard Andy Murray had not decided on playing singles due to back surgery for a cyst, I believe, although he seemed likely to play doubles with his brother. Andy is scheduled to play Tuesday.

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[jimlosaltos]

Womens' Singles - Projected Quarter-finals by Seeding

Swiatek (1) vs Vondrousova (6)
Rybakina (4) vs Pegula (5)
Zheng (8) vs Sabalenka (3)
Paolini (7) vs Gauff (2)

The women's side is perplexing. World number one Iga Swiatek has never lived up to her ranking on Wimbledon's grass, where her long strokes are rushed and her over-reliance on kick serves is less effective. We saw an improved serve at Roland Garros. In particular, her wide slice in the deuce court, which would suit Wimby grass, was humming. Iga would meet defending champ Marketa Vondrousova in one quarter (frankly, I think Marketa a long shot to get there), and former Wimby champ Elena Rybakina in the semifinals. But Iga has never gotten beyond the quarters here, losing four years in a row to players none of whom was even in the top 20.

Meanwhile, both Rybakina and Aussie champ Aryna Sabalenka pulled out of grass tune-ups with various issues. Does this clear the way for US Open champ Coco Gauff? Coco has beaten both Rybakina and Saby, while her nemesis Iga (H2H 1-11) is on the opposite side, so they couldn't meet before the finals. Contrary arguments include Coco's inconsistent play, in losing a recent semifinal on grass to Jessica Pegula, Coco got only 49% of first serves in. Doesn't do much good to hit 125 MPH if you can't hit the box.

Iga's Wimbledon Losses
2023 QF to Elina Svitolina Ranked 76* 5-7,7-6(5) 2-6
2022 R32 Aliz? Cornet #37*4-6 2-6
2021 R16 Ons Jabeur #21* 7-51-61-6
2020 DNP
2019 R128 Viktorija Golubic Rank 81 2-6, 6-7(5)

[jimlosaltos]

Opening Betting Odds

Jannik Sinner the favorite at +170
Carlos Alcaraz +245
Novak Djokovic +335
Alexander Zverev +1,665
Hubi Hurckaz +1,935

And for the daring better Federico Coria trails the pack at +150,000 -- but think of the pay out !

[jimlosaltos]

Women's Singles Odds via BetMGM

Sabalenka +300
Iga +415
Rybakina +540
Gauff +715
Jabeur +1,275

Two surprises, to me at least, Naomi Osaka is all the way up at the 6th fav with +1,575 and 17 yo Mirra Andreeva is 10th at +2,625

Imagine if either wins it.

[jimlosaltos]

I don't think I shared this great compilation for Oleg S.

So many stats for the year, but note Sinner's hold percentage at a ridiculous 92.3%. Only Sinner and De Minaur have double-digit wins from the Top 20, and Djokovic is 0-2 vs top 10 players.

H2H vs the other top 12, only Sinner, Alcaraz, De Minaur have advantages of more than 1 game.


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[jimlosaltos]

Sir Andy to give an update on playing Wimbledon shortly per The Independent

"Murray is scheduled to play his opening match on Tuesday but still faces a race against time to be fit for what is expected to be his final Wimbledon" after back surgery for a cyst, I believe it was.

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/tennis/wimbledon-2024-draw-news-andy-murray-b2570683.html

[jimlosaltos]

About those odds, Sabalenka withdrew in his last match and apparently is still dealing with a "rare" shoulder injury.

"It's teres major," No.3 seed Sabalenka said, describing the nature of her injury. "I call it just shoulder injury. It's really a specific injury, and it's really a rare one. Probably I'm just the second or the third tennis player who injured that muscle. [It's] a very frustrating one. The most annoying thing is that I can do anything { other than serve}. I can practice, I can hit my groundstrokes. I'm struggling with serving. That's really annoying.

"You don't feel like you're injured. If you give me some weights, I'm going to go lift some weights. But if you tell me to serve, I'm going to go through pain. We did an MRI, we did everything. We did a lot of rehab, a lot of treatments."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teres_major_muscle

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Her service motion has always looked a bit painful to me. But almost all WTA players look like that to me.

[jimlosaltos]

Tremendous exchange between Lloyd Harris and Alex Michelson (who should have gotten to the net ! )

https://x.com/Wimbledon/status/1807833197222277146

[jimlosaltos]

The women's top seed, Aryna Sabalenka, withdrew with a rare shoulder injury. Sir Andy Murray has said he will announce this afternoon, after practicing, whether he can play or not. Murry had back surgery quite recently for a cyst. He is scheduled to play Tuesday in singles and is also entered in doubles with his brother. Let's hope Andy gets a chance at the one last stand he wants in front of his local crowd.

Aryna's words on the injury before she withdrew: "It's teres major," No.3 seed Sabalenka said, describing the nature of her injury. "I call it just shoulder injury. It's really a specific injury, and it's really a rare one. Probably I'm just the second or the third tennis player who injured that muscle. [It's] a very frustrating one. The most annoying thing is that I can do anything. I can practice, I can hit my groundstrokes. I'm struggling with serving. That's really annoying.


"You don't feel like you're injured. If you give me some weights, I'm going to go lift some weights. But if you tell me to serve, I'm going to go through pain. We did an MRI, we did everything. We did a lot of rehab, a lot of treatments."

Combined with the next, top seed in that section, Qinwen Zheng, losing in her first match this morning, will open up the third quarter of the women's draw. Because Saby WD'd after the draw was made a lucky loser will likely step into her slot in the draw. That might be Renata Zarazua of Mexico. Players of note in that quarter include Madison Keys, Bianca Andreescu, Marta Kostyuk, Emma Navarro, Maria Sakkari, and wild card Naomi Osaka. Heck, Emma Raduucanu is in this quarter. Remember what happened to her the last time all the seeds started falling? Wouldn't that be a hoot.


Womens' Singles - Updated Quarter-finals by Seeding

Swiatek (1) vs Vondrousova (6)
Rybakina (4) vs Pegula (5)
Zheng (8) Pavlyuchenkova (25) vs Sabalenka (3) Sakkari (9)
Paolini (7) vs Gauff (2)


So far today most matches have gone to plan in straight sets. Scores are at this link.

[jimlosaltos]

Per The Telegraph, Andy Murray will wait until the day of his first match (Tuesday) to decide whether to give it a go. A cyst was removed from his back recently. The cyst was pressing on a nerve and although he is playing practice matches, his right leg still has some numbness. He had difficulty moving to corners per Simon of TT.

Excerpt: "Andy Murray’s agonising decision over whether to attempt a singles farewell has been delayed until the day of the match itself, after he won a practice set on Monday against world No 479 Kyle Edmund.

Murray is on the schedule to play Tomas Machac, the Czech No 1, in Tuesday’s third and final match on Centre Court. On Monday night, though, his management team indicated that he was still weighing up his options.

As first reported by Telegraph Sport, Murray underwent surgery on a spinal cyst last weekend. He said on Thursday that his initial medical consultations had recommended a layoff of six to 12 weeks, yet he is seriously considering playing best-of-five-set tennis only 10 days after the operation.

“He is obviously hampered with his movement,” said Pam Shriver, the coach and TV analyst who was watching Monday’s practice session from courtside. “But he was better than I expected. If he plays he will need to have his serve help him with free points.”

And: "Every time Murray missed a backhand, which was fairly often, he yelled at himself. He found it hard to move into the corners, and even harder to move back out of them once he got there. But he served and returned respectably, which ought to get him into the points at least.

While the singles event remains in the balance, it seems likely that Murray will play the doubles, as he and his brother Jamie are another pair who have been granted a wild card. His movement will be much less exposed when he only has to cover half the court, and men’s doubles is now played over the best of three sets.

[jimlosaltos]

My pick for the "Cinderfella" of Wimbledon, 20 yo Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, pulled off his first upset today, taking out Seb Korda in five sets.

Perricard hit 51 aces. Yes - Fifty One Aces -- among 93 Winners. This is Big Bang tennis. Seb did manage to get 11 BP chances but couldn't convert a one of them.

Wimbledon didn't bother to record speeds on their court, but I dug up some stats from the ATP's Tennis Insight showing Perricard averaging -- averaging -- 138 MPH on his first serve and 128 MPH on his second service. With 10 doubles today, you can see he's all in on hitting firsts and seconds. I'll include the ATP stats since I found them in a second image. Here's the score card. This is not an aberration, Perricard hit 44 aces in 4 sets in the qualies.

Perricard is 6 ft 8 in, ranked 58, and he has a 15 yo sister who plays tennis. ITF doesn't show her height <g>.

Here is the wiki bio.

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[jimlosaltos]

Other results, defending women's champ Marketa Vondrousova, is out in the first round to unseeded Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, a 21 yo Spaniard.

Djokovic won in straight sets, as did Zverev.

Ben Shelton came back in a rain-delayed fifth set vs Bellucci

[jimlosaltos]

Sir Andy is out of singles but apparently still in doubles due to back operation last weekend.

Wimby:

“Unfortunately, despite working incredibly hard on his recovery since his operation just over a week ago, Andy has taken the very difficult decision not to play the singles this year,” the statement read. “As you can imagine, he is extremely disappointed but has confirmed that he will be playing in the doubles with Jamie and looks forward to competing at Wimbledon for the last time.”

The doubles starts later this week so giving the Scot another few days to train, practise and rehab his fragile back. It also means that the workload will be considerably lighter: he will only have half the court to cover, he will not have to serve as many times and the matches are the best-of-three sets rather than five. But it is still not the way Murray wanted it to end.

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https://www.tennis.com/news/articles/giovanni-mpetshi-perricard-51-aces-wimbledon-five-set-win-sebastian-korda